Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[sullyinMT]

This type of thing is what will be necessary to get a large percentage of people to get the vaccine. For a two shot vaccine, I hope that they don't pay until after the second shot.

I tried to post this in the more vaccine-centric thread. The way the full Dollar General presser reads, they do seem to indicate language to that effect. “Those that complete the vaccine,” or something similar, IIRC.

 

[DisneyCane]

I don’t know what the specifics will be exactly so maybe just a difference in what we consider seriously scaled back. For WDW as a specific example, I don’t see them removing the mask mandate, removing distancing in restaurants, removing distancing in queues or on transport or bringing back large indoor shows/crowds once 65+ are vaccinated. There already has been an easing of physical distancing on ride vehicles and/or adding of plexiglass. I could also see them add back outdoor large gatherings as well some time sooner than later (something like a distanced Fantasmic). On the capacity front I don’t see them going to no capacity limits and no park reservations right away either. It’s possible they continue to add capacity but that’s more tied to increasing ride capacity vs getting 65+ vaccinated. So overall for WDW I don’t see that as a serious scaling back. Just my opinion, they could do it differently.

Specific to WDW, I agree. Other than fireworks and outdoor shows, nothing at WDW is really "closed" at this point. In the broader context, I consider seriously scaled back allowing gyms, indoor dining and bars to be open in all jurisdictions, things like that.

 

[JoeCamel]

And if we allow all that circulating virus to mutate to a point that the existing vaccines are no longer effective? Reducing viral loads as quickly and aggressively as possible is our best tool against this possibility. We have an end in sight, lets not shoot ourselves in the foot yet again.

But I have 6 toes left and I really don't want to be Joe Six Toe, just a couple more we have a long way to go.

 

[sullyinMT]

I think the age thing might be a little short sighted, because as distribution rates ramp up we’ll see some pretty quick moving down the tiers and into the general public.

For better or worse, we probably will see a general public mutiny on restrictions once “anyone who wants one can get it” has been announced for two months or so. Giving time for two doses and immunity to fully kick in. It may not make sense “by the science,” but we’ll be 18 months or more in at that point, and the voices will get louder for a return to “normal.”

Even Gov Cuomo is getting restless.

 

[GoofGoof]

Specific to WDW, I agree. Other than fireworks and outdoor shows, nothing at WDW is really "closed" at this point. In the broader context, I consider seriously scaled back allowing gyms, indoor dining and bars to be open in all jurisdictions, things like that.

I think in most places gyms and indoor dining will reopen once this wave dies down. At some point this summer they were open just about everywhere. Even NJ had indoor dining going for a little while. NYC may be the exception as they never really got off the ground before the second wave. Bars are tough but probably tied somewhat to indoor dining. In PA this summer bars reopened but with capacity restrictions and limitations on standing room and bar seating. That was without a vaccine at all and just natural reduction in cases. I could see those things back by the early Spring assuming cases drop off. The natural change of season combined with ending of the second wave combined with vaccinations increasing over time should lead to much better stats which will lead to a reduction in mitigation needed. I just hope enough people get vaccinated quickly enough before a 3rd wave takes hold. It would be great to never have another real wave, I’ll take a slow and steady decline, just not too slow.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I think the age thing might be a little short sighted, because as distribution rates ramp up we’ll see some pretty quick moving down the tiers and into the general public.

For better or worse, we probably will see a general public mutiny on restrictions once “anyone who wants one can get it” has been announced for two months or so. Giving time for two doses and immunity to fully kick in. It may not make sense “by the science,” but we’ll be 18 months or more in at that point, and the voices will get louder for a return to “normal.”

Even Gov Cuomo is getting restless.

This is why we need adults in the room.

 

[_caleb]

So we still haven’t learned that rushing to drop restrictions and moving to next phases of reopening before we meet our targets? Huh.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I at dinner at 4:30PM yesterday. I guess I'm a senior before my time.

And without the discounts. What are you doing?

 

[Chi84]

I think the age thing might be a little short sighted, because as distribution rates ramp up we’ll see some pretty quick moving down the tiers and into the general public.

For better or worse, we probably will see a general public mutiny on restrictions once “anyone who wants one can get it” has been announced for two months or so. Giving time for two doses and immunity to fully kick in. It may not make sense “by the science,” but we’ll be 18 months or more in at that point, and the voices will get louder for a return to “normal.”

Even Gov Cuomo is getting restless.

That won't happen if the people making the decisions act to scale back restrictions in a reasonable time frame. People aren't going to continue with restrictions for 18 months (or even 6 months) after the vaccine is widely available unless someone is able to make a very good case for it, and even then I just don't see it happening.

In Illinois, the governor has refused to open indoor dining despite the fact that positivity rate has been steadily declining. Many restaurants have just decided to open indoor dining. Businesses that had employees ensuring mask compliance and social distancing no longer do so. Businesses won't continue restrictions anywhere near 18 months after the vaccine is widely available, nor will the public follow them. There won't be a general mutiny, just widespread non-compliance.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

That won't happen if the people making the decisions act to scale back restrictions in a reasonable time frame. People aren't going to continue with restrictions for 18 months (or even 6 months) after the vaccine is widely available unless someone is able to make a very good case for it, and even then I just don't see it happening.

In Illinois, the governor has refused to open indoor dining despite the fact that positivity rate has been steadily declining. Many restaurants have just decided to open indoor dining. Businesses that had employees ensuring mask compliance and social distancing no longer do so. Businesses won't continue restrictions anywhere near 18 months after the vaccine is widely available, nor will the public follow them. There won't be a general mutiny, just widespread non-compliance.

What is the positivity rate in Illinois?

 

[sullyinMT]

That won't happen if the people making the decisions act to scale back restrictions in a reasonable time frame. People aren't going to continue with restrictions for 18 months (or even 6 months) after the vaccine is widely available unless someone is able to make a very good case for it, and even then I just don't see it happening.

In Illinois, the governor has refused to open indoor dining despite the fact that positivity rate has been steadily declining. Many restaurants have just decided to open indoor dining. Businesses that had employees ensuring mask compliance and social distancing no longer do so. Businesses won't continue restrictions anywhere near 18 months after the vaccine is widely available, nor will the public follow them. There won't be a general mutiny, just widespread non-compliance.

I think you and I are saying the same thing. 18 months was in reference to last February, so sometime this summer would be 18 months from that point.

 

[Jrb1979]

That won't happen if the people making the decisions act to scale back restrictions in a reasonable time frame. People aren't going to continue with restrictions for 18 months (or even 6 months) after the vaccine is widely available unless someone is able to make a very good case for it, and even then I just don't see it happening.

In Illinois, the governor has refused to open indoor dining despite the fact that positivity rate has been steadily declining. Many restaurants have just decided to open indoor dining. Businesses that had employees ensuring mask compliance and social distancing no longer do so. Businesses won't continue restrictions anywhere near 18 months after the vaccine is widely available, nor will the public follow them. There won't be a general mutiny, just widespread non-compliance.

First I will say all those restaurants should be fined. As far as the restrictions go it won't last 18 months, I think if the majority of people are vaccinated by fall, then by Christmas restrictions will start dropping.

 

[Touchdown]

My gut on how this year will go:

Jan-May: Pain, vaccines will be far below demand, cases will still stay high, restrictions mostly in place

June-Sept: Vaccine becomes widely available, gradually restrictions start to fall as cases do as well. Mask mandate remains

Oct-Nov: Mask mandate is really the only thing that remains, and sometime during these two months it will be dropped as cases drop to insignificant levels nationwide

Early 2022: International travel returns

However, I’m an optimist so I’ve been wrong many times before.

 

[DisneyCane]

First I will say all those restaurants should be fined. As far as the restrictions go it won't last 18 months, I think if the majority of people are vaccinated by fall, then by Christmas restrictions will start dropping.

So only another year of restrictions? Not going to happen. It hasn't even been a year since they were started and there are many people who weren't against them starting to get tired of them.

My gut on how this year will go:

Jan-May: Pain, vaccines will be scared, cases will still stay high, restrictions mostly in place

June-Sept: Vaccine becomes widely available, gradually restrictions start to fall as cases do as well. Mask mandate remains

Oct-Nov: Mask mandate is really the only thing that remains, and sometime during these two months it will be dropped as cases drop to insignificant levels nationwide

Early 2022: International travel returns

However, I’m an optimist so I’ve been wrong many times before.

I hope the Johnson and Johnson vaccine leads to somewhat wide vaccine availability by May. Probably not to the point of walking into Walgreens or CVS whenever you feel like it but at least doing several million shots a day nationwide.

 

[Jrb1979]

My gut on how this year will go:

Jan-May: Pain, vaccines will be scared, cases will still stay high, restrictions mostly in place

June-Sept: Vaccine becomes widely available, gradually restrictions start to fall as cases do as well. Mask mandate remains

Oct-Nov: Mask mandate is really the only thing that remains, and sometime during these two months it will be dropped as cases drop to insignificant levels nationwide

Early 2022: International travel returns

However, I’m an optimist so I’ve been wrong many times before.

I like your optimism in regards to the vaccine roll out but so disagree on international travel returning that quickly. It's going to be closer to 2023 before major travel returns. By the end of the year things will be back to normal in regards to restrictions but the economy is a long ways away from returning especially tourism.

 

[Chi84]

What is the positivity rate in Illinois?

Yesterday, the seven-day positivity rate was 7.3%.

 

[Chi84]

First I will say all those restaurants should be fined. As far as the restrictions go it won't last 18 months, I think if the majority of people are vaccinated by fall, then by Christmas restrictions will start dropping.

There isn't enough personnel to investigate and handle fines on that scale. The state can't fine someone unless it goes through the necessary process - they can't just go by a picture on a phone or someone's report. (I'm talking about the Chicago area and surrounding suburbs; there are a lot of restaurants.)

 

[GoofGoof]

I hope the Johnson and Johnson vaccine leads to somewhat wide vaccine availability by May. Probably not to the point of walking into Walgreens or CVS whenever you feel like it but at least doing several million shots a day nationwide.

I hope we get to that point. There are around 90,000 pharmacies in the US. If every pharmacy gave 11 vaccines a day on average that would be 1M vaccines total daily. If each pharmacy gave 5 vaccines an hour for 8 hours a day that’s nearly 4M vaccinations a day and that’s without mass vaccination sites or other healthcare center options. Once the doses are open to anyone who wants one we have the ability to ramp up very quickly.

 

[Jrb1979]

Yesterday, the seven-day positivity rate was 7.3%.

The positivity rate in Ontario is around that and they have put us in a stay at home order.

 

[SamusAranX]

The positivity rate in Ontario is around that and they have put us in a stay at home order.

So now you have to order your maple syrup and poutine on Amazon? Or is it just not as good as the actual in-person stuff?