Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, there will be a noticeable bump in first doses over the next 1-2 weeks. But may not be easy to separate how much of that is just the newly eligible 12-15 year olds, versus adults.

So daily vaccination rates are definitely about to improve. But how much of that is adults, remains to be seen.

Pfizer authorization brought 17,000,000 more into the pool.

That’s about 5% of the total population

 

[CaptainAmerica]

strawman when you’re talking about a specific event ...with a specific solution and known consequences.

this isn’t an exercise in the hypothetical.

It's not a strawman. Even the *vaccines themselves* are "good enough." Nothing is 100% and never will be.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I agree with you. A good example being some schools and teachers who have insisted schools can't be open if there is even minimal theoretical risk. I've long argued this is absurd.

At the same time, I do believe some localities and states have set their "good enough" Covid numbers way too low.

I use Israel as a model given their success. They got rid of their outdoor mask mandates -- and I completely think it's time to do the same in the US. But they are keeping their indoor mask mandate, at 0.4 cases per 100,000. They are waiting to go even lower.

I think that’s likely what we’re going to see in the next couple weeks. Outside masks will be gone.

bad messaging again. Should have started transitioning to “masks inside” as progress by now

 

[havoc315]

Pfizer authorization brought 17,000,000 more into the pool.

That’s about 5% of the total population

Yup... so if 50% head out to get first doses in the next 2 weeks, that's an extra 600,000 first doses per day.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yup... so if 50% head out to get first doses in the next 2 weeks, that's an extra 600,000 first doses per day.

correct...but not enough to reverse the downward trend in vaccine tallies

 

[mmascari]

Edit: here is a chart showing Israel hit 55% of the population with 1 shot on March 1 and the table below shows the start of their big decline right after that point.
View attachment 557186

As much hope as that chart brings, it's also depressing.

The Israel line: It's steep. Blitzes to 20%, struggles for an instant, then continues to rocket to 55%, starts to slow dramatically, crests the 60% level and practically flatlines like it hit a wall of resistance and can barely grow anymore.

The US line: It's a slow start, plodding along, eventually picks up some acceleration, perhaps a fast walk and works itself up to a speeding car, but never a rocket, crosses 40% and begins to slow, not a dramatic crest like Israel but a deceleration started 10 points earlier, imagining that line extending further out on the same curve, it's going to take a very long time before they meet.

 

[havoc315]

I think that’s likely what we’re going to see in the next couple weeks. Outside masks will be gone.

bad messaging again. Should have started transitioning to “masks inside” as progress by now

Being slow and a step behind has been a hallmark of the pandemic response. We ramped up testing and mitigation much too slowly. Many places didn't put in mask mandates until after their population was getting hit hard.
And now that things are improving, while some localities have dropped mitigation too quickly, on a Federal level, the recommendations are a step behind and slow.
Basically... it's getting close to the time to drop everything except indoor mask mandates and some close-contact activities. (for example, I wouldn't bring back indoor character meets at WDW yet).

 

[havoc315]

correct...but not enough to reverse the downward trend in vaccine tallies

Another 600,000 daily first doses will give quite a bump.

 

[drizgirl]

How a small Texas town doubled its COVID-19 vaccination rate in a month as the state’s rate declined

Mount Pleasant in northeast Texas lags behind the state in its vaccination rate, but the town is boosting its numbers by mobilizing churches, nonprofits and other trusted community leaders to help overcome residents’ fears and doubts.

www.texastribune.org

This all goes so much further than all the insults being flung around.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Another 600,000 daily first doses will give quite a bump.

if all 17,000,000 line up in sequence...

how’d that go with the rest of the population?

 

[GoofGoof]

It's crazy to me that "good enough" is what most are settling for. Our Chief medical officer put a goal of 75% of Canadians to have their first dose before most restrictions are dropped.

Total population or just adults? Shouldn't the goal be to drop restrictions when the situation warrants it? So you think even if cases flatline and deaths are nearly zero keep the restrictions anyway? To get to 75% of Americans vaccinated we would need 97% of adults to go. There’s no way to hit that level until all kids are eligible which is probably towards the end of the year. I’m all for setting a reasonable vaccination target that will likely lead to cases and stats being good, but it’s a balancing act. “Good enough“ to get the cases way down is the goal.

For example, Israel right now is at 56% of their population fully vaccinated (60% with at least 1 shot) but they had 12 cases in the whole country yesterday and 5 deaths over the past week. Should they keep the few restrictions they have left anyway until 75% of the population is vaccinated? Seems like it’s time to roll them back and see how it goes to me.

 

[drizgirl]

we actually could have a much better job. And we all know it...and nobody will admit it.

shut up and do it. “National” program. Or if you want to refight the war - “statewide initiative”

...what times the parade?

You should approach someone in charge with your "shut up and do it" campaign idea. I'm sure it will really move the needle.

 

[Epcotfan21]

I didn't think virtually anyone had any side effects after the first shot other than a possible sore arm.

Both of my colleagues that got Moderna had fever and chills after their second shot. Heck, the pharmacist at Publix even told me that most of his clients were reporting Covid like symptoms after their second Moderna shot and told me to anticipate that.

 

[Smooth]

84% of people who have had COVID and recovered have low risk of reinfection. 93% have lower risk of symptomatic infection.

 

[HarperRose]

we’re they concentrated in pockets? That doesn’t make that necessarily incorrect.

No.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Being slow and a step behind has been a hallmark of the pandemic response. We ramped up testing and mitigation much too slowly. Many places didn't put in mask mandates until after their population was getting hit hard.
And now that things are improving, while some localities have dropped mitigation too quickly, on a Federal level, the recommendations are a step behind and slow.
Basically... it's getting close to the time to drop everything except indoor mask mandates and some close-contact activities. (for example, I wouldn't bring back indoor character meets at WDW yet).

and I think you could get far more than the standard 60/40 split to go along with that.

we tend to be susceptible to groupthink...you just have to push it in the right/convenient direction.

 

[mmascari]

It's not a strawman. Even the *vaccines themselves* are "good enough." Nothing is 100% and never will be.

It's a disingenuous comparison.

You may not have meant it here, but it reads like: Nothing is ever 100%, so here's a comparison that's outlandishly different and we don't do that, so we shouldn't to anything here. There's no sense with any goal once 100% isn't possible.

That may not have been what you were trying to convey, but that's how many people heard it.

It's the same argument we hear when people talk about going from "large spread" to "small spread" and people say "it'll never go away, there's no difference between large and small spread, it doesn't matter". One group wants to reduce impacts, the other is saying the impacts don't matter and are fine.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

84% of people who have had COVID and recovered have low risk of reinfection. 93% have lower risk of symptomatic infection.

there’s no proven timeline/window on those numbers. Vax are still a much more probable route.

 

[Smooth]

The timeline on that study of over 25,000 people was 7 months.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's a disingenuous comparison.

You may not have meant it here, but it reads like: Nothing is ever 100%, so here's a comparison that's outlandishly different and we don't do that, so we shouldn't to anything here. There's no sense with any goal once 100% isn't possible.

That may not have been what you were trying to convey, but that's how many people heard it.

It's the same argument we hear when people talk about going from "large spread" to "small spread" and people say "it'll never go away, there's no difference between large and small spread, it doesn't matter". One group wants to reduce impacts, the other is saying the impacts don't matter and are fine.

yep...

and that’s been a crutch for the lazy/entitled this whole time.

i’m not saying Capt did that intentionally...most likely no...

but the “this is so tedious...what’s the minimum?” Tact has been an epic fail and caused a lot of damage from the start.