Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
You have a 50% shot of being vaccinated you mean, you could have unknowingly gotten the placebo.
Yes, half the people in the study got saline, the other half vaccine. It is a blinded study. But because the vaccine causes symptoms that the saline does not, then if you get both shots you may be able to deduce which you got.

One of the problem Pfizer admitted to as a possible reason why initial results were delayed was that subjects might be able to determine whether they had the vaccine vs the placebo (Which was saline in the Pfizer study).

First shot: Sore arm, not just in the deltoid where they administered the shot (They had you look away so you could not see the shot being injected since that would be a tell on whether you got the placebo.

Second shot 3 weeks later on a Friday:
Friday: Sore arm, not just on deltoid.
Saturday: 100.3 fever, chills, fatigue, and aches. [Saline does not cause this].
Sunday: Felt normal and great.

Wife went through the same with her Moderna shots. Though the odds of us both, in or respective studies, getting the vaccine was 25%, it seems we both did.
 
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Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
FWIW, some people do actually get side effects from a saline shot (the nocebo effect). But that seems to be more rare than the placebo effect.
Yes. I thought I might be suffering the placebo effect after the first shot, but not after the second shot.

When I was 17, I joined the Navy. In bootcamp I had a 103 fever for two weeks in the middle of bootcamp. I went once more into sickcall and asked the hospital coreman why do I have a 103 fever for two weeks. He turned to me and said, "Honestly, it is psychosomatic". he handed a chit for aspirin and told me to return to duty. While waiting to get the aspirin, a chief walked by and I asked. "Hey chief! How common is it for a fever to be psychosomatic?". he replied, "As common as telekinesis, Why?" . I showed him my record and he said come see him tomorrow if I still had one. I then was directed to a doctor for a sign off of the coreman's diagnosis and return to boot camp. The doctor checked my lungs, something the coreman did not do. For the next week I was in the hospital with a diagnosis of pneumonia. Glad the doctor took time to check me out vs rubber stamping the coreman's diagnosis.
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
@Disney Experience
I am vaccinated against Covid-19 with the Pfizer vaccine (Both shots in September), but I still wear a mask in indoor spaces where strangers gather. I may personally believe that the chances of me getting or passing on Covid-19 is small, but I still wear a mask where required. Studies have not yet proven that a vaccinated person cannot be a short term asymptomatic carrier[But animal studies point to it]. Also, how would anyone know I am vaccinated vs an avid no masker.[Some organization such as the IATA are working on digital vaccination records]

I had it back in March so I doubt I can catch it or transmit yet I want to model mask wearing for those that have not. I wear one inside of stores and practice correct usage in restaurants. I think the fatigue is real here (west FL), I see more and more people in stores without masks and a look in their eye of "just try to mess with me".
I don't know if you know Florida but I went to a wally in south Lakeland today and only about 70% were masked and in the sporting goods department where I went it was 0.0%. This is Grady country (Grady Judd sheriff) and they like their flags. My local wally it is 99.99% masking.
It is going to be a very long winter.
 
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GoofGoof

Premium Member
@Disney Experience
I am vaccinated against Covid-19 with the Pfizer vaccine (Both shots in September), but I still wear a mask in indoor spaces where strangers gather. I may personally believe that the chances of me getting or passing on Covid-19 is small, but I still wear a mask where required. Studies have not yet proven that a vaccinated person cannot be a short term asymptomatic carrier[But animal studies point to it]. Also, how would anyone know I am vaccinated vs an avid no masker.[Some organization such as the IATA are working on digital vaccination records]

I had it back in March so I doubt I can catch it or transmit yet I want to model mask wearing for those that have not so I wear one inside of stores and practice correct usage in restaurants. I think the fatigue is real here (west FL), I see more and more people in stores without masks and a look in their eye of "just try to mess with me".
I don't know if you know Florida but I went to a wally in south Lakeland today and only about 70% were masked and in the sporting goods department where I went it was 0.0%. This is Grady country (Grady Judd sheriff) and they like their flags. My local wally it is 99.99% masking.
It is going to be a very long winter.
Not good. It is crazy how different things are in different places. Where I am in PA the state sent out an emergency alert via cell phones about an hour ago to remind people that community spread is high and people should avoid unnecessary travel and to mask, distance and use proper hygiene if you do go out. Here’s the exact pop up message:
F27CDC15-3D7B-4D9F-AD26-C769FD84EBC5.jpeg


Here’s an article about the use of the emergency alert system.
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
Not good. It is crazy how different things are in different places. Where I am in PA the state sent out an emergency alert via cell phones about an hour ago to remind people that community spread is high and people should avoid unnecessary travel and to mask, distance and use proper hygiene if you do go out. Here’s the exact pop up message:
View attachment 515530

Here’s an article about the use of the emergency alert system.
We have the same directive sans the alert but a large contingent of sore losers that say "not me". I have no idea what will change them, maybe getting it or losing someone close that didn't have to die or become disabled. All I can do is me.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
We have the same directive sans the alert but a large contingent of sore losers that say "not me". I have no idea what will change them, maybe getting it or losing someone close that didn't have to die or become disabled. All I can do is me.
We have deniers here too. I’m just glad the state is actively trying to stress how important it is to try to avoid making the situation worse (I’ve given up on a quick improvement and would settle for a plateau at this point for 6 weeks or so). It’s a stark contrast to FL. I feel like there’s a percent of people who are already trying there best to follow recommendation, there‘s a percent of people who are going to resist no matter what and a big group in the middle who are picking and choosing their activity. I firmly believe those people want to do the right thing but are not sure what that actually is. They may not be as well versed in recommendations or maybe just clueless that there’s even an ask to avoid gatherings. I think something like that alert goes a long way for that crowd and that’s who they intend it for. It’s a little late in the game, but could still help.

I don’t favor a punitive approach with fines or raiding people’s Thanksgiving dinner to shut them down. I think most people want to do what’s right, we just need a clear message of what that is.
 

giantgolfer

Well-Known Member
Not good. It is crazy how different things are in different places. Where I am in PA the state sent out an emergency alert via cell phones about an hour ago to remind people that community spread is high and people should avoid unnecessary travel and to mask, distance and use proper hygiene if you do go out. Here’s the exact pop up message:
View attachment 515530

Here’s an article about the use of the emergency alert system.
I got that same alert and I’m in NJ.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
I'm cranky, due to having to reschedule my visit.

I'm also cranky because the mayor of Denver (thankfully, not my actual city, but as the metro goes...) has been harping about not traveling for Thanksgiving. Including a tweet today. 10 minutes later he boarded a plane to Houston so he could visit family in Mississippi.

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

Then watching all the other political officials try to spin it that it's not that bad, "Of course, he'll do the right thing by quarantining when he gets home (as if that helps the people he interacted with today!)," while also trying to not criticize the mayor.

We have deniers here too. I’m just glad the state is actively trying to stress how important it is to try to avoid making the situation worse (I’ve given up on a quick improvement and would settle for a plateau at this point for 6 weeks or so). It’s a stark contrast to FL. I feel like there’s a percent of people who are already trying there best to follow recommendation, there‘s a percent of people who are going to resist no matter what and a big group in the middle who are picking and choosing their activity. I firmly believe those people want to do the right thing but are not sure what that actually is. They may not be as well versed in recommendations or maybe just clueless that there’s even an ask to avoid gatherings. I think something like that alert goes a long way for that crowd and that’s who they intend it for. It’s a little late in the game, but could still help.

I don’t favor a punitive approach with fines or raiding people’s Thanksgiving dinner to shut them down. I think most people want to do what’s right, we just need a clear message of what that is.
I have seen epiTwitter say the same thing, that we just need clearer messaging. I think it's BS. I think everyone knows exactly what they should do, however we've all got a really bad case of, "But I don't want to." Everything else is just attempts to justify actions beyond, "I want." We've been taught since we were kids that "what you want" is not a proper justification for eating a cookie, let alone something as serious as ignoring health regulations. So since they can't say that, it's about how masks aren't effective, freedom, death rates, cherry-picking local data, etc. I get it. Doing the right thing, when everyone else is doing something else is hard. Peer pressure is a real thing! I spent the last week wrestling with myself over how safe I've been, and how safe I could be at airports, and that the risk of getting sick or my Dad sick was small, but I couldn't get away from, "That's not good enough." It was just me trying to talk myself into something other than the right thing (stay home, only with household members, only leave for essential activities.)

If the benefit for following the rules was a lot more than some abstract, "you might save someone's life," IMO, we'd be hearing a lot less about all of it. If everyone was told to wear a mask and stay home, and $25,000 would be direct deposited into your account every week during the duration, I think things would shift pretty quickly. Of course, that won't happen, but the situation now is there is little penalty for doing whatever the heck you want, and there is no reward for being prudent and responsible.

I do agree that there is a group who is trying to do the right thing, a portion who is kicking & screaming, with a big chunk of people in the middle that gravitate to what the prevailing winds are saying. When people were scared of the unknowns, they behaved. When restrictions were loosened, they relaxed. When cases spiked in certain regions, people their temporarily tightened things up and things improved. Then everyone got lazy because it felt like we were never going to have a NYC or Italy problem, and then it blew up. You can see the areas where behavior has improved because cases looked like they have peaked. This is why I think people know what they should do, because when things go bad, that middle shifts and they do start doing it.
 

DCBaker

Premium Member
"The drug maker AstraZeneca announced on Monday that an early analysis of some of its late-stage clinical trials, conducted in Britain and Brazil, showed that its coronavirus vaccine was 70.4 percent effective, on average, in preventing Covid-19, the latest encouraging sign that vaccines may fulfill their potential as the world’s best hope to help curb a pandemic that has killed more than 1.3 million people.

One particular dosing plan that was tested — giving people a half-dose first and then, a month later, a full dose, rather than two full doses — was 90 percent effective, the researchers said, raising hopes that AstraZeneca could create more vaccine doses using the same supply. Scientists also noted the vaccine could be stored in a standard refrigerator, rather than the intense chill needed with other potential vaccines."

Following up on this with some new information posted by the NYT today -


"The announcement this week that a cheap, easy-to-make coronavirus vaccine appeared to be up to 90 percent effective was greeted with jubilation. “Get yourself a vaccaccino,” a British tabloid celebrated, noting that the vaccine, developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, costs less than a cup of coffee.

But since unveiling the preliminary results, AstraZeneca has acknowledged a key mistake in the vaccine dosage received by some study participants, adding to questions about whether the vaccine’s apparently spectacular efficacy will hold up under additional testing.

Scientists and industry experts said the error and a series of other irregularities and omissions in the way AstraZeneca initially disclosed the data have eroded their confidence in the reliability of the results.

Officials in the United States have noted that the results were not clear. It was the head of the flagship federal vaccine initiative — not the company — who first disclosed that the vaccine’s most promising results did not reflect data from older people.

The upshot, the experts said, is that the odds of regulators in the United States and elsewhere quickly authorizing the emergency use of the AstraZeneca vaccine are declining, an unexpected setback in the global campaign to corral the devastating pandemic."

"In an interview on Wednesday, Menelas Pangalos, the AstraZeneca executive in charge of much of the company’s research and development, defended the company’s handling of the testing and its public disclosures. He said the error in the dosage was made by a contractor, and that, once it was discovered, regulators were immediately notified and signed off on the plan to continue testing the vaccine in different doses.

Asked why AstraZeneca shared some information with Wall Street analysts and some other officials and experts but not with the public, he responded, “I think the best way of reflecting the results is in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, not in a newspaper.”

"AstraZeneca was the third company this month to report encouraging early results on a coronavirus vaccine candidate. At first glance on Monday morning, the results looked promising. Depending on the strength at which the doses were given, the vaccine appeared to be either 90 percent or 62 percent effective. The average efficacy, the developers said, was 70 percent.

Almost immediately, though, there were doubts about the data.

The regimen that appeared to be 90 percent effective was based on participants receiving a half dose of the vaccine followed a month later by a full dose; the less effective version involved a pair of full doses. AstraZeneca disclosed in its initial announcement that fewer than 2,800 participants received the smaller dosing regimen, compared with nearly 8,900 participants who received two full doses.

The biggest questions were, why was there such a large variation in the effectiveness of the vaccine at different doses, and why did a smaller dose appear to produce much better results? AstraZeneca and Oxford researchers said they did not know.

Crucial information was also missing. The company said that the early analysis was based on 131 symptomatic Covid-19 cases that had turned up in study participants. But it did not break down how many cases were found in each group of participants — those who received the half-strength initial dose, the regular-strength initial dose and the placebo.

“The press release raised more questions than it answered,” said John Moore, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical College.

Adding to the confusion, AstraZeneca pooled the results from two differently designed clinical trials in Britain and Brazil, a break from standard practice in reporting the results of drug and vaccine trials."
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Not great news for the AstraZenica-Oxford vaccine. Seems some irregularities are now being reported.

Any approval in the US would be based on the US trial not the one in the UK or Brazil. I think we have to wait to see what the trial results here are. It sounds like maybe the issues are more a delay then a hard stop. If anything they may need additional trial participants. Something didn’t add up with the lower dose being more effective. I think it’s just going to take a little time to sort out.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
It’s been widely reported over here the thinking is the half dose makes the body begin to fight the virus, then the later full dose kicks it into overdrive. As it were.

It doesn’t make immunological sense though, the higher the viral load the more immune response you expect and the more side effects too. When a study contradicts what we understand about the immune system it’s going to be more heavily scrutinized.

There are also reports that there was a manufacturing glitch that resulted in those people being given the half dose inadvertently. If that’s true, then that means the two trial groups were not properly randomized against each other. This is just a big mess, this vaccine likely will need to repeat the trial.
 
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_caleb

Well-Known Member
I’m interested to see how competition factors in. The other vaccine candidates, though they require extreme cold storage, were quicker to announce their effectiveness. If these anomalies slow things too much for the AstraZenec-Oxford vaccine (or shake confidence) it could be a difficult setback to overcome. I believe people will start taking the first vaccine available to them that hasn’t had any testing/reporting irregularities.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
I’m interested to see how competition factors in. The other vaccine candidates, though they require extreme cold storage, were quicker to announce their effectiveness. If these anomalies slow things too much for the AstraZenec-Oxford vaccine (or shake confidence) it could be a difficult setback to overcome. I believe people will start taking the first vaccine available to them that hasn’t had any testing/reporting irregularities.
Many may have no choice. Even if delayed a bit, the cost of manufacturing and distribution may make vaccines like those from AstraZeneca the only real option available to some, especially those is less developed areas.
 
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