Tom
Beta Return
While I love the rumor...I know so many CMs have been telling people all kinds of things. I'm still thinking announcement some time in September, ADRs booking opening early October, soft opening late Oct/early Nov and open in time for Thanksgiving week.
I would LOVE to be wrong, but my gut says...
1. mid September announcement would be timed well for parents - i.e. kids back in school and finally settled + this is about the time the spring break WDW crowd would be looking to book...i.e. FLE info timed right then would lure in people who were on the fence and starting to think now that the new school year chaos has calmed down
2. Crowds around Halloween are larger, but not Thanksgiving or Christmas...so it would be a good soft opening testing time
3. I know "late 2012" and "in time for the holidays" has been up for debate, but I can't see them waiting until Christmas and missing out on the Thanksgiving crowds. The rooms jump in price around the 17th for the vals and mods and the 19th (I think) for the deluxe resorts to Thanksgiving elevated pricing- so I'd think that's the first target crowd they want to hit.
4. While the parade doesn't air until Christmas, the actual taping date is obviously quite a bit earlier and I'm sure they'd want it ready when they tape so they can advertise it.
5. While very different projects...I think Disney wants to make a big splash with the opening of FLE...kind of like the media saturation going on right now for DCA's Cars Land. Cars Land's actual opening date wasn't released for a while, but we knew it would kick off the summer season. Timing is everything- so I could totally see FLE being opened as they usher in the holiday season to make another big splash.
Like I said...I would LOVE to be wrong and have it all go down much sooner!
I think your hypotheses are very logical. And we need to keep in mind that they're announcing the "Opening" as late this year. Soft opening has to come before that.
Thanksgiving crowds might be too heavy to test the attraction, since they often have to take it down to adjust, work out bugs, etc. That's a lot of people to upset. I would almost see them soft opening Mermaid before Thanksgiving....if not before Halloween.