Avengers: Infinity War

[Princess Leia]

Think you're getting your BP and IW and World and Domestic mixed up a bit.

Movie    Domestic   Foreign   World    MCU

BP         3          37       10       4

IW         8           5        5       1

The gross of all three Avengers movies is $4.5 Billion. The gross of all MCU movies is $16.5 Billion. So far.

Whoops I meant 5th, I’ll fix that

 

[Princess Leia]

Infinity War should be passing Jurassic World any day now for the number 4 spot on the chart.

The real question becomes whether or not it passes Star Wars VII. There is $396.5M between TFA and Jurassic World, and I don’t see IW making another $400M. I might be wrong, but I just find it unlikely.

 

[LSLS]

Infinity War should be passing Jurassic World any day now for the number 4 spot on the chart.

The real question becomes whether or not it passes Star Wars VII. There is $396.5M between TFA and Jurassic World, and I don’t see IW making another $400M. I might be wrong, but I just find it unlikely.

I'm hopeful. I liked TFA, but I was blown away by this one like I wish one of the two Star Wars films would have.

 

[Princess Leia]

#4 in the world (Box Office Mojo hasn't changed the rank number yet, whoops lol)!

$386M separate IW from TFA. While I've mentioned before that it's not impossible for it to pass TFA, it's on the unlikely side. What could make it possible: China. It only premiered last week, so it's got better momentum there. Plus, Deadpool 2 will not be released, as the original Deadpool is only now getting a release date (2+ years later) in the country. Solo won't perform extraordinarily well over there either, unless the Chinese have changed their minds and suddenly love Star Wars.

How things are looking on the domestic side:

The next movie for IW to pass is TLJ, and it's about $61M behind. I think it's probable for IW to pass it and The Avengers at about the same time (depending on how it competes with Deadpool 2 and Solo in the coming weeks). It's possible that IW could pass Jurassic World (and maybe Titanic too) by the end of the summer, but it will be at a slower pace (especially since almost every weekend in June has a big release). Ant-Man & the Wasp should give it an early-July boost.

Personally, I think it will have a harder time topping Black Panther, as BP is almost $138M above it.

 

[Ripken10]

#4 in the world (Box Office Mojo hasn't changed the rank number yet, whoops lol)!
View attachment 284414

$386M separate IW from TFA. While I've mentioned before that it's not impossible for it to pass TFA, it's on the unlikely side. What could make it possible: China. It only premiered last week, so it's got better momentum there. Plus, Deadpool 2 will not be released, as the original Deadpool is only now getting a release date (2+ years later) in the country. Solo won't perform extraordinarily well over there either, unless the Chinese have changed their minds and suddenly love Star Wars.

How things are looking on the domestic side:
View attachment 284416

The next movie for IW to pass is TLJ, and it's about $61M behind. I think it's probable for IW to pass it and The Avengers at about the same time (depending on how it competes with Deadpool 2 and Solo in the coming weeks). It's possible that IW could pass Jurassic World (and maybe Titanic too) by the end of the summer, but it will be at a slower pace (especially since almost every weekend in June has a big release). Ant-Man & the Wasp should give it an early-July boost.

Personally, I think it will have a harder time topping Black Panther, as BP is almost $138M above it.

You may be right, and this weekend will be the most clear picture of it's chances of catching the black panther. But to note, it is still around 5 to 6 days ahead of the Black Panther, but slowing down faster. It is still hitting black panthers weekday numbers but are falling behind it's weekend holds. Most seem to be predicting approx. 28 million this weekend for Infinite War, which will put it at 594 million approx.

I am looking at its comparison to the Avengers. Day to day in cycle it is very similar right now. For the most part (not 100% true) it is dropping slower than Avengers still and making more money day to day. (how will it do with the slate of movies coming...with an R rated Deadpool maybe not as bad as some predict). If you look at what Avengers did from here, if it matched that road (which again right now it is beating, but should see some slow down you would think) it would be on pace to make over $710 million. So there is room there.

Avengers didn't have the same competition IW will have. It had in similar weeks MIB 3, Snow White and the Huntsman, Madagascar 3, Brave and then Ted. IW has Deadpool 2, Solo, (nothing) Oceans 8 and Incredibles 2 in those similar weeks. Easy to see which had more competition. So I think it will be close, but maybe you are right.

 

[Princess Leia]

You may be right, and this weekend will be the most clear picture of it's chances of catching the black panther. But to note, it is still around 5 to 6 days ahead of the Black Panther, but slowing down faster. It is still hitting black panthers weekday numbers but are falling behind it's weekend holds. Most seem to be predicting approx. 28 million this weekend for Infinite War, which will put it at 594 million approx.

I am looking at its comparison to the Avengers. Day to day in cycle it is very similar right now. For the most part (not 100% true) it is dropping slower than Avengers still and making more money day to day. (how will it do with the slate of movies coming...with an R rated Deadpool maybe not as bad as some predict). If you look at what Avengers did from here, if it matched that road (which again right now it is beating, but should see some slow down you would think) it would be on pace to make over $710 million. So there is room there.

Avengers didn't have the same competition IW will have. It had in similar weeks MIB 3, Snow White and the Huntsman, Madagascar 3, Brave and then Ted. IW has Deadpool 2, Solo, (nothing) Oceans 8 and Incredibles 2 in those similar weeks. Easy to see which had more competition. So I think it will be close, but maybe you are right.

I was probably a little liberal with my guesstimates for it passing TLJ and Avengers, but I think it will happen.
Domestically, Deadpool 2 is tracking at $130-150M, and Infinity War is predicted to take in $30M. The comedies are all going to be competing for common people (maybe not Show Dogs, but I definitely expect to see a Book Club vs Tully vs Overboard vs I Feel Pretty showdown). Deadpool will probably take from the IW/BP crowd, but also maybe a bit from the comedy crowd as well. Internationally, I have no clue as to what will happen.

 

[Princess Leia]

In case anyone likes comparing movies (like me), Box Office Mojo had a comparison between six films and how they did (or are doing, in the case of Black Panther and Infinity War) domestically: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, The Avengers, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Black Panther, and Avengers: Infinity War. The numbers are still flexible (it's only been 3 weeks for IW), but you can kind of get an idea of tracking for the future.

Unrelated- I saw Deadpool 2 last night and loved it. I noticed a couple things though:

• I went to my theater's 8:30 showing... and there were maybe 40 people there (I'm not sure how many showed up for the 7:00). Not exactly sure why that was, as the movie was hilarious, but to each their own
• None of the 4 showings last night (7, 8:30, 10, midnight) were offered in 3D. I just took a look at Cinemark's offerings for 3 different local theaters, and none of them are offering anything in 3D (a couple had limited screenings of Infinity War a couple weeks ago, but those have gone away). Is 3D on its way out of popularity?

 

[Ripken10]

In case anyone likes comparing movies (like me), Box Office Mojo had a comparison between six films and how they did (or are doing, in the case of Black Panther and Infinity War) domestically: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, The Avengers, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Black Panther, and Avengers: Infinity War. The numbers are still flexible (it's only been 3 weeks for IW), but you can kind of get an idea of tracking for the future.

View attachment 284579

Unrelated- I saw Deadpool 2 last night and loved it. I noticed a couple things though:

• I went to my theater's 8:30 showing... and there were maybe 40 people there (I'm not sure how many showed up for the 7:00). Not exactly sure why that was, as the movie was hilarious, but to each their own
• None of the 4 showings last night (7, 8:30, 10, midnight) were offered in 3D. I just took a look at Cinemark's offerings for 3 different local theaters, and none of them are offering anything in 3D (a couple had limited screenings of Infinity War a couple weeks ago, but those have gone away). Is 3D on its way out of popularity?

I enjoy the daily tracker they have for those comparisons

 

[Princess Leia]

Infinity War made an estimated $28.5M this weekend, which was about what the predictions were. I’d expect it to make more of a dip this weekend, since Solo is more kid friendly than Deadpool (please don’t take your children to Deadpool 2).

 

[RandomPrincess]

Infinity War made an estimated $28.5M this weekend, which was about what the predictions were. I’d expect it to make more of a dip this weekend, since Solo is more kid friendly than Deadpool (please don’t take you children to Deadpool 2).

Please don't! Although less sexually graphic than 1.

 

[LSLS]

Well I will probably add to the IW total again today. Think I'm going to skip out of work a bit early and take my 5 year old to see it today. She has loved a bunch of the others (especially with Scarlet Witch and Black Widow).

 

[Princess Leia]

Please don't! Although less sexually graphic than 1.

Yeah after the first movie, I was actually surprised by the sequel not going over the top sexually.

Though the film made up for the 'not for kids' material with swearing, violence, and the central plot consisting of a main character wanting to kill a child to save the future.

Anyways, if the estimates for the weekend are right (on the domestic side), IW is $25M from passing TLJ and becoming #7 on the all time domestic list. I think there's a chance of it jumping right to #6 on Friday or Saturday, since Avengers is barely above TLJ.

 

[Princess Leia]

Infinity War is the highest grossing Marvel movie in China- it’s made over $300 Million in just two weeks! Even though it had an 84% drop over there this weekend, it should still do pretty well for itself for a little while longer (no Deadpool 2).

 

[Princess Leia]

Over $600M at the domestic box office!

 

[Princess Leia]

It should be interesting to watch the box office over the next couple of weeks as summer break starts. While the movie will take a hit from Solo (Han shot first, guys, never forget it), teens with extra cash and babysitters with kids to entertain on rainy days will have the option of going to see it.

I think it will be pretty unlikely that IW will pass BP on the domestic side, and TFA on the global. Sure, IW has made more than BP did at the 26 day mark, but BP made more in its 3rd week, and it looks like the trend will continue for Week 4.

This is a pretty interesting breakdown between Age of Ultron, Avengers, Civil War, Black Panther, and Infinity War: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=marvelopeners.htm

Movieweb is predicting IW to take in $19.7 over the 4-day weekend, so if that's added to whatever the movie made yesterday and will today, I'm guessing it will pass the original Avengers on the domestic list, but at the very least it will pass The Last Jedi. It'll be close though.

 

[Princess Leia]

Domestic box office update (this includes the estimates for the weekend, so the numbers are probably a little off):

In one month, Infinity War has made more than the first Avengers made over an entire summer. It’s slowing down, but it will definitely end up in the top 4 or 5 (I personally don’t see it passing Black Panther domestically, but anything is possible).

 

[Princess Leia]

Infinity War has been granted a rare 30-day extension in China. It was scheduled to leave theaters this upcoming weekend, but it will now stay until July 9th (which should help it get closer to that $2B number).

 

[Princess Leia]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ar-top-2-billion-in-record-time/#4e954bbb6153 (not sure if everyone really cares about my financial posts, but here’s another one)

This article brings up an interesting point- it was the re-release of Titanic that pushed it over the $650M domestic mark. So my question is, will Disney put Infinity Wars (or any other MCU film) out in theaters before Avengers 4? Captain Marvel is being released 8 weeks before A4, so it’s possible any re-release could harm CM.

 

[Ripken10]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ar-top-2-billion-in-record-time/#4e954bbb6153 (not sure if everyone really cares about my financial posts, but here’s another one)

This article brings up an interesting point- it was the re-release of Titanic that pushed it over the $650M domestic mark. So my question is, will Disney put Infinity Wars (or any other MCU film) out in theaters before Avengers 4? Captain Marvel is being released 8 weeks before A4, so it’s possible any re-release could harm CM.

It's also possible a re-release could help it. Majority of experts believe that the release of IW helped Black Panther on those first couple weekends by a great deal.

 

[Princess Leia]

Another record toppled- Infinity War is now the 5th highest grossing picture at the domestic box office ($654 Million, just passed Jurassic World)