Agent H
Well-Known Member
It’s a possibility
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Captain America 4
- Thread starter NateD1226
- Start date
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
Normally I’d agree but I think with the strike delays, rumored production changes, rumored cost overruns, etc Disney will see break even as a win on a couple of the movies coming out this year.
Most of the movies I’ve seen in my life have been because a friend/friends wanted to see them. I’ve been to many matinees alone but I think that’s the exception, most people view the movie theater experience as a social experience.
This is a big part of why I think Disney will be ok if this “just” breaks even, when you’re worried about potentially losing a couple hundred million breaking even is actually a success.
The flip side is also true, there’s movies that have made $100 million that are considered flops because the expectations were so high.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
If they find the right storyline and set it up properly with many films over many years, like the did with the Inifinity Stones, I 100% agree, if they can’t establish a good enough underlying story I don’t think it’ll ever happen though.
The potential is there, they just need to find the right story.
Agent H
Well-Known Member
I have mixed feelings about it myself on 1 Hand secret wars is a movie I’m very excited for on and has the potential to be just as good if not better than endgame on the other hand the change to doctor doom concerns me. if they reuse the plot when kang was going to be in it it could come off as sloppy to say the least.
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Chi84
Premium Member
/
Of course. That’s true of me too. We must have taken different meanings from that comment.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I hope no one has that expectation.
I’d expect a floor of 1.5 and less than they’ll be very disappointed. There will be a melt down if it can’t crack 1. They didn’t roll out deals for RDJ for it to go that low.
Maybe we should even say looking towards 2 would be realistically achievable if it’s done well. It has the parts, the characters, the directors and the box office history to make that. But Ultron only corrects to ~1.75 ballpark.
Spiderman after all nearly did 2. But at the same time… no it absolutely will not do endgame numbers. Nor should it.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
In my opinion it's best shot at hitting big is if the really lean into Deadpool and wolverine, as well as no way home. They have not given much of compelling reason from a story standpoint for people to have the anticipation of endgame. But the novelty of the 3 spidermen interacting with Deadpool and wolverine, plus RDJ coming back, might do it. Add in the guardians with starlord coming back and you have something. It's how the transition into it that's going to be important. F4 could be that film.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
I think F4 will be fun movie and it will do well but it can't do everything. It's an introduction movie.
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
I think Marvel is expecting a lot from the FF movie. Similar to what they were hoping that they would get when they rebooted Spiderman with Tom Holland. It needs to be a huge hit and I suspect it will be.
MagicMouseFan
Well-Known Member
I like the retro future, could be good.
MagicMouseFan
Well-Known Member
If Marvel can’t win with FF, Thunderbolts, and Daredevil series… I don't know what to say.
All three look like fun popcorn features.
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
True but I think all will be hits. The Thunderbolts* are giving me a Guardians vibe with a team of C-list characters that join together and I think FF will be a massive hit.
Dranth
Well-Known Member
Maybe.
I hope all of them are great and I am 100% wrong, but I just don't see it. I don't think Thunderbolts or FF will lose money, but I don't think they blow up either.
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
Time will tell. I think some people have very unrealistic expectations for returns and expect every MCU movie to make a billion dollars but I expect both to be profitable with FF being the clear winner.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Very few have hit that hard as their lead. I’m sure they want FF to hit like Spiderman or Guardians. Both correct just to the “1B”.
That said, I’d look to the non inflation adjusted numbers for Homecoming and Guardians as more reflective of the actual theatrical landscape. Just because money is worth more doesn’t mean the box office health has increased in lockstep. We’re still way down from 2019 and fairly flat from the earlier 2010s.
So kind of 750-850 would be quite good and definitely at least where’d they want a keystone franchise to be. Same goes for X-men when it is eventually relaunched.
Thunderbolts* on the other hand I’m really rooting for. I don’t know and doubt if it’s going to be another Guardians. I hope it does well, but that might be like 600.
That said, I’d look to the non inflation adjusted numbers for Homecoming and Guardians as more reflective of the actual theatrical landscape. Just because money is worth more doesn’t mean the box office health has increased in lockstep. We’re still way down from 2019 and fairly flat from the earlier 2010s.
So kind of 750-850 would be quite good and definitely at least where’d they want a keystone franchise to be. Same goes for X-men when it is eventually relaunched.
Thunderbolts* on the other hand I’m really rooting for. I don’t know and doubt if it’s going to be another Guardians. I hope it does well, but that might be like 600.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Exactly, it’s why I hate when people use the adjusted numbers. As it always comes across as trying to cut down a movie that earned fairly well relatively just because another movie appeared to earn more because of inflation.
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
Needs a raccoon. Only half-kidding.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
100 percent. I think like most people, I'm a bit dubious on Ghost. Hopefully she is flushed out; but if I was a studio exec, I'd have found that CGI character in the well to sub her out for.
But also there's always a Hawkeye I guess, eventually he was justified.
Inflation only seems to matter when the film surpasses it’s original failure claims
TP2000
Well-Known Member
What the heck? Do you still pretend that Disneyland tickets are only $49 per day, and eggs are 89 cents per dozen?
Things change, and the past few years saw record inflation this country hasn't seen since the energy crises of the 1970's. If you are discussing box office, or any financials more than a few years apart really, you need to factor inflation into the equation or else you are getting a distorted picture.
New Mustang convertibles don't cost $8,500 any longer, gas is now 5 bucks a gallon in California, and a $400 Million global box office would lose money in 2025 because the production budget was $175 Million.
There's a reason why box office tracking firms provide an Inflation Adjustment tab clearly on their websites. Because it matters to the story of financial success or failure, or anything in between. Especially for movies more than a few years apart.
Here's how 2024's Barbie looks to 1997's Titanic, both of which were touted in their day as "Billion dollar successes!". Without adjusting for inflation, Barbie beat Titanic handily at the domestic box office. Right?
But click that Inflation Adjustment switch on the website, and here's how the domestic box office suddenly changes.
See how that flips the script when you show the financial reality of inflation adjustment?
Here are the hard numbers adjusted for inflation of the story of the famous doll versus the doomed boat.
Now ask yourself, which studio exec would you rather be in this scenario; the one who made $475 Million in profit off of Barbie or the one who made the inflation adjusted equivalent of just under $2 Billion in profit off of Titanic?
I know which profit I'd rather have; Titanic!. But if you didn't adjust for inflation, it would look like Barbie beat Titanic.