Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[CatesMom]

Liberal think tank? Have you read a post by @CaptainAmerica?

Or @DisneyCane? Or even @GoofGoof these days? Or any of the many other thoughtful posters who guide the rest of us with practical and data-driven metrics as opposed to self-righteous outrage?

 

[ABQ]

This graph is very encouraging. A lot of things can skew the new case numbers so positivity can be a much better measure, and currently it is as about as low as it has been since the start of the pandemic.


View attachment 536935

Another view of the same thing here:

That slight flat line that took place does appear to be headed downward again, thankfully.
The graph above uses a 2 week average, which is better to visualize a trend, though adjusting to 5 days average, below, get a look at a nice drop, just too soon to tell if it will stick and continue downward.

We'll focus in on Texas and Mississippi in a couple weeks and see if they screw it up for the rest of us.

 

[correcaminos]

I expect that there's a strong negative correlation between "naturally infected" and "willingness to vax." The people who have behaved recklessly and are therefore more likely to have been infected naturally tend to be the same people who won't get the vaccine. Some people won't get the vaccine specifically BECAUSE they've already been infected. So it's not just a correlation working in our favor, it's at least somewhat causal.

Not sure this is a fair or correct assumption. There are many medical people had covid because of their job. I know teachers too. There are some like you are saying for sure out there, but not all I know who were sick were wreckless. Some just made a mindless mistake with touching and such.

Most servers are young, they'll be fine - as they have been during this entire pandemic which was never much at all for them to be concerned about anyway.

Except for the ones who aren't. But who cares about everyone?

This thread turned to crazy again it seems. I don't quite understand it. I think the only reason why I am here still is because for a while people would tag me to talk about the trial information. Now it's turning political again and I just don't get it. A year later why on earth are we making this political still? Crazy to me.

 

[danlb_2000]

Another view of the same thing here:
View attachment 536946

That slight flat line that took place does appear to be headed downward again, thankfully.
The graph above uses a 2 week average, which is better to visualize a trend, though adjusting to 5 days average, below, get a look at a nice drop, just too soon to tell if it will stick and continue downward.
View attachment 536947

We'll focus in on Texas and Mississippi in a couple weeks and see if they screw it up for the rest of us.

Which site was this from? Always looking for different places to view the data.

 

[Heppenheimer]

And it’s clear that many others did much more.
On a government level, it wasn’t just the US. UK, EU, also heavily funded research. The Pfizer vaccine, the first to be approved in the US, was self-funded and funded by Germany, none of the research funding came from the US.
Within the US, Congress provided the actual funding.
Career scientists in the CDC and other institutions worked diligently.
The oft maligned pharmaceutical industry stepped up. And thousands of scientists in the private sector worked day and night.

Trump, his administration, and operation warp speed definitely get some of the credit for the vaccine development. It might have gone just as fast without Trump, but we don’t know. Biden and his administration definitely get some of the credit for the improving rollout. Whether it would have gone as well without Biden and his team, we also don’t know.

Let's be clear about what Operation Warp Speed did and didn't do. It eliminated some of the intermediate administrative steps in vaccine development by guaranteeing future purchases. Yes, it was important to cut as many time inefficiencies in the development process as possible, but these steps, which usually occur between clinical stages as the pharmaceutical companies secure financing for the next stage, are not the primary rate limiting steps in drug or vaccine development. Particularly for vaccines, the primary rate-limiting step are the Stage III clinical trials, simply because the placebo group needs to accumulate enough cases to show statistically significant deviation from the treatment group. This is why the tentative ebola vaccine, the first use of an mRNA vaccine, has languished in stage III for close to a decade. Ebola has retreated back into its jungle reservoir, effectively stalling the trial until another outbreak occurs.

With COVID-19, however, the disease raged out of control so badly that the vaccine trials hit their predefined endpoints much quicker than anyone initially anticipated. If this disease remained more localized or acted more like seasonal influenza, we would almost certainly still be in at least Stage III, with or without Operation Warp Speed.

I'm glad we were able to market these vaccines in such record time, but it is worth taking a sober assessment of the main reason we got here so quickly. And that reason doesn't reflect particularly well on the previous administration (or many other national governments throughout the world).

 

[DisneyCane]

There’s a lot of overlap though between infected naturally and vaccinated. For example if 80% of the population gets vaccinated and that percent holds for all groups then 80% of the people naturally infected also got vaccinated and only 20% of the people naturally infected are added to the total immune number. You also have to factor in that the vaccines aren’t 100% effective. Assuming an average efficacy close to 90% that still means 10% of the people vaccinated aren’t really immune. So if 80% of the population is vaccinated then 72% of the population is immune from vaccination. If 40% of the population was naturally infected, 20% of them or 8% of the population would not also be vaccinated so you can add that 8% to the immune from vaccination group. That means 80% immune. The math happens to work out to a wash which isn’t a guarantee to happen but I think it’s likely that natural immunity at least covers the people who are vaccinated but not immune.

I would think that in the early vaccination groups, the overlap isn't nearly has high. People who are 65+ or at very high risk have very likely been taking more precautions and therefore will have been infected at a lower rate over the past year.

Using Florida's data, there are 2,891,608 people in the 65-74 age group and 156,930 confirmed cases which calculates to 5,427 per 100k. In the 25-34 age group there are 2,839,285 and 327,208 documented cases which calculates to 11,524 per 100k. That doesn't even consider that the younger group are likely to have more asymptomatic, undiscovered infections.

There will be less than half of the overlap in the 65-74 age group as there will be in the 25-34 age group which further solidifies the philosophy that starting with 65+ was and is the right decision. More bang for the buck towards herd immunity as well as in eliminating the maximum potential fatalities.

 

[Incomudro]

Not sure this is a fair or correct assumption. There are many medical people had covid because of their job. I know teachers too. There are some like you are saying for sure out there, but not all I know who were sick were wreckless. Some just made a mindless mistake with touching and such.


Except for the ones who aren't. But who cares about everyone?

This thread turned to crazy again it seems. I don't quite understand it. I think the only reason why I am here still is because for a while people would tag me to talk about the trial information. Now it's turning political again and I just don't get it. A year later why on earth are we making this political still? Crazy to me.

If I were a server in that category, was not vaccinated, and believed I was at risk, I'd wear an n95 mask - because that's the one that would protect me - rather than simply aid in the reduction of community spread.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Disney won’t need to develop anything. Or not much.
France and/or the EU will develop a “passport” (likely linked to a centralized database). DLP will just be checking the France/EU passport.

They aren’t going to have every theme park, restaurant, museum, tourist destination devising their own system. It will be a centralized system. That’s what they are doing now in Israel.

The EU hasn't gotten it right yet! Not the example to follow.

 

[havoc315]

The EU hasn't gotten it right yet! Not the example to follow.

It’s early.

 

[correcaminos]

If I were a server in that category, was not vaccinated, and believed I was at risk, I'd wear an n95 mask - because that's the one that would protect me - rather than simply aid in the reduction of community spread.

That's not what I meant. So many people say "oh young aren't at risk" when I've seen personally enough young to know they can have long term health issues even though they don't have as much risk of death. I'm kind of tired of people assuming young people not dying is good enough. But I'm about saving all lives, not just some.

 

[Miss Bella]

Saying the Biden administration has done "nothing" related to vaccine rollout is a ridiculous as someone saying the Trump administration did "nothing" to get the vaccine developed. How much each has done can be debated, but it's clear they both did things to contribute to it.

The Biden administration has made money grow on trees. That’s impressive.

 

[GoofGoof]

Funny you weren't didn't say this 5 months ago.

The vaccines were not approved 5 months ago. What is so hard to comprehend? Last year when we had no vaccines the only way to contain Covid and limit illness and death was to restrict people interacting in public. People favored that plan. That is still true today with only 15% of the population vaccinated. In a few months we will hopefully have 70-80% of adults vaccinated. That’s where the hope comes from. That’s where the change comes from. The light at the end of the tunnel. All of my loved ones who are elderly have received the vaccine or have an appointment. That’s where the hope comes from. You are desperately trying to make this about Trump and trying to say people‘s attitudes have changed because of politics. You are missing the fact that many people took Covid very seriously so for us the vaccines are a big deal and a way out of this pandemic.

 

[Incomudro]

That's not what I meant. So many people say "oh young aren't at risk" when I've seen personally enough young to know they can have long term health issues even though they don't have as much risk of death. I'm kind of tired of people assuming young people not dying is good enough. But I'm about saving all lives, not just some.

Almost all young people are going to be fine - long term and otherwise.
I'm not about saving all lives.
People die all over the world, everyday, everywhere.
When you see massive people waddling around WDW, or so large that they need to drive an electric vehicle - while they are simultaneously eating tremendous amounts of empty calories, does it trouble you?
That one actually troubles me.

 

[ABQ]

Which site was this from? Always looking for different places to view the data.

The Covid-19 Tracker

As the virus that causes Covid-19 spreads worldwide, this dashboard offers a snapshot of confirmed cases by geographic location. Click a country name to get a more detailed geographic breakdown at the state, province, or county level. Learn more.

www.statnews.com

 

[GoofGoof]

I would think that in the early vaccination groups, the overlap isn't nearly has high. People who are 65+ or at very high risk have very likely been taking more precautions and therefore will have been infected at a lower rate over the past year.

Using Florida's data, there are 2,891,608 people in the 65-74 age group and 156,930 confirmed cases which calculates to 5,427 per 100k. In the 25-34 age group there are 2,839,285 and 327,208 documented cases which calculates to 11,524 per 100k. That doesn't even consider that the younger group are likely to have more asymptomatic, undiscovered infections.

There will be less than half of the overlap in the 65-74 age group as there will be in the 25-34 age group which further solidifies the philosophy that starting with 65+ was and is the right decision. More bang for the buck towards herd immunity as well as in eliminating the maximum potential fatalities.

Agreed 100%. Once the first wave blew over more than half of Covid infections were under 65 people. Right now the vast majority of people infected are not vaccinated so it helps more today than it likely will by the time we get to June and the general public has gone and there is more overlap.

 

[DisneyFan32]

@GoofGoof is there's not going be another surge soon or not? Is the cases will keep going down soon, by next week Texas and other states will delay their lift restrictions until a few months by May or June?

 

[GoofGoof]

Almost all young people are going to be fine - long term and otherwise.
I'm not about saving all lives.
People die all over the world, everyday, everywhere.
When you see massive people waddling around WDW, or so large that they need to drive an electric vehicle - while they are simultaneously eating tremendous amounts of empty calories, does it trouble you?
That one actually troubles me.

Doesn‘t trouble me one bit. I’m paying an insane amount of money to be at WDW to enjoy time with my family and enjoy the parks not to judge and criticize other people. What a waste of time. This goes for the people who spend their time looking for people not wearing masks or not wearing them properly these days.

 

[GimpYancIent]

That's not what I meant. So many people say "oh young aren't at risk" when I've seen personally enough young to know they can have long term health issues even though they don't have as much risk of death. I'm kind of tired of people assuming young people not dying is good enough. But I'm about saving all lives, not just some.

Sad. When this whole COVID19 issue started to spread globally a chart was put out by medical and science authorities showing from young to old the severity of the impact based on age. A mistake! The younger end of the spectrum assumed, due to age, that they could not catch COVID. In fact any human could catch COVID regardless of age the ODDs that the effects could be serious to disastrous increase the further up the age scale you go. The interpretation of the information provided continues to falsely be that young people can not catch COVID19 due to their age. That generality is grossly incorrect.

 

[GoofGoof]

@GoofGoof is there's not going be another surge soon or not? Is the cases will keep going down soon, by next week Texas and other states will delay their lift restrictions until a few months by May or June?

Who knows. If you believe the variant crew the next wave is coming for sure any day now. I have no way of knowing if that’s true. I don’t think that’s definitely going to happen, but it could. Cases hit a speed bump but they started down again so it’s possible that’s a sign of a reversal of the current trend or just noise in the longer term curve. That’s why you can’t look at several days of data and jump to any conclusions. Looking at several weeks of data is always better to spot longer term trends.

I don’t think it’s a particularly good idea to remove all restrictions today but that’s a political move not a public health one. If we hold out for a few more months and get case numbers as low as possible then the full effect of the vaccinations will take less time to drive cases to near zero levels. Having a lower starting point could mean more of a return to normal earlier in the Summer. Going crazy today could unfortunately mean we have to wait until end of Summer to see restrictions gone. Hopefully that’s not the case but it’s a concern, along with the potential impact of variants. Fortunately for us on the variant front the 3 approved vaccines are highly effective vs the UK variant which is the most prevalent variant in the US. If the S African one comes here in great numbers that might mean we need a booster or 3rd shot.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Disney won’t need to develop anything. Or not much.
France and/or the EU will develop a “passport” (likely linked to a centralized database). DLP will just be checking the France/EU passport.

They aren’t going to have every theme park, restaurant, museum, tourist destination devising their own system. It will be a centralized system. That’s what they are doing now in Israel.

I hope that either one of the following happens:

1) A North American-based system is fully compatible with the EU.

2) If for some reason we choose not to implement a system here, the EU allows an opt-in for people who live outside the block.