Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Horizons '83]

Another view of the same thing here:
View attachment 536946

That slight flat line that took place does appear to be headed downward again, thankfully.
The graph above uses a 2 week average, which is better to visualize a trend, though adjusting to 5 days average, below, get a look at a nice drop, just too soon to tell if it will stick and continue downward.
View attachment 536947

We'll focus in on Texas and Mississippi in a couple weeks and see if they screw it up for the rest of us.

Which site was this from? Always looking for different places to view the data.

The Covid-19 Tracker

As the virus that causes Covid-19 spreads worldwide, this dashboard offers a snapshot of confirmed cases by geographic location. Click a country name to get a more detailed geographic breakdown at the state, province, or county level. Learn more.

www.statnews.com

This has been my favorite source since last march, clean and accurate with the ability to change views.

 

[Kevin_W]

Who knows. If you believe the variant crew the next wave is coming for sure any day now. I have no way of knowing if that’s true. I don’t think that’s definitely going to happen, but it could. Cases hit a speed bump but they started down again so it’s possible that’s a sign of a reversal of the current trend or just noise in the longer term curve. That’s why you can’t look at several days of data and jump to any conclusions. Looking at several weeks of data is always better to spot longer term trends.

I don’t think it’s a particularly good idea to remove all restrictions today but that’s a political move not a public health one. If we hold out for a few more months and get case numbers as low as possible then the full effect of the vaccinations will take less time to drive cases to near zero levels. Having a lower starting point could mean more of a return to normal earlier in the Summer. Going crazy today could unfortunately mean we have to wait until end of Summer to see restrictions gone. Hopefully that’s not the case but it’s a concern, along with the potential impact of variants. Fortunately for us on the variant front the 3 approved vaccines are highly effective vs the UK variant which is the most prevalent variant in the US. If the S African one comes here in great numbers that might mean we need a booster or 3rd shot.

Goof, I'm pretty sure this particular user is just trolling you at this point. Not that your responses aren't valid.

 

[GimpYancIent]

I hope that either one of the following happens:

1) A North American-based system is fully compatible with the EU.

2) If for some reason we choose not to implement a system here, the EU allows an opt-in for people who live outside the block.

Or necessary business only travel to the EU using a visa stamp after showing your vaccination card at the boarding point. No need to have more bureaucracy like the EU.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Or necessary business only travel to the EU using a visa stamp after showing your vaccination card at the boarding point. No need to have more bureaucracy like the EU.

Why "business only"? Some of us may have family and friends we would like to visit once everyone is vaccinated.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Why "business only"? Some of us may have family and friends we would like to visit once everyone is vaccinated.

Once everyone is vaccinated there will be no reason for vaccination passports! Will there?

 

[GhostHost1000]

I’m beginning to get optimistic masks could be lifted at WDW by the start of the 50th celebration. Too soon?

 

[Heppenheimer]

Once everyone is vaccinated there will be no reason for vaccination passports! Will there?

Because we already know that not everyone will get vaccinated.

By "everyone", I meant everyone in my traveling and visiting groups.

 

[Horizons '83]

I’m beginning to get optimistic masks could be lifted at WDW by the start of the 50th celebration. Too soon?

Probably, my personal belief is Jan 2022 for a maskless WDW.

 

[Touchdown]

Once everyone is vaccinated there will be no reason for vaccination passports! Will there?

Everyone will never be vaccinated unless we forcibly vaccinate, 20% of this country is anti vaccine and prefers to believe Bill gates implants microchips in every vaccine to control us.

 

[GhostHost1000]

Probably, my personal belief is Jan 2022 for a maskless WDW.

I thought that at first too but then that would kinda odd to change the rules just because of a calendar day/year change

 

[GimpYancIent]

I’m beginning to get optimistic masks could be lifted at WDW by the start of the 50th celebration. Too soon?

Jeez! I think a lot of people look better with them on.

 

[GhostHost1000]

Everyone will never be vaccinated unless we forcibly vaccinate, 20% of this country is anti vaccine and prefers to believe Bill gates implants microchips in every vaccine to control us.

I don’t care how crazy they are and what they believe they have a right to choose not to get one and we should have the right to enjoy life normally again regardless of their decisions. That is what I’m curious about...where or when do we draw that line because something will have to give at some point. We can’t wear masks and social distance forever just because someone at WDW decided not to get a vax

 

[Chi84]

I’m beginning to get optimistic masks could be lifted at WDW by the start of the 50th celebration. Too soon?

Not at all. No one knows, but if we're just guessing, mine is that they will be gone well before that.

 

[mmascari]

This graph is very encouraging. A lot of things can skew the new case numbers so positivity can be a much better measure, and currently it is as about as low as it has been since the start of the pandemic.

They measure different things, so it depends on what you're trying to understand.

If we tested everyone in the country/state all on the same day, and had the results back immediately, the case count would go way up but the positivity would go way down. It would be both encouraging and likely disappointing at the same time.

I like to think of the case count as how much spread we know about. The raw impact of the virus that we know about, and a likely indicator of the deaths and impacts to follow. While the positivity tells us if what we know about is everything or just a partial picture. When the positivity was high, those days over 10%, we had no idea where spread was occurring. The case counts on those days were incomplete and missing information. We didn't know the entire picture or where the virus was spreading. As we identify contacts and exposures and test them, we'll drive the positivity down. We'll begin to know where the virus is, who it's spreading between, and we can effectively isolate infectious people until they're no longer infectious. If we could identify and test fast enough to drive the positivity low enough, we might know almost everyone who is infectious.

That's where watching the positivity is useful, the lower the number, the closer we are to getting community spread under control. If we get it under enough control, we'll be able to reduce cases and the case count will fall too then.

 

[DisneyCane]

Everyone will never be vaccinated unless we forcibly vaccinate, 20% of this country is anti vaccine and prefers to believe Bill gates implants microchips in every vaccine to control us.

I think the kooky nanobot crowd is a relatively small part of those who won't get vaccinated. A friend of mine who is a computer scientist and data analyst just doesn't believe there has been enough testing done on these vaccines and therefore won't get a shot for the foreseeable future unless it is required by his job or the Government.

Hopefully, people like him will get comfortable after a few hundred million people have had the vaccine and gone for a few months with no adverse effects.

 

[DisneyFan32]

By early summer is masks and social distancing will go away if all cases are low enough?

 

[GimpYancIent]

By early summer is masks and social distancing will go away if all cases are low enough?

Social distancing is already iffy, judgement call, not very closely watched!

 

[Horizons '83]

I thought that at first too but then that would kinda odd to change the rules just because of a calendar day/year change

That is a fair point, my other guess (I have a lot of guesses!!) is whenever the CDC changes their guidelines to state masks aren't necessary, Disney will follow suit. I was hopeful that would happen in Jan of 2022 but I guess who knows?

 

[havoc315]

I hope that either one of the following happens:

1) A North American-based system is fully compatible with the EU.

2) If for some reason we choose not to implement a system here, the EU allows an opt-in for people who live outside the block.

There will be some version of opt-in. EU is too dependent on outside visitors. They aren't going to block American visitors for the next decade. But, for example, American visitors might require a Visa which will require proof of vaccination.

 

[havoc315]

Social distancing is already iffy, judgement call, not very closely watched!

I don't think it's that iffy. Sure, it's iffy in terms of people voluntarily complying as they walk around outdoors. But restaurant tables remain socially distanced. There are no close character meets. Queues are still set up for social distancing. To my knowledge, they are still only putting one party per skyliner car.