News Bob Iger is back! Chapek is out!!

Serpico Jones

Well-Known Member
Peltz already suggests he doesn't want Peltz as chairman because he's too loyal to Iger.

Yet Peltz says he's not trying to remove Iger. Spoiler alert, old man: you can't have it both ways!
Peltz wants Iger gone next year.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Eventually it has to make money or they will shut it down.
Every cent of light crude is the property of the kingdom…crazy…but that is the functional state

Ironically…LIV is in trouble today Again and I heard this quote from Bob Costas:
“Livs goal was to gain credibility and publicity for legitimacy”

I snarfed 😂
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Peltz already suggests he doesn't want Peltz as chairman because he's too loyal to Iger.

Yet Peltz says he's not trying to remove Iger. Spoiler alert, old man: you can't have it both ways!
I think you missed fired there, boss?

Peltz is lying. Cause he can. What he wants is a minimum removal of Iger…immediately or contractually, and control over management and/of board appointments.

Standard playbook.

Hopefully it stops there. Or he fizzles/changes his mind/gets bored.

He’s gonna get a ton of press…for sure.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
I recommend the roy disney book for those who want insight into how these investors operate and maneuver to force companies to change… or pay them.

This book gave a great look into the different hostile attempts and roy disney’s attempt to takeover the company. Good insight into how they find partners, funding, and how they exert pressure.
Saving Disney: The Story of Roy...
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I recommend the roy disney book for those who want insight into how these investors operate and maneuver to force companies to change… or pay them.

This book gave a great look into the different hostile attempts and roy disney’s attempt to takeover the company. Good insight into how they find partners, funding, and how they exert pressure.
Saving Disney: The Story of Roy...

And these
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Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Maybe it was storming that was on my mind. Disney war doesn’t get as much into the investor stuff.

Between storming and they roy book there was much more insight into how gold operated, bass bros, and the other contenders
Storming is all about the investor stuff…it more closely resembles what is going on now than Disney war.

It’s a great book. I got it on eBay about 6 years back and burned through it.

Top 5 Disney book ever…as is the Roy book you mentioned that I read maybe 5 years ago?

Required reading for any heady fan. As is “project:future”


I mentioned gold upthread…his bio is very similar…eerily…to Peltz and permelutter…
Same age and similar kinda vibe.

He’s still out there.
For those that don’t know…he was Roy O’s attorney, investment partner and best friend for 40+ years…and was integral to Eisner installation and removal

As a Disney fan…joking aside…what scares me is there is nothing close to a Roy this time

Roy both cause the trouble and was savvy enough to control it. Organized chaos.

Bob Iger can never hope to do it. This entire last 5 years is a debacle of failed leadership on him.

Eisner was much smarter than him…that’s a scary concept to a fan.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Arnold was getting questioned publicly today by the loudmouths for extending and then knifing him…

That happens all the time and isn’t commented on unless your laundry gets international public attention.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Yes impatience is what got some investors burned like the dot-com bubble.

That was not impatience, that’s speculation. A lot of the dot com companies had literally no revenue nor value. Disney isn’t a dot com business, the fundamentals for profitability are all there. They have the subscriber base, Netflix has proven the current breakpoint on subscriber growth is about 20 dollars a month and therefore the peak of profitability is likely around 30. Disney can achieve break even with 9.99 a month or with the lower price plus advertising subsidy. Based on current subscriber numbers and content spend. The rest is pathway for how much they can ring out of the service.

Unfortunately they were caught in the trap that the market rapidly switched from loss related growth to value and profit. They needed to stop devaluing their product for growth a bit earlier. And yea 6.99 a month for the entire back catalogue, direct to stream triple A product was seriously devaluing their product. Some of that is on ‘tech’ coming in and devaluing content over the last decade. But it certainly worked in terms or rather rapid catch up to the market leader (Netflix).

Now from a speculation perspective I think the market was widely out of whack, they valued the company far beyond its revenue while the parks were closed with an uncertain travel rebound (the 2020/21 stock peak). Then they literally undervalued the company saying it was worth less today than it was 5 years ago. So much so the entire market cap was easily attributable to JUST parks, resorts and consumer products. Never mind linear, entertainment? And I guess the company had negative net worth for the highly successful DTC. I’m not surprised the stock is rebounding now that market sentiments are improving.

This is frankly all on Chapek’s sheer inability to convey their strategy. I frankly see Iger doing very little except riding out the subscription price wave.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
It’s not that I disagree with you…I don’t. But does that matter?

Iger turned a company that has no business chasing quarterlies into one that is expected to chase quarterlies. That’s is a fundamental change. So he yielded what had always made Disney more of an enigma that allowed it to write its own rules.

In his profit “scenario”…billions of people are gonna pay like $29.99 a month AND sit through commercials?

Does that scan? Sure sounds like the idea of an outdated guy that knows nothing but the cable model?

He made a big show about being IP/brand focused…but the IP is lagging now. You buy the most loyal franchise/fanbase ever and you don’t bother to even learn why it was so?

Really? Skip a symposium for Silicon Valley or two and do your job. Or hire someone who is willing to understand and let them make the decisions.

This could be a blip…or this could be the start of the end.

When people “want their god damn money…” logic goes out the window

I do agree they are far too quarterly driven and it is biting them in the rear now that they have to tell the market to wait a few quarters.

The profit scenario isn’t so obscene though. And let’s not even inflation adjust what people tolerated in terms of cable prices.

The switch to valuation is good for the industry, Netflix ruined that for a while. Why pay for HBO on cable (for maybe one premium show you want to watch) when Netflix will give you oodles of premium content for a fraction of the price. Albeit Netflix finally isn’t ‘cheap’, but D+ was and has been… and even still is. D+/Star, which is frankly pretty equivocal especially if you like the back catalogue, is still half the price of Netflix here in Canada. Which is like 10% of the price of cable, which is honestly kind of garbage content wise.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
That was not impatience, that’s speculation. A lot of the dot com companies had literally no revenue nor value. Disney isn’t a dot com business, the fundamentals for profitability are all there. They have the subscriber base, Netflix has proven the current breakpoint on subscriber growth is about 20 dollars a month and therefore the peak of profitability is likely around 30. Disney can achieve break even with 9.99 a month or with the lower price plus advertising subsidy. Based on current subscriber numbers and content spend. The rest is pathway for how much they can ring out of the service.

Unfortunately they were caught in the trap that the market rapidly switched from loss related growth to value and profit. They needed to stop devaluing their product for growth a bit earlier. And yea 6.99 a month for the entire back catalogue, direct to stream triple A product was seriously devaluing their product. Some of that is on ‘tech’ coming in and devaluing content over the last decade. But it certainly worked in terms or rather rapid catch up to the market leader (Netflix).

Now from a speculation perspective I think the market was widely out of whack, they valued the company far beyond its revenue while the parks were closed with an uncertain travel rebound (the 2020/21 stock peak). Then they literally undervalued the company saying it was worth less today than it was 5 years ago. So much so the entire market cap was easily attributable to JUST parks, resorts and consumer products. Never mind linear, entertainment? And I guess the company had negative net worth for the highly successful DTC. I’m not surprised the stock is rebounding now that market sentiments are improving.

This is frankly all on Chapek’s sheer inability to convey their strategy. I frankly see Iger doing very little except riding out the subscription price wave.
I cannot entertain comparisons of where Disney is now to the dot.com

And nobody has ever…ever…said that the “mistake” was not holding on to Infoseek or Magellan because it was gonna make bucks…

Nope…there’s revisionist history and there’s “If you drink THIS much…you’re gonna be in the hospital before midnight”
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I do agree they are far too quarterly driven and it is biting them in the rear now that they have to tell the market to wait a few quarters.

The profit scenario isn’t so obscene though. And let’s not even inflation adjust what people tolerated in terms of cable prices.

The switch to valuation is good for the industry, Netflix ruined that for a while. Why pay for HBO on cable (for maybe one premium show you want to watch) when Netflix will give you oodles of premium content for a fraction of the price. Albeit Netflix finally isn’t ‘cheap’, but D+ was and has been… and even still is. D+/Star, which is frankly pretty equivocal especially if you like the back catalogue, is still half the price of Netflix here in Canada. Which is like 10% of the price of cable, which is honestly kind of garbage content wise.
It’s gonna be years…not quarters

When 45% of your revenue and profits are driven by travel and the credit, real estate and labor markets are heading down (as said by bankers who never volunteer that)?…

They’re in pretty deep trouble. It’s unraveling fast.

They’re in no man’s land. Tinkering with Hulu or espn when investors want dividends you can’t pay isn’t much of plan.

And the problem with the genius streaming model is that they can’t control Themselves…

So I don’t pay Comcast for HBO…but HBO wants $15.99 direct to get it on my iPad. Throw some commercials up on their too! Why not…I sure love watching monster ads 🤗

Does that scan? Insisting on more time and money from a public not willing to pay attention and wants it free ripped off YouTube Norway?
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member


Either hedge funds buying up enough stock as they can to try to forcibly install Peltz on the board or investors liking Mark Parker enough and feeling confident about Iger taking succession seriously, or both.

FWIW, WBD is up on a higher margin, but that stock has already been devalued so much thanks to the disaster of a merger.

(As of now it's back down to $99, but I wouldn't be shocked if it stays around the $90-$100 range until the earnings conference or March.)
Investors favorite time to buy stock is when you think it could be raided/broken up.

And since Disney has always been notoriously “stable”…you can dump it and walk way with money still if it doesn’t trend that way.
 

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