Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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hopemax

hopemax

Well-Known Member
brianstl said:
Is the NYC death count only NYC residents or is the count all of confirmed and probable COVID death certificates issued by the NYC Department of Health? Because if it includes all COVID deaths occurring at NYC medical facilities it would greatly inflate the death rate for NYC residents because it would include thousands of deaths of non NYC residents who died in NYC.
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My initial numbers, I'm not sure. However, going to the NYC Health Department website, the graph they show with the totals is labeled "Daily number of COVID-19 deaths among NYC residents" so I would assume the table of numbers is also just residents.

Confirmed COVID-19 deaths: 16,585
Probable COVID-19 deaths: 4,749 (asterisk - some of these will be moved to confirmed, awaiting test results)
Total: 21,334

I assume all of these have COVID-19 on the death certificate.

The health department would not include the "excess death" counts that are being estimated by other research groups.

So with these numbers, it doesn't change that with an estimated IFR of .26%, predicted deaths are very near the current death total. With only 25% of the population having been infected, so the current death total will continue to grow.
 
Giss Neric

Giss Neric

Well-Known Member
scoobdoo said:
Don’t expect me to turn up if the placebo mask is mandatory.
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Who exactly is expecting you to be there? You either deal with it or don't go. You can also wait till masks are not required but time will tell.

Placebo effect does not matter cause masks are not for the wearer of the mask. It's for protecting others from you in case you are symptomatic.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Jwink said:
Anyone else think this is all too soon yet? Of course people need to get back to work but sheesh at what cost? Things are opening too quickly. I thought each phase was supposed to be gradual? We skipped to the end.
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In what way has any place skipped to the end? How would opening theme parks with screenings and social distancing measures be skipping to the end?

Phase 1 of the guidelines allowed for large venues to operate with strict social distancing. That's what the theme parks will be doing when they reopen.

Just to put things in a little perspective, as of the latest report, almost 48% of the deaths in Florida were residents of long term care facilities. Those people are not in the WDW demographic and the procedures put in place at those facilities mitigate the risk of infecting somebody in the facility after visiting WDW.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
MisterPenguin said:
Why are we parsing how bad COVID is to a small demographic of the population when we know pretty darned sure how bad it is to the general population...

100,000 dead in 3 months.*


*Just the USA
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Because it isn't that simple. It is FAR more deadly to elderly people than to middle aged and younger people. Also, a very disproportionate percentage of the deaths are to nursing home residents. In Florida, almost 48% of the deaths were nursing home residents while nursing home residents make up less than 0.5% of the population of Florida. Nursing home residents tend to be both very old and have many medical issues.

As of the latest data, the mortality rate in Florida for documented cases of people under age 55 is 0.46%. That doesn't take into account all of the asymptomatic and mild cases that weren't detected (which become more likely the younger somebody is). In Florida, there has yet to be a single fatality in a person under age 25 despite 5,364 documented cases in people under age 25.

It is very bad for a certain age demographic, especially when people in that demographic have underlying medical conditions, but is not very bad for the "general population."
 
L

lisa12000

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Because it isn't that simple. It is FAR more deadly to elderly people than to middle aged and younger people. Also, a very disproportionate percentage of the deaths are to nursing home residents. In Florida, almost 48% of the deaths were nursing home residents while nursing home residents make up less than 0.5% of the population of Florida. Nursing home residents tend to be both very old and have many medical issues.

As of the latest data, the mortality rate in Florida for documented cases of people under age 55 is 0.46%. That doesn't take into account all of the asymptomatic and mild cases that weren't detected (which become more likely the younger somebody is). In Florida, there has yet to be a single fatality in a person under age 25 despite 5,364 documented cases in people under age 25.

It is very bad for a certain age demographic, especially when people in that demographic have underlying medical conditions, but is not very bad for the "general population."
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Our latest seroprevalence study suggests that 17.5% of all Londoners have had the virus and this could be as high as 22.5% by the middle of April - this is adjusted for the sensitivity of the test but doesn’t take into account that some people don’t produce antibodies so could be higher. This suggest ls a IFR of around 0.4 and there suspect it could be as low as 0.25. Interestingly in our north west it’s about 12.5% (possibly as high as 15) but with the 20-29 age group it could be as high as 20% - this is much higher than countries such as Spain who locked down earlier.
 
J

jinx8402

Well-Known Member
Curious about anyone's thoughts on Kilimanjaro Safari potentially being closed in August? According to both the dibb and touringplans FP+ availability tools, it looks like it will be closed starting August 1. Most of the other things that look too be closed Aug 1 are meet and greets and shows (FOL, Nemo, UP! etc).

Interesting that in July, these are all available, including the Safari. So not sure what any of this means. Were they originally shooting for Aug 1 and didn't bother removing FP+ availability before then? Have they just not gone back and re-adjusted availability for Aug dates?
 
ImperfectPixie

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Because it isn't that simple. It is FAR more deadly to elderly people than to middle aged and younger people. Also, a very disproportionate percentage of the deaths are to nursing home residents. In Florida, almost 48% of the deaths were nursing home residents while nursing home residents make up less than 0.5% of the population of Florida. Nursing home residents tend to be both very old and have many medical issues.

As of the latest data, the mortality rate in Florida for documented cases of people under age 55 is 0.46%. That doesn't take into account all of the asymptomatic and mild cases that weren't detected (which become more likely the younger somebody is). In Florida, there has yet to be a single fatality in a person under age 25 despite 5,364 documented cases in people under age 25.

It is very bad for a certain age demographic, especially when people in that demographic have underlying medical conditions, but is not very bad for the "general population."
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There's one problem with the way you're (not just you, either...it's part of the inherent problems involved with the virus) presenting this - it isn't as cut-and-dry as "death or survival"...and I think there needs to be further studies conducted among those who have had COVID-19 and survived, those who didn't get sick enough to be admitted to a hospital, and those who simply stayed home so that we're able to have a better grasp on the range and prevalence of the various symptoms, how many will experience long-term effects, etc. etc. Until we know all that information, we can't possibly expect to make smart choices. And for the love of God...more testing.
 
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
jinx8402 said:
Curious about anyone's thoughts on Kilimanjaro Safari potentially being closed in August? According to both the dibb and touringplans FP+ availability tools, it looks like it will be closed starting August 1. Most of the other things that look too be closed Aug 1 are meet and greets and shows (FOL, Nemo, UP! etc).

Interesting that in July, these are all available, including the Safari. So not sure what any of this means. Were they originally shooting for Aug 1 and didn't bother removing FP+ availability before then? Have they just not gone back and re-adjusted availability for Aug dates?
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I hate to compare WDW to Six Flags but the Six Flags Great Adventure safari will likely be a drive thru all year. My wife misses the animals and got me to rejoin this year solely for the safari. Now, given the line issues at AK and the trucks, we are not sure we will trust the AK Safari until after we are vaccinated for Covid19. We love the parks and the movies and shoiws. Social distancing can be set in those attractions and at restaurants so we will go to the parks but are concerned about the rides.
 
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