Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[durangojim]

Its not the impact on physicians people are worried about. Its the impact on people not thinking they need to go get tested or go to the Doctor because that's what theyre being told by the CDC.

Yes, but in many cases it's up to the doc to order the test or the patient may ask the doc's opinion.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I think someone realized that when you change your testing strategy to only test those with symptoms, then your positivity rate will shoot up.

And if positivity goes up, then you have to backtrack your phased openings and will continue to be on other states and countries no-travel list.

its V. concerning that leaders in the cdc can't seem to do basic math right off the bat.

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[GoofGoof]

Here in south Florida i have def seen first hand a decline in people getting tested.

Everyday I drive buy one of the biggest testing sites in South Florida and the last 3 or 4 days I have seen no more than 20 cars in line

I think with CDC new guidelines and the fact that the numbers are going down, we will see less and less testing.

A point was made here on the news that if people dont feel nervous anymore they wont go and get tested.

During the peak last month I saw massive lines when I drove by the testing site. Now nothing.

This is the biggest problem. People hear what they want to hear. The genie is out of the bottle and you can’t always put it back. This change in guidelines was celebrated in some circles as a big deal so this unclear retraction won’t change people’s opinions now. At a time when the major surge in summer cases is dying down and we are trying to get schools open and more of the economy open the last thing we needed was a pull back on testing. If anything a greater focus on testing and tracing could make it possible for more people to move around.

 

[Andrew C]

I think that was easy to tell when they made the decision when Fauci wasn't present.

He reviewed it ahead of time and had no issues. Now he has a concern about misinterpretation? Kinda funny.

 

[GoofGoof]

He reviewed it ahead of time and had no issues. Now he has a concern about misinterpretation? Kinda funny.

An unnamed spokesperson claims that he reviewed a version of the guidelines and didn’t have an issue with it. That‘s believed unilaterally as true, but an unnamed source that claims there was a push from inside the administration to make this change happen is fake news. Nice double standard there.

 

[Andrew C]

An unnamed spokesperson claims that he reviewed a version of the guidelines and didn’t have an issue with it. That‘s believed unilaterally as true, but an unnamed source that claims there was a push from inside the administration to make this change happen is fake news. Nice double standard there.

Huh? It was a spokesperson from the institute he leads.

 

[easyrowrdw]

I guess it depends where you are. Our health board said we're only testing about a third of our capacity on a daily basis. In Texas I think they said demand was dropping like crazy, which was resulting in lower numbers. Many people just aren't bothering to get tested.

For what it's worth, @Jrb1979, our numbers are going down. Our peak was over 2,000 in a day, though the steady high was about 1,500. We're now at 150 average for last 10 days. More is known about the virus, how to protect yourself, and what to do if you do think you have it. So I understand why fewer people are choosing to get tested.

 

[Andrew C]

For what it's worth, @Jrb1979, our numbers are going down. Our peak was over 2,000 in a day, though the steady high was about 1,500. We're now at 150 average for last 10 days. More is known about the virus, how to protect yourself, and what to do if you do think you have it. So I understand why fewer people are choosing to get tested.

Hospitalizations are also continuing to decline in the state. Really important trend. Still lots of improvement needed though of course.

 

[Jrb1979]

Hospitalizations are also continuing to decline in the state. Really important trend. Still lots of improvement needed though of course.

Agreed. Here they have said all along that masks and social distancing will be here til a vaccine or better treatment comes along. We are in our last stage til that happens. No theme parks, no sporting events with fans and no festivals til that happens.

 

[mmascari]

Some additional details in here. It’s not meant to change your mind. And I know it won’t. Just providing some quotes. Feel free to read through. I really don’t have a firm position on the matter.

Brett Giroir: Changes to guidance were not directed by Trump

A Trump administration official said Wednesday that controversial changes to coronavirus testing guidelines were determined by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the White House task force and not commanded by political figures.

www.washingtontimes.com

The quote in the article doesn't explain anything. (Not your fault, it's what was presented, it was just bad by itself.)

“There was no weight on the scales by the president or the vice president,” Admiral Brett Giroir, the U.S. coronavirus testing “czar,” told reporters.Previous CDC guidance said people who thought they were exposed to the virus but didn’t show symptoms should get tested, as public health officials try to root out hidden infections and break up chains of transmission.

That changed this week.

For asymptomatic people who have been within six feet of an infected person for 15 minutes or more, the guidelines now say: “You do not necessarily need a test unless you are a vulnerable individual or your health care provider or state or local public health officials recommend you take one.”

Two things jump out at me from this. First the quote at the end, it's qualified with "necessarily, some, and whatever state and local say". Which is a way of saying they don't stand behind it at all and are just passing the buck to someone else. Second, the old guideline was to "try to root out hidden infections and break up chains of transmission". Which presumably means the new guideline is not longer trying to achieve this. Which means we're still on slow the spread and nowhere near contain it. What a poor policy to not try and contain the spread.

We still don’t have enough testing, like it or not.

Can we go "not". How are we this many months into it and still don't have enough testing? Testing that's fast enough to be useful. The more time that goes by, the more testing we'll need to get anywhere near containment as the problem will be larger.

I guess it depends where you are. Our health board said we're only testing about a third of our capacity on a daily basis. In Texas I think they said demand was dropping like crazy, which was resulting in lower numbers. Many people just aren't bothering to get tested.

Here in south Florida i have def seen first hand a decline in people getting tested.

What's the turn around in testing results? And, can anyone show up at those sites or do they need an appointment/referral of some type? When it takes a long time from need discovered to result, people don't bother because they still need to quarantine for the same period since the result is so slow.

Combine that with a lack of contact tracing (say, we're not testing enough, so there isn't tracing, which isn't leading to people who need a test), and that would push demand down too.

In both cases, it's not a good sign that demand is down, it's just a reflection of a broken system.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Fauci told Sanjay Gupta he was under the knife when this was approved. I'm going to believe Fauci over the "CDC spokesperson"

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Also if Fauci actually approved of this guideline, he would not be saying things like "I'm very concerned over this new guideline"

 

[Andrew C]

Fauci told Sanjay Gupta he was under the knife when this was approved. I'm going to believe Fauci over the "CDC spokesperson"

This is what Fauci said. You’re correct. He said he was under the knife when it was approved. But the spokesperson for his institute (not the CDC) said he reviewed the change ahead of time prior to official approval. Both can be true. And I imagine they are. I see no reason to think a spokesperson would lie about what his boss did when it makes his boss not look 100% great. I guess he could have been misquoted? That happens from time to time. Today, it seems there has been a “clarification” on the guidelines. So here we are.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Hospitalizations are also continuing to decline in the state. Really important trend. Still lots of improvement needed though of course.

Same for us. Our peak was over 1,200 and now we're under 450. The only area still not "in the green" is positivty rate. But, again, not nearly as many people are getting tested. Hopefully Labor Day doesn't foul things up.

 

[Touchdown]

Mmscari I just want to say I read your question and would love to answer it but it is against the boards rules to discuss politics. Sorry that a nonanswer is the only one I can give, but I didn’t want to think I ignored you.

 

[mmascari]

Agreed. Here they have said all along that masks and social distancing will be here til a vaccine or better treatment comes along. We are in our last stage til that happens. No theme parks, no sporting events with fans and no festivals til that happens.

That's a policy choice, not the only solution.

We've chosen a policy of "slow" instead of "containment". It's completely possible to implement a solution of containment without a vaccine and then open all those things back up once it's contained.

 

[hopemax]

its V. concerning that leaders in the cdc can't seem to do basic math right off the bat.

They can. That’s why I included the “smart people at the CDC” mentioned in my post from 2 days ago about this. Of course they know positivitiy will go up with fewer tests. But there is other “math” going on by the leaders of the CDC. Ie “How do I keep my job? If I don’t keep my job, will my replacement be worse?” The White House Task Force is what is being quoted in that CNN article as “in conjunction” with this. Members of the Task Force may not have understood the correlation between testing and positivity. And thought they could just barrel this change through with everything else going on and people being tired of the virus. Thankfully the pushback is strong enough for the implications not to go unnoticed.

 

[easyrowrdw]

What's the turn around in testing results? And, can anyone show up at those sites or do they need an appointment/referral of some type? When it takes a long time from need discovered to result, people don't bother because they still need to quarantine for the same period since the result is so slow.

They do two tests here. One is very accurate, but it can take a few days. If you're in the hospital you'll get results in hours, though. One is not as accurate, but it takes about 15 minutes. Generally with the rapid test, they'll send it out for the "better" test to confirm. There's a Covid hotline you can call to make an appointment. But there are drive-up sites too. You don't need a referral.

 

[Andrew C]

But there are drive-up sites too

That is what DW did when she was tested. Made a same day appointment for it but no referral needed.