Avatar's first sequel delayed until late 2017

[LuvtheGoof]

The problem isn't if the rides will be successful or not, I'm sure AK will see a big spike in attendance. The problem is a possible loss (possible huge loss) in merchandising revenue. The impact won't be Avatarland, but future development.

If Disney has to rely on mostly park ticket sales because there is no new merchandise, the ROI on Avatarland may have just jumped from 5 years to 10 years.

Maybe, but there will still be some sort of merchandise that will sell regardless of the movie. I think Disney will do fine.

 

[NearTheEars]

Usually yes.

But the last thing needed is negative press for a new lands IP.

Agreed. People already planning on going to the parks may discover they the land is beautiful with two great attractions (hopefully). But if you were on the edge about coming to WDW and they just launched a land based on movie franchise with a sequel that bombed it might tip the scale in favor of staying home.

It also would hinder WDW PR from piggybacking on the film's success.

 

[twebber55]

Agreed. People already planning on going to the parks may discover they the land is beautiful with two great attractions (hopefully). But if you were on the edge about coming to WDW and they just launched a land based on movie franchise with a sequel that bombed it might tip the scale in favor of staying home.

It also would hinder WDW PR from piggybacking on the film's success.

lets be honest the chance of the highest grossing film's sequal bombing are about slim to none and none already left

the land was opening somewhere between 6-10 months before the movie was supposed to come out anyway, the movie getting pushed back means absolutely nothing, if the land is good it will be popular and bring in tons of people into DAK

 

[ford91exploder]

typically most if not all movies that are just one movie loses its luster

that was my next question what defines a flop? 1.4 billion?

i think a ton of people will want to return to Pandora
i also think that will be the big draw at DAK

A flop for a sequel is a sequel which does not gross as much as it's predecessor.

 

[britain]

A flop for a sequel is a sequel which does not gross as much as it's predecessor.

Right, like that Empire Strikes Back flick.

 

[twebber55]

A flop for a sequel is a sequel which does not gross as much as it's predecessor.

nonsense

 

[danlb_2000]

nonsense

Maybe, but you cannot deny that there will be unreasonable high expectations for it. We would probably consider it a success if it does over $1 billion world wide, but there are people who will call the a failure.

 

[twebber55]

Maybe, but you cannot deny that there will be unreasonable high expectations for it. We would probably consider it a success if it does over $1 billion world wide, but there are people who will call the a failure.

so The Force Awakens makes 2.1 Billion or so its an unmitigated success, but if Avatar 2 makes the same its a flop in some eyes
Come on!
thats not reality

 

[ford91exploder]

Maybe, but you cannot deny that there will be unreasonable high expectations for it. We would probably consider it a success if it does over $1 billion world wide, but there are people who will call the a failure.

Most importantly the 'Street will consider it a failure unless it at least equals Avatar's box office.

 

[ford91exploder]

so The Force Awakens makes 2.1 Billion or so its an unmitigated success, but if Avatar 2 makes the same its a flop in some eyes
Come on!
thats not reality

So far TFA has made 1.9, The 'Street wanted 2.5 by this time so in the view of the FINANCE guys yes TFA is a disappointment in their eyes.

 

[ford91exploder]

Maybe, but you cannot deny that there will be unreasonable high expectations for it. We would probably consider it a success if it does over $1 billion world wide, but there are people who will call the a failure.

The guys on Wall St I think you are referring to I believe.

 

[FigmentJedi]

Not sure how you would explain building floating mountains, flying banshees and a bioluminescent forest without an Avatar tie-in. And I'm pretty sure you don't scrap those projects after spending a few hundred million on them. I did not see the movie in theatres and have never been able to sit through the whole thing on TV but I think this land will be fascinating and I really look forward to it.

Truly cannot believe there are people living and breathing on this planet who believe these delays will affect the building of a multi-million dollar theme park land. Do you really think Disney is going to go "Whoops, this movie flopped, time to burn the land down!"? Really? What are y'all smoking?

I feel the opposite. Avatar's so derivative of other fantasy and science fiction, it'd be easy to transform into a version of Beastly Kingdom.

Get rid of the human barracks and create a medieval village in an enchanted forest. Turn the boat ride into either Fantasia or a dark ride version of the Unicorn maze.

"But what about the floating mountains? You can't separate that from Avatar." you might say. You find that sorta stuff in Roger Dean album covers and a billion video games, it'd be easy to redress. The Banshee ride becomes a Griffin rookery. Add a new Dragon E-Ticket off to the side and boom, you're done.

 

[danlb_2000]

so The Force Awakens makes 2.1 Billion or so its an unmitigated success, but if Avatar 2 makes the same its a flop in some eyes
Come on!
thats not reality

It may not be reality, but it would happen. Remember we are not talking about how good or bad the movie was, or what the general public things, but instead what the money people expect. If it doesn't meet their expectations then it's a disappointment.

 

[twebber55]

It may not be reality, but it would happen. Remember we are not talking about how good or bad the movie was, or what the general public things, but instead what the money people expect. If it doesn't meet their expectations then it's a disappointment.

i hope you take great comfort in agreeing with @ford91exploder LOL
first the word flop was used...
all im saying is im sure they are not thinking the next avatar will make 3 billion

 

[twebber55]

Right, like that Empire Strikes Back flick.

great point
Empire was a flop it didnt make as much as the original
sometimes i question the logic on this board

 

[twebber55]

Truly cannot believe there are people living and breathing on this planet who believe these delays will affect the building of a multi-million dollar theme park land. Do you really think Disney is going to go "Whoops, this movie flopped, time to burn the land down!"? Really? What are y'all smoking?

you do get some wacky theories on this board

 

[danlb_2000]

i hope you take great comfort in agreeing with @ford91exploder LOL
first the word flop was used...
all im saying is im sure they are not thinking the next avatar will make 3 billion

This is a rare case where I believe he is right.

 

[danlb_2000]

great point
Empire was a flop it didnt make as much as the original
sometimes i question the logic on this board

Logic doesn't enter in to this. We are talking about things like this:

"Apple said Tuesday its profit surged 38%, aided again by strong demand for the company’s latest iPhones and robust growth in China where sales more than doubled. The gains lifted Apple’s cash reserves to a record $203 billion.

But while Apple sold 35% more iPhones in the fiscal third quarter compared with a year earlier, those sales missed some analysts’ estimates. Apple also indicated its revenue in the current quarter could come in below Wall Street projections.

Within minutes of the earnings report, Apple’s shares fell as much as 7% in after-hours trading Tuesday, erasing about $60 billion in market value. Shares fell 5.2% in early trading Wednesday. "

Also, you will be dealing with the contingent of people who will look for any reason to declare Avatar II a failure.

 

[DManRightHere]

I don’t think there was really any “flinching” involved. Avatar 2 isn't in any kind of meaningful pre-production and the chance of it coming out for the holiday 2017 slot was getting smaller and smaller. Someone on Cameron's team likely straight up told someone on the Disney team “Hey, were going to vacate this release date” and they moved SW VIII in advance to claim that spot.

I thought the production company was in charge!

 

[Po'Rich]

But if you were on the edge about coming to WDW and they just launched a land based on movie franchise with a sequel that bombed it might tip the scale in favor of staying home.

Becuase the Tower of Terror movie kept people away from WDW and the namesake ride?