Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Yup, it is going to be brutal. The company I'm consulting for will be laying off thousands. When these companies with huge debt loads start hitting their debt covenants, it is going to be ugly. The worst part could be is this how we are going to react to every virus that comes along? We didn't shut the world down for Swine, Bird, Ebola, etc.

Is this the new normal? Are we going to "abundance of caution" ourselves into a depression every couple of years? Or have we now created a "cry wolf" situation where after everyone realizes that this virus is not the Black Plague of Death we won't be willing to do anything when a really deadly one comes along after seeing what devastation was done to the economy?

Doesn’t the bold above answer your question on whether this is the new norm? This has not been the reaction to every virus that has come along. This one is different.

On the “cry wolf” question its kinda hard for people to say this turned out to be nothing. That ship sailed. Even if this blows over in a month without a major increase in deaths how can anyone know whether the extreme social distancing happening right now was the cause of the positive outcome or if it would have happened anyway? I doubt any government official is going to enter into these extreme measures again lightly going forward. It’s going to take a while for the economy to recover.

 

[GoofGoof]

Wall Street investment banking

Banks are going to take a big hit. They are the ones holding the loans that will go under. It doesn’t help that oil prices tanked at the same time due at least partially to the Russian/OPEC dispute. All those loans for oil drilling, exploration and fracking are looking real suspect too. That’s billions of potential losses too. Have to hope some of the stimulus helps and jobs recover quickly.

 

[celluloid]

There is no point to being tested unless you are miserable and feel you need to be quarantined and feel near death. If you feel like you have a low fever and a cold, there is no cure, you are more selfish for being tested then the freedom you would have had at a theme park not feeling sick.
Hang on everyone. I speak as a hypochondriac who believes in better safe than sorry.
If you are of average health,relax. Trust your doc.

 

[Isher]

Yes, we do.

I was really hoping for more than that.

I look at the images and I don’t see where these trenches for mass graves have been dug.
Can someone please point them out to me?

 

[RobWDW1971]

Doesn’t the bold above answer your question on whether this is the new norm? This has not been the reaction to every virus that has come along. This one is different.

On the “cry wolf” question its kinda hard for people to say this turned out to be nothing. That ship sailed. Even if this blows over in a month without a major increase in deaths how can anyone know whether the extreme social distancing happening right now was the cause of the positive outcome or if it would have happened anyway? I doubt any government official is going to enter into these extreme measures again lightly going forward. It’s going to take a while for the economy to recover.

I just think this is a very different social climate - this is our first social media "emergency". Think back to those previous viruses - we got our information in newspapers, nightly news broadcasts, and CNN. We didn't live in this insane social media echo chamber. Millions of people were infected with the Swine Flu and it attacked young people back in 2009, but we didn't have this social media dynamic like we have today as Twitter was in its infancy, etc.

You're absolutely right we will never be able to compare the "what if we didn't do anything" scenario because we have no control case.

That's why I always go back to what is an acceptable fatality rate/number of elderly/pre-existing condition deaths? If the flu kills 40K+ a year and this also kills 40K, is that good? Bad? Was it worth shutting down the entire economy for it?

That is what will be the interesting legacy of this going forward.

 

[JohnD]

It is cancelled. Postponed til June.

**edit** let me verify this.. I was told it was postponed.. I’ll look it up to be sure

Edit 2- looks like it’s pending..

Florida has a primary tomorrow. If has not been canceled.

 

[JohnD]

I have a doctor's appoint tomorrow with my sleep apnea doctor. They called today to confirm I was going because so many patients didn't show today. I also have my 6 month appointment with my GP on Thursday. I refuse to stop living but will only go out for things I have to do. I am not sick but don't want to take chances. I had to cancel my April WDW trip but rescheduled for June. I am ready to change that if I have to but was glad to hear that the Federal Government expects my September trip to be fine. The key to this ending is actually up to us older people protecting ourselves and not coming into contact with others. The UK may be right and we should self isolate for 4 months.

Of course. Continue living life and do what’s necessary. Trips to WDW can always wait. I said I wouldn’t cancel until WDW canceled on me. They did. Rescheduled for last week in May. Hope I can keep it. If not. Oh well. I’ll look at the fall.

 

[Nubs70]

According to this article 1000,00 people have this virus.

Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus

That is the most colossal unadulterated pile of bull

 

[21stamps]

That is the most colossal unadulterated pile of bull.

yes, yes it is.

 

[seascape]

Yup, it is going to be brutal. The company I'm consulting for will be laying off thousands. When these companies with huge debt loads start hitting their debt covenants, it is going to be ugly. The worst part could be is this how we are going to react to every virus that comes along? We didn't shut the world down for Swine, Bird, Ebola, etc.

Is this the new normal? Are we going to "abundance of caution" ourselves into a depression every couple of years? Or have we now created a "cry wolf" situation where after everyone realizes that this virus is not the Black Plague of Death we won't be willing to do anything when a really deadly one comes along after seeing what devastation was done to the economy?

That is exactly what I have been saying would happen. The country would be better off if nothing were done and the disease ran it's course. Yes, lots of older folks and those infirmed would die but the price that is going to be paid by all those under 60 is too high. We could easily have a Depression as a result of this and then massive tax increases and inflation. Too bad the media never covered what would happen after the economic shutdown.

We should have had the trade war with China years ago. We need more economic independence. The globalization with China stealing from us and our government under Obama, Clinton and both Bush Administrations are to blame. Yes, Trump should have taken some steps sooner but we had the fastest infection to vaccine testing ever.

 

[RobWDW1971]

I was really hoping for more than that.

I look at the images and I don’t see where these trenches for mass graves have been dug.
Can someone please point them out to me?

Keep looking. Even in China (take the numbers with a grain of salt, but for directional purposes), so far 3,213 people have died, ~68K people have fully recovered, there are ~10K active cases, of those ~3K are serious. So assume all the serious die, which of course they will not, but that gets us to ~6K.

6,000 people in China. So let's assume worst case that all of those people died in Hubei province where Wuhan is located (which they didn't) out of population of 58 million people.

That means .001% died in the Death Trap of Wuhan. And that is with no prevention, horrible health care, and the government trying to hide it. Yes, they helped knock it down by locking the country down as they can do in a Communist state, but the scale of the deaths even in the worst situation so far is beyond miniscule.

 

[Isher]

If they really wanted to keep the parks open for guests who were already there and had days left on a multi-day pass they could have banned all AP holders. That would have at least reduced crowd size and AP holders are getting credit for days lost so nobody would be out money. I still think they should have just announced after park close on Thursday and never opened the parks again on Friday.

I was there. I would say 70% of the crowd last night were just the CPs that had their program come to an end. Most of them would’ve been working somewhere in the parks anyhow, but took it off to have one last hurrah. Nowhere near massive crowds, just a whole lot of very sad CPs saying their goodbye to all the friends they made and a whole lot of rides running at VERY limited capacity because there was hardly anyone there to staff them.

Oh, and before anyone lambasts me for going last night... I don’t care what you have to say. I know my situation. I took the necessary precautions.

 

[Isher]

Keep looking. Even in China (take the numbers with a grain of salt, but for directional purposes), so far 3,213 people have died, ~68K people have fully recovered, there are ~10K active cases, of those ~3K are serious. So assume all the serious die, which of course they will not, but that gets us to ~6K.

6,000 people in China. So let's assume worst case that all of those people died in Hubei province where Wuhan is located (which they didn't) out of population of 58 million people.

That means .001% died in the Death Trap of Wuhan. And that is with no prevention, horrible health care, and the government trying to hide it. Yes, they helped knock it down by locking the country down as they can do in a Communist state, but the scale of the deaths even in the worst situation so far is beyond miniscule.

Did you mean to quote me?

 

[RobWDW1971]

Did you mean to quote me?

Referring to anyone looking for mass graves - making a more general point not specifically to yours.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Is this the new normal? Are we going to "abundance of caution" ourselves into a depression every couple of years?

The depression if we have one will have been triggered by the virus, but the real cause is the massive and unsustainable pyramid of debt that was deliberately created through central bank policies all over the world.

Once, it was considered normal and prudent to minimize borrowing, pay off debt and keep some cash available for rainy days. Printing money to "stimulate growth" via artificially low interest rates was a suicidal policy.

The pyramid of debt would have come crashing down anyways. If it wasn't because of the virus it would have been caused by one of many other factors such as a weather event, war or because the growth of debt simply became unsustainable.

 

[Isher]

Referring to anyone looking for mass graves - making a more general point not specifically to yours.

Okay. I appreciated your post. Even if the death rate remains relatively low like you said, you still think there will be countries digging mass graves? Why would that be? Wouldn’t people want to bury their loved ones themselves?

 

[erasure fan1]

The worst part could be is this how we are going to react to every virus that comes along?

Well hopefully not. Hopefully they jump on things quicker and take it more seriously from the start. That way we don't go from zero to shut the world down in 5min.

 

[hopemax]

Italy is going to surpass China's death total this week. Are people going to start using Italy's numbers as a baseline then? We at least don't have the same fears about "cooked books" with Italy's numbers. So those would be the more accurate ones to use for those countries who did not institute the Asian-level of response in the early part of this outbreak, right?

 

[Josh Hendy]

There is no point to being tested unless you are miserable and feel you need to be quarantined and feel near death.

The other reason to be tested is that in case you're a carrier who has none or mild symptoms, you can quarantine yourself and not spread the disease to loved ones and others.

 

[LittleBuford]

I just think this is a very different social climate - this is our first social media "emergency". Think back to those previous viruses - we got our information in newspapers, nightly news broadcasts, and CNN. We didn't live in this insane social media echo chamber. Millions of people were infected with the Swine Flu and it attacked young people back in 2009, but we didn't have this social media dynamic like we have today as Twitter was in its infancy, etc.

You're absolutely right we will never be able to compare the "what if we didn't do anything" scenario because we have no control case.

That's why I always go back to what is an acceptable fatality rate/number of elderly/pre-existing condition deaths? If the flu kills 40K+ a year and this also kills 40K, is that good? Bad? Was it worth shutting down the entire economy for it?

That is what will be the interesting legacy of this going forward.

What you're saying would make sense if the reaction were limited to social media. But it isn't. It's being spearheaded by experts, health officials, and governments. I don't think I've ever seen the world's leaders this united over anything. That should tell us something.