Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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tallica

Well-Known Member
21stamps said:
On a Disney note, is there an ETA for an announcement to be made, or has anyone received an email regarding April? My family has not received anything as of yet. Check in is 4/19.
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Would popbally c
DarkMetroid567 said:
We know just as well as you do, but I’d 90% count on cancelling your trip.

I would be utterly shocked if it happened, and it wouldn’t be a good idea, regardless.
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plus you can use the money you save to pay for child care.
 
smooch

smooch

Well-Known Member
zakattack99 said:
Leads to people thinking that my wife and I are crazy for sheltering at home the last few days and the foreseeable future. Shes 4 months pregnant and type 1 diabetic. While most of our friends and family are still planning St. Pat's day festivities.
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I'm also a Type 1 Diabetic and while I have built up a decent stockpile of insulin so I am not worried about running out of that, I am having issues getting supplies for my insulin pump filled and they assure us it isn't Coronavirus related because manufacturing is in the U.S. but I am worried about not getting my supplies in time and not being able to us my pump. I only have short acting insulin, no long acting insulin, I don't need it on the pump so I don't get it prescribed. If I do need to switch to shots then I'll have to either go out and get some long acting insulin or just do a lot of small shots of short acting insulin, but then that will use an excessive amount of needles and I could then run out of those since I don't have many, again because I only use my pump. I have backups incase there was ever an issue but now with supply chains getting affected I'm worried about availability of supplies.
 
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LittleBuford

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
IF the rate is 1%, it only translates to 1.6 million hospitalizations. Spread out over a few months and that doesn't overwhelm anything. In this case these actions make absolutely no sense at all.
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The point is that infections won’t be spread out over a few months if we don’t take action now. Experts are saying that the alternative is an exponential and overwhelming spike in the next few weeks, which may still happen unfortunately.
 
21stamps

21stamps

Well-Known Member
tallica said:
Would popbally c

plus you can use the money you save to pay for child care.
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It’s not my trip. My parents are taking their grandkids, my kid included. So far they have not received anything from Disney besides a “you can cancel up to 24hours without penalty”. Was wondering if any other April Disney people have received another email.
 
LittleBuford

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
21stamps said:
On a Disney note, is there an ETA for an announcement to be made, or has anyone received an email regarding April? My family has not received anything as of yet. Check in is 4/19.
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The CDC has urged a stop to gatherings of 50 or more people for the next two months. Disney is not going to act contrary to this advice. If nothing else, doing so would wreck their brand—and deservedly so.
 
flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
We do need this data. Other countries do not have a handle on total infections. South Korea comes the closest to a population sample and their rate of serious illness is reported (by worldometers.info) at under 1%.
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You're just hopping between points to avoid being cornered on one.

You kept harping on the idea that there is no data... There is data. Then it was 'well its not shared with us' - and then it was 'but that data is for other countries' - Now you're back to 'well different countries are different' and talking about infection rates... when the conversation had already moved to not transmission, but how many go from positive -> hospitalization.

There is data out there... and it is relevant to our situation.

But please.. keep talking in circles to make yourself feel better that 'no one has any cites'

DisneyCane said:
That's why it is imperative for the data to be shared with the public and for the formulas used for projections (both need and capacity) also need to be shared. A government shouldn't take unprecedented actions without being fully transparent as to the logic.
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I'm sure they'll be happy to let you check their math before their next decision...
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
LittleBuford said:
The point is that infections won’t be spread out over a few months if we don’t take action now. Experts are saying that the alternative is an exponential and overwhelming spike in the next few weeks, which may still happen unfortunately.
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They don't justify with data. Infections do not happen simultaneously.

I also didn't say don't take any action. I said don't shut down the country and economy. There are sane actions that can be taken to reduce spread to the vulnerable populations. They are the people most at risk to require hospitalization.

As an extreme illustrative example, if you quarantined everybody 65 and over and people with serious underlying health conditions and then let the rest of the country get infected, a very low number would need hospitalization.

Just as an aside for some data we do have, 85% of the people tested in Florida so far are negative.
 
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ifan

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
We do need this data. Other countries do not have a handle on total infections. South Korea comes the closest to a population sample and their rate of serious illness is reported (by worldometers.info) at under 1%.

This is far different from the 18%-20% reported in other countries that are only testing cases that have symptoms severe enough to prompt testing.

IF the rate is 18%, then if you assume 50% of the US is infected it would translate to 29 million hospitalizations which could justify the drastic actions.

IF the rate is 1%, it only translates to 1.6 million hospitalizations. Spread out over a few months and that doesn't overwhelm anything. In this case these actions make absolutely no sense at all.

In either case people over 65 or people with the specified health issues should take precautions like avoiding crowds. However, the world doesn't need to be shut down for everyone else if the lower number based on South Korea is accurate.

That's why it is imperative for the data to be shared with the public and for the formulas used for projections (both need and capacity) also need to be shared. A government shouldn't take unprecedented actions without being fully transparent as to the logic.
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South Korea is promising but has a different population and different precautions taking place. Everyone is wearing a mask, temperatures are being taken, etc.

Even 1% over a few months would dramatically overwhelm the US healthcare system as it stands today. It isn't for a shortage of doctors, but for a limited number of beds and ventilators. There aren't even 1 million NORMAL hospital beds in the whole country, let alone ICU beds. On a GOOD day, our ICU's are nearly full across the country. What happens to those patients? The government does have an emergency supply of stocked ventilators, which will be helpful to some extent. I believe the number is around ~12k additional ones.

That's the whole reason why we keep hearing about flattening the curve, obviously. My family members who work as physicians in the hospital, plus all of my physician friends are becoming more anxious and concerned by the hour/day. Some physician friends have told me that other physicians in their hospital are in full on panic mode. They don't feel like heroes, they feel afraid.

I've found a good source of real-time, on the ground information to be in certain subreddits. Check out the /medicine subreddit and look at their daily COVID-19 thread. Lots of interesting stories from physicians who are currently treating patients.

One of the odd parts of this virus is that people seem to recover - and then later die from myocarditis. One minute you look like you're doing a lot better, you're about to be discharged, and the next minute your life is in jeopardy. These anecdotes are fascinating and scary.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
flynnibus said:
You're just hopping between points to avoid being cornered on one.

You kept harping on the idea that there is no data... There is data. Then it was 'well its not shared with us' - and then it was 'but that data is for other countries' - Now you're back to 'well different countries are different' and talking about infection rates... when the conversation had already moved to not transmission, but how many go from positive -> hospitalization.

There is data out there... and it is relevant to our situation.

But please.. keep talking in circles to make yourself feel better that 'no one has any cites'



I'm sure they'll be happy to let you check their math before their next decision...
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If you want to be a "sheep" and accept every premise of "the powers that be" and "experts" without questioning their decisions or motivations then go right ahead.

I feel strongly that the handful of people making decisions that effect hundreds of millions of people should be transparent and held to account.
 
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