Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

Social distancing is already iffy, judgement call, not very closely watched!

I don't think it's that iffy. Sure, it's iffy in terms of people voluntarily complying as they walk around outdoors. But restaurant tables remain socially distanced. There are no close character meets. Queues are still set up for social distancing. To my knowledge, they are still only putting one party per skyliner car.

 

[Miss Bella]

The vaccines were not approved 5 months ago. What is so hard to comprehend? Last year when we had no vaccines the only way to contain Covid and limit illness and death was to restrict people interacting in public. People favored that plan. That is still true today with only 15% of the population vaccinated. In a few months we will hopefully have 70-80% of adults vaccinated. That’s where the hope comes from. That’s where the change comes from. The light at the end of the tunnel. All of my loved ones who are elderly have received the vaccine or have an appointment. That’s where the hope comes from. You are desperately trying to make this about Trump and trying to say people‘s attitudes have changed because of politics. You are missing the fact that many people took Covid very seriously so for us the vaccines are a big deal and a way out of this pandemic.

Where you get this 80% vaccination rate? I know you need the vaccine to feel safe, but not everyone feels that way. I doubt 80% are going to get the vaccine unless it's forced on them which could happen.

 

[Touchdown]

I don’t care how crazy they are and what they believe they have a right to choose not to get one and we should have the right to enjoy life normally again regardless of their decisions. That is what I’m curious about...where or when do we draw that line because something will have to give at some point. We can’t wear masks and social distance forever just because someone at WDW decided not to get a vax

Where did I say we should do this? I was just pointing out we will never get to a point where we are fully vaccinated without this.

 

[Touchdown]

I think the kooky nanobot crowd is a relatively small part of those who won't get vaccinated. A friend of mine who is a computer scientist and data analyst just doesn't believe there has been enough testing done on these vaccines and therefore won't get a shot for the foreseeable future unless it is required by his job or the Government.

Hopefully, people like him will get comfortable after a few hundred million people have had the vaccine and gone for a few months with no adverse effects.

60% want the vaccine now
20% are like your friend and hesitant
20% are Coocoo for Coco Pufs

 

[havoc315]

I don’t think it was being less than forthright, just overly conservative with a target of end of July. I like this announcement so much better. There’s a chance we don’t get there and miss the target but I’d much prefer they set an aspirational goal and shoot for achieving it then something that was almost impossible not to make.

Part of the mixed conversation is, to some degree, we are talking about different but related things:
1 -- We may have enough vaccine by end of May.... but that doesn't mean most adults will get vaccinated by end of May..
2 -- Just normal rollout, even if everything moved efficiently, final shots would likely easily extend into June....
3 -- But there are also different levels of vaccine hesitancy. Putting aside those who say they will never get it, there will be plenty of people who just aren't in ANY RUSH. A friend said to me, "I'll get it when I can walk into CVS and get it without any wait" -- These less diligent people might need some prodding to get their vaccine, potentially slowing things to June or July.. Look at Israel, their vaccine rollout has slowed significantly at about the 50% mark. It's not a vaccine shortage... just that they are now dealing with the population that is more reluctant.

By late April, early May, we should get a much better idea of our pace.

 

[correcaminos]

Almost all young people are going to be fine - long term and otherwise.
I'm not about saving all lives.
People die all over the world, everyday, everywhere.
When you see massive people waddling around WDW, or so large that they need to drive an electric vehicle - while they are simultaneously eating tremendous amounts of empty calories, does it trouble you?
That one actually troubles me.

You constantly harp once weight. Even as someone who struggled but eventually lost and kept off 85+ pounds I find this a bit odd. I really have no clue is you say this to get a rise or have some irrational fear either due to trauma, self loathing, or just flat out hate. If you are not perfectly fit and healthy it could be hypocritical too.

Your lack of compassion no matter what uncool at best. Judging others is something I try to avoid.

That said my friends struggling the most were fit and healthy prior. Your idea on who it affects is off. One is now 5 months later is able to work their job as a teacher part time.

I really hope you are trolling or this is a sad way to view life.

 

[danlb_2000]

By early summer is masks and social distancing will go away if all cases are low enough?

You are asking the wrong question. Masks and social distancing will definitely go away when cases get low enough. The question no one can answer is, when will the cases be low enough.

 

[ABQ]

You are asking the wrong question. Masks and social distancing will definitely go away when cases get low enough. The question no one can answer is, when will the cases be low enough.

All eyes will be on Texas, I assume, if they fail, then the masks will remain elsewhere for the foreseeable future.
The TX situation certainly isn't be helped by an influx of migrants who may have no ability to quarantine properly either.

After Border Patrol release, asylum-seekers test positive for Covid in Brownsville, Texas

A number of migrants seeking asylum and released by Border Patrol have tested positive to Covid-19 tests in Brownsville, Texas. Some plan to continue their journey to other cities and states.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Miss Bella]

All eyes will be on Texas, I assume, if they fail, then the masks will remain elsewhere for the foreseeable future.
The TX situation certainly isn't be helped by an influx of migrants who may have no ability to quarantine properly either.

After Border Patrol release, asylum-seekers test positive for Covid in Brownsville, Texas

A number of migrants seeking asylum and released by Border Patrol have tested positive to Covid-19 tests in Brownsville, Texas. Some plan to continue their journey to other cities and states.

www.nbcnews.com

Funny you posted that. I was just reading that story on another forum.

 

[mmascari]

Everyone will never be vaccinated unless we forcibly vaccinate, 20% of this country is anti vaccine and prefers to believe Bill gates implants microchips in every vaccine to control us.

Let's hope the final hold outs are less than that. Enough less that it doesn't allow continued widespread transmission.

I don’t care how crazy they are and what they believe they have a right to choose not to get one and we should have the right to enjoy life normally again regardless of their decisions. That is what I’m curious about...where or when do we draw that line because something will have to give at some point. We can’t wear masks and social distance forever just because someone at WDW decided not to get a vax

This is kind of root of the issue. The problem is widespread community transmission. It's a community problem, not an individual one. An individual can help contribute to reducing spread, but they cannot eliminate it on there own. It requires a community response, where enough individuals in the community help to reduce spread. We don't really want large numbers of vaccinated people constantly exposed to the virus. That's a plan to select for a mutated variant that's vaccine resistant.

Getting vaccinated is a great way an individual can help contribute to reducing spread. Bonus, it'll prevent you from dying too.

That's my sales pitch: Help your community out and you prevent yourself from dying too.

 

[DisneyCane]

They measure different things, so it depends on what you're trying to understand.

If we tested everyone in the country/state all on the same day, and had the results back immediately, the case count would go way up but the positivity would go way down. It would be both encouraging and likely disappointing at the same time.

I like to think of the case count as how much spread we know about. The raw impact of the virus that we know about, and a likely indicator of the deaths and impacts to follow. While the positivity tells us if what we know about is everything or just a partial picture. When the positivity was high, those days over 10%, we had no idea where spread was occurring. The case counts on those days were incomplete and missing information. We didn't know the entire picture or where the virus was spreading. As we identify contacts and exposures and test them, we'll drive the positivity down. We'll begin to know where the virus is, who it's spreading between, and we can effectively isolate infectious people until they're no longer infectious. If we could identify and test fast enough to drive the positivity low enough, we might know almost everyone who is infectious.

That's where watching the positivity is useful, the lower the number, the closer we are to getting community spread under control. If we get it under enough control, we'll be able to reduce cases and the case count will fall too then.

The positivity doesn't really indicate community spread, it's more like an inverse measurement of the percentage of infections are being caught by the testing.

If the positivity was 100%, there is a 0% chance that there aren't more infections that aren't being tested. If the positivity was 0%, there is close to 100% chance that there aren't any infections out there (with the caveat of a minimum number of tests).

It's not a perfect correlation but that's what it is conceptually. In a way it gives confidence to the daily case trends are representing reality.

 

[GoofGoof]

Where you get this 80% vaccination rate? I know you need the vaccine to feel safe, but not everyone feels that way. I doubt 80% are going to get the vaccine unless it's forced on them which could happen.

The latest polling is 71% have already or will take the vaccine. Another 8-9% want to wait to see if it’s safe and effective which it is so I’m counting them as well. There’s around 20% who say no vaccine no matter what. That 20% has stayed pretty constant since the Fall. The biggest changes are that more people are moving from the wait and see group to the yes group. I don’t know if we end up at 80% or something lower, but 71% are saying yes these days and that’s pretty good. That 20% is still 60M+ people so quite a large group. You are not alone in your anti-Covid vaxx position. We don’t need everyone to be vaccinated, but if we don’t get enough then a return to normal will be delayed. I doubt the vaccine will be mandated except for specific jobs and eventually maybe schools and colleges. It will likely also be required for International travel and maybe cruises with stops out of country.

I do need the vaccine to feel safe. That’s not something I am ashamed of or embarrassed by. 500,000+ Americans have died and we have 3 effective vaccines that can crush this pandemic. It‘s time to celebrate the scientific achievement and move towards a return to normal.

Two-Thirds of Americans Not Satisfied With Vaccine Rollout

In the U.S., 66% of adults are dissatisfied with how the vaccination process is going.

news.gallup.com

 

[danlb_2000]

The positivity doesn't really indicate community spread, it's more like an inverse measurement of the percentage of infections are being caught by the testing.

If the positivity was 100%, there is a 0% chance that there aren't more infections that aren't being tested. If the positivity was 0%, there is close to 100% chance that there aren't any infections out there (with the caveat of a minimum number of tests).

It's not a perfect correlation but that's what it is conceptually. In a way it gives confidence to the daily case trends are representing reality.

Yeah, this was my point in showing positivity. The new cases data has been all over the place the past few weeks due to weather problems, but the positivity isn't as sensitive to those impacts.

 

[havoc315]

You are asking the wrong question. Masks and social distancing will definitely go away when cases get low enough. The question no one can answer is, when will the cases be low enough.

And part 2 -- will the public have enough patience to wait for cases to be low enough. Or will we all be like Texas..

 

[Miss Bella]

The latest polling is 71% have already or will take the vaccine. Another 8-9% want to wait to see if it’s safe and effective which it is so I’m counting them as well. There’s around 20% who say no vaccine no matter what. That 20% has stayed pretty constant since the Fall. The biggest changes are that more people are moving from the wait and see group to the yes group. I don’t know if we end up at 80% or something lower, but 71% are saying yes these days and that’s pretty good. That 20% is still 60M+ people so quite a large group. You are not alone in your anti-Covid vaxx position. We don’t need everyone to be vaccinated, but if we don’t get enough then a return to normal will be delayed. I doubt the vaccine will be mandated except for specific jobs and eventually maybe schools and colleges. It will likely also be required for International travel and maybe cruises with stops out of country.

I do need the vaccine to feel safe. That’s not something I am ashamed of or embarrassed by. 500,000+ Americans have died and we have 3 effective vaccines that can crush this pandemic. It‘s time to celebrate the scientific achievement and move towards a return to normal.

You're basing that on polls? I'm sorry, but really polls. I guess we will find out in a few months if these polls are actually correct. It may be required for international travel, but probably not for people crossing the southern border.

 

[giantgolfer]

I do need the vaccine to feel safe. That’s not something I am ashamed of or embarrassed by. 500,000+ Americans have died and we have 3 effective vaccines that can crush this pandemic. It‘s time to celebrate the scientific achievement and move towards a return to normal.

Same here brother! By end of March my family will be fully vaccinated. A huge sigh of relief for us. Looking forward to WDW in end of June!

 

[Chi84]

The latest polling is 71% have already or will take the vaccine. Another 8-9% want to wait to see if it’s safe and effective which it is so I’m counting them as well. There’s around 20% who say no vaccine no matter what. That 20% has stayed pretty constant since the Fall. The biggest changes are that more people are moving from the wait and see group to the yes group. I don’t know if we end up at 80% or something lower, but 71% are saying yes these days and that’s pretty good. That 20% is still 60M+ people so quite a large group. You are not alone in your anti-Covid vaxx position. We don’t need everyone to be vaccinated, but if we don’t get enough then a return to normal will be delayed. I doubt the vaccine will be mandated except for specific jobs and eventually maybe schools and colleges. It will likely also be required for International travel and maybe cruises with stops out of country.

I do need the vaccine to feel safe. That’s not something I am ashamed of or embarrassed by. 500,000+ Americans have died and we have 3 effective vaccines that can crush this pandemic. It‘s time to celebrate the scientific achievement and move towards a return to normal.

Two-Thirds of Americans Not Satisfied With Vaccine Rollout

In the U.S., 66% of adults are dissatisfied with how the vaccination process is going.

news.gallup.com

It could help if the powers that be were a little more transparent about just how effective these vaccines actually are - because there's a lot of misunderstanding out there. I've encountered people who are absolutely certain that you have a good chance of getting the virus and passing it on to others despite being vaccinated; they believe that's why health officials are telling people to continue mitigation efforts. I've heard that the 95% effectiveness rate from the vaccine trials means that 5% of people who were vaccinated got sick. These are intelligent people - it's not like the guy who misunderstood the survival rate and thought Disney should be warning people that 2 out of every 100 people who ride Slinky Dog Dash will die of COVID.

 

[ABQ]

And part 2 -- will the public have enough patience to wait for cases to be low enough. Or will we all be like Texas..

You will need to define "low enough" and stick to your definition, then the public will at least have a goal. Trouble is, as happened in my state, the number was achieved and then the governor made up a new number.

 

[correcaminos]

It could help if the powers that be were a little more transparent about just how effective these vaccines actually are - because there's a lot of misunderstanding out there. I've encountered people who are absolutely certain that you have a good chance of getting the virus and passing it on to others despite being vaccinated; they believe that's why health officials are telling people to continue mitigation efforts. I've heard that the 95% effectiveness rate from the vaccine trials means that 5% of people who were vaccinated got sick. These are intelligent people - it's not like the guy who misunderstood the survival rate and thought Disney should be warning people that 2 out of every 100 people who ride Slinky Dog Dash will die of COVID.

Blame the media on this one. It's been pretty darn clear to me how effective vaccines are. I do believe some have agendas to stir up anti-vax ideas and just to promote drama and because of that people question. 95% effective is really damn good. How anyone can legitimately question that to me is baffling.

And part 2 -- will the public have enough patience to wait for cases to be low enough. Or will we all be like Texas..

My guess, and only a guess, is no. They already are showing lack of patience. The pics I've even seen of friends at Disney show this (to keep it on a Disney idea). So many pulled masks down to take pictures, both indoors and out.

 

[mmascari]

The positivity doesn't really indicate community spread, it's more like an inverse measurement of the percentage of infections are being caught by the testing.

If the positivity was 100%, there is a 0% chance that there aren't more infections that aren't being tested. If the positivity was 0%, there is close to 100% chance that there aren't any infections out there (with the caveat of a minimum number of tests).

It's not a perfect correlation but that's what it is conceptually. In a way it gives confidence to the daily case trends are representing reality.

Sorry, if I wasn't clear. Not an indication of "community spread", but of how well we "understand community spread". It's a measure of our understanding of the spread not of the spread itself.

Your example highlights it exactly, at 100%, there's clearly more infections that we don't know about. At 0%, we know about all the infections.

If we know about everyone who is infectious, we can isolate all of them and prevent them from infecting anyone else. The number of people currently infectious has always been the smallest number of people to isolate to stop spread. It's knowing who they are that's the problem.