Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 82 new reported deaths.

Florida has also now crossed 1 million total cases -

 

[wdwmagic]

Numbers are out - there were 82 new reported deaths.

Florida has also now crossed 1 million total cases -

View attachment 516573View attachment 516575View attachment 516576View attachment 516577View attachment 516578

Yikes, very close to 10%

 

[JoeCamel]

Another spin on this is that PA is dead last (51st including D.C.) in tests conducted per capita. Florida is 26th. It stands to reason if PA were in the middle of the pack, there would be thousands more cases.

Another spin on this is that PA is dead last (51st including D.C.) in tests conducted per capita. Florida is 26th. It stands to reason if PA were in the middle of the pack, there would be thousands more cases.
We can cherry pick time periods, and we can also cherry pick specific stats to make states look better than others: cases, cases per million, death rate, positivity, testing rate.... I’m not sure what is most important. But no state has handled this perfectly.
Except maybe Vermont.

Numbers are out - there were 82 new reported deaths.

Florida has also now crossed 1 million total cases -

View attachment 516573View attachment 516575View attachment 516576View attachment 516577View attachment 516578

Yikes, very close to 10%

We're commin' for ya' PA!

 

[DisneyDebRob]

We're commin' for ya' PA!

Just try and catch us. Numbers are just horrible.

 

[Turtlekrawl]

Just try and catch us. Numbers are just horrible.

And Illinois says: “hold my beer”

 

[GoofGoof]

Another spin on this is that PA is dead last (51st including D.C.) in tests conducted per capita. Florida is 26th. It stands to reason if PA were in the middle of the pack, there would be thousands more cases.

Another spin on this is that PA is dead last (51st including D.C.) in tests conducted per capita. Florida is 26th. It stands to reason if PA were in the middle of the pack, there would be thousands more cases.
We can cherry pick time periods, and we can also cherry pick specific stats to make states look better than others: cases, cases per million, death rate, positivity, testing rate.... I’m not sure what is most important. But no state has handled this perfectly.
Except maybe Vermont.

Look at percent positive then. If the cases are understated due to lack of testing then you would see it in percent positive. That’s just not the case. Sorry, but we can’t just blame The number of cases on testing. Some guy tried that once and it didn’t go over well.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Florida surpasses 1 million coronavirus cases

The state trails behind only California and Texas for the most coronavirus cases since late January.

www.google.com

Good thing they had this figured out 6 months ago, huh?

 

[Turtlekrawl]

Look at percent positive then. If the cases are understated due to lack of testing then you would see it in percent positive. That’s just not the case. Sorry, but we can’t just blame The number of cases on testing. Some guy tried that once and it didn’t go over well.

If I read the data right, Florida’s highest 7-day positivity rate at any point has been just under 16% - over the summer.
Pennsylvania has been over 25% twice - in the spring and now. Big difference.

I’m (sadly) from IL and don’t have a horse in this race. I just try to look at all the numbers - can spin them many ways

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Another spin on this is that PA is dead last (51st including D.C.) in tests conducted per capita. Florida is 26th. It stands to reason if PA were in the middle of the pack, there would be thousands more cases.

Another spin on this is that PA is dead last (51st including D.C.) in tests conducted per capita. Florida is 26th. It stands to reason if PA were in the middle of the pack, there would be thousands more cases.
We can cherry pick time periods, and we can also cherry pick specific stats to make states look better than others: cases, cases per million, death rate, positivity, testing rate.... I’m not sure what is most important. But no state has handled this perfectly.
Except maybe Vermont.

You got the “spin” part right.

More testing just identifiers more of the cases that are out there anyway...nothing more. More testing also should scare more into prevention/compliance.

The only reality is that stupidity has and continues to be the enemy. National embarrassment.

 

[mmascari]

It’s higher over a specific 7 day period. It’s absolutely cherry picking data. So are you both then saying that the other 25+ 7 day periods where the numbers were better in PA that the FL Governor was wrong. You are playing gotcha with the statistics and that’s fine to do if you want to play games. The longer term outlook is obviously all that matters but sure for one 7 day period FL has better stats than PA. Not sure what that proves.

I read a bunch of these back and forth messages and wondered what was up. Which lead me to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#compare-trends_newcasesper100k and comparing FL and PA.

I think it's a fair question about what's happened in PA over the course of November. Which isn't a random period, but the most recent period. By all accounts, PA has been doing things more rationally than FL, but PA is trending worse faster than FL in the most recent time period. The earlier periods show PA was trending better and now it's trending worse.

This doesn't mean PA should adapt FL's plan, which by reports seems more laissez faire. Plus FL is tending worse too, just slower than PA is trending worse. But, it does raise questions about why is PA tending so poorly now when it had been trending so much better before. Knowing this would help others from falling into the same predicament.

I didn't see a comparison between the PA and FL percent positive that I was sure used the same calculation. But, it's trend would provide some insight too.

From @DCBaker posts, we know FL never got below 5%. For weeks I was reading those posts and seeing under 100K tests per day, thinking if they could just test and trace more, below 5% was possible. Now it's been weeks of mostly over 100K tests per day, and it's trending above 7% or 8% getting worse not better. This makes me think it's still mostly people on their own and not contact tracing leading to testing. With the larger number and higher percent simply reflecting larger community spread and not increased testing to isolate virus.

If the PA number using the same formula is even worse, something bad happened in PA in November.

I'm in MD, and it seems to be between the two. We're struggling to understand why we're trending the wrong way too. Other than it's colder now than it was in the summer.

 

[networkpro]

So what’s your solution?

There hasnt been one for centuries.

 

[Kman]

I read a bunch of these back and forth messages and wondered what was up. Which lead me to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#compare-trends_newcasesper100k and comparing FL and PA.

I think it's a fair question about what's happened in PA over the course of November. Which isn't a random period, but the most recent period. By all accounts, PA has been doing things more rationally than FL, but PA is trending worse faster than FL in the most recent time period. The earlier periods show PA was trending better and now it's trending worse.

This doesn't mean PA should adapt FL's plan, which by reports seems more laissez faire. Plus FL is tending worse too, just slower than PA is trending worse. But, it does raise questions about why is PA tending so poorly now when it had been trending so much better before. Knowing this would help others from falling into the same predicament.

I didn't see a comparison between the PA and FL percent positive that I was sure used the same calculation. But, it's trend would provide some insight too.

From @DCBaker posts, we know FL never got below 5%. For weeks I was reading those posts and seeing under 100K tests per day, thinking if they could just test and trace more, below 5% was possible. Now it's been weeks of mostly over 100K tests per day, and it's trending above 7% or 8% getting worse not better. This makes me think it's still mostly people on their own and not contact tracing leading to testing. With the larger number and higher percent simply reflecting larger community spread and not increased testing to isolate virus.

If the PA number using the same formula is even worse, something bad happened in PA in November.

I'm in MD, and it seems to be between the two. We're struggling to understand why we're trending the wrong way too. Other than it's colder now than it was in the summer.

Is it possible that because of the weather more people are inside compared to folks in Florida? I think that's the biggest difference. I know it's happening up here in Canada

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I read a bunch of these back and forth messages and wondered what was up. Which lead me to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#compare-trends_newcasesper100k and comparing FL and PA.

I think it's a fair question about what's happened in PA over the course of November. Which isn't a random period, but the most recent period. By all accounts, PA has been doing things more rationally than FL, but PA is trending worse faster than FL in the most recent time period. The earlier periods show PA was trending better and now it's trending worse.

This doesn't mean PA should adapt FL's plan, which by reports seems more laissez faire. Plus FL is tending worse too, just slower than PA is trending worse. But, it does raise questions about why is PA tending so poorly now when it had been trending so much better before. Knowing this would help others from falling into the same predicament.

I didn't see a comparison between the PA and FL percent positive that I was sure used the same calculation. But, it's trend would provide some insight too.

From @DCBaker posts, we know FL never got below 5%. For weeks I was reading those posts and seeing under 100K tests per day, thinking if they could just test and trace more, below 5% was possible. Now it's been weeks of mostly over 100K tests per day, and it's trending above 7% or 8% getting worse not better. This makes me think it's still mostly people on their own and not contact tracing leading to testing. With the larger number and higher percent simply reflecting larger community spread and not increased testing to isolate virus.

If the PA number using the same formula is even worse, something bad happened in PA in November.

I'm in MD, and it seems to be between the two. We're struggling to understand why we're trending the wrong way too. Other than it's colder now than it was in the summer.

Pennsylvania has been at war with itself...moreso every year.

There has been (reportedly) a ton of non-compliance in the western part (where I grew up) even as they had done ok but started to go badly in the eastern part (near me now) in recent weeks...

People have been more indoors now, the election season was divisive...

But the mentality used to be that no one ever went to the doctor unless sick. If that still holds true - that’s a recipe for a ridiculous positivity rate and a disaster winter in the commonwealth

...and now i’m so far off the grid, I’ve lapped myself

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There hasnt been one for centuries.

Better management...more informed citizenry

Pretty much the standard- but elusive - fix to any problem

 

[Lora Baines Bradley]

Dumb question, but is that percent positivity of the whole population or of everyone tested?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Dumb question, but is that percent positivity of the whole population or of everyone tested?

Those tested

 

[Patcheslee]

I read a bunch of these back and forth messages and wondered what was up. Which lead me to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#compare-trends_newcasesper100k and comparing FL and PA.

I think it's a fair question about what's happened in PA over the course of November. Which isn't a random period, but the most recent period. By all accounts, PA has been doing things more rationally than FL, but PA is trending worse faster than FL in the most recent time period. The earlier periods show PA was trending better and now it's trending worse.

This doesn't mean PA should adapt FL's plan, which by reports seems more laissez faire. Plus FL is tending worse too, just slower than PA is trending worse. But, it does raise questions about why is PA tending so poorly now when it had been trending so much better before. Knowing this would help others from falling into the same predicament.

I didn't see a comparison between the PA and FL percent positive that I was sure used the same calculation. But, it's trend would provide some insight too.

From @DCBaker posts, we know FL never got below 5%. For weeks I was reading those posts and seeing under 100K tests per day, thinking if they could just test and trace more, below 5% was possible. Now it's been weeks of mostly over 100K tests per day, and it's trending above 7% or 8% getting worse not better. This makes me think it's still mostly people on their own and not contact tracing leading to testing. With the larger number and higher percent simply reflecting larger community spread and not increased testing to isolate virus.

If the PA number using the same formula is even worse, something bad happened in PA in November.

I'm in MD, and it seems to be between the two. We're struggling to understand why we're trending the wrong way too. Other than it's colder now than it was in the summer.

Just compared Indiana to FL and PA . It is a nice comparison tool though.

 

[SamusAranX]

I read a bunch of these back and forth messages and wondered what was up. Which lead me to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#compare-trends_newcasesper100k and comparing FL and PA.

I think it's a fair question about what's happened in PA over the course of November. Which isn't a random period, but the most recent period. By all accounts, PA has been doing things more rationally than FL, but PA is trending worse faster than FL in the most recent time period. The earlier periods show PA was trending better and now it's trending worse.

This doesn't mean PA should adapt FL's plan, which by reports seems more laissez faire. Plus FL is tending worse too, just slower than PA is trending worse. But, it does raise questions about why is PA tending so poorly now when it had been trending so much better before. Knowing this would help others from falling into the same predicament.

I didn't see a comparison between the PA and FL percent positive that I was sure used the same calculation. But, it's trend would provide some insight too.

From @DCBaker posts, we know FL never got below 5%. For weeks I was reading those posts and seeing under 100K tests per day, thinking if they could just test and trace more, below 5% was possible. Now it's been weeks of mostly over 100K tests per day, and it's trending above 7% or 8% getting worse not better. This makes me think it's still mostly people on their own and not contact tracing leading to testing. With the larger number and higher percent simply reflecting larger community spread and not increased testing to isolate virus.

If the PA number using the same formula is even worse, something bad happened in PA in November.

I'm in MD, and it seems to be between the two. We're struggling to understand why we're trending the wrong way too. Other than it's colder now than it was in the summer.

It looks to me like an inverse of each other; Florida had a "worse" first wave, and now a slightly "better" (in relative terms compared to it's first surge) second wave; while PA had a relatively tame "first wave" and it's bearing the brunt of the second wave. as to why, i can't answer that. PA is one of the most restrictive states right now in terms of mandates.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I read a bunch of these back and forth messages and wondered what was up. Which lead me to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#compare-trends_newcasesper100k and comparing FL and PA.

I think it's a fair question about what's happened in PA over the course of November. Which isn't a random period, but the most recent period. By all accounts, PA has been doing things more rationally than FL, but PA is trending worse faster than FL in the most recent time period. The earlier periods show PA was trending better and now it's trending worse.

This doesn't mean PA should adapt FL's plan, which by reports seems more laissez faire. Plus FL is tending worse too, just slower than PA is trending worse. But, it does raise questions about why is PA tending so poorly now when it had been trending so much better before. Knowing this would help others from falling into the same predicament.

I didn't see a comparison between the PA and FL percent positive that I was sure used the same calculation. But, it's trend would provide some insight too.

From @DCBaker posts, we know FL never got below 5%. For weeks I was reading those posts and seeing under 100K tests per day, thinking if they could just test and trace more, below 5% was possible. Now it's been weeks of mostly over 100K tests per day, and it's trending above 7% or 8% getting worse not better. This makes me think it's still mostly people on their own and not contact tracing leading to testing. With the larger number and higher percent simply reflecting larger community spread and not increased testing to isolate virus.

If the PA number using the same formula is even worse, something bad happened in PA in November.

I'm in MD, and it seems to be between the two. We're struggling to understand why we're trending the wrong way too. Other than it's colder now than it was in the summer.

I think something everyone is missing is that people in PA are indoors now more then FL for obvious reasons. No it hasn’t been snowing but nights have been in the 20’s and 30’s most nights for a few weeks. There have been exceptions with a few days in the 60’s but for the most part I have seen less people out and have heard of more indoor get together and parties then at anytime, even the spring. Just my 2 cents for what it’s worth.
I’m wondering if Florida was cold, and DeSantis was running things the same way he is, if the state wouldn’t be closed.

 

[Parker in NYC]

There hasnt been one for centuries.

Well, I know one thing. I'm sure glad NYC isn't in Florida. Florida overtook us in July. So, one solution... don't listen to DeSantis.