Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Chomama]

The flu vaccine is only partially effective. It does not cover all flu viruses. They basically monitor the flu outbreak in China every year to see what the most prevalent strains are and make the vaccine for those. Tamiflu is not very effective. I have been told this by multiple physicians who have said "it doesn't do anything." My business partner is friends with an executive at a pharmaceutical company who told him that tamiflu is "a sham."

The survival on surfaces is why it is extremely important to sanitize surfaces. Being contagious for 3-4 days before showing symptoms was contradicted by the head of the WHO a few days ago.

Ok! I am not going to argue. I hope you are correct. Have direct info that disagrees but I really think everyone will interpret all of the news differently. Again, I have no opinion of Disney closing. I am, however, alarmed by the stories coming out of Italy.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

NYC update: Hamilton is on TodayTix. For those who don’t follow theater, that’s pretty revolutionary. See what I did there?

don’t throw away your shot!!

 

[Jwink]

I am so sorry but I think I is becoming clear that this view is no longer valid. For the flu we have vaccines, tamiflu and established research. Unfortunately this virus is very contagious and lives on surfaces up to 3 days. Also you are likely contagious for 3-4 days before showing symptoms. Basically it is the responsibility of healthy people to avoid crowds so they can protect our neighbors with with weakened immune systems. I have no opinion on what Disney should do, but I would not care to work there at the moment. Also, if you will be homeless from not working two weeks you may be living beyond your means. I say that just as an encouragement to evaluate your finances. You should be able to miss work for emergencies and not live on the streets. Are there no less expensive housing options?

Where did you get 2 weeks?! If we are out for 2 weeks we can use vacation and sick time. If Disney closes it will be most likely for more than a month. Weeks to months! We aren’t living above our means but we had horrible infertility issues and after 6 years finally have our baby- so yeah we’ve accrued debt and medical bills which are fine and current ... but being out of work will be a significant blow.

 

[Jwink]

I am so sorry but I think I is becoming clear that this view is no longer valid. For the flu we have vaccines, tamiflu and established research. Unfortunately this virus is very contagious and lives on surfaces up to 3 days. Also you are likely contagious for 3-4 days before showing symptoms. Basically it is the responsibility of healthy people to avoid crowds so they can protect our neighbors with with weakened immune systems. I have no opinion on what Disney should do, but I would not care to work there at the moment. Also, if you will be homeless from not working two weeks you may be living beyond your means. I say that just as an encouragement to evaluate your finances. You should be able to miss work for emergencies and not live on the streets. Are there no less expensive housing options?

Oh and also no. There are no less expensive housing options. We bought a house 3 years ago because we live in a tourist area. A small 1000 sqft apartment is upwards of $1500. Our house is larger than that and cheaper. We chose to move further from Disney to save on housing

 

[Crunchie9]

Here is up to date data from South Korea, which due to their mass testing that other countries will hopefully follow with is gives the most accurate picture of the disease.

View attachment 455696
*the line that says 19-Oct should say 10-19 and was formatted by excel as a date.

The picture presented by this data is that COVID-19 is essentially a non issue for people under 50. It becomes a small issue between 50 and 59 and becomes significant over 70. Interesting (which mirrors China but at a lower rate) is the fatality rate among males being over twice as high as among females. Caveat that the people under 50 can spread it to people in the high risk groups.

Looking for smoking rates, I found that "In 2016, the cigarette smoking prevalence was 40.7% among male adults and 6.4% among female adults." To actually draw a conclusion that the fatality rate is related to smoking, we'd have to see data (which I haven't seen) that was actually broken down by smokers vs. non-smokers. However, it is a reasonable theory that smoking significantly increases the risk of dying from COVID-19. It may be indirect in that the smoking has led to other medical conditions which are the direct cause of the rate increase.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

Table 1

85.4% of 1066 people infected were NON SMOKERS.

Interesting.

That being said,I am making efforts to stop smoking weed

 

[DisneyCane]

Where did you get 2 weeks?! If we are out for 2 weeks we can use vacation and sick time. If Disney closes it will be most likely for more than a month. Weeks to months! We aren’t living above our means but we had horrible infertility issues and after 6 years finally have our baby- so yeah we’ve accrued debt and medical bills which are fine and current ... but being out of work will be a significant blow.

First, congrats on your baby!

I would try to relax a little about the prospect of WDW closing. First, Disneyland Paris is still open and France has over 8 times the cases per million population as the USA. Three employees of DLP have tested positive and they are still operating.

Second, like I said, if WDW is forced to shut down due to coronavirus, I am very confident that the administration will either provide aid directly or work with Disney for Disney to provide it. Having 75,000 people in a single area not getting paychecks will do severe damage to the local economy. The powers that be will work very hard to not have that happen.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

Table 1

85.4% of 1066 people infected were NON SMOKERS.

Interesting.

That being said,I am making efforts to stop smoking weed

For some reason the link won't open. Did it say anything about fatalities and smoking?

 

[Chomama]

Where did you get 2 weeks?! If we are out for 2 weeks we can use vacation and sick time. If Disney closes it will be most likely for more than a month. Weeks to months! We aren’t living above our means but we had horrible infertility issues and after 6 years finally have our baby- so yeah we’ve accrued debt and medical bills which are fine and current ... but being out of work will be a significant blow.

I misread. I was thinking of the 2 week quarantine. Please accept my apologies. Yes, this situation would be a burden to any family. Hopefully the government will be able to bridge that gap. Again, I am tired and completely misread no am so sorry

 

[JenniferS]

Where did you get 2 weeks?! If we are out for 2 weeks we can use vacation and sick time. If Disney closes it will be most likely for more than a month. Weeks to months! We aren’t living above our means but we had horrible infertility issues and after 6 years finally have our baby- so yeah we’ve accrued debt and medical bills which are fine and current ... but being out of work will be a significant blow.

Not that it matters, but I’m not judging you. Life happens.

Congratulations on finally having your baby. I hope everything works out okay for you and your family.

 

[disneygeek90]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

Table 1

85.4% of 1066 people infected were NON SMOKERS.

Interesting.

That being said,I am making efforts to stop smoking weed

So not smoking increases your chances of getting the virus? That seems... counter intuitive.

 

[Crunchie9]

First, congrats on your baby!

I would try to relax a little about the prospect of WDW closing. First, Disneyland Paris is still open and France has over 8 times the cases per million population as the USA. Three employees of DLP have tested positive and they are still operating.

Second, like I said, if WDW is forced to shut down due to coronavirus, I am very confident that the administration will either provide aid directly or work with Disney for Disney to provide it. Having 75,000 people in a single area not getting paychecks will do severe damage to the local economy. The powers that be will work very hard to not have that happen.



For some reason the link won't open. Did it say anything about fatalities and smoking?

Thats the best i got.

Its about 20%

or for those probability nuts

.126*.169 = 0.021294 is the odds that you are a smoker with severe cases

Overweight is not considered.

OR

0.211678832 * .126 = 0.0266715328

 

[Rich Brownn]

The flu vaccine is only partially effective. It does not cover all flu viruses. They basically monitor the flu outbreak in China every year to see what the most prevalent strains are and make the vaccine for those. Tamiflu is not very effective. I have been told this by multiple physicians who have said "it doesn't do anything." My business partner is friends with an executive at a pharmaceutical company who told him that tamiflu is "a sham."

The survival on surfaces is why it is extremely important to sanitize surfaces. Being contagious for 3-4 days before showing symptoms was contradicted by the head of the WHO a few days ago.

Discounting that this years flu shot was very effective (90% match) even with non match, the flu shot helps lessen the symptoms and dramatically decreases the risk for escalating into a more serious illness.

 

[Crunchie9]

So not smoking increases your chances of getting the virus? That seems... counter intuitive.

I dont make the rules.

 

[DisneyCane]

View attachment 455705

Thats the best i got.

Its about 20%

or for those probability nuts

.126*.169 = 0.021294 is the odds that you are a smoker with severe cases

Overweight is not considered.

OR

0.211678832 * .126 = 0.0266715328

I'm half asleep so hopefully I'm coherent enough to state this thought. Current smokers are 12.6% of all cases in the study but 16.9% of severe cases. Therefore, smokers are more likely to have a severe case if infected because they are a disproportionate percentage of the severe cases.

Counterintuitively, it seems like smokers were less likely to be infected. Maybe the poison in the smoke kills the virus???

 

[Brer Oswald]

My god people, this is not the Black Plague.

 

[Squishy]

My god people, this is not the Black Plague.

Yellow Plague

 

[Crunchie9]

I'm half asleep so hopefully I'm coherent enough to state this thought. Current smokers are 12.6% of all cases in the study but 16.9% of severe cases. Therefore, smokers are more likely to have a severe case if infected because they are a disproportionate percentage of the severe cases.

Counterintuitively, it seems like smokers were less likely to be infected. Maybe the poison in the smoke kills the virus???

.2116 (29/137) Smokers
.1446 (134/927) Non Smokers
For Severity. Keep in mind this was from Late January and only Wuhan

 

[UNCgolf]

Counterintuitively, it seems like smokers were less likely to be infected. Maybe the poison in the smoke kills the virus???

The sample sizes are way too small to come to that conclusion, not to mention the numerous other variables involved which would have to be accounted for before reaching any kind of conclusion.

That smoking/non-smoking figure is a correlation without any causation from a statistical standpoint.

 

[trainplane3]

My god people, this is not the Black Plague.

My toilet roll, hand sanitizer, and water fort would beg to disagree. This baby is gonna keep me shielded from the oncoming apocalypse.

 

[KeithVH]

Y'all are looking at the wrong number(s). Until the R0 gets down to normal influenza levels, we have a problem.

 

[Disorbust]

But it is going to be a health care apocolapse. I work in a huge academic medical center and we can barely make it during a "slow" flu season. Never enough beds, patients boarding in the nurses break room and people dying in the ED while they wait.

ANYTHING that can be done to "slow" the number of cases needs to first priority or Doctors will be having to decide who gets a ventilator.

America has higher morbitiy and mortality rates then many other "second" world countries. America for example has a higher mortality rate for chilbirth then Iran.