News Bob Iger is back! Chapek is out!!

[CaptainAmerica]

So its interesting because this movie is under 20th, and under a previous deal with HBO to release there (the last movie in that deal). Its going to be on both platforms, but Disney gets to set the day it releases. They might drag it out just so HBO doesn't get any benefit.

Interesting, I knew it was on that deal but I thought Disney had bought their way out of all those legacy agreements.

 

[Tha Realest]

COVID. They have never said "we collapsed the window to 30 days and we're keeping it the forever."

I doubt The Way of Water will be on Disney+ before the summer.

No, but it's something the studios have been pushing for for awhile. And it's typically never broadcast - but you can't deny that it affects viewing habits when you've been trained to just wait it out a few more weeks and you can watch it for "free" on one of your many services.

Example - I haven't been able to get around to see Black Adam. Usually see those films within a week or two of release. Busy with life and work, couldn't make it out. With the trajectory of the box office, and the fact it's already available for purchase, I figure I'll be watching this one at home before the kids are on Christmas break.

 

[Trauma]

The general public cares (or knows) about zero of what you listed. And when you're talking 'blockbuster movie', you need the general public, not just the fandom.

This will be a blockbuster movie. #1 animated film of the year.

After what Disney has been putting out, family’s will flock to this.

 

[DKampy]

The problem is every parent realizes it's much easier to deal with the kids when it's at home. Taking kids, especially multiple kids to a movie theater is a huge PITA.

Long term I can see the traditional movie theater model dying all together as there's really no real advantage to the big screen model other than it being a big screen and Large format TV's are only getting more affordable.

The problem is I don’t know how viable streaming is… no one is profiting yet… plus you continuously have to create new content to keep up with competition…I guess maybe they will end up with commercials and it will be the new cable… but if movie theaters die…I see quality suffering on the streaming service…so far it is not working as well as they thought

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The worst financial-meets-creative decision they could have made was killing Steve and Tony in the same movie. Endgame very clearly told audiences "you've been with us all along, but you have permission to abandon ship now because this story is over."

Not to go “Pro”…but The thing that sucks on these forums - especially for me - is how unfortunately accurate I’ve been on my predictions.

If you check the tape…I believe I nailed that one too. Big stupid mistake. They were the pillars and they disposed of them for fringe characters. It would be like offing luke Skywalker for nothing.

 

[Kamikaze]

Sounds like their forte is episodic series at this point. With the collapse of tent poles maybe a pivot to more of that type of production and use it on D+

Its complicated, because those series cost more than they can bring in. They don't drive new subscribers, but they help keep people.

Do you know what the biggest single driver of new Disney+ subs was?

Hamilton.

Because it was different - it drew in new people who didn't have it before. But most fans of Marvel/Pixar/Disney/Star Wars already have D+ and don't sub because a new show is coming out, so therefore Disney doesn't get new revenue for Andor or Secret Invasion or whatever.

So if anything, they might push back to MORE theatrical releases because thats revenue they can show as direct money being made. And move the D+ stuff to having more 'special presentations' like GotG Holiday Special where they can put a smaller cost in and have a new hour of content instead of $60-$80m for 6 hours.

 

[Tha Realest]

Accept that Disney used to be the Rolls Royce of themed entertainment. Being the Cadillac makes them on par with Universal. Cadillac, in my mind, is like cheap luxury.

I agree with this. Many of our vacations, especially during COVID, were to Disney World. We have unused credit and tickets that we have to use, and have already booked Spring Break (due in part to a non-refundable DVC reservation after we cancelled our DCL cruise). But going forward we're giving Universal our money.

To that end, not sure how the Parks readjust to the Chapek moves by reinvesting at a time we're about to head into a recession and positive cash flow and profitability is paramount (given debt servicing for 20CF acquisition, unrecouped costs on stuff like the nighttime spectaculars and HarmoniUS, and ongoing systemic costs involved with D+ content)

 

[Kamikaze]

This will be a blockbuster movie. #1 animated film of the year.

After what Disney has been putting out, family’s will flock to this.

I didn't say otherwise. I just said the stuff you're talking about is 100% irrelevant to the general public.

 

[Tha Realest]

This will be a blockbuster movie. #1 animated film of the year.

After what Disney has been putting out, family’s will flock to this.

It's going to make 2x Elemental and Wish's box office combined.

 

[Kamikaze]

Accept that Disney used to be the Rolls Royce of themed entertainment. Being the Cadillac makes them on par with Universal. Cadillac, in my mind, is like cheap luxury.

No, they were the Ford Model T. Cheap and pushed to everyone. They want to be more luxury and expensive, thats what they're trying now.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Not to go “Pro”…but The thing that sucks on these forums - especially for me - is how unfortunately accurate I’ve been on my predictions.

If you check the tape…I believe I nailed that one too. Big stupid mistake. They were the pillars and they disposed of them for fringe characters. It would be like offing luke Skywalker for nothing.

The only piece I don't blame them for (obviously) is Chadwick Boseman's death. I think he could have been the next "top guy."

But when you read between the lines, it's like they thought Cap, Tony, Thor, and Hulk were all co-leads. They weren't. It was Cap and Tony, then a HUGE gap before you got to the next tier.

The only excuse for killing them both in the same movie would be if you had creative control of Spider-Man with an X-Men movie in the can.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The general public cares (or knows) about zero of what you listed. And when you're talking 'blockbuster movie', you need the general public, not just the fandom.

I agree…

This will be a blockbuster movie. #1 animated film of the year.

After what Disney has been putting out, family’s will flock to this.

I agree…and I think it’s the biggest grossing movie of 2023

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

People are watching the wrong game.

Disney+ isn't supposed to be a gamechanger vis-a-vis Theatrical. It's supposed to be a gamechanger vis-a-vis linear television, i.e. Freeform, Disney Channel, Junior, XD, FX, FXX, FXM, NatGeo, NatGeo Wild, and maybe even Grandma ABC herself.

They're not trying to replace box office revenue, they're trying to replace cord-cutter affiliate fees from Comcast and the like. They still want the box office revenue, but COVID took that away from them for a period of time.

The problem is they gotta do both…and it looks right now the financials aren’t solid.

They ran for the hills a month ago and chapek got tossed 2 weeks later. That was a big part of it

 

[Kamikaze]

The worst financial-meets-creative decision they could have made was killing Steve and Tony in the same movie. Endgame very clearly told audiences "you've been with us all along, but you have permission to abandon ship now because this story is over."

I'd figure both will be in Secret Wars (its literally the plot), and we might see a Special Presentation with Steve in WW2 at some point.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

It's going to make 2x Elemental and Wish's box office combined.

I'm worried that it won't have enough representation of marginalized groups and challenge the fasco-capitalistic paradigm of the colonialist West.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Well the customers agree with you…because wakanda is 3+ weeks out…which means it’s gonna drop off the box office Cliff…well below industry estimates and half what the “everyone loves everything Disney everytime” movie pundits around here confidently insisted.

That’s 2 underperforming MCU “heavy hitters” in 6 months.

We still got avatar and layoffs at corporate, right?

People want to push the "MCU in trouble narrative" so badly and its utter nonsense. Dr Strange 2 outperformed the original by more then 40%. Thor 4 outperformed Thor 3 domestically and in those international markets in which it was allowed to open - it fell short of 3's box office entirely because it didn't play in Russia or China. It is also the first blockbuster franchise to have four installments that each make more then the previous one in the domestic box office. Wakanda Forever isn't the global event of the first one, but that's not terribly surprising because the ads didn't even present a main character and instead sold an ensemble cast in a story of grief and loss, not a blockbuster formula. Its still doing very well and demonstrating significant legs - it had a miniscule 31% drop in its third week.

Folks can grumble about the state of the parks or highlight that Strange World bombed without disingenuously pretending Disney is failing across the board.

 

[Kamikaze]

I agree…and I think it’s the biggest grossing movie of 2023

The Barbie disrespect.

 

[dreday3]

I think Elemental may have some legs to it. Teaser Trailer was good.

I can see it appealing to a wide audience.

 

[Casper Gutman]

The movie and the success of the rides/lands are completely separate. The existing rides in Tokyo are subpar, to put it mildly. At least one of those is coming here as a direct clone. The land itself, obviously, is immaculately themed. The DK coaster might be better than the Tokyo attractions, but it might not.

But yes, the movie will make a pile of money. I will see it day 1, but I have zero interest in SNW Orlando.

Have you been to the Japanese SNW?

 

[Touchdown]

While I agree the general public may not have as much knowledge of fans, I think you are discounting how large the fandom is. Mariokart 8 is closing in on 50 million games sold. That’s one game for every 160 people on planet Earth. Those are massive numbers. Not to mention Mario is only second to Pikachu and Mickey in fictional character popularity in the world. The points I made will cause a vast majority of them to go see the movie as it’s now clear that unlike the live action movie, this movie is honoring the franchise and treating it with care.