Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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correcaminos

Well-Known Member
There is going to be an issue if J&J comes in at 80% effective. There will be a not insignificant number of people who will want the "better" vaccines. Sure, 80% is more than enough to get to herd immunity if enough people get it but when people get vaccines their motivation is to protect themselves, not create herd immunity.

I bet if you asked people who get the flu shot why they got it and didn't give them multiple choice, the vast, vast majority will answer with something that translates to "I don't want to get the flu." I doubt that more than 5% of people who aren't in the healthcare industry give any thought to trying to create herd immunity to the strains of the flu that are in the shot and that is probably a very high estimate.

To get people to just get whatever vaccine is available, I think will require incentives. Not even financial, although those will help. People who get shots will have to be allowed to do things that violate COVID protocols as a reward for getting the shot.

Speaking for myself, really the only reason I don't want to get COVID is that I don't want to lose my sense of taste or smell for a potentially extended period of time. My personal motivation to get a vaccine is to minimize the chance of getting that symptom. Therefore, I want to get the most effective vaccine possible. If I have a choice to get an 80% effective vaccine today or wait a couple of months to get a 95% effective vaccine, I'd rather wait.
My house would be okay with at or above 80% i want more at risk to get the mRNA but my 40 something spouse and teen kid would be good. At or above 80% is nothing to sneeze at.

But my motivation for vaccination is not as personal as yours. I want to protect all and the most vulnerable and at or above 80% is still great for many of us. Especially since severity is reduced.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
My house would be okay with at or above 80% i want more at risk to get the mRNA but my 40 something spouse and teen kid would be good. At or above 80% is nothing to sneeze at.

But my motivation for vaccination is not as personal as yours. I want to protect all and the most vulnerable and at or above 80% is still great for many of us. Especially since severity is reduced.
I won't refuse to be vaccinated if it was just to create herd immunity but if I can get more protection for myself by waiting longer, I'd choose that option. If it is just a small difference like a 90% vs. 95% I wouldn't care and would rather have the one dose shot, but 80% vs. 95% is a pretty big spread in personal protection.
 

MrHappy

Well-Known Member
My house would be okay with at or above 80% i want more at risk to get the mRNA but my 40 something spouse and teen kid would be good. At or above 80% is nothing to sneeze at.

But my motivation for vaccination is not as personal as yours. I want to protect all and the most vulnerable and at or above 80% is still great for many of us. Especially since severity is reduced.
Sign me up for 80!
 

MrHappy

Well-Known Member
I won't refuse to be vaccinated if it was just to create herd immunity but if I can get more protection for myself by waiting longer, I'd choose that option. If it is just a small difference like a 90% vs. 95% I wouldn't care and would rather have the one dose shot, but 80% vs. 95% is a pretty big spread in personal protection.
I guess we’ll need a good old fashion education campaign if people think like this for the public if this is the prevailing thought of Americans. Think about it. If you are wearing your mask and walk into some droplets, you might inhale a rather small viral load. With vaccination at 80%, you are highly unlikely to get sick from COVID. But if you were, the symptoms would be mild. Not enough to send you to a hospital certainly, and I’d imagine that your viral load would not be potent enough to do serious damage to others...especially since you’re wearing your mask.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Can somebody explain why Biden would propose $20 billion for vaccinations and $50 billion to expand testing capacity? Shouldn't financial priority be given to vaccines so that expanded testing isn't necessary?

I would think that vaccinating 4 million people a day would be far more useful than testing more than 4 million people a day (I don't know what the actual increase in testing would be spending $50 billion so I doubled).
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
I guess we’ll need a good old fashion education campaign if people think like this for the public if this is the prevailing thought of Americans. Think about it. If you are wearing your mask and walk into some droplets, you might inhale a rather small viral load. With vaccination at 80%, you are highly unlikely to get sick from COVID. But if you were, the symptoms would be mild. Not enough to send you to a hospital certainly, and I’d imagine that your viral load would not be potent enough to do serious damage to others...especially since you’re wearing your mask.
I completely understand the concept but in my age group and with my health status there is a miniscule chance that I would end up in the hospital if I got COVID without having had any vaccine. Like I said above, my personal motivation to not get COVID is not losing my sense of taste and smell for an extended period of time.

I think another very important data point is what the effectiveness is referring to. With Pfizer and Moderna it is the effectiveness in keeping people from getting sick. If J&J is measuring getting infected vs. getting sick then that changes my thinking since it is somewhat likely that Pfizer and Moderna are less than 95% effective in preventing infections but are that effective in preventing symptoms.

If my choice is to get an 80% effective vaccine in April or a 95% in October then I'd get the 80% but if it's April vs. June, I'd rather wait.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I won't refuse to be vaccinated if it was just to create herd immunity but if I can get more protection for myself by waiting longer, I'd choose that option. If it is just a small difference like a 90% vs. 95% I wouldn't care and would rather have the one dose shot, but 80% vs. 95% is a pretty big spread in personal protection.
I think there probably is a breaking point. I don’t know if it’s 70 or 80 or 90 where people say they would rather wait. The U.K. approved the Oxford vaccine which was 70% in the trial on average. That should give us some idea how the mass public is thinking. If the vaccine effectiveness is too low it may not help us reach herd immunity, but 70%+ is probably going to get it done. If it’s 50-70% that may not be as helpful unless we get 90%+ vaccinated. The less effective the vaccine the more people we need and we know there’s a certain number of people who won’t get it no matter what.

From a public health prospective getting people a vaccine that’s 80% effective is what‘s best rather than have them wait for a more effective one. This isn’t about “fair” or personal gain, it’s about reaching herd immunity as fast as possible. I know people will do what they want anyway even if it’s not in the best interest of the greater good (that was reinforced heavily this past year). For anyone who wants to wait for the “better” vaccine I hope they aren’t the same people screaming about the economy all year and the poor workers. Delaying vaccinations prolongs the recession and keeps more people unemployed.

I am not opposed to tying and future stimulus money to vaccinations. You want the check, you get the shot. That may be the most efficient way to motivate people to get the shot. Carrot vs stick. You could also require proof of vaccination to be allowed to do certain things but I feel that may backfire some and you could get people who resist just becuae the government is making them do something. See mask mandates.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Can somebody explain why Biden would propose $20 billion for vaccinations and $50 billion to expand testing capacity? Shouldn't financial priority be given to vaccines so that expanded testing isn't necessary?

I would think that vaccinating 4 million people a day would be far more useful than testing more than 4 million people a day (I don't know what the actual increase in testing would be spending $50 billion so I doubled).
The testing money is mostly for headcount. He wants to add additional people for contact tracing and testing. In theory once community spread drops to a manageable level if you have robust contact tracing it’s possible to prevent larger outbreaks going forward. Places like New Zealand and Australia have been able to implement this.

On the vaccination front I am not opposed to more money thrown at that. Either give the states more money to do it, or organize Federal resources. If they turn over the shots to pharmacies (starting to happen now) then warp speed pays CVS directly so that’s not paid for out of this bucket. The extra money for vaccines is mostly paying for logistics and support staff. More resources for reservation systems, setting up large scale vaccination sites at stadiums, etc.
 

MrHappy

Well-Known Member
I completely understand the concept but in my age group and with my health status there is a miniscule chance that I would end up in the hospital if I got COVID without having had any vaccine. Like I said above, my personal motivation to not get COVID is not losing my sense of taste and smell for an extended period of time.

I think another very important data point is what the effectiveness is referring to. With Pfizer and Moderna it is the effectiveness in keeping people from getting sick. If J&J is measuring getting infected vs. getting sick then that changes my thinking since it is somewhat likely that Pfizer and Moderna are less than 95% effective in preventing infections but are that effective in preventing symptoms.

If my choice is to get an 80% effective vaccine in April or a 95% in October then I'd get the 80% but if it's April vs. June, I'd rather wait.
Ok, I hear yah. But...i think if you do inhale some droplets and you are vaccinated even by the 80% one, then the viral load that you can spread to others would be less. Thereby, helping others. And you’d probably just have cold like symptoms if anything any way.
Which reminds me...
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
I won't refuse to be vaccinated if it was just to create herd immunity but if I can get more protection for myself by waiting longer, I'd choose that option. If it is just a small difference like a 90% vs. 95% I wouldn't care and would rather have the one dose shot, but 80% vs. 95% is a pretty big spread in personal protection.
We all have our own opinions and yours is fine. Being one of the last on the list if I were not in a trial (supposedly a 20 something was really above me probably due to being supposedly responsible at early 40s vs 20s lol) I figure by the time it comes to my house, we cannot be choosers at all. What is left is what is left.

I am early 40s with a teen and the closest to any health issues is my husband is a former asthmatic. Even then never severe though sometimes coughs linger for him. They are saying minimum of 80% - like pfizer, it could go up too. 85 to 95 is not enough for me to say no. Neither is 80 since so far and they talked of a two dose regimine to boost levels in the article.

I personally wouldn't refuse anything and advise anyone not to refuse any level they are offered. But again we are not super high risk. I really don't have issues offering the 90%+ to those high risk and 80% to those with very minor or no health risks.
 

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
Even then never severe though sometimes coughs linger for him.
That’s how I am with asthma, so I thought I was more or less in the clear.

But I posted a story on this site, it took place either right before WDW closed or right after it reopened. A younger guy from CA flew to WDW, started feeling unwell towards the end of the trip, flew home, and was hospitalized with COVID. His only issue was childhood asthma he had outgrown. The respiratory aspect was very hard on him and he died.

Since then, I’ve been more careful, and when the time comes to give the vaccine to people at high risk under 65, my hand is up.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
The testing money is mostly for headcount. He wants to add additional people for contact tracing and testing. In theory once community spread drops to a manageable level if you have robust contact tracing it’s possible to prevent larger outbreaks going forward. Places like New Zealand and Australia have been able to implement this.

On the vaccination front I am not opposed to more money thrown at that. Either give the states more money to do it, or organize Federal resources. If they turn over the shots to pharmacies (starting to happen now) then warp speed pays CVS directly so that’s not paid for out of this bucket. The extra money for vaccines is mostly paying for logistics and support staff. More resources for reservation systems, setting up large scale vaccination sites at stadiums, etc.
I'd prefer spending $70 billion to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible and spend zero on additional testing and contact tracing. If enough people are vaccinated then the level of cases should be low enough that the existing testing and contact tracing capability should be able to handle it.
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
I personally wouldn't refuse anything and advise anyone not to refuse any level they are offered. But again we are not super high risk. I really don't have issues offering the 90%+ to those high risk and 80% to those with very minor or no health risks.

I agree with that, particularly when the 70-80% effective ones have the side benefit of: you get the disease but are only laid up a few days instead of being hospitalized or dying.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I'd prefer spending $70 billion to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible and spend zero on additional testing and contact tracing. If enough people are vaccinated then the level of cases should be low enough that the existing testing and contact tracing capability should be able to handle it.
There is no real contact tracing right now. I have a good friend who tested positive a week ago (5 family members total) and none of them were even contacted by the department of health. They did tell the people they had contact with, but there was no attempt to do real contact tracing. I saw recently that France was dramatically increasing testing in schools in an attempt to keep physical schools open. There’s still a need for testing and tracing. Covid isn’t going to vanish. It’s going to be a gradual reduction. If we wait for the vaccine alone it may mean we wipe 2021 out too. It’s possible to speed up the process if we combine vaccination with better testing and tracing to reduce cases. I know you don’t think cases matter, but that’s not what the public policy says.

Edit: why not spend 70B on vaccines and 50B on testing and tracing. We are in the trillions now what’s a few billion more.
 

seabreezept813

Well-Known Member
Looks like the JnJ vaccine which hasn’t even been approved yet is facing manufacturing delays that have set it back 2 months and doses aren’t expected now until end of April. They still expect to have full results for the phase 3 trial in a few weeks, but even if they get EUA in Feb it won’t help us speed the vaccine process until Q2 :(


There is going to be an issue if J&J comes in at 80% effective. There will be a not insignificant number of people who will want the "better" vaccines. Sure, 80% is more than enough to get to herd immunity if enough people get it but when people get vaccines their motivation is to protect themselves, not create herd immunity.

I bet if you asked people who get the flu shot why they got it and didn't give them multiple choice, the vast, vast majority will answer with something that translates to "I don't want to get the flu." I doubt that more than 5% of people who aren't in the healthcare industry give any thought to trying to create herd immunity to the strains of the flu that are in the shot and that is probably a very high estimate.

To get people to just get whatever vaccine is available, I think will require incentives. Not even financial, although those will help. People who get shots will have to be allowed to do things that violate COVID protocols as a reward for getting the shot.

Speaking for myself, really the only reason I don't want to get COVID is that I don't want to lose my sense of taste or smell for a potentially extended period of time. My personal motivation to get a vaccine is to minimize the chance of getting that symptom. Therefore, I want to get the most effective vaccine possible. If I have a choice to get an 80% effective vaccine today or wait a couple of months to get a 95% effective vaccine, I'd rather wait.
I wonder if they will push this vaccine for children who are already less likely to get covid seriously and because of not having the mrna factor. Infants and kids of all ages are encouraged to get the flu shot, so I could see this being likely.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
That’s how I am with asthma, so I thought I was more or less in the clear.

But I posted a story on this site, it took place either right before WDW closed or right after it reopened. A younger guy from CA flew to WDW, started feeling unwell towards the end of the trip, flew home, and was hospitalized with COVID. His only issue was childhood asthma he had outgrown. The respiratory aspect was very hard on him and he died.

Since then, I’ve been more careful, and when the time comes to give the vaccine to people at high risk under 65, my hand is up.
Not sure if you think we are not taking it seriously or not, but we are. Also not sure if it is the same as my spouse, since to be real his linger cough is throat tickle and not lung issues. The guy who died sadly had a history of severe asthma as a child in addition to chronic bronchitis and cancer. Those along with delayed treatment and other things didn't help. I feel so bad for that family as they really went through a lot with him.

We aren't dumb here, but mild asthma about 35 years ago is not enough to jump us. Especially since they think it was allergy induced as it disappeared when they moved (army). We are no dummies though.

I wonder if they will push this vaccine for children who are already less likely to get covid seriously and because of not having the mrna factor. Infants and kids of all ages are encouraged to get the flu shot, so I could see this being likely.
No trial has done all children yet though so likely no. At least not for many months. Even then it's really just pubescent and above. For now it's only 16/17 minimum age.
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Can somebody explain why Biden would propose $20 billion for vaccinations and $50 billion to expand testing capacity? Shouldn't financial priority be given to vaccines so that expanded testing isn't necessary?

I would think that vaccinating 4 million people a day would be far more useful than testing more than 4 million people a day (I don't know what the actual increase in testing would be spending $50 billion so I doubled).

I’m gonna guess that there’s a reason for those figures...as they were probably developed by people with backgrounds/experience...

...as opposed to campaign managers who drive Ferraris with dust on the dashboard
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I wonder if they will push this vaccine for children who are already less likely to get covid seriously and because of not having the mrna factor. Infants and kids of all ages are encouraged to get the flu shot, so I could see this being likely.
I think that’s possible. Especially with the 1 shot vs 2. The governor of FL said he thinks that JnJ could be the way to go for the front line workers in the next phase since it will be so much quicker to distribute.
 
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