Attendance drop in the parks... I wonder why

[larryz]

Back in the middle ages we always had to wait for a refund, sometimes for months. All refunds were hard checks and it took time to print that many. Taxes were reviewed and approved and then sent to someplace in a basement under the FBI building probably, and eventually a check was cut and snail mailed to your home.

Heck, I remember getting my refund in shot, powder and hard tack...

 

[larryz]

Cameron has announced plans for four sequels. Whether they will be "soon" or not is a matter of opinion.

I'm still waiting for the sequel to "Titanic"...

 

[21stamps]

FUD = fear, uncertainty and doubt. Breaking that down, there's nothing uncertain or doubtful about the refund delay I referenced, documented for you by several other posters. And neither I, you, nor many others appear to be afraid of it. So there has been NO -- exactly ZERO -- "FUD" associated with my comment.

People need to stop with the hyperbole around here.

Do you think that would really have an impact on a Disney vacation though? Are people who are in a low enough tax bracket to receive an earned income credit tax refund actually booking a WDW vacation?

 

[larryz]

I know people that spent $7000 and flew from England to ride the Potter rides. And people will do the same when SWE opens. They love Potter and Star Wars that much.

Avatar, not so much.

And a lot of folks buy 1 Day, 1 Park admission media.

I think we all know how it went the last time WDW "leased" an IP as the base of an attraction... think MGM here...

 

[Grimley1968]

Do you think that would really have an impact on a Disney vacation though? Are people who are in a low enough tax bracket to receive an earned income credit tax refund actually booking a WDW vacation?

People of just about any tax bracket can get refunds. It's all in how one chooses to structure withholdings, pay estimated taxes, etc. Not that I'd advise overpaying taxes throughout the year, but some people have little choice but to overpay and then get a large enough refund to significantly help finance a vacation.

As has been noted, delaying refunds by a few weeks could change the plans of those who do this and plan to go around spring break time, thereby reducing WDW attendance a little (probably very little, though).

 

[larryz]

Do you think that would really have an impact on a Disney vacation though? Are people who are in a low enough tax bracket to receive an earned income credit tax refund actually booking a WDW vacation?

Out of deference to @The Mom I have retracted that statement (the one you quoted) and will not continue that discussion. My response is that there are some who rely on their tax refunds, including EIC monies, who plan on using that money to fund a WDW vacation. Based on the recent development, I sincerely hope they didn't plan on getting that money prior to mid-February to make a payment deadline.

 

[Ralphlaw]

I think people fund Disney vacations by jacking up their credit cards, not by having money in the bank to actually pay for it.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Ok so you were the adult fan base, buying the toys and merchandise for the kid fans.lol. I still have the original millennium falcon passed down from my brother. They just don't make them like that anymore!

Back on topic of attendance, I think when SW land is complete WDW will see the greatest spike of many years. I don't think Avatar will have as huge of a draw. I say enjoy WDW now before those fans make their decent.

I agree that discussing attendance drops now is already a moot point. The SWE will be open long before we can all agree on whether the build timeline was too long.

Yes, we saw shockingly low attendance on historically busy days like the 4th of July and the Holiday season. We also know that Disney intentionally spiked the high season prices to "encourage" low season travel. It will be interesting to see what the numbers look like this year.

I'm excited to see Pandora. I'm pretty sure I'll be grinnin' like the Cheshire Cat on my first visit. I'm a huge theme park fan, and I'm giddy to see the world's first billion $$$$ theme park land.

I just don't think Pandora is going to move the needle much in grand scheme of things.

I hate to say it, but TSL will probably get more "Look! I'm at Disneyworld!" Instagram selfies.

 

[pax_65]

Avatar as a movie is probably not a crowd-drawing IP. HP, Star Wars, Pixar, and the Disney Characters are.

Again, I agree that HP, Star Wars, Pixar and Disney (especially princesses) are a bigger draw but I still think you're underestimating Avatar a bit.

Highest-Grossing Films in History (overall)

1. Avatar
2. Titanic
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Jurassic World
5. The Avengers

Highest-Grossing Films (Adjusted for Inflation)

1. Gone With the Wind
2. Avatar
3. Star Wars
4. Titanic
5. The Sound of Music

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films

 

[Laketravis]

People of just about any tax bracket can get refunds. It's all in how one chooses to structure withholdings, pay estimated taxes, etc. Not that I'd advise overpaying taxes throughout the year, but some people have little choice but to overpay and then get a large enough refund to significantly help finance a vacation.

As has been noted, delaying refunds by a few weeks could change the plans of those who do this and plan to go around spring break time, thereby reducing WDW attendance a little (probably very little, though).

My bet is the lower down the economic ladder one is, the more one would be counting on and using a tax refund/credit to pay for a WDW vacation. Or to pay off the credit card it was charged to. Or bail money, in the event funds were procured in some other non-conventional manner

According to some on this thread, the drop in attendance is due to a decrease in affordability. I could see how that and the delay of a tax refund/credit could be a double whammy for some.

 

[networkpro]

People in all tax brackets do not get the Earned Income credit, and the resulting refund from it. That is for the lowest bracket in this country. That's why I specifically asked if those people would actually be booking $3k+ vacations.
Maybe going to Disney for a day. But actual WDW trips? I don't know.
They are the only ones who are having their refunds delayed. "In an effort to prevent tax fraud.."

Earned income tax credit is a misnomer, if you actually earned it, it would show up in your paycheck.

 

[Ralphlaw]

Again, I agree that HP, Star Wars, Pixar and Disney (especially princesses) are a bigger draw but I still think you're underestimating Avatar a bit.

Highest-Grossing Films in History (overall)

1. Avatar
2. Titanic
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Jurassic World
5. The Avengers

Highest-Grossing Films (Adjusted for Inflation)

1. Gone With the Wind
2. Avatar
3. Star Wars
4. Titanic
5. The Sound of Music

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films

True, but it was a single movie, and I can't remember a single character's name, or recall seeing a single piece of merchandise for it. Avatar just never generated much of a rabid fan base. Star Wars had 8 movies, all of which were popular, and followed rabidly. And unlike HP, there aren't many people reading books on Avatar either, and the story itself is not very compelling.

But again, we are somewhat off topic. On a tangent, HP is one reason people go to Universal instead of Disney, yet most people predict that Disney will have a huge uptick in business once Avatarland and Star Wars land open. Star Wars has appeal in and of itself, but Avatar at this point probably does not. If it's an incredible experience, it will be popular, but the name of Avatar in and of itself will probably not generate much excitement unless more movies are made (and they're popular).

Years ago, when HP and Lord of the Rings were bandied about on these boards, the Chronicles of Narnia were kind of argued to be sort of maybe equivalent to HP or Lord of the Rings. Disney stuck a lot into that franchise, and it isn't nearly as popular as they probably hoped. Oh well. Some have it and some don't.

 

[Goofyernmost]

People of just about any tax bracket can get refunds. It's all in how one chooses to structure withholdings, pay estimated taxes, etc. Not that I'd advise overpaying taxes throughout the year, but some people have little choice but to overpay and then get a large enough refund to significantly help finance a vacation.

As has been noted, delaying refunds by a few weeks could change the plans of those who do this and plan to go around spring break time, thereby reducing WDW attendance a little (probably very little, though).

Well, actually they do have a choice. They can take the same money, put, it in a savings account, earn interest and have even more money to use on vacation. If they are able to live without that cash that the government is hanging onto, they can live with it in an interest earning account. It's not a matter of choice, it's a matter of ability to have any self control. Typical refusal to accept responsibility for themselves. If you say that they would need the money to pay other bills, then we have to question whether or not they should be spending money on a Disney vacation. They must still have some bills to pay. However, that said, the government is probably doing quite will babysitting, using, buying $10,000.00 toilet seats, and then giving it back interest free. I wish I had that racket going on.

 

[Otterhead]

If it's an incredible experience, it will be popular, but the name of Avatar in and of itself will probably not generate much excitement

The land and all of the marketing around it that I've seen so far has used the name Pandora and downplays Avatar, most likely for the reason mentioned earlier (avoiding any confusion with the cartoon and terrible movie of The Last Airbender).

 

[Chef Mickey]

To the bolded: wow. That's a breathtaking attitude.

It's not an attitude...it's a fact. Disney isn't set up for you to just do one thing and leave for $25 or $50. Even at $100, you're running in to ride a $100m attraction. They want you to stay a while because they have enormous fixed costs and need guest spend at a reasonable amount to make any money. Remember, Disney Parks are right around 20% operating margin (Spoiler: that's not a lot).

 

[Grimley1968]

It's not an attitude...it's a fact. Disney isn't set up for you to just do one thing and leave for $25 or $50. Even at $100, you're running in to ride a $100m attraction. They want you to stay a while because they have enormous fixed costs and need guest spend at a reasonable amount to make any money. Remember, Disney Parks are right around 20% operating margin (Spoiler: that's not a lot).

After 50+ trips to WDW dating back to 1972, in all seasons, at all levels of WDW resorts and offsite locations, single day trips coming from the beach (like in December), weeklong stays, going all the way from ticket books to the FP+ era, I think I've figured out the best way to go to WDW given the circumstances of specific trips for my family. But I sure appreciate the lecture!

 

[21stamps]

Well, actually they do have a choice. They can take the same money, put, it in a savings account, earn interest and have even more money to use on vacation. If they are able to live without that cash that the government is hanging onto, they can live with it in an interest earning account. It's not a matter of choice, it's a matter of ability to have any self control. Typical refusal to accept responsibility for themselves. If you say that they would need the money to pay other bills, then we have to question whether or not they should be spending money on a Disney vacation. They must still have some bills to pay. However, that said, the government is probably doing quite will babysitting, using, buying $10,000.00 toilet seats, and then giving it back interest free. I wish I had that racket going on.

Agree. But in relation to the "people not able to make final payment" that others are referring to. I think the person you quoted, and a few others, are confused about who the delay is for. It's only a very very small segment of Americans that this delay will have an impact on. Americans in the lowest income bracket in this country, who receive govt assistance, which is also what the EIC and Additional Child Tax Credit are. They are getting back more than they pay in.
Like @networkpro said, the term itself is a misnomer. I can't see this having an impact on WDW resort cancellations.

 

[larryz]

Well, actually they do have a choice. They can take the same money, put, it in a savings account, earn interest and have even more money to use on vacation. If they are able to live without that cash that the government is hanging onto, they can live with it in an interest earning account. It's not a matter of choice, it's a matter of ability to have any self control. Typical refusal to accept responsibility for themselves. If you say that they would need the money to pay other bills, then we have to question whether or not they should be spending money on a Disney vacation. They must still have some bills to pay.

If they had self control, they probably wouldn't be going to WDW every year...

 

[Goofyernmost]

If they had self control, they probably wouldn't be going to WDW every year...

Yea, that was sort of my point as well. I don't want to judge, but, based on just personal experience, if one has to wait for that refund to go on a trip it seems like they are cutting things awfully close to the bone. When I was young, which is a long ways back to remember. Things were always coming up that used up the money, so we kind of, like we said, used the IRS as a savings account that we couldn't get to and the bulk check paid for many things, but, I don't remember ever using it for vacations! I always had a line of credit that I could use if the refund took longer then expected. However, like what was mentioned, this will affect those that are at the lowest end of the income spectrum and those not likely to be heading to Florida for a vacation anyway.

 

[Laketravis]

After 17 pages of speculation offered by those who continue to go to WDW about why others don't, this thread doesn't seem to be going anywhere other than frequent and extreme tangents.

So as someone who religiously went to WDW several times every year but skipped 2016 in it's entirety and am therefore a member of the group contributing to the decline, I'll leave you with this: The reason we didn't go was due to having to pay much more for much less. It's as simple as that. No, it had nothing to do with whether or not we could afford it. Yes, it had everything to do with our expectations in regards to the level of return for the costs involved. No, we didn't spend more on extravagant vacations in lieu of Disney, we spent about the same but experienced more. We will wait it out and enjoy other destinations, returning to WDW when some sort of equilibrium in value is restored. Until then we'll be part of the group others wonder why stopped going.