Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disney Experience]

(Using the classic herd immunity formula of: PercentImmuneForHerdImmunity=(1-1/R0)/Efficacy)

One interesting fact about the varying efficacy of vaccines and herd immunity is that a vaccine like Sinovac (in the 50% range) may never achieve herd immunity depending on how large the R0 is, so elimination of the virus in the population will never happen, while with a vaccine like Pfizer or Moderna (in the 95% range) herd immunity is almost assured no matter how high the R0 gets if you get enough people vaccinated.

Of course if part of the world has enough virus surviving because they only have Sinovac, then it may mutate someday and lower the efficacy in the places in the world that had a more effective vaccine and we get to start all over again.

 

[Disney Experience]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034201

Latest phase 1 &.2 JnJ report at New England Journal of Medicine January 13, 2021. Gives us a preview of the vaccine efficacy and side effects. Not Phase 3, but still useful.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Hope you feel better tomorrow!

My friend that got the 2nd Pfizer shot last week started feeling cruddy within 6-8 hrs of the 2nd shot. Pretty much back to normal by 30 hours.

I'm back to normal this morning.

 

[matt9112]

I agree- in some ways, the "retain institutional philosophy and knowledge" ship sailed a long time ago. But to get back to a place where Disney creates magic (instead of buying it or reproducing cheap knockoffs), they've got to start somewhere. In my opinion, step one is investing in/taking care of their people.

Thats not a good look for that stock price though....i mean that seems to be all they care about. Look im anti union (mostly) and still agree with you. Buisness owners and operators should have a moral compass. Being a good person isn't that hard it just dosen't make the most money.

 

[DCBaker]

'Dollar General workers who get the coronavirus vaccine will be rewarded with four hours of pay, the company announced Wednesday, making it one of the first major retailers to incentivize inoculations for its workforce."

“We do not have an on-site pharmacy and currently do not have systems in place for employees to receive a vaccine at their work site,” the company said. “We do not want our employees to have to choose between receiving a vaccine or coming to work.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/road-to-recovery/2021/01/13/dollar-general-covid-vaccine/

 

[Kevin_W]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034201

Latest phase 1 &.2 JnJ report at New England Journal of Medicine January 13, 2021. Gives us a preview of the vaccine efficacy and side effects. Not Phase 3, but still useful.

Thanks. For kicks, I looked at the Moderna phase 1 report to see if they could be compared. Pfizer is out there as well.

I'm far from a microbiologist, so I don't know if the reported immunogenicity numbers between the studies are apples-to-apples comparisons. But the J&J numbers seem to show an increase in response by 1-2 orders of magnitude while the Moderna/Pfizer showed 3-4 orders of magnitude. Hopefully, they are measuring different things and that's not significant to the protective ability of the vaccine.

 

[DisneyCane]

'Dollar General workers who get the coronavirus vaccine will be rewarded with four hours of pay, the company announced Wednesday, making it one of the first major retailers to incentivize inoculations for its workforce."

“We do not have an on-site pharmacy and currently do not have systems in place for employees to receive a vaccine at their work site,” the company said. “We do not want our employees to have to choose between receiving a vaccine or coming to work.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/road-to-recovery/2021/01/13/dollar-general-covid-vaccine/

This type of thing is what will be necessary to get a large percentage of people to get the vaccine. For a two shot vaccine, I hope that they don't pay until after the second shot.

 

[DisneyCane]

Looks like the JnJ vaccine which hasn’t even been approved yet is facing manufacturing delays that have set it back 2 months and doses aren’t expected now until end of April. They still expect to have full results for the phase 3 trial in a few weeks, but even if they get EUA in Feb it won’t help us speed the vaccine process until Q2

Johnson & Johnson One Shot Covid-19 Vaccine Delayed

Johnson & Johnson’s one-shot Covid-19 vaccine reportedly is as much as two months behind original production schedule and won’t catch up until the end of April.

www.thestreet.com

This article seems a bit more positive on JnJ. So they may start delivering doses before April but may not reach the full target of deliveries. Some is better than none

J&J COVID-19 vaccine on track for March rollout, still aims for 1 bln doses this year -exec

Johnson & Johnson is on track to roll out its single-shot coronavirus vaccine in March, and plans to have clear data on how effective it is by the end of this month or early February, the U.S. healthcare company's chief science officer said. Dr. Paul Stoffels in an interview on Tuesday also...

www.yahoo.com

While not terrible news, this does seem to push the "end of the tunnel" out a bit further as the J&J vaccine is definitely needed to get the under 65 population vaccinated in a reasonable time frame.

However, if early indications hold and Pfizer and Moderna are over 95% effective at preventing severe illness in people aged 65 and up, vaccinating that population should eliminate 80% of the COVID deaths and over half of the COVID hospitalizations. Once that goal is reached, "mitigation" should be seriously scaled back everywhere.

 

[GoofGoof]

While not terrible news, this does seem to push the "end of the tunnel" out a bit further as the J&J vaccine is definitely needed to get the under 65 population vaccinated in a reasonable time frame.

However, if early indications hold and Pfizer and Moderna are over 95% effective at preventing severe illness in people aged 65 and up, vaccinating that population should eliminate 80% of the COVID deaths and over half of the COVID hospitalizations. Once that goal is reached, "mitigation" should be seriously scaled back everywhere.

Don‘t hold your breath on that. I want a return to normal as fast as possible too, but it’s highly unlikely that restrictions go away once the 65+ population is vaccinated. I think we need to see a steep reduction in overall cases and hospitalization. Unfortunately its a double edged sword. As vaccinations naturally drive case numbers down the relaxing of restrictions will have the opposite effect with the rest of the population. It may be possible to gradually reduce some restrictions, but I wouldn’t hold out hope for a serious reduction immediately once seniors are done. There’s no short cut, we all need immunity one way or the other.

 

[DisneyCane]

Don‘t hold your breath on that. I want a return to normal as fast as possible too, but it’s highly unlikely that restrictions go away once the 65+ population is vaccinated. I think we need to see a steep reduction in overall cases and hospitalization. Unfortunately its a double edged sword. As vaccinations naturally drive case numbers down the relaxing of restrictions will have the opposite effect with the rest of the population. It may be possible to gradually reduce some restrictions, but I wouldn’t hold out hope for a serious reduction immediately once seniors are done. There’s no short cut, we all need immunity one way or the other.

If all 65+ are vaccinated which eliminates over 50% of the hospitalizations, cases in people 64 and under would have to more than double to end up with the same strain on the healthcare system we have currently. If all restrictions were removed, that doubling would likely happen but I said they should be seriously scaled back.

Once the 65+ demographic is vaccinated, no portion of any business should be prevented from operating anywhere. You can continue to require distancing, although I still believe that this should come with compensation when it drastically changes business models like with restaurants and bars.

Not an immediate return to normal with no restrictions. That should happen after everybody who wants to be vaccinated is able to be vaccinated (running under the assumption of 90%+ effective vaccines).

 

[MisterPenguin]

If all 65+ are vaccinated which eliminates over 50% of the hospitalizations, cases in people 64 and under would have to more than double to end up with the same strain on the healthcare system we have currently. If all restrictions were removed, that doubling would likely happen but I said they should be seriously scaled back.

Once the 65+ demographic is vaccinated, no portion of any business should be prevented from operating anywhere. You can continue to require distancing, although I still believe that this should come with compensation when it drastically changes business models like with restaurants and bars.

Not an immediate return to normal with no restrictions. That should happen after everybody who wants to be vaccinated is able to be vaccinated (running under the assumption of 90%+ effective vaccines).

1. Inoculate everyone over 65.

2. Allow restaurants to have 65+ only customers for breakfast and early bird specials.

3. Profit!

 

[GoofGoof]

If all 65+ are vaccinated which eliminates over 50% of the hospitalizations, cases in people 64 and under would have to more than double to end up with the same strain on the healthcare system we have currently. If all restrictions were removed, that doubling would likely happen but I said they should be seriously scaled back.

Once the 65+ demographic is vaccinated, no portion of any business should be prevented from operating anywhere. You can continue to require distancing, although I still believe that this should come with compensation when it drastically changes business models like with restaurants and bars.

Not an immediate return to normal with no restrictions. That should happen after everybody who wants to be vaccinated is able to be vaccinated (running under the assumption of 90%+ effective vaccines).

I don’t know what the specifics will be exactly so maybe just a difference in what we consider seriously scaled back. For WDW as a specific example, I don’t see them removing the mask mandate, removing distancing in restaurants, removing distancing in queues or on transport or bringing back large indoor shows/crowds once 65+ are vaccinated. There already has been an easing of physical distancing on ride vehicles and/or adding of plexiglass. I could also see them add back outdoor large gatherings as well some time sooner than later (something like a distanced Fantasmic). On the capacity front I don’t see them going to no capacity limits and no park reservations right away either. It’s possible they continue to add capacity but that’s more tied to increasing ride capacity vs getting 65+ vaccinated. So overall for WDW I don’t see that as a serious scaling back. Just my opinion, they could do it differently.

 

[JoeCamel]

1. Inoculate everyone over 65.

2. Allow restaurants to have 65+ only customers for breakfast and early bird specials.

3. Profit!

Everyone around here knows the seniors don't spend, a cafe can exist but does not prosper from those people. They sit around for hours tying up tables, getting free stuff and only ordering small portions. Real money is in dinner service.

 

[GoofGoof]

1. Inoculate everyone over 65.

2. Allow restaurants to have 65+ only customers for breakfast and early bird specials.

3. Profit!

There certainly will be a big increase in crowds starting around 4PM either way

 

[Kevin_W]

There certainly will be a big increase in crowds starting around 4PM either way

I at dinner at 4:30PM yesterday. I guess I'm a senior before my time.

 

[GoofGoof]

I at dinner at 4:30PM yesterday. I guess I'm a senior before my time.

I’m not gonna lie, I enjoy an early dinner myself these days. It makes your night so much longer Working from home now I don’t have the hour commute home so I have been eating dinner earlier every day. It’s one of the few benefits of this pandemic.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I at dinner at 4:30PM yesterday. I guess I'm a senior before my time.

You need time to digest before going to bed at 7:30.

 

[JoeCamel]

You need time to digest before going to bed at 7:30.

I admit I was asleep by 8 last night. Got to go wake the birds so they don't miss the worms

 

[Heppenheimer]

If all 65+ are vaccinated which eliminates over 50% of the hospitalizations, cases in people 64 and under would have to more than double to end up with the same strain on the healthcare system we have currently. If all restrictions were removed, that doubling would likely happen but I said they should be seriously scaled back.

Once the 65+ demographic is vaccinated, no portion of any business should be prevented from operating anywhere. You can continue to require distancing, although I still believe that this should come with compensation when it drastically changes business models like with restaurants and bars.

Not an immediate return to normal with no restrictions. That should happen after everybody who wants to be vaccinated is able to be vaccinated (running under the assumption of 90%+ effective vaccines).

And if we allow all that circulating virus greater opportunities to mutate to a point that the existing vaccines are no longer effective? Reducing viral loads as quickly and aggressively as possible is our best tool against this nightmare scenario. We have an end in sight, lets not shoot ourselves in the foot yet again.

 

[sullyinMT]

This type of thing is what will be necessary to get a large percentage of people to get the vaccine. For a two shot vaccine, I hope that they don't pay until after the second shot.

I tried to post this in the more vaccine-centric thread. The way the full Dollar General presser reads, they do seem to indicate language to that effect. “Those that complete the vaccine,” or something similar, IIRC.