The crowds there now are not at all the demographic makeup of a normal Disney crowd. The vast majority of those people are locals (most on APs) not out of state tourists who paid thousands to be there and stay in the expensive hotel rooms. If you already have an AP and live locally why not stop in when they start running projections and small pyrotechnics. It’s a free trip in. After the pandemic when Disney needs to compete again to bring in the more lucrative guests that isn’t going to excite people. Remember that the business model has shifted from a daily amusement park (Universal, Bush Gardens, Sea World) to a resort and dining business (even the dining part is evolving to more commercial real estate landlord vs true running of restaurants). The goal is to bring in tourists and fill the expensive hotel rooms and restaurants. People pay a heavy premium to stay at CR, Poly or GF and that includes eitjer a view of MK fireworks from their room or the ability to go down to the pool deck to watch. Look at the difference in price or in the case of BLT the difference in points for a room with MK fireworks views. One of the central marketing pushes for Riviera (besides the skyway station) is a rooftop restaurant with views of EPCOT night entertainment. For EPCOT you also have the extra draw of dining. If they want to fill all the expensive restaurants they need a show at the end of the night to keep people there.
At the end of the day I don’t know one way or the other which way the ball will bounce, but I’d put good money on a return of MK fireworks and an EPCOT night show and most likely Fantasmic as well. Everyone else is free to disagree. If this vaccine rolls out smoothly we may now for sure as early as this summer and definitely by Fall