Avatar (the movie) and its Sequels

[TP2000]

Streaming Services are going to have to rapidly change the business model faster and more than Theaters will.

10 dollars or less for shared screens and log ins for big budget content is not goin to cut it.

Agreed. I just don't get how anyone was able to convince anyone at Disney more important than the General Manager of Tomorrowland Custodial that sending films with $200 Million production budgets to Disney+ for 8 bucks a month would ever recoup the investment.

It's never penciled out in my brain. Especially for the giant bloated budgets and giant bloated staffs they retain in Burbank to produce big budget films that barely break even at best lately.

How does the Disney+ shell game all end? The answer to that question seems ugly to me.

 

[CaptinEO]

Agreed. I just don't get how anyone was able to convince anyone at Disney more important than the General Manager of Tomorrowland Custodial that sending films with $200 Million production budgets to Disney+ for 8 bucks a month would ever recoup the investment.

It's never penciled out in my brain. Especially for the giant bloated budgets and giant bloated staffs they retain in Burbank to produce big budget films that barely break even at best lately.

How does the Disney+ shell game all end? The answer to that question seems ugly to me.

The promise of streaming having an unlimited amount of customers has finally shown itself to not be so promising.

HBO and Disney went all in on streaming and are not doing well and are in debt due to going all in on streaming. Disney will have to buy a significant portion of Hulu this year per a deal they made.

Netflix has operated at a loss for most of their existence. It amazed me that companies wanted to follow suit.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Just got home from the late showing. What an incredible, beautiful, and thrilling piece of cinema.

That 3 hours flew by.

Again, again! Let’s do it again!

 

[doctornick]

Streaming Services are going to have to rapidly change the business model faster and more than Theaters will.

10 dollars or less for shared screens and log ins for big budget content is not goin to cut it.

Absolutely. Anyone who thinks that sub-$10 (or even $15) monthly subscription rates is going to be a long term thing is being naïve. There's no way any service is going to be able to be consistently profitable at those kinds of rates. The low rates have always been about getting large amounts of subscriptions and familiarizing people with the services before jacking up the prices to a level where it can be profitable. The low rates were also about trying to grab so much market share that other competitors will be left behind and leave the crowded market so the remaining services can have larger presence.

I do think that there has been be a better management of the movie windows and how they end up on streaming. This plagues all studios, but Disney is hurt the most because they have generally had such massive box office numbers in recent years. There's no reason to rush films to streaming which cuts into the box office numbers.

 

[LSLS]

Absolutely. Anyone who thinks that sub-$10 (or even $15) monthly subscription rates is going to be a long term thing is being naïve. There's no way any service is going to be able to be consistently profitable at those kinds of rates. The low rates have always been about getting large amounts of subscriptions and familiarizing people with the services before jacking up the prices to a level where it can be profitable. The low rates were also about trying to grab so much market share that other competitors will be left behind and leave the crowded market so the remaining services can have larger presence.

I do think that there has been be a better management of the movie windows and how they end up on streaming. This plaques all studios, but Disney is hurt the most because they have generally had such massive box office numbers in recent years. There's no reason to rush films to streaming.

I disagree, I think the more likely scenario is you aren't going to see the big budget things going to streaming services. Part of this change was because younger generations found ways around paying insane prices for stuff they don't watch. If streaming services jack their prices up to crazy levels like cable was/is, that younger generation is going to find new ways around it. Streaming services would be smart to A.)Add commercials and B.)Not use high cost big budget CGI things for their services.

 

[doctornick]

I disagree, I think the more likely scenario is you aren't going to see the big budget things going to streaming services. Part of this change was because younger generations found ways around paying insane prices for stuff they don't watch. If streaming services jack their prices up to crazy levels like cable was/is, that younger generation is going to find new ways around it. Streaming services would be smart to A.)Add commercials and B.)Not use high cost big budget CGI things for their services.

While I would agree that we won't (or shouldn't) be seeing big budget films going to streaming directly like Soul, Turning Red, Luca, etc did, there absolutely is a need for big budget productions to be streaming originals. It's the Marvel and Star Wars content (and Stranger Things, Rings of Power, House of the Dragon, etc for other services) that bring subscribers in and retain them. A streamer is not going to last by just having a bunch of network TV quality shows as the main content, they need to big "must see" spectacle.

And prices are going up for streamers. It's inevitable. They aren't viable at $10-15/month.

 

[mickEblu]

So just found out from the employee here that the theatre I’m watching Avatar 2 in is the exact theatre James Cameron took his family to watch the movie this past Friday. Guess I’m watching it at the right place.

 

[_caleb]

So just found out from the employee here that the theatre I’m watching Avatar 2 in is the exact theatre James Cameron took his family to watch the movie this past Friday.

That's really cool!

Guess I’m watching it at the right place.

I guess that depends. Did he get up and storm out in the middle of the film, cursing and screaming something about variable frame rates and projector lumens?

 

[mickEblu]

That's really cool!

I guess that depends. Did he get up and storm out in the middle of the film, cursing and screaming something about variable frame rates and projector lumens?

She said something like they were tinkering with stuff for a few hours

 

[BrianLo]

How does the Disney+ shell game all end? The answer to that question seems ugly to me.

With higher prices.

D+ as a single entity is likely stronger than people's 100$ cable bills 20 years ago. You weren't getting early run (even more so theatrical premier) Disney movies on cable for that price.

The pricing boggles my mind, but I also don't think it's unreasonable that we will be looking at 20$ a month subscription fees in short order. The real issue is that they devalued their content to get there and it's going to be a painful ride for consumers to get back to logical pricing. For that the company is really paying it. I was shocked at how low D+ launched, it was quite under market Netflix.


One of the companies I sort of follow financially is Norwegian Cruise Line and the CEO keeps talking about how they are refusing to discount to fill. Because many operators did so during the 09 recession and it took them more than a decade to have price recovery. You ruin your product's perceived value when you start giving it away.

 

[TP2000]

One of the companies I sort of follow financially is Norwegian Cruise Line and the CEO keeps talking about how they are refusing to discount to fill. Because many operators did so during the 09 recession and it took them more than a decade to have price recovery. You ruin your product's perceived value when you start giving it away.

I come from a long line of proud Swedes, but that Norwegian is not stupid.

My fear is that the average exec in Burbank doesn't have the smarts nor the patience of the average Scandinavian fisherman.

 

[LittleBuford]

Cam talked to the dolphins. They said it was OK.

On a serious note, no-one should be making dolphins perform in such shows.

 

[DKampy]

On a serious note, no-one should be making dolphins perform in such shows.

This is why I will never set foot in Seaworld

 

[Slpy3270]

WoW is now at $600 million globally.

It also managed to outgross Black Adam's entire domestic run in 5 days. Somehow Sam Worthington is a bigger draw than the freaking Rock.

On a serious note, no-one should be making dolphins perform in such shows.

Every defense of SeaWorld makes me sick.

 

[Screamface]

WoW is now at $600 million globally.

It also managed to outgross Black Adam's entire domestic run in 5 days. Somehow Sam Worthington is a bigger draw than the freaking Rock.


Every defense of SeaWorld makes me sick.

Sshhhh it's meant to be a massive flop. Get on narrative. It needs to earn $2 billion to not bankrupt Disney.

 

[Phroobar]

WoW is now at $600 million globally.

It also managed to outgross Black Adam's entire domestic run in 5 days. Somehow Sam Worthington is a bigger draw than the freaking Rock.


Every defense of SeaWorld makes me sick.

I keep reading that as "World of Warcraft made $600 million globally."

I miss the old days of Sea World where they let that great white shark into the ski show lagoon.

and opened the under water King Triton's Kingdom walk through.

 

[Disney Irish]

$881M and counting with not much to stop it. It’s looking like it’ll possibly break $1B before next weekend.

 

[Slpy3270]

Well. Even in a winter storm A: WoW dipped only 52% to nab a $90 million 4-day weekend total.

 

[BubbaisSleep]

WoW is now at $600 million globally.

It also managed to outgross Black Adam's entire domestic run in 5 days. Somehow Sam Worthington is a bigger draw than the freaking Rock.

To be fair, I doubt many know who Sam is but many know who the Rock so they know to avoid those movies. Lol

 

[BrianLo]

The movie is starting to leg out well, Christmas Day came in quite a bit above estimates. If it runs out of steam it hits rogue one domestic numbers and settles somewhere into a respectable 500 million. If it starts pulling ahead (especially pertinent Jan 3 onwards) we see if it starts mimicking the first movie instead.

Rogue one doubles its domestic take as Star Wars is always a strong domestic play -(1 billion).

WoW triples with its international box office - (1.5 billion).

Then if we start seeing it domestically pull away over the holidays OR we see major international numbers like the first, we start talking multiples like 1.8, etc.