Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Jabbas]

Two confirmed cases in Florida. CDC website is updated. Kinda getting nervous..the hospital this person is at is a half hour away from me.

 

[SplashJacket]

Nobody is suggesting people don't see doctors

You missed my point entirely. It was that ignoring the virus will allow it to spread quicker. Not closing borders allows it to spread quicker.

My point was that people need to go to doctors, its that the virus has proven to be capable of infecting extremely large bodies of people extraordinarily quickly. As a result, the large bodies of infected people will overwhelm medical facilities, forcing people to stay home or receive shotty treatment, leading to an increased death percentage. Not by a small figure, but a figure which is very concerning. I.e. Iran.

 

[RobWDW1971]

Hate to quote myself, but said earlier:

"Nobody is suggesting people don't see doctors, wash their hands, or self-quarantine if they have it - of course they should."

Oh, and if you're interested in the trend of open serious cases as of today:

 

[SplashJacket]

Hate to quote myself, but said earlier:

"Nobody is suggesting people don't see doctors, wash their hands, or self-quarantine if they have it - of course they should."

Oh, and if you're interested in the trend of open serious cases as of today:

View attachment 453179

The downward trend is because of the containment seen in China. Containment which is irreproducible elsewhere. Only an authoritarian regime can produce the results which they have. Chinese people are very disciplined and cooperative.

It has not had enough time to truly "blow up" in other countries in order to increase the number of serious and critical cases.

 

[RobWDW1971]

Stop politicizing the facts of the COVID-19. Actually read up on articles not from a biased writer.

Uh...I didn't know this data site that pulls factual data from the WHO and CDC is "political and biased" - I learn something every day. This is the "reality" I'm living in.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 137,483,333 Cases and 2,962,790 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[techgeek]

Fortune 500 companies do not shut down factories, restrict travel, close campuses and tell everyone to phone it in because of the flu.

Countries do not close boarders, set up unprecedented quarantines, and take extreme actions directly impacting their GDP because of the flu.

There isn’t a worldwide run on medical supplies, supply line shutdowns, and airlines canceling flights because of the flu.

Can we please drop the argument that ‘the flu ‘ is bigger & causes more deaths then this with every single new development? When we can compare an entire annual season of Covid-19 vs the flu then come back to me and show me the graphs. Right now, extrapolated numbers from the data we have are causing enough concern for these dramatic reactions. If you can’t personally look at those numbers and feel concern and dread, then please tell me where you got your numbers so I can feel better. Governments, health officials, and businesses are not making any of these decisions flippantly because of some whipped up click-bait news fear-mongering.

Standing the flu up as a straw-man argument does nothing but confuse and muddy the waters here. This. Is. Not. The. Flu.

 

[WDW862]

holy we need some mods in here to calm you guys down

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well this devolved quickly:..




Ease up, everyone. It can be an actual informative exchange of ideas here: Frankie says RELAX

And remember: part of this is because people won’t accept the idea of Disney parks closing. We need someone to cut through it and that’s me.

We are debating a first world “problem” scenario at its core. We hope this doesn’t get real...I hope??

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Fortune 500 companies do not shut down factories, restrict travel, close campuses and tell everyone to phone it in because of the flu.

Countries do not close boarders, set up unprecedented quarantines, and take extreme actions directly impacting their GDP because of the flu.

There isn’t a worldwide run on medical supplies, supply line shutdowns, and airlines canceling flights because of the flu.

Can we please drop the argument that ‘the flu ‘ is bigger & causes more deaths then this with every single new development? When we can compare an entire annual season of Covid-19 vs the flu then come back to me and show me the graphs. Right now, extrapolated numbers from the data we have are causing enough concern for these dramatic reactions. If you can’t personally look at those numbers and feel concern and dread, then please tell me where you got your numbers so I can feel better. Governments, health officials, and businesses are not making any of these decisions flippantly because of some whipped up click-bait news fear-mongering.

Standing the flu up as a straw-man argument does nothing but confuse and muddy the waters here. This. Is. Not. The. Flu.

You are completely correct here. The argument is getting out of control.

We need to cool down and bring some logic back in and see how this plays.

But here’s one thing that for sure: Bob Iger did a surprise halo jump last week and buried the lead because of this. I have no doubt.

That actually worries me the most. Do you think he heard from the money people it’s Jus gonna be “one bad week”??

Heeeeellllll no. So either the whole system is in trouble and it’s just getting started...or Disney is.

For all of us...I hope it’s the latter.

 

[A Noble Fish]

Two confirmed cases in Florida. CDC website is updated. Kinda getting nervous..the hospital this person is at is a half hour away from me.

No need to fear right now, just know that it will spread over the next weeks and be smart.

A weeks supply of healthy canned, frozen foods, and toiletries (sardines, vegetables, toilet paper, etc.) that you will use anyway--in case it does not reach its potential, and are therefore not wasteful--could be a smart idea.


Also, come April, public entertainment (Disney+ is your friend haha!) and certain habits would be wise to get out of especially if you're an at-risk population, but there's no reason to change anything just yet. There's no cause for panic at all right now or even when it gets bigger, but it's also ignorant to deny its dangers like some posters on here are.

You might want to treat it like a mini-hurricane if you will being from Florida. Prescription medication, and things you might need to scrape by for a few days. You never know if your neighbors will need help, but I would not plan to save the world. Just a few extras of the essentials would go a long way in a bad scenario. I feel for those that live paycheck to paycheck.

America is huge so it will not come to a halt. Food supplies should still be fine, but limiting unnecessary exposure is a good idea if your area gets many cases when the time comes.

This is what being smart is called. Not alarmist.

 

[TP2000]

Tokyo Disneyland announced it was closing its entire resort this past Friday once the 8th Japanese citizen had died of Coronavirus. Tokyo Disney Resort has stated its two parks, Disneyland and DisneySea, will remain closed through at least March 15th, and they will reevaluate whether to open at that time.

There are already two Americans who have died because of Coronavirus, so using the Japanese model, can we expect Walt Disney World to close later this week once another half dozen Americans die from Cornavirus related symptoms?

 

[A Noble Fish]

Tokyo Disneyland announced it was closing its entire resort this past Friday once the 8th Japanese citizen had died of Coronavirus. Tokyo Disney Resort has stated its two parks, Disneyland and DisneySea, will remain closed through at least March 15th, and they will reevaluate whether to open at that time.

There are already two Americans who have died because of Coronavirus, so using the Japanese model, can we expect Walt Disney World to close later this week once another half dozen Americans die from Cornavirus related symptoms?

Keep the rhetorical questions coming.

Japanese stadiums are empty, so it's not surprising that they ended up closing TDR before they needed to for the virus.

Japan sporting events at empty stadiums amid virus outbreak

TOKYO (AP) — Japanese sporting events were held without spectators on Saturday in a move aimed at halting the spread of the new coronavirus.

apnews.com

Again, to fact check, all evidence points that this could be as big as influenza, and kill 20x more people if it does alongside overcrowded hospitals and an illness we don't know will stop this summer. No evidence or model says it's not capable of doing so. Therefore, it can be logically concluded that (not but emotions) delaying COVID-19's spread is a wonderful idea.

Walt Disney World is an international tourist destination, but since it has spread almost everywhere across borders that it will, the main concern will be once the US has outbreaks in specific regions. Geography plays an important part since the United States is a huge country. I'd expect Disneyland to close first if the LA region gets hundreds of cases that would impact it more.

Rhetorical question aside... it will take more than 8 deaths, and it depends on the cases not the number of deaths for the closure of a place.

 

[TP2000]

Keep the rhetorical questions coming.

Happily. Because I find this so incredibly entertaining!

What's the number of American deaths due to Coronavirus that need to happen before WDW should close?

8 deaths like in Japan? 50 American deaths? 100 American deaths? 1,000 American deaths?

Remembering that an average of 35,000 Americans die each year due to symptoms related to the Flu, and WDW Custodial does not disinfect the handlebars or the seatbelt yellow tabs after each ride before the CM insists you pull down on the bar or tug on the yellow tab while those rides handle tens of thousands of tourists per day during annual Flu season, how many Americans need to die of Coronavirus related symptoms before they close Walt Disney World?

Just a ballpark figure, at your convenience.

 

[iMax]

Happily.

What's the number of American deaths due to Coronavirus that need to happen before WDW should close?

8 deaths like in Japan? 50 American deaths? 100 American deaths? 1,000 American deaths?

Remembering that an average of 35,000 Americans die each year due to symptoms related to the Flu, how many Americans need to die of Coronavirus related symptoms before they close Walt Disney World?

Just a ballpark figure, at your convenience.

The earth could get struck by a meteor and kill a whole country and WDW would still be open.

 

[A Noble Fish]

Happily. Because I find this so incredibly entertaining!

What's the number of American deaths due to Coronavirus that need to happen before WDW should close?

8 deaths like in Japan? 50 American deaths? 100 American deaths? 1,000 American deaths?

Remembering that an average of 35,000 Americans die each year due to symptoms related to the Flu, how many Americans need to die of Coronavirus related symptoms before they close Walt Disney World?

Just a ballpark figure, at your convenience.

We can say factually based on the evidence we have that this coronavirus could infect millions, but we cannot say how many deaths will cause a private company's main profit arm to close.

Factors such as low crowds due to public fears (like Japan was most likely anticipating), coronavirus cases at the resort itself, profit, genuine goodwill, and an outbreak in Orlando will all play a role. They will and should keep it open as long as possible, and there's no indication that they should close the swaps or Anaheim yet.

Japan has had a very tight response due to wanting to preserve the Olympics. Whether the extent they went will be worth it is yet to be seen.

It would probably take dozens of cases in the Orlando area for them to consider it. I would personally gauge the issue, but if it ramps up and a hundred people get it in Orlando, (which statistically could mean 1,2, or 3 deaths), that's the number you're looking for most likely.

However, without the facts that would be presented internally regarding profit, PR, and unknowns when it becomes an issue for WDW, it would be misleading for anyone outside of the executives at Disney to give an accurate, or even figurative number.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Tokyo Disneyland announced it was closing its entire resort this past Friday once the 8th Japanese citizen had died of Coronavirus. Tokyo Disney Resort has stated its two parks, Disneyland and DisneySea, will remain closed through at least March 15th, and they will reevaluate whether to open at that time.

There are already two Americans who have died because of Coronavirus, so using the Japanese model, can we expect Walt Disney World to close later this week once another half dozen Americans die from Cornavirus related symptoms?

Remember that Tokyo Disneyland is run by OLC...all ops decisions are theirs.

And frankly the Japanese would be more cautious with this than China or the Americans.

The also had a tremendous episode with Fukushima not too long ago...which was a nuclear meltdown near not only their largest populated area...but their disneyland as well:

Caution is warranted.


The next thing will be if it spreads in Europe...If it does euro likely closes

 

[TP2000]

We can say factually based on the evidence we have that this coronavirus could infect millions, but we cannot say how many deaths will cause a private company's main profit arm to close.

Factors such as low crowds due to public fears (like Japan was most likely anticipating), coronavirus cases at the resort itself, profit, genuine goodwill, and an outbreak in Orlando will all play a role. They will and should keep it open as long as possible, and there's no indication that they should close the swaps or Anaheim yet.

It would probably take dozens of cases in the Orlando area for them to consider it. I would personally gauge the issue, but if it ramps up and a hundred people get it in Orlando, (which statistically could mean 1,2, or 3 deaths), that's the number you're looking for most likely.

However, without the facts that would be presented internally regarding profit, PR, and unknowns when it becomes an issue for WDW, it would be misleading for anyone outside of the executives at Disney to give an accurate, or even figurative number.

Thank you, although I have no idea why the cases in the Orlando area would make any difference. The WDW customer base is coming from around the country and world. Those are the people touching the handlebars on rides and touching countertops and seats and doorknobs at restaurants, shops, hotel rooms, monorails, buses, etc.

They closed Tokyo Disneyland after 8 deaths reported in Japan last week. In a country of 125 Million people. Just doing some simple math, that would mean once America gets to its 20th death due to Coronavirus, I would imagine we'd need to shut down Disneyland and WDW immediately and indefinitely. Because that's how this works, mathematically.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Thank you, although I have no idea why the cases in the Orlando area would make any difference. The WDW customer base is coming from around the country and world. Those are the people touching the handlebars on rides and touching countertops and seats and doorknobs at restaurants, shops, hotel rooms, etc.

They closed Tokyo Disneyland after 8 deaths reported in Japan last week. In a country of 125 Million people. Just doing some simple math, that would mean once America gets to its 20th death due to Coronavirus, I would imagine we'd need to shut down Disneyland and WDW immediately and indefinitely. Because that's how this works, mathematically.

It would take ALOT more to shut down a domestic park.

Remember: the White House was on the phone with Eisner like 28 hours after after 9/11 to make sure they reopened.

It was about calming the public and the markets. Like it or not: Disney parks are a blessing and a curse. It’s a prime germinating ground for a “bad incident” of notoriety...but it’s also what business and the public looks too for reassurance.

I bet Disney brass is incredibly upset the Chinese parks closed - don’t to mention the factories. I bet they plead with the Japanese to not follow suit as well.

 

[TrojanUSC]

It should also be noted that the Prime Minister of Japan has taken a much more aggressive stance than many believe he should have taken, at this stage, due to the upcoming Olympics and other political reasons. Good read on the Japan situation for those interested:

Japan Shocks Parents by Moving to Close All Schools Over Coronavirus (Published 2020)

The country, unlike others, has not experienced a sharp increase in reported cases, but it is under pressure to act decisively to preserve the Tokyo Olympics.

www.nytimes.com

 

[A Noble Fish]

What we do and don't know:

• What we do know is that as @SplashZander said, "The Flu has an R0 value of around 1.5 meaning that each infected individual will infect an average of 1.5 healthy people. COVID-19 has an estimated R0 value of 2.6-3, however, it could be as high as 5."
• We know that it kills around 1% (10x the flu) of people with good conditions and up to 5% in overcrowding conditions for COVID-19.
• We do know that without being prepared in the event of an outbreak in a region, there will be hospital bed shortages (not a problem with the flu)
• We do know that it is a coronavirus and not related to influenza whatsoever.
• We do know that it is in the middle of coronaviruses in lethality which is why it spreads fast like yearly coronaviruses, and not as deadly as SARS.
• We do know that it has almost no effect on children but will spread it easier undetected.
• We do know that 15% of people who get it have serious side-effects.
• We do know that at-risk populations including the elderly and poor immune systems are who we have to seriously worry about.
• We do know that containing it in a logical manner prevents its rapid spread, preventing overcrowding, unnecessary deaths, and buying us more time.
• We do know that unprecedented government quarantines cutting GDP growth have happened.
• We do know that enormous corporations view the coronavirus itself as important as the cut in profit by closing up shop.
• We do know that it can spread without symptoms.
• We do know it has spread without international travel, which means it will only exponentially grow domestically.
• We do know that China's response came way too late to completely stop it.
• We do know that the United States' response has been very slow to materialize, and people are now making it a partisan issue.
• We do know that Wuhan's lockdown has worked to slow it down over the short term. Many workers live outside of Wuhan are not working together in Wuhan at the moment, preventing its spread.
• We do know that the virus affects supply chains primarily from quarantines, but also from the virus impact itself (amplified as it gets larger).
• We do know that stock markets both can be overly optimistic and overly dramatic; however...
• We do know that at a corporate level, it is thought of as a big deal.
• We do know that it is not a plague that will wipe out half the world.
• We do know that there have been countries like Japan and South Korea where they have taken it seriously and there are countries like Iran where they have not.
• We do know that each country will have its share of unique obstacles: The United States will deal with uninsured not getting treatment, though this can be partly mitigated through policy right now. The United States also is a very spread out country unlike China and Japan's populations, but very integrated supply chains compared to them, so we will also discover how that affects COVID-19's spread.
• We do know that a vaccine is likely due by next year.
• We do know that oil prices will remain low while demand is lower.
• We do know that being prepared in a smart way by stocking up on prescription medicine, toilet paper, and a few days worth of canned food that you will eventually eat anyway over the next few weeks (in the event of a future quarantine/lockdown), cannot hurt.
• We do know that there are still many unknowns, but we have a lot of evidence and numbers that give us pretty accurate modeling of its future capabilities.
• (am I forgetting any?)

What we cannot either expect or not expect are these next ones. This is where my opinion (but logical nonetheless) comes in. I believe that it is not worth the risks by banking on these uncertainties to assume that they will 'save us' from an influenza-scaled outbreak with 20x the death rate, but I say that while being informed.

• We do not know if COVID-19 will slow down this summer.
• We do not know if COVID-19 will become a yearly occurrence like the quickly mutating influenza viruses.
• We do not know if COVID-19 has a peak.
• (am I forgetting any?)

Speculation would involve what a company's private plans are, what the CDC is thinking, etc. Unless facts of leaks are presented, or conjecture based upon past scenarios (like Disney's responses in the past to major events), I don't think that speculation is worth prioritizing over the facts here, or even worth talking about without ground rules of facts established. I'm sure we'll find out more in the coming weeks about Disney's move, and how it is spreading throughout the United States.

Good preventative measures can be put in place when we understand the basic facts and what the expected benefits are from those measures.

I'm sorry if I seem/seemed overly aggressive to anyone, and I will not be using caps because I realize my mistakes.

Fortune 500 companies do not shut down factories, restrict travel, close campuses and tell everyone to phone it in because of the flu.

Countries do not close boarders, set up unprecedented quarantines, and take extreme actions directly impacting their GDP because of the flu.

There isn’t a worldwide run on medical supplies, supply line shutdowns, and airlines canceling flights because of the flu.

Can we please drop the argument that ‘the flu ‘ is bigger & causes more deaths then this with every single new development? When we can compare an entire annual season of Covid-19 vs the flu then come back to me and show me the graphs. Right now, extrapolated numbers from the data we have are causing enough concern for these dramatic reactions. If you can’t personally look at those numbers and feel concern and dread, then please tell me where you got your numbers so I can feel better. Governments, health officials, and businesses are not making any of these decisions flippantly because of some whipped up click-bait news fear-mongering.

Standing the flu up as a straw-man argument does nothing but confuse and muddy the waters here. This. Is. Not. The. Flu.

A really strong logical argument corroborated by facts. Love it!