Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Where's the best place to live? Oh wait. That's off topic.

Anyhoo... reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage and 2 doses)​

​

Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: no estimate given​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage and 2 doses)​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

​

Warp Speed: $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine A” – health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Regulatory review in Oct.​

AstraZeneca/Oxford

Type: altered chimp adenovirus​

​

Warp Speed: $1.2B​

​

Phase 3: in progress, recently started​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

​

Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

​

Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, it should be 50% more protected.​

​

If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

​

An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

​

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made.​

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely.

Good summary. The 2 logistical things that could delay the process of getting enough people vaccinated are the ultra cold storage limitation and the fact that the vaccines require 2 doses usually 30 days apart. On the cold storage side I think it just makes it that much more difficult to distribute to medical providers. You would probably need large numbers of people to go to a centralized location vs sending it to every doctors office and CVS. The 2 dose thing just cuts the number of people in half. For example if the US government buys 100M doses that only vaccinated 50M people since everyone needs 2.

 

[Kevin_W]

Where's the best place to live? Oh wait. That's off topic.

Anyhoo... reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage and 2 doses)​

​

Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: no estimate given​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage and 2 doses)​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

​

Warp Speed: $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine A” – health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Regulatory review in Oct.​

AstraZeneca/Oxford

Type: altered chimp adenovirus​

​

Warp Speed: $1.2B​

​

Phase 3: in progress, recently started​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

​

Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

​

Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, it should be 50% more protected.​

​

If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

​

An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

​

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made.​

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely.

Thanks for the summary. What is "ultra cold"? Water ice? Dry ice? Liquid nitrogen?

 

[Jwink]

Compared to a month ago, FL is doing good.

But this week was more of a plateau. The downward trending is leveling off. And that's what got FL into trouble last time, because they didn't keep working to lower the number, then the numbers increased.

Back to school and a Labor Day weekend isn't going to help.

Right? I was gonna ask what’s so good about it… Looks the same to me LOL

 

[MisterPenguin]

Crazy scenario, but let's say one or more vaccines pass Phase 3, and vaccine dosages begin publicly; then a few months later noticeable side effects and long term issues show in those vaccinated....is that "normal"? would they pause and go back to the drawing board, and recall the vaccine?

To be noticeable, they'd have to be very noticeable. Something like the same reaction in the same population and to occur outside statistical probability. We already have people connecting vaccines to all sorts of problems where there is zero scientific evidence for it. And it would have to be something that made sense, like an immune overreaction (like that which makes COVID deadly already for those for whom it is fatal). Any such correlation would have to stand in the face of millions of people *not* having a adverse reaction.

No medical procedure is without risk. A 'simple' surgical procedure can kill someone if a blood clot loosens during it. Introducing foreign bodies into human beings has a non-zero risk. But we take that risk to eradicate deadly diseases, like with did with small pox, but not so much with minor illnesses as with colds.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Thanks for the summary. What is "ultra cold"? Water ice? Dry ice? Liquid nitrogen?

I updated the outline:


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)​

The -70C is dry ice territory.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I updated the outline:


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)​

The -70C is dry ice territory.

Aren't Omaha Steaks shipped in dry ice?

 

[DCBaker]

Jellyrolls Dueling Piano Bar Reopening Delayed Indefinitely at Disney World

Walt Disney World news, photos, and reviews! We provide you with daily news from the Walt Disney World theme parks and beyond

blogmickey.com

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I love CA. Knowing I live here in CA brings me solace in these hard times.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Aren't Omaha Steaks shipped in dry ice?

Can they be injected?!?!

 

[GimpYancIent]

Aren't Omaha Steaks shipped in dry ice?

Yes, Yes they are and they are mighty tasty too, cooked medium rare.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Yes, Yes they are and they are mighty tasty too, cooked medium rare.

They sure are! (Bloodier, the better!)

 

[SamusAranX]

Compared to a month ago, FL is doing good.

But this week was more of a plateau. The downward trending is leveling off. And that's what got FL into trouble last time, because they didn't keep working to lower the number, then the numbers increased.

Back to school and a Labor Day weekend isn't going to help.

Some beaches in SoFlo are closing, hopefully many learned their lesson(s) from Memorial Day and limit their gathering sizes to a few people, if at all. It sucks, it really does; we normally do a large friend circle Labor Day beach day, but not this year.

To be noticeable, they'd have to be very noticeable. Something like the same reaction in the same population and to occur outside statistical probability. We already have people connecting vaccines to all sorts of problems where there is zero scientific evidence for it. And it would have to be something that made sense, like an immune overreaction (like that which makes COVID deadly already for those for whom it is fatal). Any such correlation would have to stand in the face of millions of people *not* having a adverse reaction.

No medical procedure is without risk. A 'simple' surgical procedure can kill someone if a blood clot loosens during it. Introducing foreign bodies into human beings has a non-zero risk. But we take that risk to eradicate deadly diseases, like with did with small pox, but not so much with minor illnesses as with colds.

I was thinking of something like this, ala human error or missed red flags unintentionally:

The Cutter Incident: How America's First Polio Vaccine Led to a Growing Vaccine Crisis - PMC

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

And no, I am not anti-vax. I got all my shots

 

[CJR]

Compared to a month ago, FL is doing good.

But this week was more of a plateau. The downward trending is leveling off. And that's what got FL into trouble last time, because they didn't keep working to lower the number, then the numbers increased.

Back to school and a Labor Day weekend isn't going to help.

And something concerning with this parallel is, just like last time, reopening bars is likely to happen soon. Hopefully they will have a better handle on things this time.

Don't get me wrong, I want bars to reopen too, but it needs to be right and I don't believe we're there yet. It's very, very risky right now. IMO.

We've been heading in the right direction, but we're not at the destination yet.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I was thinking of something like this, ala human error or missed red flags unintentionally:

The Cutter Incident: How America's First Polio Vaccine Led to a Growing Vaccine Crisis

Not to mention...

1976 swine flu outbreak - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And no, I am not anti-vax. I got all my shots

Including distemper?

 

[JoeCamel]

I can't imagine they have pregnant people in the trials, they wait to get the vaccine or take a chance? I'm thinking Thalidomide where the problem didn't show up until some detective work was done

 

[JoeCamel]

And something concerning with this parallel is, just like last time, reopening bars is likely to happen soon. Hopefully they will have a better handle on things this time.

Don't get me wrong, I want bars to reopen too, but it needs to be right and I don't believe we're there yet. It's very, very risky right now. IMO.

We've been heading in the right direction, but we're not at the destination yet.

DeSantis met with brew pubs yesterday. Didn't give a date but it was clear there is huge pressure to open.

 

[SamusAranX]

Some beaches in SoFlo are closing, hopefully many learned their lesson(s) from Memorial Day and limit their gathering sizes to a few people, if at all. It sucks, it really does; we normally do a large friend cir


I was thinking of something like this, human error or missed stuff because frankly, they mean it when they say "warp speed" with the COVID vaccine:

The Cutter Incident: How America's First Polio Vaccine Led to a Growing Vaccine Crisis - PMC

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

And no, I am not anti-vax. I got all my shots

Not to mention...

1976 swine flu outbreak - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Including distemper?

Ok, you got me, I had to google that; nope, don't have that one (unless you meant rabies)

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Jellyrolls Dueling Piano Bar Reopening Delayed Indefinitely at Disney World

Walt Disney World news, photos, and reviews! We provide you with daily news from the Walt Disney World theme parks and beyond

blogmickey.com

This makes me sad but very understandable. Can’t really sing out loud with a mask on. Or enjoy the adult beverages. My favorite place on property and hope it’s open by the beginning of the year.

 

[sbunit]

Where's the best place to live? Oh wait. That's off topic.

Anyhoo... reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)​

​

Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: no estimate given​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

​

Warp Speed: $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine A” – health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Regulatory review in Oct.​

AstraZeneca/Oxford

Type: altered chimp adenovirus​

​

Warp Speed: $1.2B​

​

Phase 3: in progress, recently started​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

​

Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

​

Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, it should be 50% more protected.​

​

If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

​

An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

​

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made.​

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely.

It's also possible they can pass emergency usage if the phase 3 trials are going off the charts well. Of course that would mean vaccines only accessible to essential front line workers and not the general public. But it seems fairly likely (I won't say certain) that there will be a vaccine starting to circulate in the population before 2021.

 

[MisterPenguin]

It's also possible they can pass emergency usage if the phase 3 trials are going off the charts well. Of course that would mean vaccines only accessible to essential front line workers and not the general public. But it seems fairly likely (I won't say certain) that there will be a vaccine starting to circulate in the population before 2021.

I've mentioned in my post the possibility of cutting short Phase 3 if the trial is going exceeding well. That's how we get an October vaccine (possible, but not likely).

I don't know of any other "emergency usage" shortcut. There is no "this is taking too long" route to getting the vaccine out past the recommendation of the regulatory board.

Whether a full or shortened Phase 3, the U.S. government is committed to put healthcare workers at the head of the line (along with other essential workers and nursing homes).