Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
People don’t typically need help discrediting themselves when they attempt to defy logic.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Do you say that same thing to 1000’s of protesters many of whom are government officials participating in the protest?In this case...those downplaying a pandemic that has pretty much followed the patterns as warned.
...but you do your thing
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
That’s real life...and though i don’t agree with it, I can’t frame it as the same as those that have come to a Disney forum and tried to accuse everything that’s happened in the last 3+ months as an elaborate scheme of “crying wolf”. But posterity can read all those posts overtime with a combination of laughter and disbelief.
I try to make simple choices...I didn’t need to question one thing: when the American economy voluntarily shuts almost overnight...we, the people, need to take it seriously. As if all that money was going to be sacrificed for a “hoax”. Power (the saying is “everything on earth is about power...and power is about money”) doesn’t work that way.
I’m actually glad we are where we are...we’ll likely never know how bad the puppet masters thought this was gonna go...
So that being said...I think the last few days of indications...both in Florida and nationally...are cause for alarm to Disney. My assumption is they were counting on a very fast decline to near zero covid cases/fatalities over the summer with their reopening plans. As I write this...the morning news is they’re saying 1,000 deaths in the US yesterday. Too high for business comfort.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Florida's death graph on the dashboard always looks like that for exactly the reason it says on the dashboard under the graph, "Death data often has significant delays in reporting, so data within the past two weeks will be updated frequently." When the deaths are reported and added to the total, the dashboard counts it on the day the death occurred, not the day it was reported. Like I said, it has been roughly flat, possibly with a slight downward trend (which is the same as the NYT graph shows even though they account for deaths on the day they are reported).
If you assume the large number of asymptomatic cases, I would not expect the percentage of positives to go down much until the number of active cases starts dropping significantly. The asymptomatic cases are basically being somewhat randomly sampled with the increased testing. Due to the flat curve with the time extended, it doesn't seem like the down slope has started yet in a significant way. Also, look at the scale of the chart. The past 4 weeks had 1 abnormally low week (WE 5/17) but the other 3 have been in the 4% range which is down from the 5.5% - 6.5% range in the prior weeks. That seems to indicate a reduction in disease prevalence. The one really low week could have been the result of a lot of tests in very low prevalence areas.
True but it also stretches the plateau out as well which seems to be what we've been seeing. The best "sentinel" metric is probably hospitalizations because they seem to be roughly consistent as a ratio of actual cases. They also don't skew to the nursing home age nearly as much as deaths so will be a better indicator of the general population.
The site tallahasseereports.com has been tracking the daily new hospitalizations.
This data also indicates a flat curve with possibly slight downward trend. This is an encouraging trend because we are well past the "Initial Phase 1" county start date and this data goes 17 days past the "Full Phase 1."
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
...and the band plays on.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
You need to look at trends. There is a clear downward trend in daily deaths in the USA. By the time Disney opens in a little over a month, it should be down to below 500 deaths per day if the same trend continues. I don't think it will get to 0 by 8/4 like the original IHME predicted. 500 per day is only 10 per state per day. If the trend continues after WDW is back open then Disney has nothing to worry about.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I have looked at the trends...and it’s still an opinion.
But you glossed over the fact that there is steep decline in the former “hot spots” while a lot of “steady” in the others...that’s how averages can work.
I’m of the belief Disney still doesn’t want any part of park openings right now. It’s just an opinion after 25 years of watching...several years all day long...it is what it is.
I don't think anyone really thought that the death rate was ever going to drop to zero overnight! I wish it would but realistically people die and it sucks when it happens like this.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Nor did anyone...I just think the “linger” is still cause for concern IF I was Disney.
I can’t figure out how it’s really spreading at all in the US?? It’s almost seems like it’s “willful stupidity” unless it involves health care workers/patients.
But that’s why there was the cry for mass testing and tracing...operating blind is not preferable.
Oh well.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
New York and New Jersey were the two hot spots (well, really mostly New York) that drove the peak and the steep decline. However, they were both down to their current, much lower, steady state around 5/20. The country as a whole has continued a downward trend since then (not a steep decline but still downward).
If this trend continues, it should be in the 10 per state per day on average level by the time WDW starts opening. I don't see why Disney would be concerned if it is at that level and keeps trending down at some rate. They didn't exactly rush to shut down Paris when deaths were exploding in Italy and cases were exploding all over Europe.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
I am also perplexed as to how it is still spreading as much as it is. Even in the "evil" places where they didn't do stay at home orders, they still have social distancing requirements for businesses and from personal observation, the vast majority are abiding by social distancing.
I wish they would make the results of contact tracing public. Obviously not with names and addresses but with as much info as possible. If it was asymptomatic people spreading within households, we should be far enough along where everybody in the household was infected and either had symptoms or didn't by this point.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Again...johns Hopkins as of two days ago: 18 states down, 13 flat, 19 up.
Now the caveat is some of the “ups” are very sparsely populated and don’t really spike the numbers...
I’m just saying it’s not all positive. Don’t bother posting alternative charts or trying to flip that on its ear. They have no reason to “overstate” anything except to preach caution...which has been the right call since day one.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Ohio has a pretty similar trend:
the good news here is that if I asked you to point out on the graph when Ohio began to reopen services you couldn't do it. What's interesting is that Ohio graphs the current number of people in hospital beds and this has been steadily decreasing for weeks from ~1100 to ~700 now. With a flat # of admissions you would think this would stay constant as well. But perhaps some of those admissions from late March are just now being discharged, or perhaps treatments are improving and average length of stay has shortened.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Good questions and points. I know in my state that >70% of cases in the past month have been prisons and nursing homes, where I am sure they are doing there best, but particularly in a nursing home some personal contact cannot be avoided. But I don't know abotu the other 30%.
As a perspective from the uk - we are seeing the same sort of trends - our case numbers go down and then plateau for a few days and then drop - problem is that we are doing record amounts of testing (220,000 a day) now although caution has to be taken with the way we are recording number of tests. Our numbers aren’t declining as much as our (doom and gloom) scientists want but it seems to be driven by care homes and hospitals rather than in the community. For me the virus in the uk is now virtually a nosocomial virus and talk of such thing as the r rate is not helpful as there really is a distinct difference between r in the community and r in hospitals and care homes.
Our fatality rate is falling but again we have changed how we are recording them again on 1st June which has landed a load of retrospective data which we report on one day which totally panics everyone!
we are being very cautious with opening and seem to be adding restrictions as much as we are taking them away seemingly driven by the economy and sod social interactions and family! We also have a really issue with our unions who won’t allow things to open up again especially schools despite govt allowing them to
however our Merlin theme parks are hoping to open on July 4th and at this time are recommending not mandating face masks which for me is a plus as I really really struggle with tuen due to sinus issues
- disney for me is a nono whilst masks are mandatory which makes me sad
Our fatality rate is falling but again we have changed how we are recording them again on 1st June which has landed a load of retrospective data which we report on one day which totally panics everyone!
we are being very cautious with opening and seem to be adding restrictions as much as we are taking them away seemingly driven by the economy and sod social interactions and family! We also have a really issue with our unions who won’t allow things to open up again especially schools despite govt allowing them to
however our Merlin theme parks are hoping to open on July 4th and at this time are recommending not mandating face masks which for me is a plus as I really really struggle with tuen due to sinus issues
- disney for me is a nono whilst masks are mandatory which makes me sad
G00fyDad
Well-Known Member
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
See pictures and videos of the parties going on for your answer. I kid but can’t be helping.
rd805
Well-Known Member
COVID is not going away, and will be lingering for sometime. It is up to if people are going to continue to "care" about it or not.
Either way, I think we as people should be able to make our own decisions on if we want to go out or not (or run businesses, or let a company operate a theme park IF THEY WANT TO), bc as you said, we are NOT going to convince the people that think it is is safe, that it is NOT safe and vice versa.
Chi84
Premium Member
So why do it? In my experience, all it does is detract from your own position and diminish the conversation.
You forgot to add protesting to your list of how it spreads.
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