Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

I would say that there's a little good news for Florida... and then I see the trend on positivity...

 

[Andrew C]

how convenient

?? You giving them a hard time about doing something positive?

 

[Jwink]

I wonder if the drop in testing is the start of seeing some of the testing centers being shut down starting yesterday? It seemed like the lag was longer than a day, but some people were still getting results back a day later. Percent positive below 10% for the first time in a month. That’s something.

Oh yeah I had forgotten that that the centers were closing.. I’m guessing we will see what the trend is actually doing next week

 

[Andrew C]

View attachment 488575

I would say that there's a little good news for Florida... and then I see the trend on positivity...

View attachment 488576

Between you and @DCBaker i am never behind on Florida!

 

[Kevin_W]

Victoria declares 'state of disaster,' locking down millions in Melbourne to fight a soaring coronavirus outbreak | CNN

The premier of Victoria plunged the region into a "state of disaster" on Sunday, announcing even stricter lockdown measures, introducing a nightly curfew and banning virtually all trips outdoors.

www.cnn.com

Further proof that this thing unfortunately won't just go away. Look at all the various models we were talking about in March/April and look at the shape of the curves in places like Australia, or even Montana. they are the reason no one talks about models any more because nothing predicted anything remotely like what we're seeing.

Heck , even Hawaii has surged to ~4x the number of cases they had at the beginning of June. And this is in spite of still partial lockdowns and almost no travel into the state.

 

[MattFrees71]

While it's turning out to be less than expected- I'm sure a few out of town-ers still cancelled due to the threat with Isaias. I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion on the tropical threats on this forum. With this hurricane season to get much more active yet- a solid hurricane hit or multiple hits/threats that keep people away or shut down the parks on top of COVID would be disastrous on top of the situation they are already in.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Further proof that this thing unfortunately won't just go away. Look at all the various models we were talking about in March/April and look at the shape of the curves in places like Australia, or even Montana. they are the reason no one talks about models any more because nothing predicted anything remotely like what we're seeing.

Heck , even Hawaii has surged to ~4x the number of cases they had at the beginning of June. And this is in spite of still partial lockdowns and almost no travel into the state.

Florida and some others are laughing at them sadly.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Further proof that this thing unfortunately won't just go away. Look at all the various models we were talking about in March/April and look at the shape of the curves in places like Australia, or even Montana. they are the reason no one talks about models any more because nothing predicted anything remotely like what we're seeing.

Heck , even Hawaii has surged to ~4x the number of cases they had at the beginning of June. And this is in spite of still partial lockdowns and almost no travel into the state.

this virus is completely uncharted waters. I mean no one even expected the summer spike to spike the way it did. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few months. Especially since the fall is when it was predicted to be more violent.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

?? You giving them a hard time about doing something positive?

I'm tired and didn't read the whole thing. Its good theyre updating the software, but there has to be another way to also keep track of cases.

 

[GoofGoof]

this virus is completely uncharted waters. I mean no one even expected the summer spike to spike the way it did. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few months. Especially since the fall is when it was predicted to be more violent.

Maybe since the summer was supposed to be a down time for the virus and it did the opposite, the fall which is supposed to be the start of the second wave will also be the opposite and end up being a down time. Part of the reason the fall was expected to be bad was schools going back and a lot more interaction of people. That’s not happening a lot of places. Here’s to hoping.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Maybe since the summer was supposed to be a down time for the virus and it did the opposite, the fall which is supposed to be the start of the second wave will also be the opposite and end up being a down time. Part of the reason the fall was expected to be bad was schools going back and a lot more interaction of people. That’s not happening a lot of places. Here’s to hoping.

Lets hope so.
I think we may see some negative impacts from the failed in person school science experiment. (not just grade school, colleges too)

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I think this doctor about sums it up.

 

[easyrowrdw]

I'm tired and didn't read the whole thing. Its good theyre updating the software, but there has to be another way to also keep track of cases.

It didn't say they weren't keeping track of them. It said they weren't releasing them. This happens where I live sometimes. They give folks a day off so you wind getting two days worth at the next release. It's not a big deal. It all averages out anyway.

 

[October82]

This isn’t hard data. Because you can’t have hard data. You would need to put Covid infected people in various public situations, and different mask usage, then measure how many get sick.

Mask usage in a close, hospital type environment has no bearing on situations of people walking past each other in a grocery store, or theme park.

Among them, 12 studies investigated HCWs, 8 studies investigated non-healthcare professional populations, and the remaining one study investigated HCWs and relatives of patients. Eleven studies were conducted in China (including 4 studies from Hong Kong, China), 6 in Western countries, and 4 in other Asian countries.

See also: Johnson et al., 2009 A quantitative assessment of the efficacy of surgical and N95 masks to filter influenza virus in patients with acute influenza infection for "hard data" on how masks prevent the spread of viral infections.

 

[hopemax]

this virus is completely uncharted waters. I mean no one even expected the summer spike to spike the way it did. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few months. Especially since the fall is when it was predicted to be more violent.

I feel this is disingenuous. Plenty of infectious disease specialists were warning against the idea that seasonality would make the virus disappear on its own this summer. What they failed to predict was how much behavior broke down, between the politicization of the virus and people getting bored. People ignored the caution warnings, though, because people continue to react to this as how they want things to be. People wanted this virus to be seasonal, so they ran full steam into summer as if it was. Same as the reaction to outside is safer, so people started being reckless with outdoor parties and celebrations. As long as the US keeps saying, "hold my beer," we are screwed.

Dr. Fauci on Apr 9th: https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-warm-weather-seasonal-update-fauci/6089537/

"Fauci told ABC's "Good Morning America" there's a precedent with other infections like influenza that "when the virus gets warmer that the virus goes down in its ability to replicate, to spread.

But Fauci added "having said that, one should not assume that we are going to be rescued by a change in the weather. You must assume that the virus will continue to do its thing. If we get some help from the weather, so be it, fine. But I don't think we need to assume that."

 

[Incomudro]

This isn’t hard data. Because you can’t have hard data. You would need to put Covid infected people in various public situations, and different mask usage, then measure how many get sick.

Mask usage in a close, hospital type environment has no bearing on situations of people walking past each other in a grocery store, or theme park.

I've been saying this since day one.
Everything that is designed for a purpose - from sunscreen to the oil in your car is designed to work under the parameters it was designed for.
Outside of those parameters these things may serve no protective function at all.
Disposable cloth masks are not intended to block viral particles in the first place, and they are not intended for long term outdoor use by the general public.

 

[Hawg G]

Dang...you beat me too it.
These anti-mask people are driving me insane.

If they work so well, why are rates still so high in a Florida, where you pretty much have to wear them in all close gathering Environments.

NYC should have had a MUCH higher death rate, since their outbreak was well before masks, in a very high density population.

Good thing we’ve decimated the economy.

 

[Miss Bella]

Ah ok.

I know you don’t like to be challenged, but people walking around in public with Covid is the reason you want mask mandates. You contradict yourself over and over again.

 

[October82]

I've been saying this since day one.
Everything that is designed for a purpose - from sunscreen to the oil in your car is designed to work under the parameters it was designed for.
Outside of those parameters these things may serve no protective function at all.
Disposable cloth masks are not intended to block viral particles in the first place, and they are not intended for long term outdoor use by the general public.

Our measurements indicate that 2 or 3 layers of highly permeable fabric, such as T-shirt cloth, may block droplets with an efficacy similar to that of medical masks, while still maintaining comparable breathability. Overall, our study suggests that cloth face coverings, especially with multiple layers, may help reduce droplet transmission of respiratory infections. Furthermore, face coverings made from biodegradable fabrics such as cotton allow washing and reusing, and can help reduce the adverse environmental effects of widespread use of commercial disposable and non-biodegradable facemasks.

Performance of Fabrics for Home-Made Masks Against the Spread of Respiratory Infections Through Droplets: A Quantitative Mechanistic Study

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I feel this is disingenuous. Plenty of infectious disease specialists were warning against the idea that seasonality would make the virus disappear on its own this summer. What they failed to predict was how much behavior broke down, between the politicization of the virus and people getting bored. People ignored the caution warnings, though, because people continue to react to this as how they want things to be. People wanted this virus to be seasonal, so they ran full steam into summer as if it was. Same as the reaction to outside is safer, so people started being reckless with outdoor parties and celebrations. As long as the US keeps saying, "hold my beer," we are screwed.

Dr. Fauci on Apr 9th: https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-warm-weather-seasonal-update-fauci/6089537/

"Fauci told ABC's "Good Morning America" there's a precedent with other infections like influenza that "when the virus gets warmer that the virus goes down in its ability to replicate, to spread.

But Fauci added "having said that, one should not assume that we are going to be rescued by a change in the weather. You must assume that the virus will continue to do its thing. If we get some help from the weather, so be it, fine. But I don't think we need to assume that."

I agree with what you are saying regarding seasonality. But I dont mean they thought it would go down with seasonality, I meant they were saying it would die down a bit based on social patterns and the hopeful effects of early mitigation efforts. What they didn't expect was that states would rush through reopening in May and June---resulting in where we are today.