Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Bill in Atlanta]

In reference to your post about protecting the high risk as the solution, that’s not a plan, that’s a politically slanted talking point pushed by the “open everything now“ crowd.

If one of the political parties attached themselves to this idea for nefarious reasons, that's on them. What I have said about protecting the high risk is a common sense approach that we use daily in almost every other area of life.

In order for that plan to work you would have to isolate all of the high risk individuals and then have the government pay them to not work or leave their homes. For high risk individuals who live in multi-generational homes or in homes with children or spouses who are not high risk it would mean creating some form of housing to send those people to. In a simple example a father of 3 is high risk for medical reasons so has to be isolated. He would need to either require his wife and 3 kids to also isolate (no work for the wife, no school for the kids) and lock their home down or he would have to go live in a temporary location established for isolating the high risk like a hotel or a dorm.

The next problem is how do you replace those workers in the very economy you want to protect? There are over 10M active workers in the 65+ demographic in addition to well over 100M Americans 64 and under with medical conditions that put them at high risk for Covid. If Even half those workers could be shifted to remote work that still leaves a massive 50M+ workers who cannot work due to required isolation. That’s way more of an impact to the economy than the jobs furloughed and lost due to Covid restrictions. All of those people would need to be made whole by the government so trillions more in cost than what was spent. That also doesn’t factor in the emotional impact of telling millions of Americans they need to isolate themselves for a year+ and potentially either not see their spouses and kids or subject them to the same isolation.

The other issue is the isolate the high risk plan also doesn’t guarantee the economy isn’t still in ruins. The punch line of the theory is while the elderly are locked away the rest of the country goes about business as usual. That’s not likely to have happened. Take FL as a good example. Since Sept there have been no statewide restrictions on businesses yet restaurants, bars, theme parks and hotels are all suffering greatly. Removing government restrictions isn’t a magic pill to return the economy to normal. Lots of people are just not going to fully participate in the economy while cases surge.

What would be an interesting study would be how well did businesses due when cases were low vs when they spiked. I would assume there’s some uptick in business in a lower case environment. In other words if we all did our part (including the government) and we followed through on testing and tracing and kept cases more controlled would the economy have done better? In places like Australia and New Zealand that certainly seems to be the case. Even parts of Europe that had a lull in cases this past summer had a better economic boom than what we experienced here. In other words the biggest negative to the economy wasn’t businesses that were closed by the government it was a lack of control of Covid cases.

Don't misunderstand - I have never said any solution would be a cure-all. The moment the first covid-19 particle infected the first person in Wuhan China, there was going to be great suffering and death. Some from the virus, some from the reaction to the virus. Some still from the long term ripple effect of both.

We were basically put into the driver's seat going 65 mph headed for an embankment. We had to swerve one direction or the other; either way there was going to be damage.

You and I have had some good discussions here. But let me ask you this. If someone came to you and said "We should make the lockdowns permanent; it would save more lives", how would you respond? And what reasons would you give?

 

[Touchdown]

Here’s what should have happened:
-Stopping international travel in December completely and requiring a rigorously enforced 14 day quarantine for citizens returning
-Fast tracking a testing program
-Hiring and empowering an army of contact tracers
-Targeted total lockdowns when an outbreak happened.
ie Fortress America.

That’s how we could have protected the at risk, and done the least damage to the Economy. But guess what, half the country would have revolted over a loss of their freedom, just like they are now, and instead we half donkeyed it to the ruin of all, elderly died, the economy tanked. No one won because no one was willing to deal with the inconvenience.

There’s your solution Bill in Atlanta. Bet you wouldn’t have agreed with it.

 

[GoofGoof]

If one of the political parties attached themselves to this idea for nefarious reasons, that's on them. What I have said about protecting the high risk is a common sense approach that we use daily in almost every other area of life.



Don't misunderstand - I have never said any solution would be a cure-all. The moment the first covid-19 particle infected the first person in Wuhan China, there was going to be great suffering and death. Some from the virus, some from the reaction to the virus. Some still from the long term ripple effect of both.

We were basically put into the driver's seat going 65 mph headed for an embankment. We had to swerve one direction or the other; either way there was going to be damage.

You and I have had some good discussions here. But let me ask you this. If someone came to you and said "We should make the lockdowns permanent; it would save more lives", how would you respond? And what reasons would you give?

I think where we disagree is on how easy it is to isolate the high risk. If it was a more limited number of people it may have been more doable as a plan. The best way to protect the high risk was to reduce community spread. Less spread means less chance of being infected. We couldn’t even protect the elderly in nursing homes where they are by default isolated because they still had to interact with other people.

The notion that lockdowns would be permanent is not based in reality. Nobody is saying that except people opposed to being restricted who use it as a talking point to make restrictions seem worse. Should we oppose reducing the speed limit on a highway in snow or fog out of fear that they may never raise it back up? Should we oppose the closing of a barrier island in a hurricane out of fear it will never open back up? Nobody thinks that way and we shouldn’t for Covid either. There isn’t a coalition of anti-social trolls who prefer staying home indefinitely calling the shots (they probably do exist but they aren’t in charge). We have freely elected government and if they wanted to make a lockdown permanent they would be voted out of office.

One other point is we don’t have lockdowns right now. People in the vast majority of places are not being asked to stay home. Retail stores are mostly all open, construction jobs continue, manufacturing, agriculture, gyms, barbershops all still open most places. On a national level the only things that are still restricted are bars/restaurants, large group gatherings like sports arenas and in limited places theme parks and venues that host large events like weddings. So based on that list do I think there’s any chance bars and restaurants stay takeout only forever or we permanently cancel all large weddings and pro sports with fans in the stands? Not a chance. We have 2 (soon to be 3) approved vaccines and the rollout is ramping up. We have several months of restrictions to make it through before those restrictions start to be loosened permanently. We have to keep our eye on the ball. The vaccines are great but they will work even faster if we all follow recommendations now and they have a lower starting point to reduce from.

How many people would agree to full compliance with restrictions for 4 more months if that meant a significant start of a return to normal by June 1? I’d say almost everyone would sign on for that. Unfortunately if we let spread run rampant it may take several more months to get that same effect. Is it worth it to do a few things you can’t do today for a few months if that means we lose the summer? I would be glad to buckle down now and have a great summer. Unfortunately if the masses do what they have done all along it won’t go that way. People will cry covid fatigue and will want to resist even more as cases come down from the vaccine. Hopefully it won’t matter. I really don’t want another broke summer.

 

[MaryJaneP]

If normal protocols had been stringently followed (i.e. masks, distancing, washing, testing, isolation of those carrying the virus), would we have dealt with this better? Even with the anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers, a signifcantly different path may have been possible. We may never know.

 

[mmascari]

Do you consider ICU patients with depleted immune systems "isolated"? The doctors & nurses who care for these folks have for decades been allowed to live normal lives outside of work.

Their dedication to proven hygiene methods inside the medical facility is what keeps those patients free of infection. This is what we should have tried to do for the highest-risk population.

We know that a person 75+ who has covid-19 is 33x more likely to die than a person under 75 who has covid-19.
The odds are similar for those 55+ with at least one comorbidity.
That is, and has always been, the highest-risk population.
From the start, our efforts should have reflected that reality.

So we should have checked the 20+ million age 75+ people into the ICU so they could have the same level of ICU isolation?

No worries, that's only 180+ times more ICU capacity than the country has. No big deal.

Or, we should have turned the residence where 20+ million people live into ICU like facilities and then found people staff them to the same restrictions as an ICU? Because none of those people we're turning into staff also live in those same residences? I suppose we could just turn one room in each residence into a mini ICU and contain the 20+ million people to that room while drafting all other occupants to become ICU like staff. Bathrooms should be fun. Hopefully the draftees didn't have other responsibilities beyond providing care.

Am I missing something? Is there some other "isolate everyone age 75+ like they're in an ICU" plan that I'm just not seeing?

 

[DCBaker]

"Today, the Florida Department of Health called for an audit of the Palm Beach County Health Care District after they reported damage to more than 1,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine last week. All vaccination providers participating in the COVID-19 Vaccination Program must store and handle COVID-19 vaccines under proper conditions to maintain the cold chain as outlined in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Vaccine Storage and Handling Toolkit. As a part of this audit, the Florida Department of Health is asking that the Palm Beach County Health Care District perform a full accounting of all vaccine-related equipment and procedures it has in place to store and handle the COVID-19 vaccine. The Department has requested that this audit be completed by the Health Care District by Friday, February 12, 2021, and that all findings and corrective actions be reported to the Florida Department of Health immediately upon the conclusion of the audit."

Florida State Surgeon General Dr. Scott Rivkees said, "It is a tragedy that even one dose of this critical resource would go to waste and not be used to save a life from COVID-19. In Florida, we have been diligent to preserve and utilize every single dose of the vaccine. While we must rely on partners to distribute this critical resource, we expect that every provider treat the vaccine as the precious commodity that it is. We hope to see this situation rectified and addressed immediately to ensure the Palm Beach County Health Care District does not let one more dose go to waste.”

Florida Department of Health Calls for Audit of Palm Beach County Health Care District Following Damage to More Than 1,000 Doses of Vaccine | Florida Department of Health

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Today, the Florida Department of Health called for an audit of the Palm Beach County Health Care District after they reported damage to more than 1,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine last week. All vaccination providers participating in the COVID-19 Vaccination Program must store...

www.floridahealth.gov

 

[Polkadotdress]

"Today, the Florida Department of Health called for an audit of the Palm Beach County Health Care District after they reported damage to more than 1,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine last week. All vaccination providers participating in the COVID-19 Vaccination Program must store and handle COVID-19 vaccines under proper conditions to maintain the cold chain as outlined in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Vaccine Storage and Handling Toolkit. As a part of this audit, the Florida Department of Health is asking that the Palm Beach County Health Care District perform a full accounting of all vaccine-related equipment and procedures it has in place to store and handle the COVID-19 vaccine. The Department has requested that this audit be completed by the Health Care District by Friday, February 12, 2021, and that all findings and corrective actions be reported to the Florida Department of Health immediately upon the conclusion of the audit."

Florida State Surgeon General Dr. Scott Rivkees said, "It is a tragedy that even one dose of this critical resource would go to waste and not be used to save a life from COVID-19. In Florida, we have been diligent to preserve and utilize every single dose of the vaccine. While we must rely on partners to distribute this critical resource, we expect that every provider treat the vaccine as the precious commodity that it is. We hope to see this situation rectified and addressed immediately to ensure the Palm Beach County Health Care District does not let one more dose go to waste.”

Florida Department of Health Calls for Audit of Palm Beach County Health Care District Following Damage to More Than 1,000 Doses of Vaccine | Florida Department of Health

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Today, the Florida Department of Health called for an audit of the Palm Beach County Health Care District after they reported damage to more than 1,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine last week. All vaccination providers participating in the COVID-19 Vaccination Program must store...

www.floridahealth.gov

Is this in addition to the 3000+ that were reported as damaged/unused recently in totality?

 

[DCBaker]

Is this in addition to the 3000+ that were reported as damaged/unused recently in totality?

This reportedly happened last week -

"The mistake was discovered on Jan. 22 when officials realized 232 vials, which is approximately 1,160 doses, were too warm. Palm Beach County Health Care District leaders blame the issue on human error."

"In a statement, the Health Care District said: "It was determined this incident was caused when the power supply for a refrigerator storing the vaccine on our mobile unit at an outreach site was unintentionally turned off."

The compromised vaccine was destroyed and all vaccines that have been administered were safe."

Florida Dept. of Health calls for audit of Health Care District of Palm Beach Co. for spoiled vaccine

The Florida Department of Health is calling for an audit of the Palm Beach County Health Care District after more than 1,000 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine were spoiled last week.

www.wpbf.com

 

[dreday3]

Got my second Moderna dose this morning!

I will let you know if can leap tall buildings in a single bound soon!

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 197 new reported deaths, along with 6 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[zweltar]

I was fortunate enough to get my first dose of Phizer yesterday. Thankful to live in a state that prioritized educators in the vaccine rollout (group 1B).

 

[danlb_2000]

If the "isolate the high risk" plan was even viable, it would bring up another issue. The idea behind that plan is you have very strict isolation of the high risk people, while allowing everyone else to go about their lives with no restrictions. On the flip side, what we currently have is reasonable restrictions on everyone, but nobody has to be completely isolated. Is one option really better then the other?

The bottom line on "isolate the high risk" is that even it was a viable plan, you would have a lot of people not buy into it. You can't get everyone to wear masks, are you really going to convince high risk people to totally give up their freedom?

 

[zurj]

Do you consider ICU patients with depleted immune systems "isolated"? The doctors & nurses who care for these folks have for decades been allowed to live normal lives outside of work.

Their dedication to proven hygiene methods inside the medical facility is what keeps those patients free of infection. This is what we should have tried to do for the highest-risk population.

We know that a person 75+ who has covid-19 is 33x more likely to die than a person under 75 who has covid-19.
The odds are similar for those 55+ with at least one comorbidity.
That is, and has always been, the highest-risk population.
From the start, our efforts should have reflected that reality.

I don't know how long you've been following this forum, but the vast majority of posters here do not want to hear rational, well-thought solutions and they certainly don't want to know any statistics to put this in perspective, other than how much worse (insert coronavirus related dilemma) is than (said coronavirus related dilemma) could have been, if only things had been handled correctly by whatever (hindsight is 20/20) standard they (retroactively) impose. They want you to know that whatever you suggest is dangerous and insensitive to the (insert group) who wouldn't be able to completely implement whatever unreasonable thing it is you're suggesting, so the onus is now on you to comply with their demands that are deeply rooted in science (no, not the science that they choose to ignore that contradicts their narrative and you better not bring that up here). No matter what the (death toll/percent positive/total numbers/number of vaccines distributed/number of vaccines lost/number of asymptomatic carriers/percentage of ICU left/number of hospitalized patients) is, it is always awful and if we don't stop doing in our lives whatever they think we need to stop doing in our lives to make whoever they think may be affected by our actions statistically slightly less at risk, then we lack compassion and if we only had stopped doing whatever it was they think we needed to stop doing in our lives to make whoever they think may have been affected by our actions statistically slightly less at risk, we wouldn't have to be *checks watch* 11 months into the 15 day thing.

 

[correcaminos]

I don't know how long you've been following this forum, but the vast majority of posters here do not want to hear rational, well-thought solutions and they certainly don't want to know any statistics to put this in perspective, other than how much worse (insert coronavirus related dilemma) is than (said coronavirus related dilemma) could have been, if only things had been handled correctly by whatever (hindsight is 20/20) standard they (retroactively) impose. They want you to know that whatever you suggest is dangerous and insensitive to the (insert group) who wouldn't be able to completely implement whatever unreasonable thing it is you're suggesting, so the onus is now on you to comply with their demands that are deeply rooted in science (no, not the science that they choose to ignore that contradicts their narrative and you better not bring that up here). No matter what the (death toll/percent positive/total numbers/number of vaccines distributed/number of vaccines lost/number of asymptomatic carriers/percentage of ICU left/number of hospitalized patients) is, it is always awful and if we don't stop doing in our lives whatever they think we need to stop doing in our lives to make whoever they think may be affected by our actions statistically slightly less at risk, then we lack compassion and if we only had stopped doing whatever it was they think we needed to stop doing in our lives to make whoever they think may have been affected by our actions statistically slightly less at risk, we wouldn't have to be *checks watch* 11 months into the 15 day thing.

Science contradicting narratives? Like real science? I'd like to see that. Clearly the US is most awesome in how it was handled and I just missed it.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I don't know how long you've been following this forum, but the vast majority of posters here do not want to hear rational, well-thought solutions and they certainly don't want to know any statistics to put this in perspective,

My reactions scores tell me that's not true at all.

And how do you know what "the majority" thinks?

Oops, sorry, That's just silly 'ol me asking for, you know, evidence to back up your assertion. But don't lets facts and figures cloud your feelings. Go on...

 

[Disney Experience]

Since mask wearing etc. keeps being brought up (Both in "beating a dead horse", or the opposite that no one is looking at it). I am sure many over the thousands of pages here have pointed to various articles on the subject.
For those who have not had the time to read all the pages, here is a very recent, nice narrative review on face masks published by The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

You might say it is a Cliff's note on the subject.

An evidence review of face masks against COVID-19

The science around the use of masks by the public to impede COVID-19 transmission is advancing rapidly. In this narrative review, we develop an analytical framework to examine mask usage, synthesizing the relevant literature to inform multiple areas: population impact, transmission...

www.pnas.org

Myself I do not care if it is as effective or less effective than the general scientific consensus. I been wearing one when not alone or when I am not with fully vaccinated people indoors. Outdoors I wear it when people are in proximity. I do not like wearing masks, but honestly the inconvenience of mask wearing is only temporary.

I will wait till the numbers of cases declines and mask wearing is optional before not wearing a mask in the appropriate circumstances. (Even if the mask are or are not effective)[The evidence in my opinion is that masks are effective for the unvaccinated, and we do not have the research done to know how much mitigation it is for the vaccinated [So I generally will err on the side of mitigation].

Now if you want a meta study that factors in mask wearing through last summer. A January 2021 lancet study can be found here (Has pretty graphs too).[But correlation is not necessarily causation]. The percent of the population that wear masks is lower than I thought (But that was the summer, not now)

Mask-wearing and control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA: a cross-sectional study

The widespread reported use of face masks combined with physical distancing increases the odds of SARS-CoV-2 transmission control. Self-reported mask-wearing increased separately from government mask mandates, suggesting that supplemental public health interventions are needed to maximise...

www.thelancet.com

 

[Parker in NYC]

Still looking at 2022 before returning to the office.

 

[BrianLo]

Do you consider ICU patients with depleted immune systems "isolated"? The doctors & nurses who care for these folks have for decades been allowed to live normal lives outside of work.

Their dedication to proven hygiene methods inside the medical facility is what keeps those patients free of infection. This is what we should have tried to do for the highest-risk population.

And an ICU bed costs about 5k a night, on the low side. A quarantine hotel, which to be fair can technically also provide the same level of support as you are suggesting (amenities of life and reasonable isolation), is about 500USD a night.

You want 40% of the population to receive that standard of isolation and support, for 18 months. All in the name of the betterment of the economy? Who exactly is going to pay for that.

What you are positing again is completely impossible. It sounds like a lovely idea, but you are completely ignoring the sheer impracticality of it. Otherwise a country would have done so successfully...

You know what was successful? Reducing the overall case burden. Following reopening guidelines. Targeted restrictions. You know... actually listening and responding to the numbers. It really isn't that hard of a concept.


The US tried it your way and it didn't work. That's the most aggravating part. They listened to the general sentiment you are asking for, for the most part. And you still were unhappy.

 

[Disney Experience]

Speaking of masks that are n95 and you can see your smile (*Sigh* not available till spring): (Looks worse but provides more protection than a clear face shield)(And using no mask still looks better, but that is not a choice in most conditions). Question then is breathability, etc. (And how fast they can meet future demand)

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/02/02/ford-ramps-up-finishstrong-initiative.html

Ford has received patent-pending approval for an innovative new clear respirator it expects to certify to N95 standards of virus elimination.

The transparent, low-cost, reusable respirators enable a full range of human expression, allowing people to better communicate with each other and aiding those with hearing impairments to help read lips that are today blocked by conventional cloth and filtered masks. This is also a safe solution where visible human expression is desired, such as teaching, air travel and sales.

“One of the things that’s missing during the pandemic is the power of a smile,” said Jim Baumbick, Ford vice president, enterprise product line management and leader of Ford’s Project Apollo personal protective equipment manufacturing effort. “This clear respirator promises to improve interactions between neighbors, at the store and for those who have hearing impairments.”

Testing on the respirators to prove their effectiveness continues this winter, with expected availability sometime this spring

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/permalink.html?VideoId=6228305792001

WO2008109438A2 - Transparent antimicrobial face mask - Google Patents

A mask for being worn over the nose and mouth of a wearer, and a panel having sufficient transparency to permit visual observation of the mouth of the wearer. The panel is formed from first and second overlying transparent, pleated films perforated with elongate slits sized to permit two-way...

patents.google.com