Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The timeline on that study of over 25,000 people was 7 months.

which means if they were infected last year...they’re off the grid now. Math.

exposure is not the same as the vaccine...which luckily big pharma stakes their reputation (aka profits) on

 

[havoc315]

if all 17,000,000 line up in sequence...

how’d that go with the rest of the population?

No... 600,000 is if 50% go in the first 2 weeks... and that's consistent with the rest of the population, where about 50% got as quickly as they could.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

It's a disingenuous comparison.

You may not have meant it here, but it reads like: Nothing is ever 100%, so here's a comparison that's outlandishly different and we don't do that, so we shouldn't to anything here. There's no sense with any goal once 100% isn't possible.

That may not have been what you were trying to convey, but that's how many people heard it.

It's the same argument we hear when people talk about going from "large spread" to "small spread" and people say "it'll never go away, there's no difference between large and small spread, it doesn't matter". One group wants to reduce impacts, the other is saying the impacts don't matter and are fine.

We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Keep vaccinating everybody. As many people as we can get. Cajole, persuade, and bribe if necessary.

I was responding to someone *specifically in the context of lifting restrictions.* The question is not whether we are "good enough" to close up shop and say we're done here, no need to vaccinate anyone else. The question is whether we're "good enough" to lift mask mandates outdoors, whether we're "good enough" to lift mask mandates for vaccinated people indoors, whether we're "good enough" to have housekeeping in our hotel rooms, etc.

I'm not talking about "good enough" on the final destination, I'm talking "good enough" for certain milestones along the way.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No... 600,000 is if 50% go in the first 2 weeks... and that's consistent with the rest of the population, where about 50% got as quickly as they could.

that’s “half full”

unfortunately “half empty” is documented to be quite dumb

 

[sullyinMT]

Total population or just adults? Shouldn't the goal be to drop restrictions when the situation warrants it? So you think even if cases flatline and deaths are nearly zero keep the restrictions anyway? To get to 75% of Americans vaccinated we would need 97% of adults to go. There’s no way to hit that level until all kids are eligible which is probably towards the end of the year. I’m all for setting a reasonable vaccination target that will likely lead to cases and stats being good, but it’s a balancing act. “Good enough“ to get the cases way down is the goal.

For example, Israel right now is at 56% of their population fully vaccinated (60% with at least 1 shot) but they had 12 cases in the whole country yesterday and 5 deaths over the past week. Should they keep the few restrictions they have left anyway until 75% of the population is vaccinated? Seems like it’s time to roll them back and see how it goes to me.

Once they approve the 12-15 set, and Israel hits whatever their number is in a month, why would they not at least try dropping whatever is left? Just like was said earlier, at some point the response is a step behind.

 

[Smooth]

I'm just stating facts from a legitimate scientific study. I think these facts are something to consider... not totally dismiss.

 

[sullyinMT]

We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Keep vaccinating everybody. As many people as we can get. Cajole, persuade, and bribe if necessary.

I was responding to someone *specifically in the context of lifting restrictions.* The question is not whether we are "good enough" to close up shop and say we're done here, no need to vaccinate anyone else. The question is whether we're "good enough" to lift mask mandates outdoors, whether we're "good enough" to lift mask mandates for vaccinated people indoors, whether we're "good enough" to have housekeeping in our hotel rooms, etc.

I'm not talking about "good enough" on the final destination, I'm talking "good enough" for certain milestones along the way.

For locations that have reached a level of “good enough” for the next step, I agree. It’s why I support targets like PA and OC, FL have set.

 

[ParentsOf4]

We were also talking about adults getting to 70% not total. The 16 and 17 year olds are in your total number. Not a huge difference but part of it and that will grow in the next few weeks.

I thought we were discussing trends and what that meant to getting to 70%.

Sorry if I misunderstood.

 

[correcaminos]

Almost 48 hours after my second Moderna vaccine and basically had the same side effects as the first shot. Sore arm and a bit of fatigue. Never got the chills, body aches or fever that seems like most people experienced.

I'd counter that based on findings most do not, than do. I always say go in expecting the best but don't plan for anything needed to be done just in case.

 

[bryanfze55]

natural immunity wears off...and mutations could render it all ineffective.

the goal should be 99% and always should have been

STOP shouting what YOU wants because it’s CONVENIENT and LAZY and use COMMON SENSE or you won’t get to GO to AULANI as MUCH as you WANT

Not sure you’re being logical about this man. You can’t change the idiots. Without mandatory vaccines, how do you get to 99%? If you want mandatory vaccines then say that, but just saying 99% is the goal is an emotional conclusion rather than a logical one. A better marketing campaign or another “program” doesn’t get there. A hundred dollar bribe isn’t full proof. Tell us really - how do you get to 99%?

 

[Weather_Lady]

Once they approve the 12-15 set, and Israel hits whatever their number is in a month, why would they not at least try dropping whatever is left? Just like was said earlier, at some point the response is a step behind.

12-15 is now approved: just booked appointments for my 13 and 14-year-olds this morning.

I'm stoked. Back in January and February when DH and I were anxiously waiting to be eligible (as a part-time home health aide and a severe asthmatic, respectively) and then competing in "fast finger" challenges online to try and get appointments for the few precious doses that were available at local clinics for our elderly loved ones and later for ourselves, we never dreamed we'd be able to get the whole family, teens and all, fully vaccinated before the summer.

 

[sullyinMT]

12-15 is now approved: just booked appointments for my 13 and 14-year-olds this morning.

I'm stoked. Back in January and February when DH and I were anxiously waiting to be eligible (as a part-time home health aide and a severe asthmatic, respectively) and then competing in "fast finger" challenges online to try and get appointments for the few precious doses that were available at local clinics, we never dreamed we'd be able to get the whole family fully vaccinated before the summer.

In line with my 13yo now for a walk-in! I was referring specifically to Israel and their remaining mitigations.

 

[correcaminos]

You should approach someone in charge with your "shut up and do it" campaign idea. I'm sure it will really move the needle.

Honestly for some it would work. For others nope. Each person has individual hang ups and needs to be treated as such. Not one method will work for all. For some adult kids, their parents saying it absolutely did work. But obviously not a universally good idea to do. Just like challenging someone to do it like in the article won't worn. A friend who lost their spouse to covid and had covid themselves had a whole other set of issues etc

 

[Weather_Lady]

In line with my 13yo now for a walk-in! I was referring specifically to Israel and their remaining mitigations.

Oh, sorry! I misread your post. Good luck with your walk-in!

 

[Parker in NYC]

12-15 is now approved: just booked appointments for my 13 and 14-year-olds this morning.

I'm stoked. Back in January and February when DH and I were anxiously waiting to be eligible (as a part-time home health aide and a severe asthmatic, respectively) and then competing in "fast finger" challenges online to try and get appointments for the few precious doses that were available at local clinics for our elderly loved ones and later for ourselves, we never dreamed we'd be able to get the whole family, teens and all, fully vaccinated before the summer.

Good!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not sure you’re being logical about this man. You can’t change the idiots. Without mandatory vaccines, how do you get to 99%? If you want mandatory vaccines then say that, but just saying 99% is the goal is an emotional conclusion rather than a logical one. A better marketing campaign or another “program” doesn’t get there. A hundred dollar bribe isn’t full proof. Tell us really - how do you get to 99%?

I’m stating what should be the goal.

not lowering the standards to accept what likely will be.

i also am far beyond suffering fools. Patience has limits.

if you know you likely won’t reach your goal...why set it at 70%

the C students will not inherit the earth

 

[mmascari]

Why are we classifying the goal as 70% of adults?

I agree, I really dislike that the metric is "of adults". Just as bad when it's "of eligible". It should just be "of population", no need to do fancy math on what that means. If that means the target is different, that's fine just say what that target is.

We were also talking about adults getting to 70% not total. The 16 and 17 year olds are in your total number. Not a huge difference but part of it and that will grow in the next few weeks.

A super good reason why the metric should be "of people". When Thursday's new vaccination number comes out, not all of it will advance the goal of "of adults". The whole number wasn't in the past either, but it'll be worse now.

Yes, there will be a noticeable bump in first doses over the next 1-2 weeks. But may not be easy to separate how much of that is just the newly eligible 12-15 year olds, versus adults.

So daily vaccination rates are definitely about to improve. But how much of that is adults, remains to be seen.

Making it harder to know where we are.

People and the news WILL confuse the two. We'll see lots of comments and news stories on how many were vaccinated and how that gets us closer to the goal, but it'll be over counting the daily contribution.

Total population or just adults? Shouldn't the goal be to drop restrictions when the situation warrants it? So you think even if cases flatline and deaths are nearly zero keep the restrictions anyway? To get to 75% of Americans vaccinated we would need 97% of adults to go. There’s no way to hit that level until all kids are eligible which is probably towards the end of the year. I’m all for setting a reasonable vaccination target that will likely lead to cases and stats being good, but it’s a balancing act. “Good enough“ to get the cases way down is the goal.

Which is why everyone using "of population" would have been better.

Better yet would have been metrics based on spread, but we've all determined that's to hard and to abstract. Settling on Vaccinated was always a proxy. As such, it was also always more conservative than it needs to be. It would be so much worse to set a proxy measure that's to aggressive and doesn't actually lead to the spread reduction. Especially as the spread reduction will lag the vaccinated metric.

Let's say we told everyone that 35% was enough (to exaggerate wildly) and then when got there, there were still 500+ people dying everyday. There would be outcry, calls of useless science, how could the number be so far off, we cannot trust anything anymore. It would be bad. So instead, the metric is conservative and errors on the other side. We'll probably get the outcome we want first before we hit it. But, it's only "probably" not "definitely" and nobody giving a target wants that risk. Combine in all the "of adults" and other fudge factors and the target is going to error on the side of even more conservative.

Even in the reporting of the "70% of adults by July 4" target, the assumptions of what that really means are all over the place. Many will be disappointed if getting there doesn't mean "everything is dropped". No matter if that's what was meant or not.

 

[Patcheslee]

DD is scheduled for after school today. Plenty appointments still showing. Boss already approved my vacation day for tomorrow on the off chance she doesn't feel well. I can just come in tomorrow and cancel it if she feels fine. 2nd shot will be at exactly 3 weeks vs being delayed like many places have been doing around here, school will be done so no issue with missing.

 

[DisneyFan32]

By fall/winter, everything's going to back to normal as by then we will won't need masks anymore. No more surges / spikes anymore thanks to vaccinations.

 

[DCBaker]

A sign of things coming back - the WDW Guest Service Twitter account is back.