Chapek's comments - he doesn't want anyone on this board at WDW any more

[Tony the Tigger]

Do you? I asked if you believe they were leading not if you liked the direction its going…

Yes.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Oh I don’t disagree with the diminished appeal…

But they never updated it. I am saying that would have been the way to go or another completely new movie type ride…not Mickey.

That was my point. What would they update? You can't go back in history and change what made Hollywood what it became. How would they give it a back story that anyone would have accepted? Or didn't have to be updated every time a new movie came out. What little extras (i.e. the mob or the western scene)? I suppose they could have put in a Sonny Corleone toll booth scene or a Blazing Saddle's, beans around the camp fire scene! "Mongo just a pawn in game of life." You know damn well that Johnny Depp would have had to be in there someplace. Instead of the yellow brick road there could be a life sized Black Pearl. Savvy? What's there now, at least, is updated technology and far more interesting than just another set of individual movie scenes. Plus Mickey Mouse finally got his own attraction.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That was my point. What would they update? How would the give it a back story that anyone would have accepted? Or didn't have to be updated every time a new movie came out. What little extras (i.e. the mob or the western scene)? I suppose they could have put a Sonny Corleone toll booth scene or a Blazing Saddle, beans around the camp fire scene! "Mongo just a pawn in game of life." You know damn well that Johnny Depp would have had to be in there someplace. Instead of the yellow brick road there could be a life sized Black Pearl. Savvy? What is there now, at least, is more updated technology and far more interesting than just another set of individual movie scenes. Plus Mickey Mouse finally got his own attraction.

It would not have to be AA scenes…they could have done a new mix of technology.

But what’s done is done

 

[Goofyernmost]

It would not have to be AA scenes…they could have don’t a new mix of technology.

But what’s done is done

I suppose, but I am a believer that for everything there is a season, and that one went well beyond its time. I chalk that up as one of the few things that they changed that was an improvement for this time. Other's mileage may vary.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I suppose, but I am a believer that for everything there is a season, and that one went well beyond its time. I chalk that up as one of the few things that they changed that was an improvement for this time. Other's mileage may vary.

Perhaps…

It it also reinforces the point they need net adds…not replacements.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Perhaps…

It it also reinforces the point they need net adds…not replacements.

So one new attraction, separately built and another that almost no one would go to, is not what I would call the answer to the problem. If both were popular OK, otherwise it accomplished nothing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So one new attraction, separately built and another that almost no one would go to, is not what I would call the answer to the problem. If both were popular OK, otherwise it accomplished nothing.

Ride capacity is lacking in every park…that’s why their funky queue systems have been moving the deck chairs around the titanic for over a decade.

It’s not a matter of more “high demand” headliners…it’s a matter of more middle road stuff to “eat butts”

 

[el_super]

I think the Fed is going to hike us into a deep recession by the end of 2023 to try and get inflation under control. When you have stagflation, that's an environment to get people to reconsider their discretionary purchases if I've ever seen one.

If that happens, Chapek's current plans could fail in a big way.

I would think if they are truly trying to change the perception of their product, that a recession might actually end up helping them out. Much in the same way that people have said the pandemic helped them accelerate their plans.

Convincing people that the product is worth more, means somehow getting them to spend less time in the parks at the price they are currently paying. A recession could help with that.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Ride capacity is lacking in every park…that’s why their funky queue systems have been moving the deck chairs around the titanic for over a decade.

It’s not a matter of more “high demand” headliners…it’s a matter of more middle road stuff to “eat butts”

Yes, but it wasn't eating butts even with a limited choice. An attraction that can handle 1500 people an hour and is only packing in 500 will not really help enough to be noticeable. The 500 was giving it the benefit of the doubt. One of the times that I rode it towards the end, it only had 4 people, including me and I don't remember more then 50 at any given time back then. In the beginning I remember two completely full trains, the massive indoor switch back was full and the line doubled around to the entrance.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, but it wasn't eating butts even with a limited choice. An attraction that can handle 1500 people an hour and is only packing in 500 will not really help enough to be noticeable. The 500 was giving it the benefit of the doubt. One of the times that I rode it towards the end, it only had 4 people, including me and I don't remember more then 50 at any given time back then. In the beginning I remember two completely full trains, the massive indoor switch back was full and the line doubled around to the entrance.

Right…but they never added/changed a scene since 1989.

It was a great ride….but it needed a change. My point Is that rather tiny, under equipped park needed something better there AND the Mickey ride.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I would think if they are truly trying to change the perception of their product, that a recession might actually end up helping them out. Much in the same way that people have said the pandemic helped them accelerate their plans.

Convincing people that the product is worth more, means somehow getting them to spend less time in the parks at the price they are currently paying. A recession could help with that.

Recessions hit the travel industry first and hardest.

It’s a completely frivolous/disposable expense and causes the “least pain” to alter/downsize/eliminate.

Recessions have never been good for Disney…even though they have been wise in managing them for the most part.

They’ve always been good for the CUSTOMER.

Which is counter intuitive, but true. It’s why Disney is unique…but they don’t cover that until a much later chapter in the textbook.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Right…but they never added/changed a scene since 1989.

It was a great ride….but it needed a change. My point Is that rather tiny, under equipped park needed something better there AND the Mickey ride.

It wouldn't have changed the message or saved the ride. It was the concept that wore out not the scenes. They remained the movies that originally made Hollywood.

 

[Lilofan]

Recessions hit the travel industry first and hardest.

It’s a completely frivolous/disposable expense and causes the “least pain” to alter/downsize/eliminate.

Recessions have never been good for Disney…even though they have been wise in managing them for the most part.

They’ve always been good for the CUSTOMER.

Which is counter intuitive, but true. It’s why Disney is unique…but they don’t cover that until a much later chapter in the textbook.

Recessions fare well for example , Dollar Tree stores where a number of customers will do their shopping. Whoever knew DT stock is up 10,000% since its inception in 1995.

 

[monothingie]

I think the Fed is going to hike us into a deep recession by the end of 2023 to try and get inflation under control. When you have stagflation, that's an environment to get people to reconsider their discretionary purchases if I've ever seen one.

If that happens, Chapek's current plans could fail in a big way.

The people most affected by any type of financial down turn have already been effectively weeded out of the guest mix at Disney Parks.

Initiated with Iger and accelerated with Baldy Bob, their high margin guest strategy seems to be insulating them quite well from the current economic dumpster fire.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Recessions fare well for example , Dollar Tree stores where a number of customers will do their shopping. Whoever knew DT stock is up 10,000% since its inception in 1995.

That’s something being wholly ignored in ‘Merica…

Dollar general’s CEO was talking about this last week…

Their typical median income shopper was about $40,000 annually prior…
What’s they strongest growing group? $75,000-$100,000

Is that a good thing? No…it is not. There are bigtime cracks in the damn.

Disney - contrary to what they’re telling S&P and Moody’s - is vulnerable.

 

[networkpro]

Disney - contrary to what they’re telling S&P and Moody’s - is vulnerable.

It is when you compare its gross margin 40% to its competitor's average in the industry 72%, 5 year gross margin average 51 vs 68%, and even worse EBITDA Margin 14 vs 24%. Organizationally, they are underperforming in spite of higher per capita earnings per customer. In spite of all the virtue signalling, they have too much management not producing products or product delivery.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It is when you compare its gross margin 40% to its competitor's average in the industry 72%, 5 year gross margin average 51 vs 68%, and even worse EBITDA Margin 14 vs 24%. Organizationally, they are underperforming in spite of higher per capita earnings per customer. In spite of all the virtue signalling, they have too much management not producing products or product delivery.

Well…back when real numbers mattered…

Disneys strength was never that it was “high yield”. It was consistent, resilient and provided incomparable brand value/loyalty

So managements job first and foremost should be to maintain that…right?

 

[networkpro]

Well…back when real numbers mattered…

Disneys strength was never that it was “high yield”. It was consistent, resilient and provided incomparable brand value/loyalty

So managements job first and foremost should be to maintain that…right?

And not creating more levels of management (aka overhead) while convenient, only subtracts from the bottom line.

 

[el_super]

Recessions have never been good for Disney…

Sure.... but what if... no?

They are all but saying that their product is undervalued and under-priced right now. I could definitely see the lesson being learned from 2008 was that deep discounting has long term impacts that need to be carefully considered prior to being implemented. At Disneyland, the no-interest financing of Annual Passes was a huge mistake that continues to this day, because the audience has just grown to expect that level of discount.

A recession might give them the opportunity to "reset" things again. Offer a kind of short term discounting program that can easily be discontinued, but also encourages fewer visits and more specifically repeat visits. Use it to convince the people who want to pay the least that they really don't want to come for a couple years.

And then when they ARE ready to come back, three or four or five years later, maybe they will be willing to pay more.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sure.... but what if... no?

They are all but saying that their product is undervalued and under-priced right now. I could definitely see the lesson being learned from 2008 was that deep discounting has long term impacts that need to be carefully considered prior to being implemented. At Disneyland, the no-interest financing of Annual Passes was a huge mistake that continues to this day, because the audience has just grown to expect that level of discount.

A recession might give them the opportunity to "reset" things again. Offer a kind of short term discounting program that can easily be discontinued, but also encourages fewer visits and more specifically repeat visits. Use it to convince the people who want to pay the least that they really don't want to come for a couple years.

And then when they ARE ready to come back, three or four or five years later, maybe they will be willing to pay more.

First you have to understand what Disney actually did in the recession of 2008 in Orlando.