Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

Let's put this in perspective..

Imagine a community with rampant infection, no vaccination.
Now, imagine you drop 2 1,0000 person groups into the middle of this community..
Group A - 10,000 unvaccinated individuals, dropped into this community with wide virus spread. They don't use masks, they don't socially distance. Eventually, 80% will get infected before herd immunity. So 8000 of the 10,000 will get infected. Let's say there is a fatality rate of 1%... so out of the 8000 who get infected, 80 will die.

Now, group B -- 10,000 vaccinated individuals (90% effective vaccine) gets dropped into the middle of the community. Instead of 8,000 getting infected... it's down to 800. That's still a lot of people. Instead of 80 people dying, it's "only" 8 people. Now, evidence suggests the vaccines are even more effective against death -- closer to 98-99%. So, it may be "only" 1-2 deaths.

That's a great improvement. Going from 80 deaths per 10,000 people to 1-2 deaths per 10,000 people is fantastic. But is it enough to abandon masks? That would still equate to tens of thousands of deaths on a national level.

Point being: It's about community protection, not individual protection. If you eliminate widespread community infection -- then 90% effective vaccines can work to continue to keep the community safe.... no masks or social distancing required.
But as long as there is widespread community infection, then isolated vaccinations are not very protective.

The goal of the CDC and public health plans: Continue to use ALL measures: social distancing, masking, and vaccines to drive away the virus. Once the virus is basically gone, then vaccinations will prevent it from coming back.

 

[havoc315]

Not sure where you are getting the 90% number from. The articles I have seen are saying 95% chance to completely prevent illness from the virus, and 99.2% chance of preventing serious illness. Those number are also across people of all ages and co-morbidities, so for younger health people it's an even better chance of preventing serious illness.

New study released today... 89%, first study of real-world large scale use:

Israel finds BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine reduces virus transmission

Health ministry data show shot is 89% effective at preventing infection of any kind

www.ft.com

 

[havoc315]

Along with the fact that exactly zero people fully vaccinated have been hospitalized or died due to Covid. That’s the point. The vaccines make Covid a cold. A mild one at that.

That's actually not true. You're quoting studies based on a short time frame of just a few thousand people. As use has grown to millions of people... there are still people who get very sick, and there are still people that die. Far fewer people, thankfully. But still happening:

"The Israeli report describes observations made during three weeks in January and February when researchers were able to compare health records of unvaccinated people and people who had gotten their second shot more than a week before. They then compared the groups for five covid-19 outcomes: infection, symptoms, hospitalizations, critical hospitalization, and death. The unpublished study says the vaccine was around 93% effective in preventing symptomatic covid-19. Pfizer and its partner, the German biotechnology firm BioNTech, had found 95% effectiveness in their clinical trials carried out in 2020. The country-wide study was also able to show that hospitalizations and deaths dropped by similar amounts in the vaccinated group."

Quote -- Hospitalizations and deaths dropped by a "similar amount" -- but were not eliminated.

A leaked report shows Pfizer’s vaccine is conquering covid-19 in its largest real-world test

Country-wide data from Israel, which leads the world in vaccinating its population, reveals that the vaccine sharply cuts infections.

www.technologyreview.com

More:

"The vaccinated group was also 92% less likely to develop severe illness from the disease,"

Symptomatic Covid-19 Cases Dropped 94% With Pfizer Vaccine, Israeli Data Show

The study compared 600,000 people who received two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine with an unvaccinated group of the same size, offering important new insights to other countries as they roll out their own campaigns.

www.wsj.com

 

[Chi84]

That's actually not true. You're quoting studies based on a short time frame of just a few thousand people. As use has grown to millions of people... there are still people who get very sick, and there are still people that die. Far fewer people, thankfully. But still happening:

"The Israeli report describes observations made during three weeks in January and February when researchers were able to compare health records of unvaccinated people and people who had gotten their second shot more than a week before. They then compared the groups for five covid-19 outcomes: infection, symptoms, hospitalizations, critical hospitalization, and death. The unpublished study says the vaccine was around 93% effective in preventing symptomatic covid-19. Pfizer and its partner, the German biotechnology firm BioNTech, had found 95% effectiveness in their clinical trials carried out in 2020. The country-wide study was also able to show that hospitalizations and deaths dropped by similar amounts in the vaccinated group."

Quote -- Hospitalizations and deaths dropped by a "similar amount" -- but were not eliminated.

A leaked report shows Pfizer’s vaccine is conquering covid-19 in its largest real-world test

Country-wide data from Israel, which leads the world in vaccinating its population, reveals that the vaccine sharply cuts infections.

www.technologyreview.com

I think you may be talking past people here. There is virtually no chance that mitigation efforts will continue until the virus is completely eradicated and no one is becoming sick or dying from it. I think it's safe to say that most look at that 95% number quite differently from you, whether right or wrong.

 

[Touchdown]

Along with the fact that exactly zero people fully vaccinated have been hospitalized or died due to Covid. That’s the point. The vaccines make Covid a cold. A mild one at that.

To piggyback on that:

-Pfizer via the Isreal study has been shown to reduce transmissions by 90%. Moderna via studying results from their EUA significantly reduces infections as well

-Both Pfizer and Moderna are 95% effective at preventing symptomatic infections. J&J are 66-80% effective at this (66 is for the SA varient, we don’t have firm data on the Moderna or Pfizer shots yet.)

-All three vaccines, regardless of strain, 100% to date prevent severe disease, hospitalization and death.

 

[DisneyCane]

Data from Israel shows 90% effective... they have the greatest use of vaccination thus far.

90% is indeed far short of fully effective.

If I told you that your risk of getting seriously hurt on rollercoaster was 50%, you wouldn’t ride it.
now, if I said the safety harness reduces the risk by 90%... so there is “only” a 5% chance of getting seriously hurt on the roller coaster, would you ride it?

90% effective is fantastic if everyone is covered, so you have very few Covid contacts. That’s herd immunity.

But if you have a 90% effective vaccine... but you’re still coming into contact with thousands of active transmitting cases... tons of vaccinated people will still get sick.

Even if the vaccine is "only" 90% effective across the board (infection, serious illness and death), that represents an incredible reduction in serious outcomes or death. Using Florida's data for 65-74 year olds, the case hospitalization rate is 10.6% and the case fatality rate is 4.1%. For simplicity, we won't even consider asymptomatic cases which is difficult to estimate perfectly. Therefore, a vaccine as described would lower the effective hospitalization rate for the same exposure to 1.06% and the effective case fatality rate for the same exposure to 0.41%.

Looked at a little differently, the mortality rate for Florida's 65-74 population is 260.6 per 100,000 people in that population. A vaccine that only prevents 90% of the fatalities would lower that to 26.06 per 100,000 people.

Enough with the perpetual mitigation narrative. No virus has a 0% case fatality rate or 0% hospitalization rate. The COVID vaccine shouldn't be held to that kind of standard. It is impossible to keep everybody 100% safe unless we'd all like to live in a bubble or live our lives in biohazard suits.

Once everybody who wishes to be vaccinated can get the shots in the US and the vaccine continues to prove out to be extremely effective (especially with regard to serious illness and death), "mitigation" ends.

 

[danlb_2000]

New study released today... 89%, first study of real-world large scale use:

Israel finds BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine reduces virus transmission

Health ministry data show shot is 89% effective at preventing infection of any kind

www.ft.com

That's behind a paywall. I can't find any source that states that number.

 

[danlb_2000]

Let's put this in perspective..

Imagine a community with rampant infection, no vaccination.
Now, imagine you drop 2 1,0000 person groups into the middle of this community..
Group A - 10,000 unvaccinated individuals, dropped into this community with wide virus spread. They don't use masks, they don't socially distance. Eventually, 80% will get infected before herd immunity. So 8000 of the 10,000 will get infected. Let's say there is a fatality rate of 1%... so out of the 8000 who get infected, 80 will die.

Now, group B -- 10,000 vaccinated individuals (90% effective vaccine) gets dropped into the middle of the community. Instead of 8,000 getting infected... it's down to 800. That's still a lot of people. Instead of 80 people dying, it's "only" 8 people. Now, evidence suggests the vaccines are even more effective against death -- closer to 98-99%. So, it may be "only" 1-2 deaths.

That's a great improvement. Going from 80 deaths per 10,000 people to 1-2 deaths per 10,000 people is fantastic. But is it enough to abandon masks? That would still equate to tens of thousands of deaths on a national level.

Point being: It's about community protection, not individual protection. If you eliminate widespread community infection -- then 90% effective vaccines can work to continue to keep the community safe.... no masks or social distancing required.
But as long as there is widespread community infection, then isolated vaccinations are not very protective.

The goal of the CDC and public health plans: Continue to use ALL measures: social distancing, masking, and vaccines to drive away the virus. Once the virus is basically gone, then vaccinations will prevent it from coming back.

I am all for precautions to prevent the spread of the virus, but it is not realistic to keep precautions in place until the virus has been eliminated. There is a chance that will never happen. Once the community transmission has been driven down to low levels, and anyone who wants a vaccine can get one, then it will be hard to keep the precautions in place.

 

[danlb_2000]

New study released today... 89%, first study of real-world large scale use:

Israel finds BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine reduces virus transmission

Health ministry data show shot is 89% effective at preventing infection of any kind

www.ft.com

I did find this study that uses the 89% number, but that was the effectivity after one dose.

DEFINE_ME

 

[havoc315]

I am all for precautions to prevent the spread of the virus, but it is not realistic to keep precautions in place until the virus has been eliminated. There is a chance that will never happen. Once the community transmission has been driven down to low levels, and anyone who wants a vaccine can get one, then it will be hard to keep the precautions in place.

Realistically, if we keep adequate precautions in place, and people actually get the vaccine (opportunity doesn’t do anything, people have to actually get it), then we can drop all/most precautions by the end of the year.
Not realistic to keep precautions for another 8-10 months, to completely totally end a pandemic? I think it’s a pretty reasonable price. (If we actually strictly complied with masking, studies suggest we could totally wipe out the virus in 2 months).

 

[Mark52479]

I agree with you, but the point is that enforcement won't be possible if most people just decide not to comply. Local supermarkets in my area are no longer confronting people they way they did months ago. Like I said, I hope people can just make it a little longer until most are vaccinated.

I agree with this.

We will get to a point where a majority of the people have been vaccinated and they will just say "hey i got vaccinated a while ago I am not wearing these masks anymore" I think a LARGE majority of people will do that, and in some states they will do it quicker than others.

So, Like you said I just hope we can make it a little longer where enough people get vaccinated this wont have much of an effect if that does happen.

 

[havoc315]

I think you may be talking past people here. There is virtually no chance that mitigation efforts will continue until the virus is completely eradicated and no one is becoming sick or dying from it. I think it's safe to say that most look at that 95% number quite differently from you, whether right or wrong.

The CDC and Federal government may then have to start mandating more mitigation measures. But continued mitigation + vaccination can completely eradicate the virus in 6-9 months.

If we drop mitigation too early, then we will never eradicate the virus.

 

[havoc315]

I did find this study that uses the 89% number, but that was the effectivity after one dose.

DEFINE_ME

No...

Mayo Clinic findings show vaccine gives 75% protection 15 days after 1st dose, rising to 83% after 36 days; figure climbs to 89% for people who received both doses​

US study suggests efficacy of 1st Pfizer, Moderna shot increases with time

Mayo Clinic findings show vaccine gives 75% protection 15 days after 1st dose, rising to 83% after 36 days; figure climbs to 89% for people who received both doses

www.timesofisrael.com

Data analysis in a study by the Israeli Health Ministry andPfizer Inc found the Pfizer vaccine developed withGermany's BioNTech reduces infection, including inasymptomatic cases, by 89.4% and in syptomatic cases by 93.7%.

UPDATE 1-Israeli studies find Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine reduces transmission

Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccinegreatly reduces virus transmission, two Israeli studies havefound, shedding light on one of the biggest questions of theglobal effort to quash the pandemic. Data analysis in a study by the Israeli Health Ministry andPfizer Inc found the Pfizer vaccine developed...

www.google.com

 

[DisneyCane]

Realistically, if we keep adequate precautions in place, and people actually get the vaccine (opportunity doesn’t do anything, people have to actually get it), then we can drop all/most precautions by the end of the year.
Not realistic to keep precautions for another 8-10 months, to completely totally end a pandemic? I think it’s a pretty reasonable price. (If we actually strictly complied with masking, studies suggest we could totally wipe out the virus in 2 months).

You seem to be interchangeably saying "end a pandemic" and "wipe out the virus." The two are not the same. While the "pandemic" will end when the number of infections drop enough for it to no longer meet the definition, the SARS-CoV-2 virus will still be around, and likely forever. I don't know of any respected, peer reviewed study that remotely suggests that strict masking compliance could "wipe out" the virus.

If they did, Fauci would certainly be out there promoting them.

The CDC and Federal government may then have to start mandating more mitigation measures. But continued mitigation + vaccination can completely eradicate the virus in 6-9 months.

If we drop mitigation too early, then we will never eradicate the virus.

We will likely never eradicate the virus regardless of vaccinations or if mitigation was continued into 2121. With enough vaccinations, the number of infections will get very low and fatalities will be extremely low. They will likely never be zero because of how contagious the virus is and the fact that it spreads through the air. If your expectation is that nobody will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 and nobody will ever get sick with COVID-19 after a certain point, prepare to be disappointed. Your expectations are unrealistic.

 

[DisneyCane]

No...

Mayo Clinic findings show vaccine gives 75% protection 15 days after 1st dose, rising to 83% after 36 days; figure climbs to 89% for people who received both doses​

US study suggests efficacy of 1st Pfizer, Moderna shot increases with time

Mayo Clinic findings show vaccine gives 75% protection 15 days after 1st dose, rising to 83% after 36 days; figure climbs to 89% for people who received both doses

www.timesofisrael.com

Data analysis in a study by the Israeli Health Ministry andPfizer Inc found the Pfizer vaccine developed withGermany's BioNTech reduces infection, including inasymptomatic cases, by 89.4% and in syptomatic cases by 93.7%.

UPDATE 1-Israeli studies find Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine reduces transmission

Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccinegreatly reduces virus transmission, two Israeli studies havefound, shedding light on one of the biggest questions of theglobal effort to quash the pandemic. Data analysis in a study by the Israeli Health Ministry andPfizer Inc found the Pfizer vaccine developed...

www.google.com

These studies are focused on the effect of the vaccines on infection which is where these lower numbers come from. The 93.7% is symptomatic and very close to what the study used for the EUA found. Neither of these articles say anything about any serious symptomatic infections or fatalities which you seem to be trying to argue are prevalent in vaccinated people.

 

[correcaminos]

Actually, the evidence is piling up in

No...

Mayo Clinic findings show vaccine gives 75% protection 15 days after 1st dose, rising to 83% after 36 days; figure climbs to 89% for people who received both doses​

US study suggests efficacy of 1st Pfizer, Moderna shot increases with time

Mayo Clinic findings show vaccine gives 75% protection 15 days after 1st dose, rising to 83% after 36 days; figure climbs to 89% for people who received both doses

www.timesofisrael.com

Data analysis in a study by the Israeli Health Ministry andPfizer Inc found the Pfizer vaccine developed withGermany's BioNTech reduces infection, including inasymptomatic cases, by 89.4% and in syptomatic cases by 93.7%.

UPDATE 1-Israeli studies find Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine reduces transmission

Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccinegreatly reduces virus transmission, two Israeli studies havefound, shedding light on one of the biggest questions of theglobal effort to quash the pandemic. Data analysis in a study by the Israeli Health Ministry andPfizer Inc found the Pfizer vaccine developed...

www.google.com

Why so negative? Seriously 90% is freaking awesome let alone it being inclusive of asymptomatic cases. The 93.7% is reaaaaally close to trial studies that did not include asymptomatic cases. 94% is pretty darn awesome

 

[danlb_2000]

Realistically, if we keep adequate precautions in place, and people actually get the vaccine (opportunity doesn’t do anything, people have to actually get it), then we can drop all/most precautions by the end of the year.
Not realistic to keep precautions for another 8-10 months, to completely totally end a pandemic? I think it’s a pretty reasonable price. (If we actually strictly complied with masking, studies suggest we could totally wipe out the virus in 2 months).

You are not going to wipe out the virus in 8-10 months. There are to many people who won't get vaccinated, can't get vaccinated and won't follow the precautions, and we are only talking about the US. Other parts of the world are going to have an even harder time wiping it out. Sure, I would love to see it wiped out, but I am being realistic when I say I don't think that will happen.

I don't recall any reliable source saying we could wipe out the virus if we wore masks for 2 month. Dr. Robert Redfield said we could get the virus under control if we all wore masks for 2 months, but that's not the same a wiping it out. Masks are effective in controlling spread but masks alone aren't going to wipe out the virus.

 

[havoc315]

These studies are focused on the effect of the vaccines on infection which is where these lower numbers come from. The 93.7% is symptomatic and very close to what the study used for the EUA found. Neither of these articles say anything about any serious symptomatic infections or fatalities which you seem to be trying to argue are prevalent in vaccinated people.

I already provided those links, showing serious infection/hospitalization/death is also reduced by similar levels (95%), not eliminated.

My friend at the CDC expects continued mitigation measures for another 6-12 months.

 

[havoc315]

Why so negative? Seriously 90% is freaking awesome let alone it being inclusive of asymptomatic cases. The 93.7% is reaaaaally close to trial studies that did not include asymptomatic cases. 94% is pretty darn awesome

Negative?? I’m extremely positive. 90% is fantastic. With a 90% effective vaccine PLUS mitigation, we can eradicate Covid in 6-9 months. So I’d say I’m being extremely positive!!
I’m also very realistic — it’s not going to wipe out the need for mitigation in 1-2 months. It’s still going to take several more months.

 

[correcaminos]

Negative?? I’m extremely positive. 90% is fantastic. With a 90% effective vaccine PLUS mitigation, we can eradicate Covid in 6-9 months. So I’d say I’m being extremely positive!!
I’m also very realistic — it’s not going to wipe out the need for mitigation in 1-2 months. It’s still going to take several more months.

Could've fooled me. You're arguing that it is no where near 100% last I checked 90% is still close. You're arguing with all here in a negative way. 90% is not far short of 100% no matter how you argue it. 93-95% asymptomatic is amazing.

I won't even try to predict timelines. They are too fluid and things change.