Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[robhedin]

I say it again, I will not be surprised if Disney pulls the plug on reopening.

I wouldn't discount it. In my mind that's likely why they set their opening date so far after everyone else's - to give them time to evaluate how things go, take and apply learnings, and give themselves an opportunity to hit the red button if needed.

On the other hand, I suspect that's probably not desired if at all possible. At the moment things don't look like that will be necessary (for example hospitalizations don't appear to be going up drastically yet; Florida has been averaging about 30% of available hospital beds and 27% available ICU beds for the few days based on hospital reporting to Florida's Agency for Healthcare Administration here: https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/HospitalBedsCounty )

 

[WDWTrojan]

Ah CDC recommendation BINGO, I love this game. Let’s see what recommendation the CDC pulls out of the basket next week. An unrelated question. What does the CDC say about drinking coffee this week? Good? Bad? Should I check back next week?

This is SCIENCE. Reccomendations change as data supports it. As we now know more about the method of transmission (aersosol droplets) and asymptomatic spread masks are more effective than once believed.

 

[GoofGoof]

This is SCIENCE. Reccomendations change as data supports it. As we now know more about the method of transmission (aersosol droplets) and asymptomatic spread masks are more effective than once believed.

This is the problem when science gets politicized. In politics you pick a side and dig in no matter what. With science and academics in general all theories or conclusions are treated with skepticism and challenged repeatedly to ensure the facts and data stack up. It’s not considered a defeat or a big negative to change your conclusions based on new information being available. In fact peer review is encouraged and considered a valuable part of the process.

 

[legwand77]

In the panhandle of Florida it has been business as usual for the past few weeks, typical summer crowds, very crowded, less than 5% of people wearing a mask if even that. Everything is open. Even workers and servers are not wearing masks in some restaurants. Did see workers at Publix still wearing masks. And the six foot rule is not even being observed in the majority of places, maybe in some restaurants with every other table. One would be hard pressed to notice a difference from last year and today.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

This is SCIENCE. Reccomendations change as data supports it. As we now know more about the method of transmission (aersosol droplets) and asymptomatic spread masks are more effective than once believed.

It’s not only science. It’s science working like it should.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

There really isn’t much you can do but not go if you aren’t liking or not comfortable with the parks at this point.

It’s not what I like or am comfortable with, it’s about expecting businesses to follow the guidelines that they created in order to get state approval to reopen.

 

[lazyboy97o]

This is SCIENCE. Reccomendations change as data supports it. As we now know more about the method of transmission (aersosol droplets) and asymptomatic spread masks are more effective than once believed.

It’s not even a lot of new science. Healthcare providers have asked patients with cold and flu-like symptoms to wear a mask for years because they work at hindering the spread of respiratory illnesses. People have similarly been advised to wear them if they have to go out while experiencing such symptoms. What is new is a respiratory illness where persons are contagious without or before symptoms noticeably develop so we are erring on the side of caution and assuming all are contagious since we cannot determine who is or who is not, but contagious persons with a respiratory illness being asked to wear a mask is not new.

 

[Calmdownnow]

That said, that was in a fully indoor, climate controlled environment.

The jury is out on whether climate controlled environments encourage the spread of the infection in enclosed environments. I guess over the next few months the Southern states will provide the evidence. The suggestion is that climate control measures (keeping air cold) in the meat packing plants has been a contributor to spread there.

 

[Rider]

Hospital bed usage exceeds 80% in Orange and Seminole, but officials say no cause for concern yet

More than 80% of general and ICU beds were in use Sunday at Orange and Seminole county hospitals, and health officials say that even though the number of hospitalized coronavirus patients are incre…

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[Chi84]

With science and academics in general all theories or conclusions are treated with skepticism and challenged repeatedly to ensure the facts and data stack up.

This is exactly what I'm saying about the use of cloth masks by the general populace. Too many people are relying on studies of N95 respirators in hospitals and then concluding that cloth masks are going to make things safer at Disney.

 

[Calmdownnow]

What is the tipping point? At what stage -- positive infection figures/ hospitalization rate -- do people risk assess whether to press go or cancel on their Disney vacation? Or is the decision for most people just based on how much money they already have invested in a Disney booking?

 

[GoofGoof]

This is exactly what I'm saying about the use of cloth masks by the general populace. Too many people are relying on studies of N95 respirators in hospitals and then concluding that cloth masks are going to make things safer at Disney.

I can’t speak for the other people, but I’m not doing that or saying that at all. I’m not basing any opinion on masks for Disney parks or anywhere else on any studies of N95 respirators in hospitals. The medal experts from the CDC, various departments of health and other sources are all advocating that the use of masks (non-N95 masks) helps to reduce the spread. I’m supposed to just assume they are all wrong? It’s the best information we have today. It’s based on the limited but growing information that we have about how the virus spreads. That could change tomorrow as more information is learned. There’s no ”study” that’s going to show the exact percent of decline in virus spread due to masks. That’s not even possible to quantify. There’s also no study that’s been published which shows that washing hands is effective or physical distancing. It’s all based on what we know about the way the virus works.

 

[lilypgirl]

What is the tipping point? At what stage -- positive infection figures/ hospitalization rate -- do people risk assess whether to press go or cancel on their Disney vacation? Or is the decision for most people just based on how much money they already have invested in a Disney booking?

For us it’s a lot of things but we are all healthy no weight issues or other health issues. We have several friends and family members who work in the hospital setting and all have told us 9 out of 10 seriously ill patients THAT THEY HAVE SEEN have been elderly, obese and/or lots of other health issues. We take a big trip every 2 years so we are pressing on. We will follow the park rules and wear mask but I will be honest we only wear them in required areas so 99% of the time we don’t because it’s not mandatory where I live. There is a actually a doctor traveling with us with her family and I feel like if she thinks it’s safe enough for her family than it is for us as well.

 

[GoofGoof]

What is the tipping point? At what stage -- positive infection figures/ hospitalization rate -- do people risk assess whether to press go or cancel on their Disney vacation? Or is the decision for most people just based on how much money they already have invested in a Disney booking?

Disney waived resort cancellation fees, extended the expiration date on unused ticket days on date specific tickets to Sept 2021 and most airlines are also not charging change fees. There’s not a whole lot of money you stand to lose when cancelling unless you bought from a third party travel agent who won’t refund. I think the bigger issue for people on the fence is probably what’s open and specific restrictions like masks, shorter hours and no parades/fireworks/shows. Most people worried about the health and safety aspect probably already cancelled. It‘s not likely the situation on the ground is going to be that much different in a month.

 

[Calmdownnow]

It‘s not likely the situation on the ground is going to be that much different in a month.

The speed with which this infection passes suggests that it could be very different in a month's time. Think about where Florida was before Memorial day, less than a month ago.

 

[GoofGoof]

The speed with which this infection passes suggests that it could be very different in a month's time. Think about where Florida was before Memorial day, less than a month ago.

It’s anecdotal, but a number of people posting in this thread don’t even agree that anything is worse today than Memorial Day. They don’t believe the numbers are going up or if they do think they are going up they don’t think that fact is a big deal anyway. Those people won’t cancel. Most of the people on the other side weren’t going to go anyway whether cases went up, down or stayed the same. This is all just my opinion, but most of the people planning on going to WDW this summer are much more likely to cancel due to stuff like further restrictions or up charges for switching hotels than virus related data.

 

[Calmdownnow]

This is all just my opinion, but most of the people planning on going to WDW this summer are much more likely to cancel due to stuff like further restrictions or up charges for switching hotels than virus related data.

You are probably right. But that is a statement that bemuses me about the lack of rational thinking out there at the moment when it comes to risk assessment in the Disney community

 

[GoofGoof]

You are probably right. But that is a statement that bemuses me about the lack of rational thinking out there at the moment when it comes to risk assessment in the Disney community

I don’t disagree. I’m just gonna be really ed off if my kids can’t go back to school in the fall because we rushed to open a damn water park and we‘re all back on stay at home orders. I really hope thats not the case.

 

[Jrb1979]

If by prevented you mean staying In your house until there is a vaccine than like I have said a million times I will take my chances.

No prevented by following physical distancing, wearing masks and washing your hands.

 

[robhedin]

Hospital bed usage exceeds 80% in Orange and Seminole, but officials say no cause for concern yet

More than 80% of general and ICU beds were in use Sunday at Orange and Seminole county hospitals, and health officials say that even though the number of hospitalized coronavirus patients are incre…

www.orlandosentinel.com

Similar to Houston: the hospitals are once again being used for non-COVID care, so their utilization numbers are going up. For example, at The Texas Medical Center in Houston their ICU utilization numbers earlier today was at about 73%, but when you broke out the actual reasons the people were in ICU, 15% were there for COVID related matters, and 58% were for non COVID. Their early warning metrics were all green except for a 12 day upward trend in cases that they consider of moderate concern (orange). See: https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/proposed-early-warning-monitoring-and-mitigation-metrics/