Attendance drop in the parks... I wonder why

[SorcererMC]

My theory is is that there isn't an infinite amount of people who are prepared to pay the price for a Florida holiday every year, and on top of the well documented Orlando problems last year....

a higher proportion of the 'once every 2 or 3 year' crowd made it over for the opening of Diagon Ally in 2014 and 2015. Don't underestimate the hype of that land...the marketing push was epic. It was in pretty much every paper in the UK, all over social media. It made people want to go.

In my friend base and wider circle of their family/friends I've never known as many people go as went in 2015 from the UK. Possibly related, but also the overwealming feeling was they left surprised by the quality of Universal, and disappointed with aspects of Disney. On a semi related note, DHS gets panned on here but it's many infrequent visitors' favourite Disney park.

You are quite right about the 2014-15 bump from UK visitors to Florida - an additional 100,000 visitors each year from 2013 (1.6 mln in 2014 and 1.7 mln in 2015), with increased combined spending of ~$800 mln. I'm very curious to see what kind of impact Brexit may have had on the 2016 numbers or how visitation could change going forward (ie, especially if they are returning for Harry Potter).

 

[UpAllNight]

You are quite right about the 2014-15 bump from UK visitors to Florida - an additional 100,000 visitors each year from 2013 (1.6 mln in 2014 and 1.7 mln in 2015), with increased combined spending of ~$800 mln. I'm very curious to see what kind of impact Brexit may have had on the 2016 numbers or how visitation could change going forward (ie, especially if they are returning for Harry Potter).

Whilst U.K Numbers are small compared to the overall attendance in Orlando, I wonder if the same picture was reflected in US guests too. I honestly put it down to Diagon. It's what made me book in 2014 for a 2015 trip after a fairly long time without visiting.

 

[SorcererMC]

Whilst U.K Numbers are small compared to the overall attendance in Orlando, I wonder if the same picture was reflected in US guests too. I honestly put it down to Diagon. It's what made me book in 2014 for a 2015 trip after a fairly long time without visiting.

In a nutshell, yes. Domestic volume increased by 4.4 mln in 2014 and again in 2015 by 6.6 mln. The increase in domestic volume compensated for the 2015 decrease in intl tourists (Brazilian and Canadian visitation down in 2015). The majority of visitors (whether domestic, overseas, or international), ~70% will return....while 2017 is uncertain, 2018+ should be rather exciting with the new additions in Orlando.

Keep in mind this is for all of Florida - it's a little crude to extrapolate it to Orlando (and to WDW in particular), but it is the best and most recent data available as far as the overall trends (IMO).

 

[Laketravis]

I personally observed a lot of visitors wearing WDW Magic Bands while standing in the queues at USO throughout 2015. What an interesting perspective of what may have actually been the draw to Orlando with WDW simply being a beneficiary.

Whilst U.K Numbers are small compared to the overall attendance in Orlando, I wonder if the same picture was reflected in US guests too. I honestly put it down to Diagon. It's what made me book in 2014 for a 2015 trip after a fairly long time without visiting.

In a nutshell, yes. Domestic volume increased by 4.4 mln in 2014 and again in 2015 by 6.6 mln. The increase in domestic volume compensated for the 2015 decrease in intl tourists (Brazilian and Canadian visitation down in 2015). The majority of visitors (whether domestic, overseas, or international), ~70% will return....while 2017 is uncertain, 2018+ should be rather exciting with the new additions in Orlando.

Keep in mind this is for all of Florida - it's a little crude to extrapolate it to Orlando (and to WDW in particular), but it is the best and most recent data available as far as the overall trends (IMO).

 

[IanDLBZF]

I personally observed a lot of visitors wearing WDW Magic Bands while standing in the queues at USO throughout 2015. What an interesting perspective of what may have actually been the draw to Orlando with WDW simply being a beneficiary.

UK or Brazilian visitors for the most part I'd assume?

 

[Laketravis]

UK or Brazilian visitors for the most part I'd assume?

Definitely many Brazilians donning a Magic Band while at USO, can't say for sure about UK unless I heard them speaking and picked up on the accent. But it was surprising to me at the time - one week in January, two weeks in March, two more weeks in June - how many people didn't take of their WDW bands while at USO. And there were a lot.

 

[UpAllNight]

You are quite right about the 2014-15 bump from UK visitors to Florida - an additional 100,000 visitors each year from 2013 (1.6 mln in 2014 and 1.7 mln in 2015), with increased combined spending of ~$800 mln. I'm very curious to see what kind of impact Brexit may have had on the 2016 numbers or how visitation could change going forward (ie, especially if they are returning for Harry Potter).

Regarding 2016 from UK visitors it's a complex one really.

Brits love a holiday and that won't probably ever change. On one side the pound to dollar isn't great, but on the other the pound to euro is probably even worse. Also typically cheaper destinations such as Tunisia, Egypt, Morroco, Turkey are out of the equation for many due to terrorism fears, pushing up the price of other favourites like Spain and Portugual. Sotheby's difference between a cheap European holiday and a trip to Florida, without the statistics to back it up, I imagine has been greatly reduced.

Also they are marketing BIG over here in the UK on Tv and Cinema. Visit Orlando ads on all the time, Universal ads on none stop, same for Disney.

 

[SorcererMC]

Regarding 2016 from UK visitors it's a complex one really.

Brits love a holiday and that won't probably ever change. On one side the pound to dollar isn't great, but on the other the pound to euro is probably even worse. Also typically cheaper destinations such as Tunisia, Egypt, Morroco, Turkey are out of the equation for many due to terrorism fears, pushing up the price of other favourites like Spain and Portugual. Sotheby's difference between a cheap European holiday and a trip to Florida, without the statistics to back it up, I imagine has been greatly reduced.

Also they are marketing BIG over here in the UK on Tv and Cinema. Visit Orlando ads on all the time, Universal ads on none stop, same for Disney.

Your assertions are consistent with what I've seen, on the subject of the economic impact of security and other geopolitical events on tourism. I want to emphasize your point that the reality is complex (ie measuring those qualitative demand factors combined with the destination's price effects, marketing strategy, etc.). Florida is an interesting study in resilience (as of yet/ lagged demand decline is possible); other tourism destinations facing similar issues would want to use a strategy that duplicates their results.

 

[Otterhead]

I personally observed a lot of visitors wearing WDW Magic Bands while standing in the queues at USO throughout 2015.

I'm actually surprised that Universal doesn't market more to WDW guests, offering some kind of easy shuttle system or ways to entice Disney guests over there for the day. For people staying on-property without cars, it's pretty pricey to Uber over there, get tickets, etc. There were four people in my party this last trip who wanted to check out Diagon Alley (heck, so do I) but when they added up the transportation and ticket costs for just one day at USO, plus the hassle of getting there, they decided to save several hundred dollars.

 

[Bandini]

I'm actually surprised that Universal doesn't market more to WDW guests, offering some kind of easy shuttle system or ways to entice Disney guests over there for the day. For people staying on-property without cars, it's pretty pricey to Uber over there, get tickets, etc. There were four people in my party this last trip who wanted to check out Diagon Alley (heck, so do I) but when they added up the transportation and ticket costs for just one day at USO, plus the hassle of getting there, they decided to save several hundred dollars.

Universal does offer shuttles from the WDW resorts to Universal.
http://www.universalfamilyvacations.com/how-to-get-from-disney-to-universal/

It's still expensive. The cheapest way to do it would be to rent a car for the day.

 

[parkhopper1213]

Disney should be able to figure this out. They have people surveying guests all of the time.

In my opinion, attendance may be down for one big reason. Value. Most working class people like to think they are getting a good deal for their hard earned money and time.

 

[The Mom]

People, please take a moment to ask yourselves if something is going to contribute to a discussion, or is it going to derail it, before hitting reply. If you are just replying to start/continue an argument, please don't bother. Thank you. If you wonder if someone will take something the wrong way- the answer is usually yes.

 

[Tk0021]

My family took our first trip to WDW in June 2016 and it was not as busy as we heard it would be. We were able to ride many attractions and sometimes walk on with no to very little wait.

We also only plan to go to WDW for a few more years while my girls are young (5 and 3) and it's still magical. After that we are planning to take other vacations.

We have friends that just bought into DVC and they keep trying to get us to, but I don't want to be tied to Disney for that many years.

 

[Ralphlaw]

I think Disney is still kicking itself for not getting the Harry Potter rights. Instead we will some day get Avatarland (presumably within the next 10 or so years) and that movie is already very dated. Believe it or not, I watched Avatar for the first time this week, and I was not impressed. Cool special effects, decent idea, but lame story when everything is said and done. Outside modern guy goes native and fights the nasty military guy. Gee, never heard that story before outside of Dances With Wolves and a couple dozen other movies influenced by Heart of Darkness.

Meanwhile, Harry Potter has the staying power that will actually draw people in from overseas for decades. Were Rowlings' demands really that onerous, or was Disney a bit arrogant. Numerous postings and threads years ago debated where Harry Potter would have fit best at Disney, and the answer was this: ANYWHERE. MK is magical, Epcot has the UK pavilion, Studios needed more and would make it fit, and Animal Kingdom could have focused on dragons, hippogriffs, owls and the phoenix. Heck, mix it up, with Dragons at AK and Diagon Alley at Epcot.

"Avatar" as a draw cannot compare to "Harry Potter". It's like settling for Battlestar Galactica instead of Star Wars. Major missed opportunity, and Universal is reaping the rewards. It ranks right up there with the Falcons trading away Favre for some forgotten draft choice. That happened 25 years ago, and finally the Falcons are getting their revenge.

 

[Otterhead]

"Avatar" as a draw cannot compare to "Harry Potter".

However, Avatar is still, in terms of box office, the single biggest movie ever made. And there's four sequels coming soon. So while it's seemingly weird timing for a ten-year-old blockbuster to get its own land, I'm very optimistic that they've got something special in the works with a fan base who'll want to see it.

 

[Ralphlaw]

Lets hope so.

 

[L.C. Clench]

However, Avatar is still, in terms of box office, the single biggest movie ever made. And there's four sequels coming soon. So while it's seemingly weird timing for a ten-year-old blockbuster to get its own land, I'm very optimistic that they've got something special in the works with a fan base who'll want to see it.

It does hold records but how often did you hear people say they loved it for the story? It drew because of the imagery and 3D effects which really aren't unusual anymore since 3D is almost a standard offering now. I think it can still be successful but I don't suspect it's going to draw people in the same volumes for the same periods of time.

Disney does however have a tremendous opportunity with Star Wars but they've already taken one easy way out on it by making it a "new land" so they aren't dealing with expectations people would have of locations they know from the movies. Toy Story concept art has already shown massively neutered areas so it will be interested to see if they really want to build an amazing area of continue with the Rizzo philosophy.

 

[Grimley1968]

I think Disney is still kicking itself for not getting the Harry Potter rights. Instead we will some day get Avatarland (presumably within the next 10 or so years) and that movie is already very dated. Believe it or not, I watched Avatar for the first time this week, and I was not impressed. Cool special effects, decent idea, but lame story when everything is said and done. Outside modern guy goes native and fights the nasty military guy. Gee, never heard that story before outside of Dances With Wolves and a couple dozen other movies influenced by Heart of Darkness.

Meanwhile, Harry Potter has the staying power that will actually draw people in from overseas for decades. Were Rowlings' demands really that onerous, or was Disney a bit arrogant. Numerous postings and threads years ago debated where Harry Potter would have fit best at Disney, and the answer was this: ANYWHERE. MK is magical, Epcot has the UK pavilion, Studios needed more and would make it fit, and Animal Kingdom could have focused on dragons, hippogriffs, owls and the phoenix. Heck, mix it up, with Dragons at AK and Diagon Alley at Epcot.

"Avatar" as a draw cannot compare to "Harry Potter". It's like settling for Battlestar Galactica instead of Star Wars. Major missed opportunity, and Universal is reaping the rewards. It ranks right up there with the Falcons trading away Favre for some forgotten draft choice. That happened 25 years ago, and finally the Falcons are getting their revenge.

On other boards and occasionally from the lips of Disney CM's themselves, I used to read/hear that Disney sort of welcomed people coming to Orlando ostensibly for a Universal vacation. They reasoning was that since they had such a much bigger presence than Universal, that some of those Universal fans would come to Disney parks at least one or two days of that week, thereby gaining a Disney visitor that might not otherwise have come, while Disney attendance would keep growing.

I don't buy that reasoning, and think it displays a little of the arrogance you mentioned. I have to admit, I probably did buy that reasoning a decade or so ago, or before HP stuff started going into Universal.

Now that Universal seems to be the innovative presence there and Disney is at best stagnant in their present offerings, I think they have to be regretting not going after HP, but also their arrogance in re HP and also in investing billions in essentially a (IMO very flawed) ride-rationing system when they already had a great one, versus simply adding attractions. Universal seems to have the parks where nostalgia is being built among young people and will keep them coming back when they have their own kids, while Disney is trying to squeeze every last penny out of a decreasing number of guests, and riding on fading nostalgia to bring back aging parents who swear to their kids that it used to be so much better.

I hope Avatar begins to turn around Disney's long slide, but if the rides in that area are of the same caliber as Under the Sea, Finding Nemo, Frozen Ever After, etc. I have my doubts, to say the least. And if Disney builds stuff like that and/or just simulators for Star Wars, who knows how bad things will get then.

 

[Bandini]

Were Rowlings' demands really that onerous, or was Disney a bit arrogant. Numerous postings and threads years ago debated where Harry Potter would have fit best at Disney, and the answer was this: ANYWHERE. MK is magical, Epcot has the UK pavilion, Studios needed more and would make it fit, and Animal Kingdom could have focused on dragons, hippogriffs, owls and the phoenix. Heck, mix it up, with Dragons at AK and Diagon Alley at Epcot.

Personally, I think Disney was too arrogant. Harry Potter is going to become a children's classic. I've heard a lot of parents say that they can't wait until their kids are old enough to read the Harry Potter Series.
Avatarland is based on a movie with a pretty weak plot. On the other hand, Rowling is a master storyteller. Her books are so full of wonderful detail that it's pretty much a no brainer for Universal to keep expanding this area of the park. Universal could build a new Harry Potter theme park and never run out of HP material or an audience to lap it up.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Im sure they're sitting in a board meeting going "gee, I sure do wish people would stop coming to the parks today."

I guarantee you they are if:

1) They are getting a lot of guest feedback complaining about crowds in the parks.
2) They can increase pricing and relieve some of the crowd pressure without losing much revenue.

You are mistaken if you think Disney just doesn't worry about overcrowding and will just drive attendance higher to no end. Guest satisfaction very important and they do want you to come back. I understand they want big crowds but there is a point where guest satisfaction takes a hit and that is a concern they take seriously.