Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Polynesia

Well-Known Member
Is it as deadly now as it was back when it started? I am assuming not because we don't really here much about it. It makes me wonder if the rona will meet the same fate.
I’ve been trying to find an exact answer to your question. It’s part of the annual flu vaccine so it’s a bit more preventable. But it appears to still be a very nasty strain of the flu. I think you may be correct that covid will follow a similar path.
 

VaderTron

Well-Known Member
To those that think a vaccine is impossible to develop sooner rather than later. I remember as a child standing in line to be vaccinated for this.
Just how much so can be seen if we look back at how the U.S. — and indeed the world — handled the now largely forgotten 1968–’69 Hong Kong flu pandemic. It was an especially infectious virus that had the ability to mutate and render existing vaccines ineffective.

Hundreds of thousands were hospitalized in the U.S. as the disease hit all 50 states by Christmas 1968. Like COVID-19, It was fatal primarily to people older than 65 with preexisting conditions.

The Centers for Disease Control reports that it killed more than 1 million people worldwide, more than 100,000 of them in the U.S. Luckily, a vaccine was developed early — in August 1969. But the Hong Kong flu is still with us as a seasonal malady.

Flu vaccines are easily made. New ones are made every year. There is a base knowledge already in existence of what is needed. It's just modified to fit the needs of the specific strain.

This is totally different.

We have no baseline vaccine for ANY coronavirus to modify.


The difference can be seen in what type of coronavirus vaccines are being pushed and heralded as "having early signs that it's safe and may even be effective in prevention". (Note they slip in that they don't have evidence yet that it prevents someone from getting infected.) What methods are they using? In one of the leading vaccines they are using unproven, cutting-edge technologies that have no record of safety behind them, namely gene-editing. The only other vaccine in history to use this was the Ebola vaccine they just made a couple of years ago, and it wasn't as major of an technique in the development. (Not that it wasn't careless, but that's another story.) It's interesting that the same techniques of gene-editing were condemned for use in humans as reckless due to it's unknown long-term affects. A Chinese scientist was jailed for 3 years for editing genes in babies. Additionally, the world has largely embraced non-GMO food and showed a preference in non-GMO eating with their purchasing power after decades of being told that genetically modified food would be the solution to mankind's food chain problems. What is GMO? Genetically modified organism. Their use in crops was promised to reduce pesticide use, increase crop yields, and provide the same nutritional value. Instead more pesticides are needed, they have led to the rise of "superweeds" that do not die when sprayed with herbicides (genetic mutation driven by it's growth in dirt containing decaying plant matter of modified crops), large numbers of people who grew up eating them have developed allergies or intolerances to these foods, and the nutritional value is often much lower including the amount of vital nutrients, minerals, and vitamins they contain.

This technology, with all it's issues and questions, is being used to modify a monkey virus similar to the common cold that infects your cells and recodes them to produce the equivalent of the outer ring of the coronavirus. The purpose is for your body to recognize the corona of the coronavirus and attack it. They use a chimpanzee virus because the hope is you have never been infected by a chimpanzee virus. If you were, your immune system would fight it off before it got to infect your cells and the benefits would be zero. However, if you haven't, the scientists give it a "fair shot" (I thought a vaccine was supposed to be more effective than a coin flip...but maybe that's just me.) to infect your cells and do what they want it to do. However, to make it "safe" they have "turned off" a gene that doesn't allow the virus to grow and spread. If it were allowed to, this could be just another pandemic waiting to happen. Of course, viruses mutate all the time. So, who's to say the virus doesn't mutate and turn the gene back on or something equally/more dangerous? Let's not think about that...let's just inject this virus into the host and allow the patient to develop an immune response and build antibodies. What could go wrong? We love putting genetically modified organisms in our body, right?


 
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GoofGoof

Premium Member
And you are to the extreme on the mask side. We all know.
I already made my position quite clear. I won’t go back to WDW while they have a mask rule in place. Whether I think it’s a good idea to have a mask rule or not is irrelevant. Disney has established the rule as a condition for re-opening so if I want to visit I need to wear a mask. Period. Coming up with ways try to circumvent the rules is just petty. Thinking you are going to walk around with a food item in your hand and no mask because you are “dining” is not following the rules. There are people who are willing to accept the rules that Disney is laying out and want to go and try to have a good time. More power to them. Don’t ruin it for those people, if you don’t like it just wait until the rule is gone. If that’s being extreme then so be it.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
To those that think a vaccine is impossible to develop sooner rather than later. I remember as a child standing in line to be vaccinated for this.
Just how much so can be seen if we look back at how the U.S. — and indeed the world — handled the now largely forgotten 1968–’69 Hong Kong flu pandemic. It was an especially infectious virus that had the ability to mutate and render existing vaccines ineffective.

Hundreds of thousands were hospitalized in the U.S. as the disease hit all 50 states by Christmas 1968. Like COVID-19, It was fatal primarily to people older than 65 with preexisting conditions.

The Centers for Disease Control reports that it killed more than 1 million people worldwide, more than 100,000 of them in the U.S. Luckily, a vaccine was developed early — in August 1969. But the Hong Kong flu is still with us as a seasonal malady.
:banghead: Creating a new flu vaccine as is done every year is not the same.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
To those that think a vaccine is impossible to develop sooner rather than later. I remember as a child standing in line to be vaccinated for this.
Just how much so can be seen if we look back at how the U.S. — and indeed the world — handled the now largely forgotten 1968–’69 Hong Kong flu pandemic. It was an especially infectious virus that had the ability to mutate and render existing vaccines ineffective.


Hundreds of thousands were hospitalized in the U.S. as the disease hit all 50 states by Christmas 1968. Like COVID-19, It was fatal primarily to people older than 65 with preexisting conditions.

The Centers for Disease Control reports that it killed more than 1 million people worldwide, more than 100,000 of them in the U.S. Luckily, a vaccine was developed early — in August 1969. But the Hong Kong flu is still with us as a seasonal malady.
Because the Hong Kong flu retained the antigen N2, persons that had be exposed to the 1957 virus apparently retained immune protection through the 1968 one. That would explain the mildness of it compared to 1918. Covid is a whole different beast. And the second wave was much worse.
 
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wishiwere@wdw

Well-Known Member
Hmmm who would have thought? May 17th, the end of the week after reopening lots of business in Florida, they have the largest number of reported cases EVER for the state listed at 1,541 cases. Let's just go ahead and open up WDW in a few weeks. There seem to be no issues...🤔
I’m not attacking you personally... just growing extremely tired of this same old argument. And since we live here, I believe we have some say on the matter. If you listen to the briefings, we were literally told to expect this from the media after the reopening. Why? MUCH higher testing; including a mobile lab that does onsite testing and results the same day for entire long-term care facilities and nursing homes (including staff) all at once. So yes, our numbers have not surprisingly, gone up just as we were told they would. It’s not exactly shocking that the media likes to exclude context and important facts to meet a headline objective. It’s also nearly impossible for the reopening to have had a negative impact on our totals just yet. Could it be coming? Sure. That’s what we’re all waiting to see. As someone else mentioned above, it would seem we must sadly watch the death rate along with all of the other numbers. Again, not picking on you personally but it’s something that seems to be getting leveraged across the country and I wanted to give a different perspective. I even have my direct family calling me crazy for visiting city walk. Meanwhile, I felt 10 times better there vs Walmart or Lowe’s!
 

Bill in Atlanta

Well-Known Member
It's not getting better no matter how much people want it (including me). Ignoring, excusing, "yeah but"-ing won't change that.
It certainly is getting better.

Hospitalizations from covid-19 in some of the "hot spots" two weeks ago vs. now:

New Jersey down from 5,328 to 3,509
Louisiana down from 1,502 to 1,031
NYC down from 281 to 39

And FL is down from 600 to 472.
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
The difference can be seen in what type of coronavirus vaccines are being pushed and heralded as "having early signs that it's safe and may even be effective in prevention". (Note they slip in that they don't have evidence yet that it prevents someone from getting infected.) What methods are they using? In one of the leading vaccines they are using unproven, cutting-edge technologies that have no record of safety behind them, namely gene-editing. The only other vaccine in history to use this was the Ebola vaccine they just made a couple of years ago, and it wasn't as major of an technique in the development. (Not that it wasn't careless, but that's another story.) It's interesting that the same techniques of gene-editing were condemned for use in humans as reckless due to it's unknown long-term affects. A Chinese scientist was jailed for 3 years for editing genes in babies. Additionally, the world has largely embraced non-GMO food and showed a preference in non-GMO eating with their purchasing power after decades of being told that genetically modified food would be the solution to mankind's food chain problems. What is GMO? Genetically modified organism. Their use in crops was promised to reduce pesticide use, increase crop yields, and provide the same nutritional value. Instead more pesticides are needed, they have led to the rise of "superweeds" that do not die when sprayed with herbicides (genetic mutation driven by it's growth in dirt containing decaying plant matter of modified crops), large numbers of people who grew up eating them have developed allergies or intolerances to these foods, and the nutritional value is often much lower including the amount of vital nutrients, minerals, and vitamins they contain.


That's an interesting diatribe against GMO foods that really doesn't have much bearing on vaccine development. And "the world has largely embraced non-GMO food and showed a preference in non-GMO eating with their purchasing power" is flatly untrue.
 

Bill in Atlanta

Well-Known Member
I think hospital usage is the biggest indicator for the virus, which is a main reason Disney is looking at that metric when determining when to open. Here in RI, that is basically the #1 indicator the governor is using as well. This also goes back to the original intention of flattening the curve, to not over run the hospital system.

Positive cases relies on how many tests you are doing. Positivity rate alone doesn't tell you much. But hospital usage, even with essentially 0 testing, will tell you just how many people are getting sick enough to seek medical attention, with a portion of those who need intensive care. Now obviously testing needs to occur to help determine exact number of cases and where a hotspot may pop up.
Precisely.

And hospitalization figures are quite encouraging.
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
Precisely.

And hospitalization figures are quite encouraging.


Indeed. Hospitalization rates are harder to find globally than case/death rates, but here is my state's (Ohio), which is fairly encouraging.
1589896820104.png


The last 3 weeks have shown fairly flat statistics, with a slight downward trend:
1589896920152.png


The periodicity of the data is interesting, as there must be some anomalies in reporting. You can clearly see it even on a world-wide scale:
1589897060154.png

From this, it is again good to see an overall downward trend in world-wide fatalities. you can dues that the daily numbers will increase again int he next 1-2 days before again decreasing.
 

DCBaker

Premium Member
"Researchers are finding evidence that patients who test positive for the coronavirus after recovering aren’t capable of transmitting the infection, and could have the antibodies that prevent them from falling sick again.

Scientists from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention studied 285 Covid-19 survivors who had tested positive for the coronavirus after their illness had apparently resolved, as indicated by a previous negative test result. The so-called re-positive patients weren’t found to have spread any lingering infection, and virus samples collected from them couldn’t be grown in culture, indicating the patients were shedding non-infectious or dead virus particles."

https://t.co/njNxIub67c?amp=1
 

Epcotbob

Well-Known Member
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.amp.html.

this was an interesting read I never knew about the flu in 1968 it seems quite similar numbers wise to what we are experiencing now and seems to imply that this will end when society wants it to end

Fascinating article! That’s been my contention all along, lIke it or not, decisions on the reopening of the economy will not be purely medical....nor should it be. Keeping everything closed presents a tremendous hardship on people, their livelihoods and ability to feed and house their families that eventually become a far greater cost on society than the virus itself. As time goes on, more and more people are coming to that realization.

This statement from the article is exactly what I think will happen:

One possibility, historians say, is that the coronavirus pandemic could end socially before it ends medically. People may grow so tired of the restrictions that they declare the pandemic over, even as the virus continues to smolder in the population and before a vaccine or effective treatment is found.
 

lisa12000

Well-Known Member
We have this issue in the uk atm with the media - because our cases are plateauing around the 3K mark - our testing has been ramped you and our positive case rate is at about 4% which is the lowest since March but still because our cases are not going down rapidly we have the blame game of people going out to much, the term covidiots trends most days and people saying that our slight easing of lockdown is causing cases not to go down (it was less than a week ago!) - we have public shaming not only by neighbours but by the police, our beauty and nature spots are available for use but the areas where they are have told people to stop away and they’re not wanted - we even have a senior minister for Scotland retweeting a sign going ‘Scotland’s closed so f*** off’ - this is despite our hospitalisations in the uk dropping and our death numbers dropping! We have the ongoing comparisons with Europe despite the fact we are one of a handful of countries that consistently report all setting deaths and have one of the most robust reporting systems in Europe if not the world!

Yes the uk have made massive errors in judgement on this - but the level of fear, paranoia, and sheer distrust and even hatred amongst fellow citizens makes me despair!
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I’m not attacking you personally... just growing extremely tired of this same old argument. And since we live here, I believe we have some say on the matter. If you listen to the briefings, we were literally told to expect this from the media after the reopening. Why? MUCH higher testing; including a mobile lab that does onsite testing and results the same day for entire long-term care facilities and nursing homes (including staff) all at once. So yes, our numbers have not surprisingly, gone up just as we were told they would. It’s not exactly shocking that the media likes to exclude context and important facts to meet a headline objective. It’s also nearly impossible for the reopening to have had a negative impact on our totals just yet. Could it be coming? Sure. That’s what we’re all waiting to see. As someone else mentioned above, it would seem we must sadly watch the death rate along with all of the other numbers. Again, not picking on you personally but it’s something that seems to be getting leveraged across the country and I wanted to give a different perspective. I even have my direct family calling me crazy for visiting city walk. Meanwhile, I felt 10 times better there vs Walmart or Lowe’s!
Testing in FL has gone up which is a good thing and with it the number positive has gone up. It makes it hard to gain an appreciation for whether there are more actual cases or just more testing. The good news is the amount of testing seems to be flattening out so if the ramp up in testing levels out then the number of new cases becomes more statistically relevant. Here’s the number of tests per week from the FL dashboard:

Week ending 5/2 88,517
Week ending 5/9 119,452 +35%
Week ending 5/16 123,117 +3%

Comparing 5/2 to 5/9 you can see the ramp up we all hear about, a 35% increase in testing performed. The week of 5/16 only had a 3% increase in testing week over week. If that trend continues and the testing rate stays consistent we should be able to go back to looking at the total number of new cases as an indicator of sickness spread. In a week or 2 we should have a better idea if that trend sticks.
 

VaderTron

Well-Known Member
I’m not attacking you personally... just growing extremely tired of this same old argument. And since we live here, I believe we have some say on the matter. If you listen to the briefings, we were literally told to expect this from the media after the reopening. Why? MUCH higher testing; including a mobile lab that does onsite testing and results the same day for entire long-term care facilities and nursing homes (including staff) all at once. So yes, our numbers have not surprisingly, gone up just as we were told they would. It’s not exactly shocking that the media likes to exclude context and important facts to meet a headline objective. It’s also nearly impossible for the reopening to have had a negative impact on our totals just yet. Could it be coming? Sure. That’s what we’re all waiting to see. As someone else mentioned above, it would seem we must sadly watch the death rate along with all of the other numbers. Again, not picking on you personally but it’s something that seems to be getting leveraged across the country and I wanted to give a different perspective. I even have my direct family calling me crazy for visiting city walk. Meanwhile, I felt 10 times better there vs Walmart or Lowe’s!
You conveniently ignored my post about deaths. You can't argue deaths. Florida had almost as many die in their state as all of the United States had fatalities from car accidents. Is this the time to stop wearing seatbelts, not look when we change lanes, or drive unsafe cars? No, it's not. Why remove safety restraints during a public health crisis? Makes just as much sense.
 

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
You conveniently ignored my post about deaths. You can't argue deaths. Florida had almost as many die in their state as all of the United States had fatalities from car accidents. Is this the time to stop wearing seatbelts, not look when we change lanes, or drive unsafe cars? No, it's not. Why remove safety restraints during a public health crisis? Makes just as much sense.

It is important to drill down on the cases and deaths to get the full picture and how and where these numbers are coming from. If you just look at cases and deaths at a state level, you don’t get an understanding of the best way to deal with these.

For example, if a state gets a surge in cases, they need to determine where specifically the surge is coming from and how to handle it.
 
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