Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[danlb_2000]

I fear many people will have that attitude but it’s not really the safe attitude.

First off, vaccination is far short of fully effective. It would be like saying, “as long as I wear my seatbelt, I can drive recklessly.”
The vaccination only reduces the likelihood of serious infection. So let’s say, you’d typically have a 50% chance of getting infected by being in a room with a Covid positive individual. By being vaccinated, it reduces that down to 5%. But if you rip off the mask and start partying with hundreds of Covid positive cases, you probably will get the infection eventually.

Thus, as long as disease is widespread in the community, a mask is still advisable for your own safety.

Further more, and even more importantly: though vaccination reduces transmission, we still don’t know how much it reduces transmission. Thus, even if you’re vaccinated, you can still pick up an asymptomatic infection and pass it to others.
Thus, until nearly everyone is vaccinated, masks should continue to protect the unvaccinated.

I suspect masks can go away when we get down to under 100 cases per day, nationwide. Or regionally... say when Florida is recording under 20 cases per day.

The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are as close to fully effective as you could hope to get. The trials showed significant protection from illness, and almost total protection from serious illness. There were also zero deaths in the vaccine group in the trials. Current evidence is showing that the real world results are similar to the trial results. Yes, they are not 100%, but based on everything we know it's not accurate to say they are "far short of fully effective".

 

[Chi84]

If you have been following what the federal govt and most states have been saying since mid January, my scenario is the most logical.

What I don’t understand is why everyone is focused on masks, masks are an annoyance but it’s the social distancing that is the biggest pain in my opinion.

I would much rather have resturants full, live sporting events with full stadiums, having all the plexiglass removed from the rides, rides running at full capacity, preshow back on, and all the entertainment back (although I wouldn’t mind the socially distant queues continuing) even if I had to wear a mask longer. I really think the masks will be the last to go.

My hope is that the mask mandates don't outlast the actual mask-wearing.

I was seeing near perfect compliance with masks where I live until a few months ago. Yesterday, I saw a line of people at the arboretum waiting to check out snowshoes - no social distancing and some were masked, others not. I'm seeing the same sort of thing at other businesses. Contrary to what people want to believe, businesses are not being shut down for noncompliance; no one is confronting these people, calling the police, etc. At most, they give them a bit more space.

I detest masks, but I'm a rule-follower. My fear is that I'm going to be the last one wearing them.

 

[danlb_2000]

My hope is that the mask mandates don't outlast the actual mask-wearing.

I was seeing near perfect compliance with masks where I live until a few months ago. Yesterday, I saw a line of people at the arboretum waiting to check out snowshoes - no social distancing and some were masked, others not. I'm seeing the same sort of thing at other businesses. Contrary to what people want to believe, businesses are not being shut down for noncompliance; no one is confronting these people, calling the police, etc.

I detest masks, but I'm a rule-follower. My fear is that I'm going to be the last one wearing them.

I definitly think there is going to be a period when people are prematurely dropping safety precautions of all kinds which may lead to a short term increase in cases. People just are patient with these sorts of things.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I definitly think there is going to be a period when people are prematurely dropping safety precautions of all kinds which may lead to a short term increase in cases. People just are patient with these sorts of things.

A co-worker of mine told me yesterday that masks do nothing and that politicians have no right to tell him what to do.

The scary thing is, he seems like a smart enough guy and at one time was a certified first responder. I don’t get it.

 

[bdearl41]

I fear many people will have that attitude but it’s not really the safe attitude.

First off, vaccination is far short of fully effective. It would be like saying, “as long as I wear my seatbelt, I can drive recklessly.”
The vaccination only reduces the likelihood of serious infection. So let’s say, you’d typically have a 50% chance of getting infected by being in a room with a Covid positive individual. By being vaccinated, it reduces that down to 5%. But if you rip off the mask and start partying with hundreds of Covid positive cases, you probably will get the infection eventually.

Thus, as long as disease is widespread in the community, a mask is still advisable for your own safety.

Further more, and even more importantly: though vaccination reduces transmission, we still don’t know how much it reduces transmission. Thus, even if you’re vaccinated, you can still pick up an asymptomatic infection and pass it to others.
Thus, until nearly everyone is vaccinated, masks should continue to protect the unvaccinated.

I suspect masks can go away when we get down to under 100 cases per day, nationwide. Or regionally... say when Florida is recording under 20 cases per day.

I’m simply saying I wear a mask 9-10 hours a day currently. I’m not doing that come late summer after I’m vaccinated. If that means I can’t go places so be it. I’m just done wearing it then.

 

[Chi84]

I definitly think there is going to be a period when people are prematurely dropping safety precautions of all kinds which may lead to a short term increase in cases. People just are patient with these sorts of things.

This is true. We're seeing more evidence every day that the vaccines are highly effective in preventing both illness and transmission of the virus. I just hope people will hang on and continue with mitigation efforts for the next few months because most are not yet vaccinated and the virus is mutating. From what I'm seeing in real life, there is no way people who are fully vaccinated are going to be wearing masks past summer.

 

[danlb_2000]

You may be right but you may also be wrong. Just like me.I was simply sharing my reasoning for why I think masks may go away quicker than some think. I know for me ( I’ll be last to get a vaccine due to age and need, so everyone will have access by then) I will stop wearing a mask about a month after my final shot. At that point it’s no longer about protecting someone else.

The problem with this is that in a lot of places there will be no practical way to treat people who are vaccinated differently then people who aren't. If your local supermarket still requires masks, they aren't going to make exceptions for people who are vaccinated even though they are low risk for spreading the virus.

 

[bdearl41]

People here already don’t wear masks in grocery stores and cases continue to go down. By end of summer cases will be so low I will not wear one either.

 

[havoc315]

All I can say regarding the statements I bolded - more and more research coming out (especially this week) is going to put validity of your statements in question.

Actually, the evidence is piling up in favor of my statements.

New data from Israel where half the population has already received 1 dose at least. Pfizer is 90% effective when fully vaccinated. 90% is still far short of 100%.

 

[havoc315]

People here already don’t wear masks in grocery stores and cases continue to go down. By end of summer cases will be so low I will not wear one either.

I wouldn’t step foot in those grocery stores. Around here, nearly 100% of people wear masks everywhere outside the home.

 

[havoc315]

The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are as close to fully effective as you could hope to get. The trials showed significant protection from illness, and almost total protection from serious illness. There were also zero deaths in the vaccine group in the trials. Current evidence is showing that the real world results are similar to the trial results. Yes, they are not 100%, but based on everything we know it's not accurate to say they are "far short of fully effective".

Data from Israel shows 90% effective... they have the greatest use of vaccination thus far.

90% is indeed far short of fully effective.

If I told you that your risk of getting seriously hurt on rollercoaster was 50%, you wouldn’t ride it.
now, if I said the safety harness reduces the risk by 90%... so there is “only” a 5% chance of getting seriously hurt on the roller coaster, would you ride it?

90% effective is fantastic if everyone is covered, so you have very few Covid contacts. That’s herd immunity.

But if you have a 90% effective vaccine... but you’re still coming into contact with thousands of active transmitting cases... tons of vaccinated people will still get sick.

 

[Chi84]

The problem with this is that in a lot of places there will be no practical way to treat people who are vaccinated differently then people who aren't. If your local supermarket still requires masks, they aren't going to make exceptions for people who are vaccinated even though they are low risk for spreading the virus.

I agree with you, but the point is that enforcement won't be possible if most people just decide not to comply. Local supermarkets in my area are no longer confronting people they way they did months ago. Like I said, I hope people can just make it a little longer until most are vaccinated.

 

[havoc315]

The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are as close to fully effective as you could hope to get. The trials showed significant protection from illness, and almost total protection from serious illness. There were also zero deaths in the vaccine group in the trials. Current evidence is showing that the real world results are similar to the trial results. Yes, they are not 100%, but based on everything we know it's not accurate to say they are "far short of fully effective".

Measles vaccine is 98% effective. Moderna and Pfizer are around 90%.. lower on the newer variants. That’s still excellent... not going to demean it. Fantastic. But still far short of fully effective.

 

[dreday3]

Actually, the evidence is piling up in favor of my statements.

New data from Israel where half the population has already received 1 dose at least. Pfizer is 90% effective when fully vaccinated. 90% is still far short of 100%.

 

[Polkadotdress]

When masks get removed will not be tied to vaccinations directly. They’re going to be removed when community spread stops. When a place hadn’t had a case in x amount of days (10-14) then the masks will go away. Not before that.

Unless you live in FL, where the governor has not yet, nor will he ever, institute a mask mandate.

 

[danlb_2000]

Data from Israel shows 90% effective... they have the greatest use of vaccination thus far.

90% is indeed far short of fully effective.

If I told you that your risk of getting seriously hurt on rollercoaster was 50%, you wouldn’t ride it.
now, if I said the safety harness reduces the risk by 90%... so there is “only” a 5% chance of getting seriously hurt on the roller coaster, would you ride it?

90% effective is fantastic if everyone is covered, so you have very few Covid contacts. That’s herd immunity.

But if you have a 90% effective vaccine... but you’re still coming into contact with thousands of active transmitting cases... tons of vaccinated people will still get sick.

Not sure where you are getting the 90% number from. The articles I have seen are saying 95% chance to completely prevent illness from the virus, and 99.2% chance of preventing serious illness. Those number are also across people of all ages and co-morbidities, so for younger health people it's an even better chance of preventing serious illness.

 

[MrHappy]

Measles vaccine is 98% effective. Moderna and Pfizer are around 90%.. lower on the newer variants. That’s still excellent... not going to demean it. Fantastic. But still far short of fully effective.

Huh?
Please don’t try and explain further.

 

[Touchdown]

Not sure where you are getting the 90% number from. The articles I have seen are saying 95% chance to completely prevent illness from the virus, and 99.2% chance of preventing serious illness. Those number are also across people of all ages and co-morbidities, so for younger health people it's an even better chance of preventing serious illness.

90% to prevent asymptomatic infection and thus a 90% reduction in a vaccinated person being able to spread the virus is what the Israel study shows.

 

[bdearl41]

Not sure where you are getting the 90% number from. The articles I have seen are saying 95% chance to completely prevent illness from the virus, and 99.2% chance of preventing serious illness. Those number are also across people of all ages and co-morbidities, so for younger health people it's an even better chance of preventing serious illness.

Along with the fact that exactly zero people fully vaccinated have been hospitalized or died due to Covid. That’s the point. The vaccines make Covid a cold. A mild one at that.

 

[havoc315]

Let's put this in perspective..

Imagine a community with rampant infection, no vaccination.
Now, imagine you drop 2 1,0000 person groups into the middle of this community..
Group A - 10,000 unvaccinated individuals, dropped into this community with wide virus spread. They don't use masks, they don't socially distance. Eventually, 80% will get infected before herd immunity. So 8000 of the 10,000 will get infected. Let's say there is a fatality rate of 1%... so out of the 8000 who get infected, 80 will die.

Now, group B -- 10,000 vaccinated individuals (90% effective vaccine) gets dropped into the middle of the community. Instead of 8,000 getting infected... it's down to 800. That's still a lot of people. Instead of 80 people dying, it's "only" 8 people. Now, evidence suggests the vaccines are even more effective against death -- closer to 98-99%. So, it may be "only" 1-2 deaths.

That's a great improvement. Going from 80 deaths per 10,000 people to 1-2 deaths per 10,000 people is fantastic. But is it enough to abandon masks? That would still equate to tens of thousands of deaths on a national level.

Point being: It's about community protection, not individual protection. If you eliminate widespread community infection -- then 90% effective vaccines can work to continue to keep the community safe.... no masks or social distancing required.
But as long as there is widespread community infection, then isolated vaccinations are not very protective.

The goal of the CDC and public health plans: Continue to use ALL measures: social distancing, masking, and vaccines to drive away the virus. Once the virus is basically gone, then vaccinations will prevent it from coming back.