Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I think the Johns Hopkins numbers showed that over the last week, 18 states saw a decline in cases, 13 were stable, and 19 showed a rise.

Guess which group Florida was in?...and that’s with frankly “questionable” reporting practices...

So nothing has changed all that much other than the panic DID flatten the curve. And now we’ll role with it and see if it gets serious again?

In other words: Rock your mask.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
MickeyLuv'r

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
Chi84 said:
The part of my comment you quoted wasn’t a complaint - it was a setup for a joke. I’m apparently incapable of learning . . .
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Oh, know, I understood you were joking, or perhaps to be more precise, I understood that you were at least partly joking. Tone is always a bit tricky to convey/interpret in writing.

And these are truly crazy days.

I'm feeling a bit of whiplash regarding the news right now. We went from 100% covid-19 coverage 24/7 to 24/7 coverage of civil unrest. We went from debating how and when to slowly re-open with the proper level of social distancing to throngs of people instantly and completely abandoning all social distancing. I have no idea what that means for the idea of WDW reopening.

In Disney-speak: 🐿SQUIRREL!
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
disneygeek90 said:
Florida numbers. Hmmm....
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Rider said:
A new record!
www.orlandosentinel.com

Florida’s reported coronavirus cases jump 1,419 in biggest daily increase yet

The number of Florida coronavirus cases surpassed 60,000 Thursday as the health department logged 1,419 new cases, the largest single-day increase in reported cases on record. The record jump comes…
www.orlandosentinel.com www.orlandosentinel.com
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Sirwalterraleigh said:
I think the Johns Hopkins numbers showed that over the last week, 18 states saw a decline in cases, 13 were stable, and 19 showed a rise.

Guess which group Florida was in?...and that’s with frankly “questionable” reporting practices...

So nothing has changed all that much other than the panic DID flatten the curve. And now we’ll role with it and see if it gets serious again?

In other words: Rock your mask.
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The daily cases are not a valuable metric. If you look at the detailed PDF report, the daily case count essentially tracks the number of test results that were reported that day with some slight variation in new case positive percentage. The more test capacity, the more people get tested for the heck of it and the more asymptomatic cases get discovered. My business partner got tested just because he happened to be near a test site. This type of thing will happen more and more as the Publix and Home Depot test sites open.

tests.jpg


The metrics that give a better idea of the situation are the daily deaths and hospitalizations because those remain relatively consistent as a percentage of actual cases (not confirmed cases). When looked at with a moving average, the deaths and hospitalizations are essentially flat since early April.

So far, Florida has "flattened the curve." As was illustrated by Dr. Fauci and the CDC graphics a couple of months ago, when you flatten the curve, it also extends the curve in time. If the outbreak spiked unabated, the duration is less because you'll hit herd immunity. With the flattening, less people will hopefully be infected but there will be a steady stream of cases for months, probably until there is a vaccine unless immunity lasts long enough where the 60% or whatever is need for herd immunity gets infected before the immunity from the earlier cases wears off.

The most important thing is that the hospitalization numbers stay roughly flat as the reopening happens.
 
wdisney9000

wdisney9000

Truindenashendubapreser
Premium Member
disneygeek90 said:
Not comparable. The people that died this week were likely diagnosed weeks ago, when daily numbers were lower.

Hopefully the death rate continues to decline over the next several weeks in spite of the recent spike over the past few days.
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What was the death toll during the period you cited? You can either answer the question or not reply. I understand your point and it is completely valid, but Im just asking what the death toll was.

not trolling, just attempting to learn more. I appreciate your consideration and response.
 
disneygeek90

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
wdisney9000 said:
What was the death toll during the period you cited? You can either answer the question or not reply. I understand your point and it is completely valid, but Im just asking what the death toll was.

not trolling, just attempting to learn more. I appreciate your consideration and response.
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I'm counting 947 FL deaths in the past 30 days, which is the length of time covered on the original graph.
 
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
1591314520954.png


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Florida's death graph always looks like it's going down because of delays in collating data, but it's been looking like that for weeks and never gets to the bottom. The NYT death graph above comes from constantly checking with each county.

1591314828567.png


There's been a lot of extra testing in the past few weeks, so, percentage of positives should go down, right? But no significant drop in the past three weeks...

1591314925579.png



"Flattening the curve" meant not only preventing a high spike, but stretching out the downward slope after the peak. There is no appreciable downward slope in Florida. It's been plateaued. It's like the embers of a fire. A fresh log can start a big blaze.
 
L

lilypgirl

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
No...but there are local millennial keyboard warriors 😉

They’ve been at it for 3 months...downplay until everyone loses interest.
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I think it’s cute that you are calling out key board warriors!🙄 Maybe everyone lost interest because the covid narrative keeps changing and apparently in light of current events it’s not as dangerous as we were told. I think if it were my Governor who has kept me locked up in my house , TRIED to prevent me from getting salon services, stopped elective surgeries and basic health care appointments, and at one point wouldn’t even let us purchase socks wouldn’t be out marching arm and arm with protesters . In her defense she did lift several of her orders right before she went out chanting “hands up don’t shoot“. Before you pile on I have nothing against protesting but if we can look the other way in terms of covid spread for it than wanting Simple things like our economy back up and running shouldn’t be balked at.
 
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