Avatar (the movie) and its Sequels

[BrianLo]

The movie is starting to leg out well, Christmas Day came in quite a bit above estimates. If it runs out of steam it hits rogue one domestic numbers and settles somewhere into a respectable 500 million. If it starts pulling ahead (especially pertinent Jan 3 onwards) we see if it starts mimicking the first movie instead.

Rogue one doubles its domestic take as Star Wars is always a strong domestic play -(1 billion).

WoW triples with its international box office - (1.5 billion).

Then if we start seeing it domestically pull away over the holidays OR we see major international numbers like the first, we start talking multiples like 1.8, etc.

 

[Ghost93]

Worldwide it has already grossed more than Black Panther and Thor: Love and Thunder. It should surpass Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Jurassic World Dominion by Wednesday or Thursday.

 

[Hakunamatata]

Worldwide it has already grossed more than Black Panther and Thor: Love and Thunder. It should surpass Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Jurassic World Dominion by Wednesday or Thursday.

Stick a fork in the franchise. Its obviously done.

 

[Slpy3270]

Even with A: WoW dominating this is looking to be one of the worst Christmas holiday seasons ever for films, not just because of blizzards and viruses. The first Avatar opened against Alvin & the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, The Blind Side, Sherlock Holmes and It's Complicated. All of those movies were big hits despite Avatar's legs (and similar blizzard conditions in 2009-10) because they were strong counter-programming.

Shifting consumer tastes and lack of interest for Babylon, I Wanna Dance With Somebody, and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (which Universal seems to be burying just as promo fodder for The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which they're almost certainly betting will be the first video game movie to cross $1 billion) is depressing any interest this season. Utterly devastating.

 

[_caleb]

I still don't understand peoples' reactions here. "Cinema releases are fine! We're almost back to pre-pandemic numbers!" and also, "Disney's hurting box office by releasing to streaming so quickly!" or "Why isn't Disney promoting movies like they used to?"

The answer is that Disney is doing it on purpose. And they've not been shy about it.

Disney made the decision to shift focus from theater releases to streaming years ago (before the launch of Disney+). And they've been pretty clear that they see direct-to-consumer as getting ahead of the changes to audience behavior (people just don't go to the movies like they used to) and that they're "cutting out the middle man."

I mean, Iger's been saying stuff like this for years:

Bob Iger on Wednesday reiterated that the movie theater business likely will never return to pre-pandemic levels. But that doesn’t mean movie theaters are a “dead business,” he said. It’s just “smaller.”

Bob Iger Says Movie Theaters Isn't a 'Dead Business'

The former Disney CEO says it's just "smaller"

www.thewrap.com

 

[Slpy3270]

Final 4-day weekend domestic total is $95.5 million, just below Rogue One's $96.1 million.

Worldwide gross now at $955.1 million. Crossing $1 billion this week a mere formality at this point.

 

[Phroobar]

WoW is still on a sharp rise compared to Wakanda Forever that at this point was starting to sag. They are about equal for the time period.

 

[doctornick]

What is the box office and movie situation in China like? I know there’s been substantial shutdowns there which would limit current BO, but if the movie stays in theaters longer term there (there’s no Disney+ and no reason from Disney’s prospective to pull it) and things open up, it wouldn’t surprise me if it still makes substantial bank there especially given the popularity of the original and probably even some thirst for Western films which have been limited.

 

[Phroobar]

What is the box office and movie situation in China like? I know there’s been substantial shutdowns there which would limit current BO, but if the movie stays in theaters longer term there (there’s no Disney+ and no reason from Disney’s prospective to pull it) and things open up, it wouldn’t surprise me if it still makes substantial bank there especially given the popularity of the original and probably even some thirst for Western films which have been limited.

Total box office for China is $104,260,000.

Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Ghost93]

What is the box office and movie situation in China like? I know there’s been substantial shutdowns there which would limit current BO, but if the movie stays in theaters longer term there (there’s no Disney+ and no reason from Disney’s prospective to pull it) and things open up, it wouldn’t surprise me if it still makes substantial bank there especially given the popularity of the original and probably even some thirst for Western films which have been limited.

Theaters are open, but the people there are much more scared about COVID due to them not having built up an immunity. They are about where America was in late 2020/early 2021.

Covid is probably costing Avatar $300-600 million in China.

 

[Disney Analyst]

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Tops $810M Overseas On Way To $1.3B+ Global Through Sunday

James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water continues to splash out at the global box office, reaching $1.169B through Thursday

deadline.com

Through Monday, the split is $293.2M domestic and $661.9M at the international box office. Internationally, Way of Water now stands as the No. 2 release of 2022 and No. 3 studio title of the pandemic era.

Midweeks last week were very strong, and the sci-fi epic is continuing that trend this week with vacations in full swing and a lot of holiday distractions in the rearview. France and Italy, for example, saw their best days of play on this week’s Monday since the film opened.

Monday’s total offshore haul was $52.2M, domestic’s was $31.5M.

The Top 5 overseas markets through Monday are China ($104.5M), France ($60.5M), Korea ($55.4M), Germany ($41.5M) and India ($39.2M).

On Tuesday, and not included in the totals above, the 20th Century Studios/Disney sci-fi epic rose to a running cume of $108.7M in China per local estimates. Ticketing service Maoyan has increased its projections again, now seeing a $170M final. In Korea, local estimates bring the cume through Tuesday to $58.2M.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

WoW is still on a sharp rise compared to Wakanda Forever that at this point was starting to sag. They are about equal for the time period.
View attachment 688074

FWIW, this is Domestic only. WoW has already nearly doubled Wakanda Forever internationally.

 

[Disney Irish]

While I don't think it'll hit $3B, that is a very lofty and probably unattainable goal. I do think it'll has very good potential to land between $1.9B - $2.3B when done, or more especially the way its currently going. Which would make it the number one movie this year, easily beating Maverick by as early as next weekend.

 

[TP2000]

What is the box office and movie situation in China like? I know there’s been substantial shutdowns there which would limit current BO, but if the movie stays in theaters longer term there (there’s no Disney+ and no reason from Disney’s prospective to pull it) and things open up, it wouldn’t surprise me if it still makes substantial bank there especially given the popularity of the original and probably even some thirst for Western films which have been limited.

Theaters are open, but the people there are much more scared about COVID due to them not having built up an immunity. They are about where America was in late 2020/early 2021.

Covid is probably costing Avatar $300-600 million in China.

The China situation is bizarre, and I've read a couple articles the past day or so about how/why Avatar 2 is bombing in China.

It's a real mess over there. They had no Operation Warp Speed and the Chinese-made vaccines they do have are less effective than ours, plus the heavy handed government lockdowns and closures they dealt with nationwide kept the population from building immunity.

But there's also a political issue where the Communist Politburo isn't allowing Hollywood movies to be shown there for the most part. Avatar 2 was a rare exception, but it's just falling very flat with audiences there for the reasons above and perhaps just a lack of interest in a film few of them saw in 2009. Back in 2009, China accounted for only $265 Million of Avatar's global box office of $2.9 Billion.

Avatar 2 is tracking not far from that $265 Million from 13 years ago, but is being held back by Covid closures and a panicked populace.

Communist China is just a real mess now. And Hollywood as a whole is adapting quickly to not rely on them as much as they did just a couple years ago. John Cena is probably kicking himself over spending all that time and money to learn how to grovel in Mandarin.

'Avatar 2' Bombs in China - but Otherwise Soars to $661 Million Global Box Office | Chart - TheWrap

James Cameron's "The Way of Water" continues the pattern of Hollywood blockbusters - but not Chinese tentpoles - struggling in the Middle Kingdom

www.thewrap.com

 

[Disney Analyst]

The China situation is bizarre, and I've read a couple articles the past day or so about how/why Avatar 2 is bombing in China.

It's a real mess over there. They had no Operation Warp Speed and the Chinese-made vaccines they do have are less effective than ours, plus the heavy handed government lockdowns and closures they dealt with nationwide kept the population from building immunity.

But there's also a political issue where the Communist Politburo isn't allowing Hollywood movies to be shown there for the most part. Avatar 2 was a rare exception, but it's just falling very flat with audiences there for the reasons above and perhaps just a lack of interest in a film few of them saw in 2009. Back in 2009, China accounted for only $265 Million of Avatar's global box office of $2.9 Billion.

Avatar 2 is tracking not far from that $265 Million from 13 years ago, but is being held back by Covid closures and a panicked populace.

Communist China is just a real mess now. And Hollywood as a whole is adapting quickly to not rely on them as much as they did just a couple years ago. John Cena is probably kicking himself over spending all that time and money to learn how to grovel in Mandarin.

'Avatar 2' Bombs in China - but Otherwise Soars to $661 Million Global Box Office | Chart - TheWrap

James Cameron's "The Way of Water" continues the pattern of Hollywood blockbusters - but not Chinese tentpoles - struggling in the Middle Kingdom

www.thewrap.com

Honestly… anything that makes the western world less dependent on China is a win in my book.

 

[doctornick]

Maybe I’m missing something but $100M already in China seems like a win given the state of things there. If things improve health wise in upcoming weeks or even months, that should really pick up and could certainly get to something like $350-400M which would be more than the original film. I mean, sure, the box office has certainly been undercut there but it’s got time to do fine given it is likely to be “leggy”.

I guess I’m confused by any talk of this film underperforming in general. Seems like it’s doing very well and has minimal competition ahead.

 

[Hakunamatata]

I wonder how much of the developmental cost for the new tech that was created was tied to WoW. The third film which has already been shot could be alot more profitable given developmental costs for new tech could be lower.

 

[Ghost93]

I wonder how much of the developmental cost for the new tech that was created was tied to WoW. The third film which has already been shot could be alot more profitable given developmental costs for new tech could be lower.

The development of new technology could be part of the problem.

One of the reasons Tangled had an absurd $260 million budget was that new tech was developed for the 3D animation. Subsequent Disney movies with a similar look, like Frozen, could be made much cheaper since Tangled already led to the technology's creation.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Maybe I’m missing something but $100M already in China seems like a win given the state of things there. If things improve health wise in upcoming weeks or even months, that should really pick up and could certainly get to something like $350-400M which would be more than the original film. I mean, sure, the box office has certainly been undercut there but it’s got time to do fine given it is likely to be “leggy”.

I guess I’m confused by any talk of this film underperforming in general. Seems like it’s doing very well and has minimal competition ahead.

I sort of felt the same way; but I know nothing of the market in China. I was impressed it crossed into the 100mil category given the recent end of the zero covid policy.

 

[Disney Analyst]