I hope you are right but I expect the worst. That 220,000+ that have died - that happened almost entirely during the warmer months, when viruses tend to spread less easily due to better ventilation, higher humidity, more outdoor activities and stronger immune systems. We are entering the period when viruses do spread much more easily, hence the worry.
And let's not forget that the holidays are around the corner. Many will be reluctant to miss seeing their families during the holidays, particularly Christmas. That is when things have the potential to get bad. Throw the flu into the mix, which could spread in tandem with COVID, and there is a reason to be concerned and prepare.
Also, the IHME model does predict a big surge.