Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[CaptainAmerica]

Why are we classifying the goal as 70% of adults? You do realize that’s only about 56% of the population right? Just because kids can’t get vaccinated doesn’t mean they can’t get Covid. If the goal is to stamp out Covid with herd immunity we need to get to 70% of the entire population. If we were only relying on adults that would require approximately 87.5% vaccination among adults, now with 12+ it means 82% vaccinations among eligible participants.

Just because OC Florida is defying their goal as vaccinated adults does not mean the CDC is.

And to head off the counter argument right away, here’s national Covid Cases broken down by age, you will notice that children are still getting the same amount of Covid cases daily that they were at the national peak, only adult cases have lessened.

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We DO NOT need to VACCINATE 70% of the population. That has never been the case. 70% is the target of vaccinated population PLUS natural immunity through previous infection.

The goal should be "vaccinate as many people as possible, period." But if you're working timelines in your head, there's absolutely no reason why you should be targeting a total population vaccination rate of 70%.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The ones that are worried are the ones who had contacted covid and possibly are worried about side effects from getting the vaccine. My brother's friend a healthy guy in his early 50s no underlying health conditions tested positive after a business trip. He quarantined with symptoms and collapsed and was rushed to the ER then covid ward for several days . When he got his first covid shot two months later he said he felt like he experienced covid again and was bedridden for several days but not sent to a hospital. Doubts about getting the second shot.

differences being first time it was trying to get him...second time it was teaching him to fight back

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I didn't think virtually anyone had any side effects after the first shot other than a possible sore arm.

There's some anecdotal evidence that people who have *had* COVID are more likely to react to the first shot in a similar way to other people on their second shot, but I don't think there's any data on that.

I had a sore arm for about 24 hours both times, absolutely nothing besides that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We DO NOT need to VACCINATE 70% of the population. That has never been the case. 70% is the target of vaccinated population PLUS natural immunity through previous infection.

The goal should be "vaccinate as many people as possible, period." But if you're working timelines in your head, there's absolutely no reason why you should be targeting a total population vaccination rate of 70%.

natural immunity wears off...and mutations could render it all ineffective.

the goal should be 99% and always should have been

STOP shouting what YOU wants because it’s CONVENIENT and LAZY and use COMMON SENSE or you won’t get to GO to AULANI as MUCH as you WANT

 

[disneygeek90]

There's some anecdotal evidence that people who have *had* COVID are more likely to react to the first shot in a similar way to other people on their second shot, but I don't think there's any data on that.

I had a sore arm for about 24 hours both times, absolutely nothing besides that.

I had a mild headache basically all of day 2 after the second and a sore arm for a couple days just around the injection area but that was it.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

natural immunity wears off...and mutations could render it all ineffective.

the goal should be 99% and always should have been

STOP shouting what YOU wants because it’s CONVENIENT and LAZY and use COMMON SENSE or you won’t get to GO to AULANI as MUCH as you WANT

I got my shots and tell everyone they should do the same. I'm still going to correct the doom-and-gloomers who don't understand the math.

 

[GoofGoof]

we actually could have a much better job. And we all know it...and nobody will admit it.

shut up and do it. “National” program. Or if you want to refight the war - “statewide initiative”

...what times the parade?

good god...why are we trying to make it “easier” on the wealthiest, most opinionated, most entitled citizenry in the history of the planet?

...aren’t we ashamed that this is a “given”?

It’s not about making it easier or harder to reach a goal it just is what it is. We can sit around and complain about the people who aren’t vaccinated but that changes nothing. If anything it only hurts. We will most likely reach a level of vaccination that is “good enough” to get cases way down and get us to the finish line and this will happen despite the people actively resisting the vaccines and their supporters. If everyone got on board with both mitigation efforts and vaccinations from the start of the vaccination process we would already be at herd immunity and cases would be near zero and all Covid restrictions would already be gone. But we chose another path. We will still get there...eventually. This way takes more time. It is what it is.

 

[DKampy]

we’re they concentrated in pockets? That doesn’t make that necessarily incorrect.

I would find it hard to believe any county here has 100 new cases per 100,000....I check the cases every day here in Wi including the new cases in every county... we have been on a downward trend... and I have not noticed any counties having more trouble then the others

 

[Heppenheimer]

I actually heard this out of crew member two days ago. He said in a Monday morning, "you guys need to get it so I don't have to".
I do believe that there is a huge factor too. I've never seen so many rough and tough grown men turn into marshmallows when their is talk of shots and needles.

During my army career, one of my duties for awhile was to perform sick call for the marines at artillery AIT training. I don't know what it is about the type of people drawn to the USMC, but despite overall being some of the toughest young men and women you'll ever meet, there seemed to be an especially high fear of needles in this subgroup.

 

[GoofGoof]

The difference in charts most likely is explained by the following note in the CDC charts that I posted:

Bars shown in the darker blue shade represent the most recent five days of reporting where the number of vaccine administrations might be impacted the most due to delays in reporting. All reported numbers might change over time as historical data are reported to the CDC.​

As a result, the numbers from the tables you reference reflect vaccination data that occurred across multiple days. In other words, the table you are referencing on (for example) May 5 represents some people who were vaccinated on May 4, some people who were vaccinated on May 3, etc. The CDC updates the daily numbers as reports of vaccinations trickle in to the CDC.

As the title of the CDC graph that I am referencing explicitly states, the graph represents "Daily Count of People Receiving Dose 1 Reported to the CDC by Date Administered":

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We were also talking about adults getting to 70% not total. The 16 and 17 year olds are in your total number. Not a huge difference but part of it and that will grow in the next few weeks.

 

[sullyinMT]

I actually heard this out of crew member two days ago. He said in a Monday morning, "you guys need to get it so I don't have to".
I do believe that there is a huge factor too. I've never seen so many rough and tough grown men turn into marshmallows when their is talk of shots and needles.

This is the best use of emoji, ever.

 

[Jrb1979]

It's crazy to me that "good enough" is what most are settling for. Our Chief medical officer put a goal of 75% of Canadians to have their first dose before most restrictions are dropped.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I would find it hard to believe any county here has 100 new cases per 100,000....I check the cases every day here in Wi including the new cases in every county... we have been on a downward trend... and I have not noticed any counties having more trouble then the others

maybe not...but it isn’t necessarily impossible

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s not about making it easier or harder to reach a goal it just is what it is. We can sit around and complain about the people who aren’t vaccinated but that changes nothing. If anything it only hurts. We will most likely reach a level of vaccination that is “good enough” to get cases way down and get us to the finish line and this will happen despite the people actively resisting the vaccines and their supporters. If everyone got on board with both mitigation efforts and vaccinations from the start of the vaccination process we would already be at herd immunity and cases would be near zero and all Covid restrictions would already be gone. But we chose another path. We will still get there...eventually. This way takes more time. It is what it is.

I hear that all the time at work...and it’s 100% to cover a screwup, omission or shortcoming

 

[Tom P.]

There's some anecdotal evidence that people who have *had* COVID are more likely to react to the first shot in a similar way to other people on their second shot, but I don't think there's any data on that.

I had a sore arm for about 24 hours both times, absolutely nothing besides that.

Same here. Sore arm and nothing else. And I've had Covid.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

It's crazy to me that "good enough" is what most are settling for. Our Chief medical officer put a goal of 75% of Canadians to have their first dose before most restrictions are dropped.

"Good enough" is how every risk-based decision is made.

Roads would be safer if the speed limit was 5 MPH everywhere, but we've determined that 65 MPH on most freeways is good enough.

 

[havoc315]

We were also talking about adults getting to 70% not total. The 16 and 17 year olds are in your total number. Not a huge difference but part of it and that will grow in the next few weeks.

Yes, there will be a noticeable bump in first doses over the next 1-2 weeks. But may not be easy to separate how much of that is just the newly eligible 12-15 year olds, versus adults.

So daily vaccination rates are definitely about to improve. But how much of that is adults, remains to be seen.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

"Good enough" is how every risk-based decision is made.

Roads would be safer if the speed limit was 5 MPH everywhere, but we've determined that 65 MPH on most freeways is good enough.

strawman when you’re talking about a specific event ...with a specific solution and known consequences.

this isn’t an exercise in the hypothetical.

 

[havoc315]

"Good enough" is how every risk-based decision is made.

Roads would be safer if the speed limit was 5 MPH everywhere, but we've determined that 65 MPH on most freeways is good enough.

I agree with you. A good example being some schools and teachers who have insisted schools can't be open if there is even minimal theoretical risk. I've long argued this is absurd.

At the same time, I do believe some localities and states have set their "good enough" Covid numbers way too low.

I use Israel as a model given their success. They got rid of their outdoor mask mandates -- and I completely think it's time to do the same in the US. But they are keeping their indoor mask mandate, at 0.4 cases per 100,000. They are waiting to go even lower.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, there will be a noticeable bump in first doses over the next 1-2 weeks. But may not be easy to separate how much of that is just the newly eligible 12-15 year olds, versus adults.

So daily vaccination rates are definitely about to improve. But how much of that is adults, remains to be seen.

Pfizer authorization brought 17,000,000 more into the pool.

That’s about 5% of the total population