Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[BrianLo]

Ok. A serious conversation. 90% of the positives in the decimated in March/April states are not real positives. You don’t see that as a major issue?

Not really. It’s kind of strange you guys can’t see how big of a deal this is.

This is not what the article is suggesting and not how PCR's work. These are not false positives, they have/had COVID.

They may no longer be contagious at the time of testing, but they are "real positives".

I need to be an agent of the media, apparently. I explained a bit the very issue with PCR's on asymptomatic individuals in February. Back in the day when I felt a heck of lot more confident the Western World knew how to manage Pandemics, unfortunately.

It’s also worth pointing out that it is not considered best practice (or choosing wisely) typically to swab and PCR everyone with viral or flu symptoms.

So whether we talk about under reporting or hospitalization rates, the data will be skewed. There are many, many people (maybe even the majority) that had no idea what strain of influenza or virus they just contracted last week. They likely just stay home or freely continued to shed it publically. Naturally the population is jumpy and likely the testing and hospitalization rates right now will be skewed. China is not reporting accurate numbers, not because they have something to hide, but because this is not how Western Nations would typically test with such frequency and fear.

The second reported case is interesting in that there isn’t enough to interpret its meaning. Many people have ongoing viral shedding, or PCR results, well after the fact. That maybe aren’t correlated to the current viral symptoms they have from something new. It’s an ultra sensitive test. Many (most) cold viruses can be contracted multiple time with usually lesser symptoms. The details are not particularly unusual - but “if it didn’t kill you the first time it’ll get you the second time” is a more exciting news byte.

Viral shedding is not correlated to infectivity. If it’s coated in IgM. But the test doesn’t work that way.

What has changed though is the understanding that there is more asymptomatic spreading events and the importance of contact tracing overcoming choosing wisely.

 

[Jrb1979]

Depends on your lifestyle.

You can still be social with people 6 ft apart. Either way things would be so much better if people would just accept social distancing and wearing a mask when needed. Too many are hung up on things that happened months ago.

 

[hopemax]

Not sure what to make of this. That’s a really high percentage.

It's also a little playing "fun with math." State labs are running at 37 or 40 cycles, the CDC recommendation is 33, and so they played math with what would happen if the results were 30 cycles or 35 cycles. For New York, at 35 cycles it dropped positive results by 50%, if it was 30 cycles it was 70% drop. Then they compared to Massachusetts, but only mentioned the one bound of 30 cycles which is where they got 85-90%, not the other bound at 35%. The article had that one line also mentioning Nevada, but no further mention of what the Nevada results even are. Then this turned into, "up to 90%" which is technically accurate, but not really descriptive of what happened, which turned into the interpretation of "90% of cases aren't real!!!!!"

The overall point remains: we aren't in the "Goldilocks" zone for testing. We're not getting the "just right - quarantine/contact tracing is useful" cases, but the ones that are positive too early or too late.

 

[Andrew C]

It more depends on your definition of hard.

People get what, 80 years on this planet. Maybe less. Maybe more. But they feel like they just lost 1 of that 80. And maybe it was one of their prime years. Our time is short here. So I’m not keen on telling people to just deal with it and move on with life. Because for some. For many, they can’t move on. Everyone lives with different circumstances in their lives. We are unaware of those circumstances. So while they may want to do their part to mitigate risk for themselves and others, it doesn’t mean they don’t deal with hardships. It doesn’t mean that they don’t feel like they have thrown a year of their life down the toilet. This isn’t a stance on policy. Just something to think about as we talk to one another here and out there. That’s all.

 

[Andrew C]

You can still be social with people 6 ft apart. Either way things would be so much better if people would just accept social distancing and wearing a mask when needed. Too many are hung up on things that happened months ago.

Cases are dropping. Positivity rates are dropping. Hospitalizations are dropping. People are trying.

 

[Chi84]

People get what, 80 years on this planet. Maybe less. Maybe more. But they feel like they just lost 1 of that 80. And maybe it was one of their prime years. Our time is short here. So I’m not keen on telling people to just deal with it and move on with life. Because for some. For many, they can’t move on. Everyone lives with different circumstances in their lives. We are unaware of those circumstances. So while they may want to do their part to mitigate risk for themselves and others, it doesn’t mean they don’t deal with hardships. It doesn’t mean that they don’t feel like they have thrown a year of their life down the toilet. This isn’t a stance on policy. Just something to think about as we talk to one another here and out there. That’s all.

The more I read here, the more convinced I become that people do not have the capacity to think outside their own circumstances and experiences. Either that or they just don't care.

 

[JoeCamel]

Cases are dropping. Positivity rates are dropping. Hospitalizations are dropping. People are trying.

I can only hope people don't get complacent with those stats, we are not back to June levels in Fl yet.

 

[GoofGoof]

People get what, 80 years on this planet. Maybe less. Maybe more. But they feel like they just lost 1 of that 80. And maybe it was one of their prime years. Our time is short here. So I’m not keen on telling people to just deal with it and move on with life. Because for some. For many, they can’t move on. Everyone lives with different circumstances in their lives. We are unaware of those circumstances. So while they may want to do their part to mitigate risk for themselves and others, it doesn’t mean they don’t deal with hardships. It doesn’t mean that they don’t feel like they have thrown a year of their life down the toilet. This isn’t a stance on policy. Just something to think about as we talk to one another here and out there. That’s all.

I don’t disagree with any of that. Everyone deals with adversity different too. I’ve seen people get through things pretty quickly that I know would have leveled me and I’ve seen others melt down over things most peoole would consider trivial. That‘s why I don‘t think we can say it’s not hard to deal with being socially distant. For many people it’s not a huge deal. They have adapted and have figured out how to continue living a happy and meaningful life. For some others they can’t. It’s not a knock against them. People deal with adversity differently.

Although lifestyle does factor in too I think no matter how social you were pre-Covid there are some people not coping well with distancing and some who are doing just fine.

 

[Touchdown]

We are now also one week away from a holiday weekend, 2 months from the flu season, only 4 months away from the holiday season and school just started. If our numbers continue to decrease through September I’m going to start getting optimistic.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

This is why we can’t let our guard down. I know this was London but we have had smaller ones already here. The amount of misinformation still out there, after 6-7 months is astounding. More then 10,000 people.

Thousands of anti-maskers who believe pandemic is HOAX march in London

Jeremy Corbyn's older brother Piers was filmed being taken away from Trafalgar Square by a gaggle of mask-wearing police officers who hauled him into a van.

www.google.com

 

[MisterPenguin]

Or....

This calls into question those deaths....

You're doing it again. You keep denying the accuracy of all the data which would require the entire medical establishments of all the countries, states, and counties of the entire world to be in this conspiracy to put out false data.

And when we get to the point where we say, "Well, look at the corpses. They're real. They've been counted." You then question even that.

If anything, the number of COVID cases has been *undercounted." Not overcounted. Besides the link @Touchdown posted, here's what the NYT has been tracking...

So, what's your source that the number of dead human beings from COVID is significantly off?

 

[SamusAranX]

We don't ever reach it. just an FYI, normal isn't likely to come back anytime soon. I have learned to accept that and get used to life the way it is now. Here where I live the restrictions we have in place including no theme parks is where we stay til a vaccine or better treatments come along. Why people are still going on with things that happened in the past is mindboggling. Just accept it and move on with life. Its really not hard to live with being socially distant and wearing a mask. Kids can go to school with wearing masks.

Sorry, but being “socially distant” is the not the easiest thing. We are social creatures. Even some of my most introverted friends are growing weary

 

[Polkadotdress]

College is now 2ish weeks into their fall semester, and Univ of Alabama is reporting 1000+ cases in the 2 weeks it's been in session. That's 1000+ cases out of a student body of 38K.

Clearly, we are not doing a good job, and just going about our "normal lives".

Over 1,000 students have tested positive for Covid-19 at University of Alabama since classes resumed | CNN

More than 1,000 students at the University of Alabama have tested positive for Covid-19 since classes resumed on the Tuscaloosa campus less than two weeks ago, according to the University of Alabama System.

www.cnn.com

 

[GoofGoof]

College is now 2ish weeks into their fall semester, and Univ of Alabama is reporting 1000+ cases in the 2 weeks it's been in session. That's 1000+ cases out of a student body of 38K.

Clearly, we are not doing a good job, and just going about our "normal lives".

Over 1,000 students have tested positive for Covid-19 at University of Alabama since classes resumed | CNN

More than 1,000 students at the University of Alabama have tested positive for Covid-19 since classes resumed on the Tuscaloosa campus less than two weeks ago, according to the University of Alabama System.

www.cnn.com

If we use the “new math” where 90% of positive tests are fake that’s only 100 cases. Pretty good

 

[Jrb1979]

Sorry, but being “socially distant” is the not the easiest thing. We are social creatures. Even some of my most introverted friends are growing weary

Outside of being able to touch others and hug others you can still easily have conversations with others being 6 ft apart.

 

[GoofGoof]

Sorry, but being “socially distant” is the not the easiest thing. We are social creatures. Even some of my most introverted friends are growing weary

I don’t think this pandemic is easy on anyone and I don’t know anyone who isn’t getting tired of it. However, you can still see and interact with people safely. It’s just not the same as traditional gatherings. I’ve seen family and friends and my kids have spent time with friends too. You just have to plan ahead a lot more. Spontaneity is mostly dead. That’s one of the hardest parts for me.

 

[Disney Analyst]

You're doing it again. You keep denying the accuracy of all the data which would require the entire medical establishments of all the countries, states, and counties of the entire world to be in this conspiracy to put out false data.

And when we get to the point where we say, "Well, look at the corpses. They're real. They've been counted." You then question even that.

If anything, the number of COVID cases has been *undercounted." Not overcounted. Besides the link @Touchdown posted, here's what the NYT has been tracking...

View attachment 493771

So, what's your source that the number of dead human beings from COVID is significantly off?

He’s literally barmy.

Don’t trust the US data? Okay. Countless other health organizations to look at. All the same results.

The entire world isn’t in some conspiracy. We are dealing with a freaking contagious virus. That person twisting an article to suit their barmy narrative is worth not even engaging.

 

[SamusAranX]

Outside of being able to touch others and hug others you can still easily have conversations with others being 6 ft apart.

indeed, but in tiny groups; activities of what you can or should do is limited. And I have to avoid many people who have risk factors or are older (my parents)

I’m not sayin it couldn’t be worse, but it’s by no means easy.

 

[danlb_2000]

I can only hope people don't get complacent with those stats, we are not back to June levels in Fl yet.

They will, and we will.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

The entire world isn’t in some conspiracy.

An alarming number of people believe it is, and not just with COVID.

And they're starting to vote and run for office. Scary stuff.