Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

All good. I’ve been a little confused by Fauci lately. Not sure if he has some agenda and/or towing the company line or just likes to hear himself talk, but lots of crazy talk recently and very inconsistent quotes that often seem to contradict themselves.

• Saying one day that if the trials on children progress well that it may be possible that all school age kids are vaccinated by Sept when schools are all back and then a few days later saying its possible high school age kids (who are all part of the 12+ trial expected to end soon) may not be vaccinated until late in the Fall. 2 very different and contradicting opinions from the same guy days apart.
• His comments on the vaccine not being available to the general public until June after a week prior saying April and when questioned on why his projection changed saying he changed his opinion because of a shortage of JnJ vaccines at the start of their rolllout but that info was known since January.
• Recent talk of restrictions like masks being around in 2022 or no return to normal until Christmas when he’s consistently said a possible return to normal by Fall

I feel like the message is all over the place at a time where there should be one firm consistent message coming out: the vaccine rollout is going great and will pickup more soon as more doses become available and the fastest way for all of us to get back to normal life is to take the vaccine as soon as you are eligible. Simple, straightforward and consistent should be the goal. If asked about when restrictions can be lifted or “a return to normal” his and the administration‘s answer should always be it depends on how many people take the vaccine. If the vaccine manufacturers make their number and if we get a large enough number of people to take the vaccine it is possible it could be as early as some time this summer. That’s an aspirational goal or target that can inspire people to want to get vaccinated and get their summer back. Instead what we are getting are these nonsense, sandbagged targets like 100M shots in 100 days and enough doses for everyone by end of July and a return to normal by Christmas. I get politically it makes sense to underpromise and over deliver, but Kennedy didn’t pledge to put a monkey in orbit, he pledged to put a man on the moon and then did it. That’s what I’d like to see out of the government (including spokespeople like Fauci) today. Set a real aspirational target and then go and achieve it.

...steps off of soap box

No joke: Fauci is 80 years old.

Father Time catches everyone in the race. It’s the same reason Biden isn’t doing pressers - honestly...

And even if they were in their 50’s the polarization and 5 years of outright lies on near everything (as opposed to the normal lies for a 100 years in DC) has made this such a tangled minefield that I don’t know what the point of saying anything is? They can’t get a consensus national cooperation...because the minute it looks like “common ground”, some upstart goes on tv and twitter and tries to gain political capital by undercutting it.

You can’t win. Fauci was a highly distinguished aids fighter in the early days (the bush 1 nod is out there)...but that was going on 40 years ago.

So was birx...she went down with the ship (SS Lysol)...have to give Fauci credit for at least knowing it is a game.

 

[dizneyingaffect]

Maybe you should work on some facts because every "fact" in your post is wrong. I'm not going to cover every one because I've got something to do in a couple of minutes but non-resident deaths are counted and are on the daily PDF report.

Since 9/1, NY has reported 14,681 deaths, NJ has reported 7,191 deaths and FL has reported 19,361 deaths. 21,872 > 19,361 so that isn't accurate. Per capita that's 75 per 100k for NY, 81 per 100k for NJ and 89 per 100k for FL since 9/1. NY and NJ have also had very strict "mitigation" measures in place, especially in certain areas like NYC and the difference per capita still isn't that much (especially compared to NJ).

All due respect to Jill Fisch being "convinced" of her mother's cause of death, just because somebody tests positive for COVID prior to dying doesn't mean COVID had anything to do with it. Same comment to Isaiah Clark.

None of what you posted precludes Democrat elected officials in Democrat controlled counties from releasing the "real" data to the public to expose all the nefarious activity of Desantis.

Your numbers are slightly off.

FL: 19553
NY: 14763
NJ: 7293

So NY and NJ saved lives while Florida didn't mitigate. We 100% agree. People are pretending like deaths in NY are greater than deaths in FL since last fall which is absolutely false. I'm glad you agree that NY and NJ are doing a much better job than FL, TX, ND, SD, etc. If they had the same variant problem that CA had this winter then those "open" states would've fared much worse. NY is better off than FL now.

Your Jill Fisch argument is incorrect; when a person would have lived longer had they not been infected by COVID then that means you died from COVID. COVID causes strokes, heart attacks, etc.

How do you suppose political officials would acquire data that's being sent directly to the state? There's a reason why DeSantis is bypassing the states (the article you responded to was from last May).

 

[dizneyingaffect]

All good. I’ve been a little confused by Fauci lately. Not sure if he has some agenda and/or towing the company line or just likes to hear himself talk, but lots of crazy talk recently and very inconsistent quotes that often seem to contradict themselves.

• Saying one day that if the trials on children progress well that it may be possible that all school age kids are vaccinated by Sept when schools are all back and then a few days later saying its possible high school age kids (who are all part of the 12+ trial expected to end soon) may not be vaccinated until late in the Fall. 2 very different and contradicting opinions from the same guy days apart.
• His comments on the vaccine not being available to the general public until June after a week prior saying April and when questioned on why his projection changed saying he changed his opinion because of a shortage of JnJ vaccines at the start of their rolllout but that info was known since January.
• Recent talk of restrictions like masks being around in 2022 or no return to normal until Christmas when he’s consistently said a possible return to normal by Fall

I feel like the message is all over the place at a time where there should be one firm consistent message coming out: the vaccine rollout is going great and will pickup more soon as more doses become available and the fastest way for all of us to get back to normal life is to take the vaccine as soon as you are eligible. Simple, straightforward and consistent should be the goal. If asked about when restrictions can be lifted or “a return to normal” his and the administration‘s answer should always be it depends on how many people take the vaccine. If the vaccine manufacturers make their number and if we get a large enough number of people to take the vaccine it is possible it could be as early as some time this summer. That’s an aspirational goal or target that can inspire people to want to get vaccinated and get their summer back. Instead what we are getting are these nonsense, sandbagged targets like 100M shots in 100 days and enough doses for everyone by end of July and a return to normal by Christmas. I get politically it makes sense to underpromise and over deliver, but Kennedy didn’t pledge to put a monkey in orbit, he pledged to put a man on the moon and then did it. That’s what I’d like to see out of the government (including spokespeople like Fauci) today. Set a real aspirational target and then go and achieve it.

...steps off of soap box

On 1/23 Facui said "semblance of normalcy by the fall". Semblance of normalcy would mean, for example, a mostly full stadium of spectators that are required to wear masks. That's semblance, for example.

Fauci hasn't been inconsistent since he's been unleashed, it's just hard for most people to keep track of what is being said during a pandemic. Which is totally understandable, most people struggle to remember information. Who else remembers Open By Easter, The Cure Can't Be Worse Than The Problem, Open By Summer, Rocking By The Fall, V-Shaped Recovery, vaccines by Election Day, pandemic over by Election Day, 100 million Americans vaccinated by December 31 2020, etc etc etc.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

Went to Orlando today and was at the Andretti go-kart place. Some people were maskless. I had mine on tight and wearing glasses (nerd immunity). I hope I didn’t catch it but man Florida needs to be better at enforcing masks. I know low bar, but I’m doing my duty by masking myself so tight and my OCD taking over whenever I wash my hands. I think I might start putting my kn95 over my space mountain mask from now on....

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

I didn’t distance myself quite well when playing time crisis (excellent game and I spent 20 dollars almost beating it) but I didn’t bump into anyone and I stayed relatively spaced between masked people and avoided the non-maskers. I haven’t been in a large crowd with less than 6 feet distancing in a while. That’s why I’m worried.

 

[dizneyingaffect]

Scientific data makes it QUITE clear now is not the time to relax the rules. Time and time again, nations all around the world have relaxed restrictions too soon and caused more death. We need to tow the line just a little longer if we want to finally end the pandemic. We are talking mere months and spring is coming, where outdoor hikes away from crowds can be enjoyed maskless. We can do this.

People should be very optimistic about the near future so long as you're in certain categories which most people here are. The problem IMO will be caused by people who are outraged that we will never be living in a world similar to pre-COVID, as well as regional variant issues. Too early to tell if the virus will continue to mutate in a manner that makes it more difficult to combat; the spike protein is one thing but the SA/Brazil immune escape is concerning (reduced efficacy of monoclonal antibody treatment plus lower vaccine efficacy)

 

[fgmnt]

I would expect Disney to maintain masking mandates within their walls of operation as long as there is technically still an active pandemic. There is definitely reason to believe/be hopeful that the United States could see 80% of the population immune to the virus by Labor Day, if not sooner. Being the richest country in the world is coming in handy in this regard, as the US will likely lead overall vaccines throughout the rollout.

The J&J vaccine is great news because it's a single shot that can be kept in a refrigerator forever. It will be vital in mass vaccinating college campuses and other more transient environments and people. I joked with people that we should staff nurses at local gas stations over the summer and just jab everyone without a card.

 

[GoofGoof]

On 1/23 Facui said "semblance of normalcy by the fall". Semblance of normalcy would mean, for example, a mostly full stadium of spectators that are required to wear masks. That's semblance, for example.

Fauci hasn't been inconsistent since he's been unleashed, it's just hard for most people to keep track of what is being said during a pandemic. Which is totally understandable, most people struggle to remember information. Who else remembers Open By Easter, The Cure Can't Be Worse Than The Problem, Open By Summer, Rocking By The Fall, V-Shaped Recovery, vaccines by Election Day, pandemic over by Election Day, 100 million Americans vaccinated by December 31 2020, etc etc etc.

...3 weeks later in an LA Times interview Fauci says “hopefully, by the time we enter 2022, we will have a degree of normality that will approximate the kind of normality we are used to.”

Am I supposed to believe something changed in those 3 weeks that pushes a return to a level of normalcy from “by the Fall” to “hopefully the start of 2022”. That’s 4+ months later. It seems pretty inconsistent to me.

 

[dizneyingaffect]

I would expect Disney to maintain masking mandates within their walls of operation as long as there is technically still an active pandemic. There is definitely reason to believe/be hopeful that the United States could see 80% of the population immune to the virus by Labor Day, if not sooner. Being the richest country in the world is coming in handy in this regard, as the US will likely lead overall vaccines throughout the rollout.

The J&J vaccine is great news because it's a single shot that can be kept in a refrigerator forever. It will be vital in mass vaccinating college campuses and other more transient environments and people. I joked with people that we should staff nurses at local gas stations over the summer and just jab everyone without a card.

80% of population immune assumes 80% of population is vaccinated by at least one dose. That assumes all adults have been vaccinated, including the anti-vaxxers, plus basically all high school students (~24% of US is under 18).

Masks will be required in Disney until at least October 2nd, if you get my drift.

 

[dizneyingaffect]

...3 weeks later in an LA Times interview Fauci says “hopefully, by the time we enter 2022, we will have a degree of normality that will approximate the kind of normality we are used to.”

Am I supposed to believe something changed in those 3 weeks that pushes a return to a level of normalcy from “by the Fall” to “hopefully the start of 2022”. That’s 4+ months later. It seems pretty inconsistent to me.

Semblance of normalcy is the first step towards the kind of normality we are used to.

The first implies masks, the second doesn't necessarily include masks.

The last 5 weeks the Federal Government has done a great job cleaning up the CDC, purchasing vaccines that should've been purchased before Jan 21, etc. I too am angry that the COVID response was sabotaged by people who thought it would just go away if they ignored it for long enough, or that herd immunity would be attainable without mass testing, masks, mitigation efforts, etc. "Why do we do so many tests? We would have less cases if we did less tests" logic is what prevented US from sequencing identifying and studying emerging variants sooner. How many people in CA died because of the delayed discovery of the CA strain?

This whole situation is so stupid and annoying, whoever was in office before the current guy would've and should've been re-elected had he done his job instead of pushing for herd immunity as early as April 2020. And that's coming from someone who isn't particularly fond of whatever that guy's name is.

 

[fgmnt]

80% of population immune assumes 80% of population is vaccinated by at least one dose. That assumes all adults have been vaccinated, including the anti-vaxxers, plus basically all high school students (~24% of US is under 18).

I'm including those who may still have active related antibodies from a recent infection, which is driving the models almost as much as the vaccine distribution, vaccine immunity likely will not break 70% in 2021, if ever (because <16 are not allowed and anti-vax weirdos). The New York Times visualized this last week with the help of a model from a public health research group.

Related to the discussion of what happens if you lift certain restrictions at certain times or the variants of concern take root in the US, you have a much grimmer but faster path to speculated herd immunity! That is, unless new variants become unresponsive to current vaccines. That would be bad.

Personally, as a relatively healthy (especially with regards to my circulatory and pulmonary system) who contracted a mild case of the disease at the start of this month, I definitely recommend the vaccine over getting this thing!

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

I feel like though if the US got to New Zealand levels or lower, Disney could revert back to pre pandemic operations even with the worldwide pandemic still ongoing. Remember measles outbreaks happen in the Disney parks yet it is at endemic status. Covid could become the same thing in the future

 

[dizneyingaffect]

I'm including those who may still have active related antibodies from a recent infection, which is driving the models almost as much as the vaccine distribution, vaccine immunity likely will not break 70% in 2021, if ever (because <16 are not allowed and anti-vax weirdos). The New York Times visualized this last week with the help of a model from a public health research group.

Related to the discussion of what happens if you lift certain restrictions at certain times or the variants of concern take root in the US, you have a much grimmer but faster path to speculated herd immunity! That is, unless new variants become unresponsive to current vaccines. That would be bad.

Personally, as a relatively healthy (especially with regards to my circulatory and pulmonary system) who contracted a mild case of the disease at the start of this month, I definitely recommend the vaccine over getting this thing!

Current mitigation efforts are crushing the OG strain but not the UK/SA/Brazil/CA/FL variants which is why you see graphs like this (not updated graph I'm too lazy to find a newer one):



That graph doesn't mean that total case #s will go up, but the % of cases that are OG are declining and soon we can expect the majority of viruses circulating to be one of the concerning strains (UK et al).



R goes way up (yes, 'k' is more important than 'R' but still) while vaccine efficacy declines. No bueno

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Your numbers are slightly off.

FL: 19553
NY: 14763
NJ: 7293

So NY and NJ saved lives while Florida didn't mitigate. We 100% agree. People are pretending like deaths in NY are greater than deaths in FL since last fall which is absolutely false. I'm glad you agree that NY and NJ are doing a much better job than FL, TX, ND, SD, etc. If they had the same variant problem that CA had this winter then those "open" states would've fared much worse. NY is better off than FL now.

Your Jill Fisch argument is incorrect; when a person would have lived longer had they not been infected by COVID then that means you died from COVID. COVID causes strokes, heart attacks, etc.

How do you suppose political officials would acquire data that's being sent directly to the state? There's a reason why DeSantis is bypassing the states (the article you responded to was from last May).

Yeah...the other kicker on the cherry picked numbers is that NY/NJ has a combined population of 29 mil...which is 7 mil more than Florida and about 33%...

And the density in the northeast - particularly the NYC metro -makes spread an completely different animal to contain. It’s just more crowded and requires more “everything”...everywhere.

Where did Florida have it’s biggest issues? It’s largest population area/sprawl.

But it has its yeehaw junctions where ray finkle kicked too.

We don’t have a lot of those places...we keep our conspiracy theory kooks with amnesia in Toms River and cape may these days...still a lot of people there.

But anyone that says Florida has done well...after they were given a head start last spring...is
A. Lying
B. Watching the wrong channel
C. both

 

[dizneyingaffect]

Yeah...the other kicker on the cherry picked numbers is that NY/NJ has a combined population of 29 mil...which is 7 mil more than Florida and about 33%...

And the density in the northeast - particularly the NYC metro -makes spread an completely different animal to contain. It’s just more crowded and requires more “everything”...everywhere.

Where did Florida have it’s biggest issues? It’s largest population area/sprawl.

But it has its yeehaw junctions where ray finkle kicked too.

We don’t have a lot of those places...we keep out conspiracy theory kooks with amnesia in Toms River and cape may these days...still a lot of people there.

This death count is very disturbing. Humidity and temperature limit the spread of the virus. Latitude (Vitamin D) is strongly correlated with outcome of case. Vitamin D deficiency likely leads to worse symptoms and worse health outcomes for infected persons. Florida has been much worse than the tri-state area despite the better climate.

 

[GoofGoof]

Semblance of normalcy is the first step towards the kind of normality we are used to.

The first implies masks, the second doesn't necessarily include masks.

The last 5 weeks the Federal Government has done a great job cleaning up the CDC, purchasing vaccines that should've been purchased before Jan 21, etc. I too am angry that the COVID response was sabotaged by people who thought it would just go away if they ignored it for long enough, or that herd immunity would be attainable without mass testing, masks, mitigation efforts, etc. "Why do we do so many tests? We would have less cases if we did less tests" logic is what prevented US from sequencing identifying and studying emerging variants sooner. How many people in CA died because of the delayed discovery of the CA strain?

This whole situation is so stupid and annoying, whoever was in office before the current guy would've and should've been re-elected had he done his job instead of pushing for herd immunity as early as April 2020. And that's coming from someone who isn't particularly fond of whatever that guy's name is.

Perfect example of his statements not being clear. Maybe that is what he really meant, but we have no way of knowing. There is no clear and obvious definition for what each of those statements actually means. The news media and headline writers certainly didn’t draw a distinction. When he’s asked about a return to normal the answer shouldn‘t be that inconsistent.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Semblance of normalcy is the first step towards the kind of normality we are used to.

The first implies masks, the second doesn't necessarily include masks.

The last 5 weeks the Federal Government has done a great job cleaning up the CDC, purchasing vaccines that should've been purchased before Jan 21, etc. I too am angry that the COVID response was sabotaged by people who thought it would just go away if they ignored it for long enough, or that herd immunity would be attainable without mass testing, masks, mitigation efforts, etc. "Why do we do so many tests? We would have less cases if we did less tests" logic is what prevented US from sequencing identifying and studying emerging variants sooner. How many people in CA died because of the delayed discovery of the CA strain?

This whole situation is so stupid and annoying, whoever was in office before the current guy would've and should've been re-elected had he done his job instead of pushing for herd immunity as early as April 2020. And that's coming from someone who isn't particularly fond of whatever that guy's name is.

This is a great example of “political truth”

Because it’s 100% correct on how the lines of BS And actual truth often intersect.

It’s most crap...but it’s not always crap.

This is completely correct.

 

[dizneyingaffect]

Perfect example of his statements not being clear. Maybe that is what he really meant, but we have no way of knowing. There is no clear and obvious definition for what each of those statements actually means. The news media and headline writers certainly didn’t draw a distinction. When he’s asked about a return to normal the answer shouldn‘t be that inconsistent.

Tide goes out, tides comes in. You can't explain that!


Seriously though scientists answer questions literally. If you're confused I recommend you learn more to better understand his statements, because they can be confusing especially if you don't understand the underlying conditions. I occasionally re-read info from the last year it can be difficult to grasp, and that's coming from someone who has read at least an hour a day on COVID every day since last January. Can't wait for COVID to be over.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

So uh since this is a disney server, will the HARMONIOUS barges get vaccinated?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This death count is very disturbing. Humidity and temperature limit the spread of the virus. Latitude (Vitamin D) is strongly correlated with outcome of case. Vitamin D deficiency likely leads to worse symptoms and worse health outcomes for infected persons. Florida has been much worse than the tri-state area despite the better climate.

I didn’t even address the weather...which is a GIGANTIC advantage when it comes to virus containment.

Does anyone remember why rich men first settled in Florida??

A huge reason was to protect themselves and their bullion from disease in the climate. It was a less developed world...but they were still relatively correct. The subtropics help immuno-compromised.

It wasn’t about shoveling snow.

Florida has 320 days a year when the temperatures exceed 70...you don’t see a lot of sniffles...

And since numb said it was a flu...they should have seen 0 cases, right?