Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[sullyinMT]

In my opinion, before cruise ships are allowed to operate, there must be a vaccine, and you should be required to provide proof of COVID vaccination before being allowed to board a cruise ship.

We’re saying the same thing. It doesn’t mean industry leaders don’t deserve the right to discuss how best to implement their next steps. As I see it, that’s all this is really doing.
Leave DCL out for a minute (they won’t be first to sail by a long shot). Let’s say CCL and NCL are the first major lines out, and RCCL follows a month or so later. First, they need to reposition fleet. Then, they’ll need clearance not just from the CDC, but from their respective ports of call. My guess is they’d have those ducks in a row first. Next, they’d have to recall and re-hire crews from all over the world and (best guess) quarantine them on land before quarantining them on ship. As that process is moving, they’ll be restocking galleys, retraining even seasoned staff on new protocols, etc. Maybe even obtaining testing kits?
Point is, that is all WAY longer than the 30 day period we currently have before the 12/1 sailings of any major line. But it’s a process they should be allowed to start and get approved.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Cruise ships and theme parks are two total different things!!! It’s been proven that we can safely open and run theme parks and if you are in a theme park and feel unsafe, you can leave!

There is no reason DLR is still closed except politics.

On a ship you are a captive! And if a case is discovered on a ship, both sick and well are held on the ship until they figure out their next move. I feel safe at a theme park, but a cruise ship scares me. COVID aside, we have seen cruise ships get infected with various sicknesses.

In my opinion, cruise ships are floating COVID hot spots waiting to happen.

In my opinion, before cruise ships are allowed to operate, there must be a vaccine, and you should be required to provide proof of COVID vaccination before being allowed to board a cruise ship.

I mean...can you just not obsess about going to Disneyland??

But now I have to disagree with you when I shouldn’t: you’re scared of cruise ships where its most likely everyone on board will HAVE To be tested...but ok in meat market free for all amusement parks where low paid workers and tourists from all over come and go as they please??

It must be freaky Friday

 

[lazyboy97o]

You know who else felt safe? Most people who get COVID-19.

 

[sullyinMT]

...I mean...I guess you get partial credit for “effort”...but the paper is still not gonna make the deans list

That works today because case spread isn’t rampant and there are actual protocols a lot of places. For example a senior can ride the bus or go to a grocery store or go to a doctor‘s office because the people around them are practicing distancing and wearing masks. Flash forward to a scenario where restrictions are lifted and there’s no masks and no distancing and no businesses closed so that those who aren’t high risk can do things deemed more risky. Now the same senior can’t ride the bus because the people who went to a concert the night before are sitting on the bus and they aren’t wearing masks. The grocery store becomes more problematic. Senior hours eliminate other shoppers but what about staff? The guy slicing meat at the deli counter could be in the let me do what I want camp. He has a much higher chance of infecting the senior. What happens to a person in the high risk group who is a single mother of 2 and needs to work outside the home. She now has to go to work and be exposed to people who are allowed to take more risks. It’s not practical to tell all of these people they must stay home and only come out during senior hours at the grocery store. It’s much more practical to have protocols in place that reduce spread making it easier for everyone to do what they need to.

On the economic front its a disaster. Taking half the population and only recommending they shop during senior hours is a death blow to many businesses. It may help bars or some restaurants in the short run but it would have devastating long term impacts.

Thank you. I’m still rambling in my head how best to have responded to this one.

 

[DisneyTransport]

I've never been on a cruise (just not my cup of tea) but I would think the best action is to have SOPs for each boat. Would it depend on how the boat is arranged? Can guests open windows, how much deck space is there, what the HVAC system is like, etc? Just a few thoughts, nothing that is affected by covid has had a "one size fits all" solution.

 

[GimpYancIent]

CDC allows No-Sail Order to expire and will open the door for resuming cruise ship operations​

CDC allows No-Sail Order to expire and will open the door for resuming cruise ship operations

CDC is establishing requirements to mitigate the COVID-19 risk to passengers and crew as it looks to resume cruises.

www.wdwmagic.com

Bottom of the list for travel would be the floating Petri dishes. Illnesses eagerly look forward to a resumption of cruising.

 

[NickMaio]

Nobody is disputing that herd immunity is a concept. It's based on reducing the number of interactions between infected people and people that are able to be infected.

Here's a good visualization

In the context of COVID, and hence assumed in this thread, the discussion has been if the number of people that cannot be infected can be achieved through natural infection instead of with a vaccine. Along with some details on how large that number needs to be, probably more than flu but less than measles. Combined with questions on how many are already infected, assuming the reported number is orders of magnitude to low. Plus mixing in a little bit of if being infected actually turns someone into "cannot be infected" and for how long.

In the visualization, if all the green dots already had COVID and recovered instead of getting a vaccine.


When someone says, and this is what's assumed in this thread, that the plan to deal with COVID is "natural herd immunity" it's being interpreted as "enough people are infected with COVID that then become no longer able to be infected again as a percentage of the population that transmission to new cases is reduced to a low number.

That's the scenario that people are saying is not possible.

Or, rather, the death toll to get there is unacceptable. Combined with that it's not a final state. As the population turns over, the "no longer able to be infected" percentage will drop and new cases will rise until it's lowered again. A repetitive cycle of deaths, mostly in kids.

A vaccine solves this problem in two ways. First, it lets us create a huge number of "no longer able to be infected". Second it does this with a very low risk. All those decimal points in the safety percentage are important when the doses given is such a huge number.

The math isn't hard:
Population * Immune % = Number Immune to achieve Required herd immunity.

Getting there naturally through infection instead of vaccine means:
Population * Immune % = Number Infected to get natural herd immunity.

Now do the death toll.
Number Infected * COVID Death% = Deaths.

Combined it's:
Population * Immune % * COVID Death% = Deaths to achieve natural herd immunity.

We can debate the different scenarios:
328,239,523 * 60% * 2.59% = 5,102,205 deaths.
328,239,523 * 20% * 0.26% = 170,685 deaths.


So, for everyone that's all about how natural herd immunity will get us there, what's your guess at two percentages and how many deaths are acceptable to you?

Thank you......thank you......thank you.

 

[sullyinMT]

Bottom of the list for travel would be the floating Petri dishes. Illnesses eagerly look forward to a resumption of cruising.

Meh. They’re also waiting for next month’s Thanksgiving parties. At least a ship can act as an isolation ward of sorts if it gets out of hand on any particular sailing.
As @Sirwalterraleigh pointed out, testing protocols are likely to be very stringent. Maybe even safer than the Thanksgiving party. Or the Super Bowl parties in February (if they get that far)

 

[Armerius]

Well as florida cases have started to climb again lets all get rdy for WDW to close again in the near future. ffs

 

[DisneyTransport]

Well as florida cases have started to climb again lets all get rdy for WDW to close again in the near future. ffs

If wdw closes again, oh boy are we in for a show. I would expect more layoffs as a result too, and with a lot of CMs who exhausted their DEO benefits during the first furlough... no idea how it will work. But i dont think wdw will close unless there is pressure from somewhere showing a lot of people getting covid as a direct result of visiting

 

[GoofGoof]

Thank you. I’m still rambling in my head how best to have responded to this one.

I’m all for outside the box thinking and I don’t want people to think I’m saying nobody else can have an opinion. None of this is easy. I wish there was a way to open everything with no restrictions and keep cases down. I think maybe we could have gotten there with a major push towards frequent testing and extreme tracing including the use of the smart phone apps. If people bought into that from the start (including the government) we would have had a shot. Some college campuses are showing that the plan can work in a controlled area. If we had regular (maybe even daily testing) combined with heavy tracing we could knock down outbreaks before they start. In theory if we could get anyone who had potential exposure to test frequently then we’d catch the asymptomatic early and trace and isolate them. I read somewhere that they estimate up to 50% of the spread occurs before symptoms ever show (if they show at all). The only way to fight that is to continuously test people with no symptoms but I knows lot of people wouldn’t want that. Some of the same people who want everything open without restrictions.

 

[GoofGoof]

If wdw closes again, oh boy are we in for a show. I would expect more layoffs as a result too, and with a lot of CMs who exhausted their DEO benefits during the first furlough... no idea how it will work. But i dont think wdw will close unless there is pressure from somewhere showing a lot of people getting covid as a direct result of visiting

I agree that WDW won’t close. I’ve been wrong on a lot of stuff so far with this pandemic so don’t be surprised if it does

Well as florida cases have started to climb again lets all get rdy for WDW to close again in the near future. ffs

Well cases were double where they are today when WDW re-opened.

 

[danlb_2000]

Delaware just extended it's state of emergency by another 30 days (again) and is re-entering lock-downs.

I see the new about the state of emergency, but I can't find anything about lock down changes, even on Delaware's covid site.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I see the new about the state of emergency, but I can't find anything about lock down changes, even on Delaware's covid site.

She might be speculating about that part...she's usually good about not exaggerating...but she could be.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Belgium just went into a real lockdown with curfews, work from home mandatory, stores only selling essentials, etc. .https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/global-covid-report-belgium-facing-new-lockdown-as-germany-takes-in-patients

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Meh. They’re also waiting for next month’s Thanksgiving parties. At least a ship can act as an isolation ward of sorts if it gets out of hand on any particular sailing.
As @Sirwalterraleigh pointed out, testing protocols are likely to be very stringent. Maybe even safer than the Thanksgiving party. Or the Super Bowl parties in February (if they get that far)

What people forget is that cruise lines have been studying/adapting their ships to combat noro virus outbreaks for 20 years.

Honestly: I feel as safe on a cruise ship from exposure as I do in wdw. People have convinced themselves there is no risk in Orlando...and while I’d love to think that’s true, it doesn’t fit the reality.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I see the new about the state of emergency, but I can't find anything about lock down changes, even on Delaware's covid site.

That seems right...lockdowns aren’t there - yet. But I’ll tell you for sure that Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey are incredibly nervous right now. The public health people are fighting apathy that created a powderkeg.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

The answer is not to close everything down again...biggest mistake.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The answer is not to close everything down again...biggest mistake.

And it’s unlikely that will happen...nor has it yet in any location.

But I think you’re opinion is well documented. As is mine: I don’t want lockdowns, I want intelligent decisions and results - whatever that may be.

 

[GoofGoof]

The answer was for people to follow the requirements laid out. Too many people failed to take that path...so here we are. My kids are finally supposed to be going back to school in a week, that’s not looking too good if things continue.