Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[CaptainAmerica]

Nonsense. That type of attitude comes from a certain pompousness that certainty is better than honesty. Science is all about evolving knowledge, as time goes on, you learn more, you reassess your assumptions. That's how science works.

Take Fauci's comment that there was no need to make day-to-day changes -- that statement came in late February. At the time, our best knowledge was that there were only a handful of cases in the entire country. So yes -- no need to make day-to-day changes, when there are only 15 cases in the entire country. And when he learned there were thousands and thousands of cases -- that advice changes.

And one reason vaccine development went faster than expected, it because of how uncontrolled the virus has been. Studies take much longer when a virus is well contained -- because not enough people are getting sick quickly enough, to measure. The "silver lining" of how totally out of control Covid has become, it greatly accelerated testing.

Except that he consistently made statements using the language of certitude. Things that he framed as entirely outside the realm of possibility have come to pass. "Evolving knowledge" is a reasonable explanation for lack of precision, it is not an acceptable explanation for being just plain wrong.

"A vaccine that you make and start testing in a year is not a vaccine that's deployable" is a statement of certitude. He did not say "wow that would be hard." He did not say "that would really require the stars to align." He did not say "...but we could do it if conditions allow testing to be done quickly." He said "not deployable" as a statement of fact.

 

[havoc315]

I don’t think it was being less than forthright, just overly conservative with a target of end of July. I like this announcement so much better. There’s a chance we don’t get there and miss the target but I’d much prefer they set an aspirational goal and shoot for achieving it then something that was almost impossible not to make.

I felt that way when Biden initially made the "pledge" of 100 million doses in the first 100 days. At his inauguration, we already were just under 1 million per day -- So it wasn't a very aspirational pledge.

But I take today's announcement as more than aspirational -- It suggests to a high degree of confidence that we will "have enough vaccine by the end of May."

..... of course, vaccine hesitancy may still be a big stumbling block. We will see.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I felt that way when Biden initially made the "pledge" of 100 million doses in the first 100 days. At his inauguration, we already were just under 1 million per day -- So it wasn't a very aspirational pledge.

He's done that a couple of times. He recently said that they want to have at least 50% of students in school in person at least part time. I believe we were already at 60% when they made the announcement.

 

[DCBaker]

Residents deemed extremely vulnerable will not yet be able to get vaccinated at the Federal or State-supported sites -

 

[havoc315]

Except that he consistently made statements using the language of certitude. Things that he framed as entirely outside the realm of possibility have come to pass. "Evolving knowledge" is a reasonable explanation for lack of precision, it is not an acceptable explanation for being just plain wrong.

"A vaccine that you make and start testing in a year is not a vaccine that's deployable" is a statement of certitude. He did not say "wow that would be hard." He did not say "that would really require the stars to align." He did not say "...but we could do it if conditions allow testing to be done quickly." He said "not deployable" as a statement of fact.

This is partially due to media reporting, which looks for headlines and skips important context -- Fauci almost never speaks with certitude. If you listen to him speak -- If you actually look at transcripts, not just the reported snippets, he almost always speaks equivocally.

For example -- the whole thing about no need to change daily activities:

This was the full quote:

Fauci: No. Right now, at this moment, there’s no need to change anything that you’re doing on a day-by-day basis. Right now the risk is still low, but this could change. I’ve said that many times even on this program. You’ve got to watch out because although the risk is low now, you don’t need to change anything you’re doing. When you start to see community spread, this could change and force you to become much more attentive to doing things that would protect you from spread.

 

[havoc315]

He's done that a couple of times. He recently said that they want to have at least 50% of students in school in person at least part time. I believe we were already at 60% when they made the announcement.

lol, he is careful not to over-promise.

 

[ABQ]

He's done that a couple of times. He recently said that they want to have at least 50% of students in school in person at least part time. I believe we were already at 60% when they made the announcement.

And his office has been exceeding vague on how they are measuring both 50% of students and the number of days in a week the students would be in class. He's kept to door open to say he succeeded if just half of students get in person teaching 1 day a week. Which...is a bit weak. Especially when the insane amount of money already allocated in the first two Covid relief packages to schools which has not yet been spend coupled with the amount in the latest bill not yet signed. But the argument about teacher's unions is for another day in another thread so I'll shut up now.

 

[sullyinMT]

It’s all about freedom...freedom to get a lung infection.

North Dakota has enough people to fit snugly inside Pittsburgh...

And this is also why the TX issue is potentially a bigger deal than FL when they went this way months ago. Sure, FL has a lot of rural space, but you’re never THAT far from a Jacksonville or Tampa Bay.

If people in places like Amarillo and Andrews stayed away from bigger cities and didn’t carry the virus back with them, no mask the whole way by way of the new order, we wouldn’t have as much to worry about. But there’s way too much space without adequate healthcare between major cities. It’s really a blessing and a curse.

 

[MaryJaneP]

Wasn't the mRNA vaccine route being developed over the last 10 years or so? Doesn't seem like it took them less than 1 year.

 

[danlb_2000]

Wasn't the mRNA vaccine route being developed over the last 10 years or so? Doesn't seem like it took them less than 1 year.

Longer then that. Some of the first serious work happened around 1990.

 

[MaryJaneP]

And are some still clinging to the "deployability" argument that has since been proven to have been overcome?

 

[GoofGoof]

That makes zero sense. Not much of a “policy formulator” is ya??

I think it’s possible the CDC revises their mask guidance to say masks are only recommended when indoors. It could be part of their step down to no masks. I know it makes things harder for Disney to enforce but if they follow CDC recommendations they could alter the policy. I agree that it is more likely that they just wait until masks aren’t needed anymore anywhere but it really depends on how long that takes.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

 

[CatesMom]

I would like to know more about the theory of "preemptive lawsuits." Who would have standing to bring them? If there are no actual damages, what would be the incentive for filing them?

Let's cut to the chase. Who is going to pay the lawyers?

 

[JoeCamel]

Isn't that what they were saying a couple of days ago?
Pretty sure I heard that exact message during an interview. Guess they want to make it official and he had the prepress copy

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I think proof of vaccination will be very likely. Not just disney, but many other industries too. In May, once vaccines are widely available, theres no reason not to get one (Unless you absolutely cannot medically). Theme parks, movies, entertainment, airlines, etc. With this they can open capacity, loosen restrictions, but still ensure that safety is priority, especially in the summer season.

 

[JoeCamel]

I think proof of vaccination will be very likely. Not just disney, but many other industries too. Once vaccines are widely available, theres no reason not to get one (Unless you absolutely cannot medically). Theme parks, movies, entertainment, airlines, etc. With this they can open capacity, loosen restrictions, but still ensure that safety is priority.

They could but I bet they don't

 

[ABQ]

The proof is such a joke though. I have such proof and it's just a simple piece of business card thick paper with nothing special on it. As easy as it is to pass a "service dog" off making your own vaccine cards is even simpler.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think proof of vaccination will be very likely. Not just disney, but many other industries too. In May, once vaccines are widely available, theres no reason not to get one (Unless you absolutely cannot medically). Theme parks, movies, entertainment, airlines, etc. With this they can open capacity, loosen restrictions, but still ensure that safety is priority, especially in the summer season.

What about kids? If Disney requires proof of vaccination in May they would need to exclude potentially any kid under 16 and definitely any kid under 12. That’s a big part of their target audience.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

The proof is such a joke though. I have such proof and it's just a simple piece of business card thick paper with nothing special on it. As easy as it is to pass a "service dog" off making your own vaccine cards is even simpler.

there is another record of your vaccination elsewhere. Whether its a Vax center, pharmacy, etc, your name is attached to the prescribed dose.