Horizons78
Grade "A" Funny...
Regatta at Benderson Park?
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
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Regatta at Benderson Park?
Bob Harlem
Well-Known Member
Two cases per Florida Health Dept..
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
Well... that’s not great. My parents are in Ft Myers, was just there this morning. I can see this type of news actually causing people to start thinking about a WDW change of plans.
RobWDW1971
Well-Known Member
Perspective everyone - in the 2017-2018 flu season over 60,000 people died in the US with flu related deaths. Over 4,000 people died in just one week in Feb. 2018. Imagine if THAT was covered like this in the media. The virus will spread, you can't stop it, 80%+ of those infected will only get a mild case and won't be hospitalized, and 2% will die and most of those will be elderly and have pre-existing conditions.
Buy a churro and carry on.
Buy a churro and carry on.
Horizons78
Grade "A" Funny...
Governor DeSantis declares emergency:
https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/...quopresumptivelyrdquo-postive-for-coronavirus
https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/...quopresumptivelyrdquo-postive-for-coronavirus
thenerdbaker
Well-Known Member
The problem with this thinking is that if we have the flu and this every winter we then at least double the amount of people who die. That's not even taking into account that if it goes away in the summer that it won't mutate next season. What that mutation is and how it effects us won't be known because this is a new virus. Maybe we will get lucky and it won't be anything but still people need to be careful and aware. This is not the end of the world but it's also not the flu it is worse than that. People panicking is not going to help anything but being informed will. BTW I know 2% seems low but that is a lot of people like 6 million people. So perspective or whatever.
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
If Kathy Bates gets her own radio show during this, then it’s time to worry.
solidyne
Well-Known Member
2% would be 6 million only if everyone contracts it.
RobWDW1971
Well-Known Member
And the insanity continues.
HauntedMansionFLA
Well-Known Member
Yes. I know. I was providing a phone number for the person to call. They should do research and read what they signed up for. I’m sure there are clauses in the AP that covers Disney just like when Hurricanes come through the region.
thenerdbaker
Well-Known Member
This is true and I'm sure not everyone will get it but acting like it does not have that potential is also not wise. Like I said it's not the end of the world but it's also not nothing. I live in Washington State. I'm not that worried just will make sure to take precautions since who knows how long it's been in this state at this point.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Gonna blame Kathy Kennedy for this one?
I’ll kinda get to the crux of this again: the “craze” is rooted in the loss of production from China...which is under huge quarantine far worse than we in the west have access to.
This isn’t about people coughing and collapsing outside the Starbucks on Main Street...that’s just the distraction. This is about systemic economic disruption. And that it why every detail is being scrutinized and amplified. The power brokers are looking for a magic wand and it’s “trickling down”
Panic...that is. Ironically the only time trickle down ever worked.
RobWDW1971
Well-Known Member
Nobody said "it was the flu" we are using stats for something called "perspective". So far the CDC believes it is twice as contagious as Influenza and up to 10 times more deadly for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. But if a million people get it (very possible) and 20,000 people die, it will be horrible, but still be less than half of a normal flu season and about half that die annually in car crashes.
For example, in the 2017-2018 flu season 60,000 people died which was over 20,000 more than the previous year. I don't remember the 24/7 coverage and panic in the streets for the deaths of those extra 20,000 people.
Perspective.
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SplashJacket
Well-Known Member
Perspective everyone - The Flu has an R0 value of around 1.5 meaning that each infected individual will infect an average of 1.5 healthy people. COVID-19 has an estimated R0 value of 2.6-3, however, it could be as high as 5.
The Flu killed about 14 out of every 10,000 people infected. COVID-19 kills about 200 out of every 10,000 people infected.
The issue with COVID-19 is that the disease itself is that inherently bad, its that it spreads so rapidly and efficiently than it can very easily explode in a community if not urgently taken care of. Currently, hospitals in the U.S. have little available space. Should COVID-19 spread rapidly throughout the U.S. it would overwhelm the medical system so that people would not be getting adequate medical care.
Iran is a poster child of the potential of COVID-19. The country suffers from a dreadful medical system and overall medical incompetence, leading to an estimated 500 out of 10,000 people infected, or 5%. While that figure should never become that high in more developed countries, people who are turned away from full hospitals are going to have an insanely increased chance of death.
The main goal should be slowing down the spread of the virus in order for medical facilities to be able to deal with the patients. If the virus reaches pandemic status 30% of the world could be infected by the end of the year which would be a colossal problem. Slowing down the spread allows medical infrastructures to handle patients, as such measures must be taken to prevent spread. The COVID-19 vaccine should be distributed by early 2021, slowing down the spread allows a vaccine to cancel out most of the potential harm.
If quarantine is responsive and not preventative, it is still not enough. COVID-19 has asymptomatic spread, meaning individuals without symptoms can still get people sick.
It also has a usual incubation period of around a week, most quarantines are far less than that, why? Because governments do not like causing preventative disturbances, unless they absolutely must as they do not want to off their supporters.
Horizons78
Grade "A" Funny...
Nah man, you get some empathy.
The numbers are what they are, no doubt about it. But there’s plenty of people who aren’t hysterical who have friends and loved ones who fall into the elderly or ill category, and those people are increasingly worried - fairly I believe.
If you’d like to make a case that things really won’t be so bad that’s one thing, but right now it certainly comes off as placing anyone who is concerned under the category of an alarmist, and that’s just not accurate.
gmajew
Premium Member
it is going to get interesting what happens going forward. New case in Chicago today as well.
we can flow down the spread but cannot stop it.
people have got to keep living though or it will be deadly on other fronts.
cannot lock everything up and close everything. The economy cannot take it.
we can flow down the spread but cannot stop it.
people have got to keep living though or it will be deadly on other fronts.
cannot lock everything up and close everything. The economy cannot take it.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I agree
And people forget that like it or not...a bit of public craze keeps it fresh and may make simple precautions far more effective...potentially saving lives
RobWDW1971
Well-Known Member
Not sure how that contradicts anything I said - the estimates are that it is twice as contagious as the flu (1.3 for flu vs. 2.0-3.0 estimate) and has ten times the fatality rate (.2% vs. 2%). So it is more contagious and more deadly. Nobody disputes that. And 80%+ of all cases are mild and don't require hospitalization.
As you said, it can't be stopped, people will die, and we still have to keep the death total, even tens of thousands of them, into perspective. Again, where was all of this hand-wringing and "empathy for their love ones" during the 2017 flu season when 20,000 more people died than the year before? If the media wasn't going crazy about it, nobody else would either.
Nobody is suggesting people don't see doctors, wash their hands, or self-quarantine if they have it - of course they should.
And if you really want to panic, globally about 650,000 people die a year for flu related deaths. And?
Up to 650 000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year
Up to 650 000 deaths annually are associated with respiratory diseases from seasonal influenza, according to new estimates by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US-CDC), WHO and global health partners.
Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical Visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 Flu Season | CDC
Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC
www.cdc.gov
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Benjamin_Nicholas
Well-Known Member
I'm aware of the symptoms and would do so if I felt off. I don't feel off.
As someone who travels 350k+ miles a year on airlines, I am hyper-aware of my health.
A Noble Fish
Well-Known Member
It's inevitable, as it always has been, and will exponentially grow within our borders sooner than it should have due to incompetence at the government level not understanding the threat it posed. That's exactly right, we do need to slow the spread because if we don't it's going to be an operational disaster with hospitals filled to capacity and even more people dying because of that. We need to delay it as best as possible until a vaccine arrives next year, and there are still so many unknown variables. It spreads easier than the flu and can kill between 1-5% of people infected dependent on medical capacity.
The facts don't say to ignore the issue, and they also don't say the world is ending. It just needs to be handled logically, effectively, and to ensure it spreads slowly.
Any large events should be canceled starting in a few weeks if there are high concentrations of cases in specific areas. Non-essential industries like tourism (amusement parks), entertainment (cinemas, concerts) education (public schools) will need to be closed in regions where there are huge concentrations of the virus. Since you may not know you're infected, it will explode like wildfire if there are many cases in local areas and if children are required to go to school. The United States is a huge country and specific counties, states, and cities will need to make the call with recommendations from the CDC. An abundance of caution should be used, but not illogically. Only in high outbreak areas will there need to be telecommuting and effectively complete self-quarantine.
Prepare smartly, and if it somehow dissipates, consider us lucky, and prepared for the future. However, evidence points to a large non-catastrophic issue. It doesn't matter if flu numbers are higher now. COVID-19 has the potential to kill millions more people per year at its full potential which is extraordinarily more than the flu does now.
But seriously? Money over public health? The economy won't stop, but we should all as citizens, corporations, and government, make right calls over what we need in outbreak zones, morally, and logically. This all makes me wonder if we can even trust each other to do these things anymore.
It's also not alarmist to be prepared. Spend a hundred bucks on canned food you're already going to eat and have it just in case you need it for a couple of weeks, same with toilet paper, and prescription medicines. That's smart preparation as a citizen. What's crazy is people going into a doomsday mode that you see or people ignoring the issue.
Logic > Ideology.
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