Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disney Experience]

Vaccines are curbing COVID: Data from Israel show drop in infections

The country is the first to see a direct effect of vaccines working in such a large group of people.

www.nature.com

Israel provides first signs of mass vaccination driving down virus cases

Data from country with fastest rollout offers clear indication that jabs are slowing pandemic

www.ft.com

And the paper itself:

hrossman/Patterns-of-covid-19-pandemic-dynamics-following-deployment-of-a-broad-national-immunization-program

Contribute to hrossman/Patterns-of-covid-19-pandemic-dynamics-following-deployment-of-a-broad-national-immunization-program development by creating an account on GitHub.

github.com

 

[Epcot_Imagineer]

Question - has anyone brought up the new Corona health warnings in Epcot? Unsure if it's anywhere else, just noticed it there. No longer just Tom Kane's voice? Such a shame about him, I hope he recovers.

 

[Figgy1]

Numbers are out - there were 210 new reported deaths, along with 5 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

View attachment 529676View attachment 529677View attachment 529678View attachment 529679

Was there a data dump today?

 

[havoc315]

I see it as a combination of government message delivery and scientific ignorance.

The government says thou shall without trying to convince the populace. There is no voluntary persuasion. Voluntary Persuasion being explaining the argument to the individual then the individual voluntarily coming to the conclusion.

Scientific Ignorance in percentages. If a vaccine is 92% effective, the vaccine is also 8% ineffective. That means, if all 350MM US citizens are vaccinated, the vaccine will be ineffective for 28MM people.

First -- the government does undertake persuasion efforts. That's why they hold briefings, that's why they publicize politicians getting the vaccine, former Presidents getting it. And there will be more of an advertising campaign later on. But there is distrust of government among some elements, so deep, that persuasion will never work.

And that's not how "effectiveness" is measured. 92% effective means that in testing, the vaccine group sustained 92% less infections than the placebo group.
In reality -- If 350 million Americans received a vaccine that was 92% effective, the disease would quickly practically disappear. Because it can't spread fast enough for sustained spread.

Example -- The mumps vaccine is 88% effective -- There are under 10,000 cases per year now, usually under 3,000..

Measles vaccine is about 97% effective.. there are typically only 100-200 measles cases per year.

A vaccine that is 92% effective could effectively wipe out Covid to a similar degree as measles and mumps.

 

[havoc315]

If we believe the manufacturers are going to meet their targets, by July 1 at the latest we should have 100M doses of JnJ for 100M people and also 400M doses of Pfizer and Moderna combined for 200M people. That’s 300M people vaccinated and by July 1 there will likely not be more than 280M Americans approved since under 12 won’t be authorized yet.

In an even more optimistic view, Pfizer says their 200M will be delivered by the end of May now instead of June, JnJ alluded to having their 100M by end of April or May at the latest and Moderna said they are on track for Q1 and Q2 deliveries. Assuming an even rollout for Moderna we should have at least 160M doses by May 31 with the last 40M coming in June. Based on that timeline by May 31 we should have enough doses for 280M Americans or every man, woman and child over 11 years old. That doesn‘t include Novavax or AstraZenneca if they get approved some time before May 31.

I agree that the time is coming soon where the biggest challenge will be finding people to take the vaccine instead of finding doses to meet the demand.

One slight error with your math -- Delivery of 500m doses by July 1st does not mean 500m shots by July 1st. Could easily take another 4-6 weeks to distribute and vaccinate the doses that are delivered in late June.

But yes... optimistically, we will have enough vaccine for everyone who wants it by the summer. Pessimistically -- how many people will resist getting it. And will variants blow by the vaccination schedule.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I'm scared about next month, is going to be big UK surge...I'm scared....I hope there will be back to normal by June or July/August, will NJ will lift COVID 19 restrictions (masks and social) maybe April/May or June? Will there will be enough people to get vaccine by September/October/November then we will never get another winter surge by next winter ever again. I'm scared.

 

[Darkprime]

Bold prediction: Biden will lift all COVID restrictions just in time for July 4th. They know no one will lose another summer to social distancing. Its an uphill battle as it is just getting people vaccinated. Telling people to social distance for another summer good luck with that. That gives them about 5-6 months between now and then to get the pandemic under control. I think its doable. If they can mandate masks for 100 days.

 

[Jrb1979]

Bold prediction: Biden will lift all COVID restrictions just in time for July 4th. They know no one will lose another summer to social distancing. Its an uphill battle as it is just getting people vaccinated. Telling people to social distance for another summer good luck with that. That gives them about 5-6 months between now and then to get the pandemic under control. I think its doable. If they can mandate masks for 100 days.

Here in Canada social distancing and masks are expected to stay for at least the end of the year. Summer here will be similar to last summer.

 

[GoofGoof]

One slight error with your math -- Delivery of 500m doses by July 1st does not mean 500m shots by July 1st. Could easily take another 4-6 weeks to distribute and vaccinate the doses that are delivered in late June.

But yes... optimistically, we will have enough vaccine for everyone who wants it by the summer. Pessimistically -- how many people will resist getting it. And will variants blow by the vaccination schedule.

True, they will have to hold some doses back for 2nd shots, but once the eligibility opens up to everyone there‘s no reason to assume the shots won’t be given within a week or 2 of delivery at most (Besides the 2nd shots that have to wait). If we get to enough dose for 280M people by May 31 then there may be about 20 to 30M people still getting their 2nd shot of Pfizer or Moderna in June and/or a few million stragglers getting their JnJ shots in June if the deliveries were made in late May. Outside of kids under 12 there’s a shot every American who wants a vaccine will be fully done by June 30 if everything stays on target.

 

[GoofGoof]

Here in Canada social distancing and masks are expected to stay for at least the end of the year. Summer here will be similar to last summer.

That’s too bad. I would not be happy if our government just conceded that restrictions are going to be around for another year. I get that vaccine deliveries are not always in the control of the government, but it’s still a tough pill to swallow and especially since we are one month into the year seems a little early to throw in the towel.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

Bold prediction: Biden will lift all COVID restrictions just in time for July 4th. They know no one will lose another summer to social distancing. Its an uphill battle as it is just getting people vaccinated. Telling people to social distance for another summer good luck with that. That gives them about 5-6 months between now and then to get the pandemic under control. I think its doable. If they can mandate masks for 100 days.

My only issue with that is that seems a little too cliche to open on July 4th. But oh well I guess Joe and Kamala want some patriotism after a year and a half of literal suffering which I completely understand

 

[DisneyFan32]

That’s too bad. I would not be happy if our government just conceded that restrictions are going to be around for another year. I get that vaccine deliveries are not always in the control of the government, but it’s still a tough pill to swallow and especially since we are one month into the year seems a little early to throw in the towel.

When US will lift restrictions maybe June or July like get rid of masks and social stuff?

 

[Darkprime]

Here in Canada social distancing and masks are expected to stay for at least the end of the year. Summer here will be similar to last summer.

I wouldn't be so sure. I think once America lifts all of its COVID restrictions other countries would quickly follow. Regardless of their own COVID situation.

 

[Jrb1979]

I wouldn't be so sure. I think once America lifts all of its COVID restrictions other countries would quickly follow. Regardless of their own COVID situation.

I doubt it. Most of Canada won't be vaccinated til the end of the year at best.

 

[GoofGoof]

When US will lift restrictions maybe June or July like get rid of masks and social stuff?

No way of knowing. I think Israel is going to be a good place to watch. They are at 22% of their population already vaccinated with 2 doses and 38% with at least 1. We should get a good indication of how fast cases can/will drop watching them since we are a month or 2 behind them. I think restrictions will be relaxed gradually but won’t be fully gone until cases drop way down.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

That’s too bad. I would not be happy if our government just conceded that restrictions are going to be around for another year. I get that vaccine deliveries are not always in the control of the government, but it’s still a tough pill to swallow and especially since we are one month into the year seems a little early to throw in the towel.

Canada has consistently said "September" for widespread access to vaccines. There was never any suggestion of being ready for Summer.

 

[GoofGoof]

I doubt it. Most of Canada won't be vaccinated til the end of the year at best.

That shouldn’t happen. If the US is mostly done with their vaccination deliveries by June 30 (400M from Pfizer and Moderna combined plus 100M from JnJ) that covers all Americans who will want one and then some and we are still scheduled to receive 200M more doses in Q3 from Pfizer and Moderna. That also doesn’t factor in AstraZeneca or Novavax. The US is on the hook to buy 100M doses of each once approved. Essentially, if both vaccines are approved we will likely have enough excess doses for 200M people. It would make a lot of sense to sell some of our excess to our neighbors up north. Considering Canada has 38M people we will have more than enough doses to sell you to cover the whole population by Sept 30 if not sooner. There’s no reason most of Canada should not be vaccinated at the end of 2021.

 

[GoofGoof]

Canada has consistently said "September" for widespread access to vaccines. There was never any suggestion of being ready for Summer.

Summer here is still in question too since we have no idea how many people will take the vaccine and how long it will take to drive cases down, but I’m optimistic it will be much better than last summer.

 

[danlb_2000]

Bold prediction: Biden will lift all COVID restrictions just in time for July 4th. They know no one will lose another summer to social distancing. Its an uphill battle as it is just getting people vaccinated. Telling people to social distance for another summer good luck with that. That gives them about 5-6 months between now and then to get the pandemic under control. I think its doable. If they can mandate masks for 100 days.

The federal government has little control over restrictions, most are mandated by the states or below.

 

[Darkprime]

Summer here is still in question too since we have no idea how many people will take the vaccine and how long it will take to drive cases down, but I’m optimistic it will be much better than last summer.

The US has been doing about 1M vaccinations a day. And the numbers have only been going up. Vaccine acceptance has also been going up to.