Looking at the total number of points sold by Disney Vacation Club from 2011 on, it is very apparent that there is a distinct downward trend in the number of points being sold by DVC year over year.
Over the same period, the cost per point to purchase direct from DVC has been going up and the point charts for the most recent DVC resorts show point inflation (it costs more points to book a reservation than it does at older resorts).
The inflated point charts and the falling quantity of points being sold also indicates a decline in the number of new DVC members that Disney Vacation Development is pulling in each year.
This seems to signal a shift in the sales strategy for DVC when compared to prior years. They are less focused on a volume business (more points at a lower price) and more focused on a smaller volume business at a higher price.
So, even though they are selling less points, they have a greater profit margin on every sale. Their strategy of converting existing hotel rooms into DVC units (at PVB and likely WL) reduces capital expenditures - decreasing the cost of the goods they are selling, resulting in a higher profit margin.
Perhaps their options for building more DVC units at WDW are growing smaller - at least in terms of the "low hanging fruit" where they can add DVC onto existing Deluxe resorts - and they realize their volume business is not sustainable, or at least not the best approach.
Look at the charts below and chime in with your thoughts.
Point sales fell from 2.47 million in 2011 to 1.70 million in 2014.
Data from Wil Lovato @ DVCNews.com
Here is a more detailed breakdown of DVC Direct Sales from Jul 2010 through June 2015. I find this interesting.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
For the last half of 2010, BLT dominated sales.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
In 2011, while BLT was the clear leader, there was still a substantial number of points being sold at both SSR and AKV, so there was broad appeal to various people with three different themed resorts.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
In 2012, AKV surprisingly takes the lead, with both BLT (supposedly "sold out" by the end of 2011) and SSR market share shrinking.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
In 2013, AKV maintains it's lead, but BLT and SSR largely disappear (SSR was supposedly "sold out" in 2012). Meanwhile, VGF goes on Sale and grabs a large market share.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
In 2014, AKV shrinks dramatically (as it was "sold out" in late January), and 2014 sales are largely just one resort - VGF.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
So far in 2015, VGF maintains the lead, but the expectation is that since VGF is now "sold out", 2015 will look like 2014, with one resort dominating - PVB.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
Including Aulani in the 2015 stats shows this:
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
Over the same period, the cost per point to purchase direct from DVC has been going up and the point charts for the most recent DVC resorts show point inflation (it costs more points to book a reservation than it does at older resorts).
The inflated point charts and the falling quantity of points being sold also indicates a decline in the number of new DVC members that Disney Vacation Development is pulling in each year.
This seems to signal a shift in the sales strategy for DVC when compared to prior years. They are less focused on a volume business (more points at a lower price) and more focused on a smaller volume business at a higher price.
So, even though they are selling less points, they have a greater profit margin on every sale. Their strategy of converting existing hotel rooms into DVC units (at PVB and likely WL) reduces capital expenditures - decreasing the cost of the goods they are selling, resulting in a higher profit margin.
Perhaps their options for building more DVC units at WDW are growing smaller - at least in terms of the "low hanging fruit" where they can add DVC onto existing Deluxe resorts - and they realize their volume business is not sustainable, or at least not the best approach.
Look at the charts below and chime in with your thoughts.
Point sales fell from 2.47 million in 2011 to 1.70 million in 2014.
Data from Wil Lovato @ DVCNews.com
Here is a more detailed breakdown of DVC Direct Sales from Jul 2010 through June 2015. I find this interesting.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
For the last half of 2010, BLT dominated sales.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
In 2011, while BLT was the clear leader, there was still a substantial number of points being sold at both SSR and AKV, so there was broad appeal to various people with three different themed resorts.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
In 2012, AKV surprisingly takes the lead, with both BLT (supposedly "sold out" by the end of 2011) and SSR market share shrinking.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
In 2013, AKV maintains it's lead, but BLT and SSR largely disappear (SSR was supposedly "sold out" in 2012). Meanwhile, VGF goes on Sale and grabs a large market share.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
In 2014, AKV shrinks dramatically (as it was "sold out" in late January), and 2014 sales are largely just one resort - VGF.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
So far in 2015, VGF maintains the lead, but the expectation is that since VGF is now "sold out", 2015 will look like 2014, with one resort dominating - PVB.
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
Including Aulani in the 2015 stats shows this:
Data courtesy of Wil Lovato
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