You mean the data point with an asterisk?
Would you look at the low number of new cases on 9/27 (see above) and declare victory?
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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You mean the data point with an asterisk?
Would you look at the low number of new cases on 9/27 (see above) and declare victory?
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
And 10/9 had the highest positivity while testing few folks. That's all due to the weird data dump yesterday. If you combine the two days, positivity is ~4%, which is where Florida has been running. It definitely better to see continued flat-to-slightly-decreasing trends continue instead of the upwards trajectory much of the world is seeing.
Although the Europe spike is troubling, there is some world-wide good news. The other two countries with the highest cases outside the US have seen improvement. Brazil has seen a small but steady decrease in active cases for 2 months now and India has been on a downward trend for almost a month. Those are countries with, in general, a more dense population and worse medical care than the US.
Lora Baines Bradley
Well-Known Member
I hope they increase CM enforcement in WS. SO many people improperly wearing masks, and/or walking while eating and drinking. It was obvious some people were using it as an excuse not to wear a mask."New signage has been spotted in Magic Kingdom at Walt Disney World that reminds guests that they will be kicked out of the theme parks if they don’t follow the face mask policy.
Not only will not wearing a mask at all result in a Cast Member asking you to put one on, but the improper use of a mask is also grounds for eviction from the park. Improper use could be anything from having your nose exposed to walking and eating or drinking."
View attachment 504020
New Disney World Signage Reminds Guests That They Will Be Asked to Leave for Not Following Face Mask Policy
Walt Disney World news, photos, and reviews! We provide you with daily news from the Walt Disney World theme parks and beyondblogmickey.com
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Looks like the last 2 days have an average of 2,745 positive with a percent positive of 4.24% on around 70K tests. Pretty consistent. Better than half the last 12 days and worse than the other half. It’s hard to gain anything from this when they have a data error. Best to look at 7 day averages.
Last 7 days - daily avg of 2,545 positives 17,815 positive on 444,364 tests = 4.0%
Previous 7 days - daily avg of 2,309 positives 16,163 positive on 397,951 tests = 4.1%
For reference FL needs to get below a 2,100 daily 7 day average to get of most of the travel quarantine lists. They have been good on percent positive for a number of weeks now.
So looking at the weekly averages the positive totals are up 10% week over week and percent positive is almost identical which means slightly more infection overall. Things look pretty consistent overall week over week. Definitely not trending down anymore, but not spiking either. The next few weeks should be interesting to watch as the impact of removing restrictions would be seen several weeks later if history repeats itself. If there’s no increase by the end of October then that’s a very good sign.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Interesting. The percent positive seems to be different than just adding the daily positives and dividing by the daily tests. Based on this graph both total positives and percent positive seem to be trending up.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
I wouldn't call 2 days a trend, particularly with the data dump yesterday probably still confusing things.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I’m just talking week over week today vs a week ago, 10/3. Cases and percent positive are up. Taking the 7 day average a week apart smoothes out any issues with daily reporting.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Sad but true. After posting I wanted at preference my post with “If you choose to trust the data”. Folks on both sides of the argument; “the world must lock down till there are zero new cases and Florida is nuts” VS. “99.4 percent of folks who get COVID survive so let’s open up” can use the data to make their case.
I want to trust the data but most of the time I am weary of it. Most suspicious is the death caused by COVID, in my opinion, there are a lot of judgement calls made here. Just my opinion.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
It was a pretty simple problem and they added the asterisk to tell you to just look at the 2 days combined. I don’t think it’s any reason to not trust the data. I know the conspiracy theorists out there will always doubt any data, especially when it suits their agenda. I am not telling anyone else what to think.
For me personally I have serious doubts that there’s some grand conspiracy to inflate Covid deaths amongst many, many people who spent years in school to become doctors. It doesn’t pass my sniff test. It’s treated the same way any infectious disease is treated bjt most people never knew or cared how the stats were complied. If Covid deaths are overstated than so are the annual flu deaths people love to compare Covid to. Again, just my thoughts. People are obviously free to believe whatever they want.
Kman
Well-Known Member
It's the distrust of science for some strange reason. Same group that tends to believe in a young or, worse, flat earth. Science is not perfect but it's not a conspiracy contrary to what some might think
pocketlint
Member
Florida reports 5,570 cases, 180 deaths Sunday after going silent the day before
The Health Department released no numbers Saturday, saying it needed to sort through an influx of duplicate reports.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Totally agree. Folks can look at the same data and can rationalize whatever fits their own personal opinion... This applies to everything, not only COVID..
pocketlint
Member
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Minor nitpick, but it's a pet peeve of mine and I've seen it a lot recently. It's "wary", not "weary".
hopemax
Well-Known Member
I don't know, I'm pretty weary of looking at data everyday. Maybe if it wasn't trustworthy, I could stop checking.
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
Maybe if people stayed away from the political comments and stayed on topic. Instead we get talk about the " zombie apocalypse" and people complaining about restrictions in place. If we could just get over it. The restrictions are what they are. Let's move on to how to live with Covid and how Disney can live with it.
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Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
#OpenDisneylandNow. 
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
The way they calculated the average for that chart does not provide any useful information about trends. They just did an average of the percent for each of the last seven days. It isn't "percent positive for all tests in the last seven days." Therefore, 10/9 and 10/10 include the outlier of over 7% (on very few tests) from 10/9 in the average. It's a bad graphic.
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