Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[xdan0920]

So your theory is that the virus has mutated to be less dangerous and the scientists either haven’t noticed or are hiding it? Look, in four weeks, if the outcome trends continue I’ll admit I’m wrong. I hope I am. But no one seems to offer any explanation as to why this surge will have different results then the surge a few months ago.

Well, deaths are indisputably down. They are ticking up in Texas and Arizona, but nowhere even remotely close to what happened in the northeast. Now, there’s two reasons for that. Luckily southern states didn’t murder their most vulnerable. So that brings the death rate way down. The other is, the virus isn’t nearly as deadly towards young and healthy as it was originally thought to be. So by protecting the vulnerable(old) deaths are dropping.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Ah, I was hoping someone would bring up the northeast. What a wonderful job lockdowns did.View attachment 482303




Or you could just look to all previous pandemic planning.

I mean... I don’t know what you think that chart shows.... that there was a horrible outbreak, the northeast locked down, and that controlled it? Because that demonstrates that lockdowns work.

 

[xdan0920]

I mean... I don’t know what you think that chart shows.... that there was a horrible outbreak, the northeast locked down, and that controlled it? Because that demonstrates that lockdowns work.

Only took 3 months? That’s your argument? 3 month lockdowns are good?

it shows that one area of the country did things right. And one didn’t

 

[Touchdown]

Only took 3 months? That’s your argument? 3 month lockdowns are good?

it shows that one area of the country did things right. And one didn’t

The northeast got hit with the virus first because it has the most contact with Europe, New York arguably shutdown a week late and that is why it’s spike was so bad (not to mention the nursing home meds up) but studies now suggest only 20% of NYC residents have been exposed to Covid, that is not nearly enough for a pandemic to wane naturally (herd immunity.). The lockdowns prevented that spike from being worse.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Only took 3 months? That’s your argument? 3 month lockdowns are good?

You’ve shifted your argument from “lockdowns don’t work” to “lockdowns take too long so it doesn’t matter that they work”?

Also, I’m curious as to your understanding of time. As everyone said, there is a lag between infection and outcome. We are seeing negative outcomes tick up because they are catching up to the explosion of cases.

From the start, we’ve known that covid is less dangerous to the young. That’s not new. What is new is what we are learning about the negative, possibly lifelong impact on young people who catch covid and survive.

I sincerely hope and believe negative outcomes will be lower going forward. We have developed better techniques and treatments and learned from mistakes made by the areas that suffered early.

As an aside, the constant subtext regarding the glorious exceptionalism of your little corner of the map as opposed to the decadent northeast is really ugly.

 

[xdan0920]

As an aside, the constant subtext regarding the glorious exceptionalism of your little corner of the map as opposed to the decadent northeast is really ugly.

I live in New Jersey.

Got a long day ahead of me, can’t argue with the cadre anymore.

 

[kong1802]

Only took 3 months? That’s your argument? 3 month lockdowns are good?

it shows that one area of the country did things right. And one didn’t

Show me on this graph where you can see that the lockdown didn't work.

Because to me, it show's indisputably that it did work.

 

[Kevin_W]

I probably don't agree with xdan much in this thread, but it looks like what Europe and the Northeast did to bring their numbers down was kill the vulnerable population early. In deaths per million people, the US is still behind France, Italy, Spain, the UK.

You could certainly look at some countries (Germany, Japan, Korea) and ask what they did better than us, but I don't think Europe as a whole is a shining example.

 

[Andrew C]

I probably don't agree with xdan much in this thread, but it looks like what Europe and the Northeast did to bring their numbers down was kill the vulnerable population early. In deaths per million people, the US is still behind France, Italy, Spain, the UK.

You could certainly look at some countries (Germany, Japan, Korea) and ask what they did better than us, but I don't think Europe as a whole is a shining example.

Yeah. I’m super glad they seem to now have cases under control. I truly hope it continues to hold and there is no major surge in the fall. But some of those death rates are outrageous.

note: this is not an excuse for how the US handled this all.

 

[Touchdown]

Is the Southeast doing vigorous contact tracing and quarantining those individuals? No they aren’t, a very good question to ask is why but that answer crosses into the political taboo so let’s just take that choice away.

What do we have to control the virus then? Social distancing and masking is all we have left. If your numbers are spiraling out of control you need to increase those measures. That is literally the only tool you have.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I probably don't agree with xdan much in this thread, but it looks like what Europe and the Northeast did to bring their numbers down was kill the vulnerable population early. In deaths per million people, the US is still behind France, Italy, Spain, the UK.

You could certainly look at some countries (Germany, Japan, Korea) and ask what they did better than us, but I don't think Europe as a whole is a shining example.

There is no evidence for this as far as I know. The vulnerable population of Europe and the Northeast is very very large and is mostly still there.

Italy and Spain got hit early, suffered horrendously, and have controlled the virus. That last bit is what we haven’t done.

 

[mickeymiss]

So your theory is that the virus has mutated to be less dangerous and the scientists either haven’t noticed or are hiding it? Look, in four weeks, if the outcome trends continue I’ll admit I’m wrong. I hope I am. But no one seems to offer any explanation as to why this surge will have different results then the surge a few months ago.

And extreme reactions are often out of place. But this is an extreme situation, a once in a lifetime situation. It’s not normal, and it’s the normal, both-sides-are-too-extreme take you offer that is out of place.

And if you go to dwell almost anywhere else, you’re not going to escape those “extremes,” you’re going to find one is accepted as reality.

This is it right here and I notice it everywhere discussions are being had. People jump to conclusions. Yes, we should wait to see where this trends. All of us You just admitted yourself that the outcome is trending okay right now. If the death rate falls flat in the presence of a case load rise, nobody can spin that as bad. Nobody wants to wait because they already know what they want to think about anything. I am prone to waiting for evidence before reacting. That is not "out of place" nor is it wrong to feel that the extremes are unhelpful. I think it's a serious virus but not to a panic level. I think there are things we can do to balance life and risk going forward. No shutdown neeeded. That's controversial, I guess. Proposing lockdowns again and proposing no caution at all are extremes that I don't subscribe to.

When death rates didn't spike in Florida, people said wait two weeks. Now it's wait four weeks.

I hope that the death rate is low. That's simply good news and offers comfort when it is sorely needed world wide. The morale is so bad and worries me right along with any virus.

 

[Casper Gutman]

This is it right here and I notice it everywhere discussions are being had. People jump to conclusions. Yes, we should wait to see where this trends. All of us You just admitted yourself that the outcome is trending okay right now. If the death rate falls flat in the presence of a case load rise, nobody can spin that as bad. Nobody wants to wait because they already know what they want to think about anything. I am prone to waiting for evidence before reacting. That is not "out of place" nor is it wrong to feel that the extremes are unhelpful. I think it's a serious virus but not to a panic level. I think there are things we can do to balance life and risk going forward. No shutdown neeeded. That's controversial, I guess. Proposing lockdowns again and proposing no caution at all are extremes that I don't subscribe to.

When death rates didn't spike in Florida, people said wait two weeks. Now it's wait four weeks.

I hope that the death rate is low. That's simply good news and offers comfort when it is sorely needed world wide. The morale is so bad and worries me right along with any virus.

We have evidence. We literally went through the exact same thing a few months ago. And Italy and Spain went through it before that. We have huge amounts of evidence from every corner of the globe about what happens when cases rise.

Negative outcomes are starting to rise, and their pattern matches the outbreak of cases with about a 19 day time shift. That is slightly longer then we saw previously because increased testing is catching cases earlier.

I hope negative outcomes become minuscule. But hope isn’t going to make it so. Accepting unpleasant reality and taking appropriate action (which may necessitate lockdowns) will.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Ah, I was hoping someone would bring up the northeast. What a wonderful job lockdowns did.View attachment 482303




Or you could just look to all previous pandemic planning.

That graph proves that the lockdown in NY worked. Yes, there's a big spike because NYC has 2 major international airports (and a 3rd nearby in Newark) and is one of the largest and most densely populated cities in the US. The virus was there before it was in Texas and Florida, and CA doesn't have anywhere near the population density of NYC in any of its cities. Yet somehow, the deaths in NY went down following the lockdown. So I'm not sure you understand the graph you posted.

 

[Touchdown]

1. First raw case numbers go up as more people get the virus
2. Then the amount of new cases overwhelm our ability to test and people who want a test can’t get it and % positive increases
3. Next some people progress in their disease and need to be hospitalized bringing those numbers up
4. Next a subset of admitted people get worse and need ICU care increasing numbers there
5. Finally some people start dying, and if along the way hospitals and/or ICUs get overwhelmed and care gets rationed even more people die including people who could have been saved if not for the lack of space/staff

The thing that has changed the most in this country since March is our ability to test and the public’s awareness they need to be tested when they get symptoms. I failed to account for this at first, but it was a mistake. I think we are diagnosising cases much sooner then we were in March and that, along with a younger population is why there has been such a lag. However Floridas on the ground reporting is now telling us #4 and 5 are happening there; barring some other unforeseen event (which I would welcome) the death rate which is starting to creep up is going to exponentially rise very soon.

 

[Disorbust]

1. First raw case numbers go up as more people get the virus
2. Then the amount of new cases overwhelm our ability to test and people who want a test can’t get it and % positive increases
3. Next some people progress in their disease and need to be hospitalized bringing those numbers up
4. Next a subset of admitted people get worse and need ICU care increasing numbers there
5. Finally some people start dying, and if along the way hospitals and/or ICUs get overwhelmed and care gets rationed even more people die including people who could have been saved if not for the lack of space/staff

The thing that has changed the most in this country since March is our ability to test and the public’s awareness they need to be tested when they get symptoms. I failed to account for this at first, but it was a mistake. I think we are diagnosising cases much sooner then we were in March and that, along with a younger population is why there has been such a lag. However Floridas on the ground reporting is now telling us #4 and 5 are happening there; barring some other unforeseen event (which I would welcome) the death rate which is starting to creep up is going to exponentially rise very soon.

Perfect explanation however two things have changed. The treatment now has much better outcomes and the average age is lower both I believe will "lower" the death rate.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Perfect explanation however two things have changed. The treatment now has much better outcomes and the average age is lower both I believe will "lower" the death rate.

A mean lower age will do nothing, though, if the absolute number of infections in the elderly remains high. If the death rate is lower, but the absolute number of deaths rises with the total number of cases, I don't necessarily see reason to celebrate or lower our guard.

 

[GoofGoof]

I probably don't agree with xdan much in this thread, but it looks like what Europe and the Northeast did to bring their numbers down was kill the vulnerable population early. In deaths per million people, the US is still behind France, Italy, Spain, the UK.

You could certainly look at some countries (Germany, Japan, Korea) and ask what they did better than us, but I don't think Europe as a whole is a shining example.

Agreed. It’s fairly obvious that nursing homes were the major driver for those early death tolls in the NE. I live in PA and of our 6,812 deaths 68% were in long term care facilities. The states that surged first did not react fast enough on locking down long term care facilities. A state like FL where the virus arrived later had time to see what was happening in the NE and react to it. FL still had 1,994 deaths from long term care facilities but thats less than half the 4,600+ PA has And FL has 50% more residence in nursing homes in total (basically more than 3X the deaths per person). Deaths outside of long term care facilities PA 2,180 vs FL 1,895. Pretty close but FL has more residents in total. Deaths per million outside LT care PA = 168, FL = 90. A lot closer than looking at all deaths.

What does this tell us? The good news is no other state should see a surge of deaths like the NE had in Mar/Apr because long term care facilities are locked down everywhere now. The better statistic to probably look at going forward is deaths and death rate outside of long term care facilities to get an apples to apples comparison. Not to discount those that died in long term care, but it’s not really relevant to say even if cases are surging in FL the deaths are so much less than NY or NJ or PA overall.

 

[lisa12000]

I’m sort of reluctant to jump in here as a European.

In my opinion flattening then curve means just that - you don’t reduce the amount of cases and deaths amongst the general population (and by this i don’t mean the most vulnerable elderly and sick) you just spread them so healthcare can cope - people will meet this virus as soon as things open up and the less that met it the first time (Florida) the more that people will get it as you open / New York won’t see this as much as they were hit hard and more people got it the first time so there isn’t as many people to get it the second time.

lockdowns for a second time won’t work for two reasons 1) most people can’t or won’t tolerate them 2) economies already crashing will just die on their feet for a long time and never recover

there is a reason why macron and the Italian leader (sorry can’t remember his name) have said that a second lockdown willnever happen again as society couldn’t cope with it! I’m afraid I find the hard lockdown of Melbourne for 6 weeks due to 100 odd cases a day pretty horrifying!

Unfortunately the only way you can stop spikes is trying for elimination and tbh there are very few places in the world that can manage that.The uk and the us are such global hubs that transmission is inevitable as the world opens - the key is who gets it,how the hospitals can cope, and are peoplegetting as sick. Like in the us the people in theuk getting it now are the more mobile young people who are back at bars, who protested, who naturally want to socialise - if our track and trace system works properly that’s okay as we can isolate them and their contacts

In fact the ons suggest around 2500 people are still being infected in the uk per day (mostly asymptomatic) and the more we find the better!


Finally, research has also shown that a lot of our community transmission through this has come from hospital acquired infections and poor care home management which has then seeded back into the community - something to think about

 

[oceanbreeze77]

9000 new cases.....HORRID positivity rate