Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

You are not going to wipe out the virus in 8-10 months. There are to many people who won't get vaccinated, can't get vaccinated and won't follow the precautions, and we are only talking about the US. Other parts of the world are going to have an even harder time wiping it out. Sure, I would love to see it wiped out, but I am being realistic when I say I don't think that will happen.

I don't recall any reliable source saying we could wipe out the virus if we wore masks for 2 month. Dr. Robert Redfield said we could get the virus under control if we all wore masks for 2 months, but that's not the same a wiping it out. Masks are effective in controlling spread but masks alone aren't going to wipe out the virus.

If we don’t eradicate Covid in 8-10 months, then we must continue the mitigation measures. That simple.

Likely, vaccination may become compulsory at some point.

1 of many articles on how quickly we could wipe out the virus with proper mitigation and masking:

We Can Eliminate Covid-19 If We Want To

We are always 4–6 weeks from being able to do what countries around the world have done

coronavirus.medium.com

 

[danlb_2000]

Negative?? I’m extremely positive. 90% is fantastic. With a 90% effective vaccine PLUS mitigation, we can eradicate Covid in 6-9 months. So I’d say I’m being extremely positive!!
I’m also very realistic — it’s not going to wipe out the need for mitigation in 1-2 months. It’s still going to take several more months.

I think the problem with your argument is that you are confusing "can eradicate" with "will eradicate". If I thought everyone would do whatever it takes to eliminate the virus then there is a possibility we could eradicate it. Unfortunately, we do not live in that world, so waiting for eradication before lifting restrictions just isn't going to happen.

 

[danlb_2000]

If we don’t eradicate Covid in 8-10 months, then we must continue the mitigation measures. That simple.

Likely, vaccination may become compulsory at some point.

1 of many articles on how quickly we could wipe out the virus with proper mitigation and masking:

We Can Eliminate Covid-19 If We Want To

We are always 4–6 weeks from being able to do what countries around the world have done

coronavirus.medium.com

A lot of people in the US would never accept some of the things on that list.

 

[havoc315]

Could've fooled me. You're arguing that it is no where near 100% last I checked 90% is still close. You're arguing with all here in a negative way. 90% is not far short of 100% no matter how you argue it. 93-95% asymptomatic is amazing.

I won't even try to predict timelines. They are too fluid and things change.

I said 1 person getting a 90% effective vaccine isn’t good enough for that 1 person to shed their mask and start partyingVaccines are not about protecting the individual. It’s about mass vaccination protecting the entire community.
When 90% of the population (or maybe somewhere between 60-80%) get a vaccine that is 90% effective, then Covid will be eradicated much like measles and mumps and polio.

In fact... I’m the optimist around here. I’m hearing a lot of pessimistic, “we will never get rid of Covid. So May as well return to normal as soon as vaccines are available.”
I’m the optimist — with mitigation until mass vaccination herd immunity is reached, we will eradicate Covid.

 

[havoc315]

I think the problem with your argument is that you are confusing "can eradicate" with "will eradicate". If I thought everyone would do whatever it takes to eliminate the virus then there is a possibility we could eradicate it. Unfortunately, we do not live in that world, so waiting for eradication before lifting restrictions just isn't going to happen.

How about MUST eradicate. We eradicated polio, mumps, measles ...
so the world has changed, we’ve gone backwards and can’t eradicate viruses anymore?

 

[havoc315]

A lot of people in the US would never accept some of the things on that list.

No kidding. If they accepted the stuff on that list, Covid would already be long gone.

So it’s taking longer. But even with fewer measures, we will still eradicate Covid. Just the more/better measures we take, the more quickly we eradicate it.

want it gone by September 2021... or would you rather not eradicate it until 2023?

 

[mmascari]

Enough with the perpetual mitigation narrative. No virus has a 0% case fatality rate or 0% hospitalization rate. The COVID vaccine shouldn't be held to that kind of standard. It is impossible to keep everybody 100% safe unless we'd all like to live in a bubble or live our lives in biohazard suits.

Nobody saying mitigation efforts will continue longer is making this argument.

Once everybody who wishes to be vaccinated can get the shots in the US and the vaccine continues to prove out to be extremely effective (especially with regard to serious illness and death), "mitigation" ends.

Every post about continued mitigation is specifically about this point.

There is no direct relationship between the vaccine on stopping mitigations. Either when enough is available or when an individual gets vaccinated.

The relationship is when community spread is reduced enough, then mitigation efforts can be reduced and stopped.

Enough vaccine distribution should cause community spread to drop, which will then allow mitigation to stop.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Masks are effective in controlling spread but masks alone aren't going to wipe out the virus.

It’s amazing that after nearly a year this still needs to be said... but it does.

I still have friends that think masks do nothing, I’ve shown them YouTube videos that use mannequins and smoke to show how masks reduce the distance breathe and droplets travel and they still say they do nothing . I also have friends that think 100% masks compliance would end the virus in a matter or weeks, if only It was that easy.

It’s alarming that reduce, minimize, and control are such difficult concepts for so many people.

 

[danlb_2000]

How about MUST eradicate. We eradicated polio, mumps, measles ...
so the world has changed, we’ve gone backwards and can’t eradicate viruses anymore?

Yes, we have gone backwards. We have not eradicated measles we have seen a resurgence of this in recent years in the US probably because of the anti-vax movement. There are people in the US who don't even believe the virus is real. There is a larger group who knows it's real but doesn't think it's a big deal. You will never get enough people on board to do what needs to be done to completely eradicate the virus.

 

[danlb_2000]

No kidding. If they accepted the stuff on that lift, Covid would already be long gone.

So it’s taking longer. But even with fewer measures, we will still eradicate Covid. Just the more/better measures we take, the more quickly we eradicate it.

want it gone by September 2021... or would you rather not eradicate it until 2023?

It's not a case of what I want, it's what I think the population as whole will be willing to do.

 

[correcaminos]

How about MUST eradicate. We eradicated polio, mumps, measles ...
so the world has changed, we’ve gone backwards and can’t eradicate viruses anymore?

Mostly but not entirely. And sorry but you sounded super negative to me. Your point was lost on me with all the arguing specific numbers to minute detail

I'm fully vaccinated and have been a while now. I still mask so yes we need to still but at some point we'll lose the fight with that. In fact we already have. I don't think covid can be eliminated completely globally like every single disease you listed is not. We can make it a very livable thing. My hope is covid turns to a cold only. Would be lovely to completely eradicate, but like the diseases you listed, it might remain somewhere for a long time. Other countries have shown we can eradicate but we need better compliance. If anything this pandemic should show you how selfish people are. So 100% gone? Doubt that any time soon. Especially if looking global.

To be honest you are far too black and white in your view of this for me.

 

[Disney Experience]

How about MUST eradicate. We eradicated polio, mumps, measles ...
so the world has changed, we’ve gone backwards and can’t eradicate viruses anymore?

Measles still exists( Disneyland was s place where it spread a few years ago when people infected went there), and in Pakistan Polio still exists. I have not kept up with mumps.

Smallpox has been eliminated in the wild.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Around here, nearly 100% of people wear masks everywhere outside the home.

Mask compliance is still near 100% in most indoor places here but you see fewer and fewer masks outdoors... walking down the Strip you see far fewer masks now than you did a few months ago, same with the driving range, parks, walking paths, etc.

Vaccine numbers are going up, cases are going down, there’s light at the end of the tunnel and people can feel It. My guess is by June or July well be close to “normal”, all businesses will be open, DL will be open, sports will have fans... we’ll probably still have some social distancing restrictions but compared to the last year it’ll feel normal.

 

[lazyboy97o]

How about MUST eradicate. We eradicated polio, mumps, measles ...
so the world has changed, we’ve gone backwards and can’t eradicate viruses anymore?

Only smallpox and rinderpest, which was in cattle, have been eradicated.

 

[havoc315]

Only smallpox and rinderpest, which was in cattle, have been eradicated.

correct. But I’m referring to getting it down to the level of measles and mumps and polio. A couple hundred cases per year.

 

[seabreezept813]

Mask compliance is still near 100% in most indoor places here but you see fewer and fewer masks outdoors... walking down the Strip you see far fewer masks now than you did a few months ago, same with the driving range, parks, walking paths, etc.

Vaccine numbers are going up, cases are going down, there’s light at the end of the tunnel and people can feel It. My guess is by June or July well be close to “normal”, all businesses will be open, DL will be open, sports will have fans... we’ll probably still have some social distancing restrictions but compared to the last year it’ll feel normal.

Yup. Had to run into a store at a shopping plaza yesterday. Couldn’t find a parking spot, cops directing traffic, people waiting outside for their tables to be called for dining, mask adherence meh. And this is Massachusetts where we’ve been so strict before.. While I momentarily felt like omg real life is back, I then remembered this plaza is 5 mins from where I teach where none of us are vaccinated. Can people hold out for 2-3 more months? Pretty please...

 

[Chi84]

It's not a case of what I want, it's what I think the population as whole will be willing to do.

I agree. We live in the real world. (Never thought I would be typing those words on a Disney site )

 

[havoc315]

Measles still exists( Disneyland was s place where it spread a few years ago when people infected went there), and in Pakistan Polio still exists. I have not kept up with mumps.

Smallpox has been eliminated in the wild.

Measles exists. But down to a couple hundred cases per year in the USA. Mumps, a couple thousand cases.

and that’s when we can return to normal with Covid.

 

[havoc315]

Mask compliance is still near 100% in most indoor places here but you see fewer and fewer masks outdoors... walking down the Strip you see far fewer masks now than you did a few months ago, same with the driving range, parks, walking paths, etc.

Vaccine numbers are going up, cases are going down, there’s light at the end of the tunnel and people can feel It. My guess is by June or July well be close to “normal”, all businesses will be open, DL will be open, sports will have fans... we’ll probably still have some social distancing restrictions but compared to the last year it’ll feel normal.

There will indeed be some return to normalcy over the summer.
For example, you may get baseball stadiums at 25% capacity + masks.

But we aren’t returning to a maskless 100% for at least another 6 months, likely a bit longer.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 93 new reported deaths, along with 2 Non-Florida Resident deaths.