Notes from Neverland
Well-Known Member
Video has been removed. Probably a good call since it depicted the mess they allowed to happen last night.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Video has been removed. Probably a good call since it depicted the mess they allowed to happen last night.
The testing is unfortunately only ~90% accurate, and as we unleash 2000 labs this week, there is no national standard for the sensitivity of these tests. All of this means that some of these people who are testing negative are not actually negative, and even the ones that are, probably have some other infectious respiratory illnesss.
Look - I dont want the whole darn economy shut down either. This will hurt way more people than the virus itself. BUT, I'm not sure we have any other alternatives at this point. Society, and the world, has said "no we will not put economic stability over even a 1-3% fatality rate." It is surprising, but it is the path we have chosen.
As far as I can tell, they’re not. DH (FOS Cast member) got a call today telling him to stay home until April. Disney initially told to him to report to work as usual. It sounded like a mandate is shutting down every operation at Disney World. I don’t see why outside contractors would be exempt from that mandate.
Maintenance is still going to be showing up, some attractions CMs will be showing up to cycle rides every few days. The issue is proximity to a lot of people.
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
We manufacture MILITARY ENGINES
so guess it depends how many they plan on using?Right, there will have to be a skeleton crew of essential personnel but there’s not going to be round the clock maintenance teams like they initially expected.
Shouldigo12
Well-Known Member
It won't be a 1-3% mortality rate if hospitals are overwhelmed. That's what everyone against flattening the curve isn't getting. If hospitals get overwhelmed and aren't able to treat everyone in critical condition, that number will go up. Doctors will have to actively decide who lives and dies. And if we factor in people who need medical help/ventilators for reasons other than Corona, the deaths this may cause will go even higher.
We are not doing this because the virus has a 1-3% mortality rate. We are doing this to keep it at that rate.
Florida DOH now has a live interactive map -
Aerials from bioreconstruct today on twitter shows there is some level of construction going on still:
How long that lasts might be another question, but as of now, it seems like these projects are still ongoing.
HongKongFooy
Well-Known Member
As in they, too, should be layed off for their safety and well-being ??? Am I interpreting that right? If not please help me out with what you meant.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
For anyone looking for some potential goods news to hope for here’s a clip from an article talking about some potential treatments for the virus that could be available as early as next month. A true vaccine may still be a year away, but if some drugs which already went through some or all stages of the approval process can be effective at lessening the symptoms and/or preventing the spread that may be the stop gap that gets us to a real vaccine. Here’s the relevant section from a longer article:
On the bright side, both Haseltine and Klausner said there’s reason to believe therapeutic treatments may be available to the American public within just a few months.
When SARS and MERS came along, Haseltine explained, “there was a huge effort to create drugs,” many of which were promising leads. But then those two outbreaks, which both had significantly higher fatality rates than the novel coronavirus, petered out. Amid the new pandemic, physicians have picked back up on those prospects and begun to test them more aggressively.
Haseltine said the likelihood is that at least one treatment option will be available through the public-health system within weeks or months, and might even prevent the virus.
Klausner named two specific antiviral agents that look promising, including remdesivir and actemra, the latter of which he called “essentially a synthetic antibody” that is “currently being used and recommended for use in China” to treat the new coronavirus. It has been jointly manufactured by Roche and Chugai Pharmaceutical for use as an anti-inflammatory drug for rheumatoid arthritis.
Meanwhile, remdesivir, which was created by Gilead Sciences, has been reportedas the most promising possible treatment for the virus because it is a “broad spectrum” drug that has shown effectiveness against various viral targets in lab testing.
Officials expect outcome data on remdesivir as early as April, and there have been promising studies in cell culture and animal models, according to Klausner. “People are using the drug now in the United States under compassionate use,” he said, referring to an agreement between the manufacturer and the Food and Drug Administration that makes it available for some high-risk infected individuals. “It’s being used internationally as well.”
“Once the data are available and presented to the FDA, I would expect that FDA approval would be within a few days to a couple of weeks,” followed by a public rollout, said Klausner, who explained that there are multiple ways to use antiviral drugs, including prevention and treatment.
On the bright side, both Haseltine and Klausner said there’s reason to believe therapeutic treatments may be available to the American public within just a few months.
When SARS and MERS came along, Haseltine explained, “there was a huge effort to create drugs,” many of which were promising leads. But then those two outbreaks, which both had significantly higher fatality rates than the novel coronavirus, petered out. Amid the new pandemic, physicians have picked back up on those prospects and begun to test them more aggressively.
Haseltine said the likelihood is that at least one treatment option will be available through the public-health system within weeks or months, and might even prevent the virus.
Klausner named two specific antiviral agents that look promising, including remdesivir and actemra, the latter of which he called “essentially a synthetic antibody” that is “currently being used and recommended for use in China” to treat the new coronavirus. It has been jointly manufactured by Roche and Chugai Pharmaceutical for use as an anti-inflammatory drug for rheumatoid arthritis.
Meanwhile, remdesivir, which was created by Gilead Sciences, has been reportedas the most promising possible treatment for the virus because it is a “broad spectrum” drug that has shown effectiveness against various viral targets in lab testing.
Officials expect outcome data on remdesivir as early as April, and there have been promising studies in cell culture and animal models, according to Klausner. “People are using the drug now in the United States under compassionate use,” he said, referring to an agreement between the manufacturer and the Food and Drug Administration that makes it available for some high-risk infected individuals. “It’s being used internationally as well.”
“Once the data are available and presented to the FDA, I would expect that FDA approval would be within a few days to a couple of weeks,” followed by a public rollout, said Klausner, who explained that there are multiple ways to use antiviral drugs, including prevention and treatment.
DarkMetroid567
Well-Known Member
Some people do still have jobs to do, but the BIG BIG distinction is that just construction/third shift on property has less risk for infection than the utter show that was the parks yesterday.
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lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
AdventHealth (Florida Hospital) is setting up tents at facilities in Central Florida.
www.wesh.com
Central Florida hospitals prepare for influx of patients as coronavirus spreads
AdventHealth is setting up tents in an effort to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
www.wesh.com
Airlines are asking for a lot of money:
www.cnbc.com
US airlines seek more than $50 billion in government assistance as coronavirus roils business
U.S. airlines are seeking government assistance of more than $50 billion, including a mix of direct aid and loan guarantees.
I agree. The doctors will only be criticized for underselling the severity of the situation. And with the dearth of information (we have some data but little information), nobody is willing to give a well reasoned forecast. That's why you see these models with 100% infection rates - which feeds the hysteria.
I haven't seen any rational information that fully supports the draconian decisions that are being forced on everyone. This has moved to an emotional response and the public shaming of anyone who doesn't fall in line is fully in force.
I still go back to ground zero - Wuhan. The coronavirus was uncontained for more than a month in Wuhan. Yes there were curfews and armed guards that would not let anyone leave the city but that wasn't until after the death rate became high. Since everyone is quoting an exponential infection rate, Wuhan should be a wasteland. Wuhan has a population of 11 million yet all of China only has ~80,000 reported cases. If all of the cases were in Wuhan that translates into 0.7% infection rate. That means to me that either the infection rate is much lower than what is being discussed OR (quite possibly AND) the severity % is much lower. Implicitly people are thinking that there is both a high infection rate and high severity rate. Of course I'm making a lot of assumptions but, IMO, the numbers in Wuhan just don't match the doomsday scenarios being discussed.
Canada closing borders to noncitizens because of coronavirus, US citizens exempt from ban 'for the moment'
Canada is closing its borders to noncitizens because of the coronavirus pandemic, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Monday.
"Canada closing borders to non-citizens because of coronavirus, U.S. citizens exempt from ban ‘for the moment’"
Incomudro
Well-Known Member
I believe we're all aware of this.
Incomudro
Well-Known Member
Canada closing borders to noncitizens because of coronavirus, US citizens exempt from ban 'for the moment'
Canada is closing its borders to noncitizens because of the coronavirus pandemic, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Monday.
"Canada closing borders to non-citizens because of coronavirus, U.S. citizens exempt from ban ‘for the moment’"
I find it humorous to see how borders now matter to some of those who said they didn't.
TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
Airlines are asking for a lot of money:
US airlines seek more than $50 billion in government assistance as coronavirus roils business
U.S. airlines are seeking government assistance of more than $50 billion, including a mix of direct aid and loan guarantees.
United Airlines posted $1 billion in profits last year.
Delta posted $4 billion in profits last year.
American Airlines posted $1.7 billion in profits. Southwest was at $2.5 billion in profits.
Knock it off. That money needs to go to workers, directly.
The best example we have of an overwhelmed hospital system is Northern Italy. Their current mortality rate is close to 8% - so you are correct. They aren't testing the full population though, so the denominator is likely much higher, and the mortality rate is probably lower. These are just assumptions, of course.
Even in worst case scenarios by the CDC/WHO they aren't using a higher 3-4% rate in their modeling, to my knowledge. This is probably because they know the real denominator is MUCH higher, but untested. The doomsday situations are with a 40-70% infection rate, but with ~1% mortality rates. Even without enough hospital beds, there are only so many people will require hospitalization or ventilation.
I do agree with some of your other logic, though, on medical triage and doctors making difficult decisions. I think some of this will be lessoned by all of the work hospitals are doing right now pre-surge. Plans and facilities are being put in place in ways that Italy could never do.
I'm extremely concerned about how we handle this surge - I know how serious this situation is by living in the same household as people who are doctors on the frontlines - but I'm also curious to see how we all come together to handle this situation.
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